Gray will look to build on first start

Week 4 brings another busy slate that will result in several projected two-start pitchers. Weather has caused some complications lately, so things could change if we continue to get more postponements. However, as things currently stand, let’s discuss the following five starters who are expected to take the mound two times each.

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies: vs. COL, vs. CWS

Nola didn’t make it through his season opener against the loaded Braves lineup unscathed. He lasted only 4 1/3 innings, allowing seven runs (six earned), 11 hits and two home runs. However, he has rebounded nicely in his last two outings. First, he threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the Nationals. Then he limited the Cardinals to two runs over six innings in his last outing.

As far as favorable matchups go, it doesn’t get much better than this for Nola. The Rockies are always dangerous at Coors Field, but Nola will face them in Philadelphia. Last season, the Rockies had a .650 OPS on the road. His second start will come against a White Sox team that has only scored 29 runs over 12 games. Look for Nola to significantly improve his stats during this stretch.

Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals: at OAK, vs. MIL

The Cardinals signed Gray during the offseason following his two excellent seasons with the Twins. However, a hamstring injury landed him on the IL before the season began. There was some belief that he would need at least one rehab outing to build up his pitch count, but after one simulated game in which he threw 54 pitches, he made his season debut versus the Phillies on Tuesday. He certainly didn’t look rusty, recording five strikeouts over five scoreless innings.

Gray threw 64 pitches against the Phillies, so he should be able to get up to at least 75 pitches in his first start of Week 4 against the Athletics. They have been nearly as bad as the White Sox, scoring 37 runs over 13 games. The Brewers have a more dangerous lineup, but there’s no reason to bench Gray this week.

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians: at BOS, vs. OAK

After posting a 2.98 ERA and a 3.52 FIP over 25 starts this season, Bibee entered this year with high expectations. The early results haven’t been great, though. In his last outing, he gave up five runs over 4 1/3 innings to the White Sox. In his first start of the year, he gave up three runs over six innings against the Athletics in Oakland. Given how bad both teams have been offensively, those performances feel even worse for Bibee.

Part of the problem for Bibee is that he has allowed a 14.6 percent barrel rate. Last season, that mark finished at 6.1 percent. Better days are likely on the horizon, but should fantasy managers feel comfortable about rolling with him this week? The Red Sox at Fenway Park is never easy, but getting the Athletics again is a favorable matchup. Fantasy managers in 12-team or deeper leagues should continue to roll with Bibee in their starting lineups.

Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs: at ARI, vs. MIA

If Hendricks is going to be successful, he needs to have command and induce weak contact. He’s certainly not missing many bats, given his career 19.6 percent strikeout rate. So far this season, he has a 6.1 percent walk rate and has allowed a 9.3 percent barrel rate. The result has been him giving up 17 runs over 12 2/3 innings.

Hendricks’ second start of the week is a favorable matchup versus the Marlins, who have scored just 47 runs over 13 games. However, his first start against the Diamondbacks could be a disaster. They don’t strike out much and have scored the third-most runs in baseball. As good as the matchup against the Marlins is, the Diamondbacks could do so much damage in Hendricks’ first outing that his ratios could still hurt fantasy managers.

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals: at CWS, vs. BAL

After mostly pitching in relief during his tenure with the Mets, Lugo made the move to the starting rotation last season for the Padres. He did so seamlessly, finishing with a 3.57 ERA and a 3.83 FIP. While he didn’t miss a ton of bats, he gave up just 1.2 HR/9 and posted a 1.20 WHIP. Now a member of the Royals, he has logged at least six innings and given up two runs or fewer in each of his three starts.

Lugo has already faced the White Sox once this season, allowing one run over 6 2/3 innings. Facing them a second time certainly works in his favor for having a valuable week in fantasy. The Orioles are not an ideal matchup, but Lugo has shown than he can silence even dangerous lineups, limiting the Astros to two runs over six innings in his last start. He is one of the more appealing streaming options of Week 4.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.