

NFC
Eagles over 49ers, Packers over Lions
Eagles over Packers
AFC
Steelers over Ravens, Bills over Bengals
Bills over Steelers
Super Bowl-
Eagles over Bills
Honestly, I have no feel for this season whatsoever. So forget all of this...
STEELERS OVER BEARS
Happy Football!
We're Back!!!!
It's time for the 23rd annual blow-out-the-budget PGBL Analytical Season Preview. As always, I've taken the time to break down the analytics on every team, present the strengths, the flaws, the wildcards and by the time we're all done, blow all credibility by predicting my team to win it all for the first time in 11 seasons.
Let's start by congratulating last year's champ TMac who defied the odds from a season-opening power ranking of #9 to take down the whole thing. How'd he celebrate? By deciding to hoard TWO of the top 5 QBs this season despite our league remaining a 1-QB league. Is it folly or sneaky genius?
Last season marked the first time since 2018 that no team finished with a double-figure win total despite the fact that we added an extra game to our regular season in 2021 when the NFL expanded to 17 games. That parity opened the door for a 7-7 IUP squad to storm through the playoffs and crash the championship game party before ultimately succumbing to the champs and his combo of Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins.
TMac retains that duo for this season while David and The Commish look to rebound after matching the defending champs with 9-win campaigns of their own, only to fizzle out in the playoffs.
For this year's preview, I decided to jump into the analytics a little differently. I did some research from the past three seasons, looking into fantasy points scored at each positions and averaging those totals out to help craft the predictions. I then used those averages and combined them with individual rankings to help craft a power rating for each team. I also included an x-factor that could add or subtract a point or two, a bench rating and a consistency/volatility rating to round out the rating total.
Example- At QB, the top scoring QB has averaged outscoring the 5th rated QB by 6.5 points over the past three years and the 10th rated QB by 9.67. Therefore, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson earned a 9.67 grade as the projected 1a and 1b at the position while QBs in the 8-10 range earned a 0. No team has a starting QB projected to finish outside the top 10-12, therefore no starting QB earned a negative value.
RB scoring totals were based off the projected top 20, WR scoring totals off the top 30 and Flex were based off RB 25 and WR 35. In both cases, there was a team that finished with a negative RB score and another that finished with a negative WR score.
In each case, it was clear that the more top players you have the better. At RB, the average separation between the top RB and #10 is 8.5 points while 10-20 is separated by just over 3 points. At WR, it was a 9.2 point gap between the top and #10 while there was only a 2.5 point difference between 10-20 and less than a 2-point difference between 20-30. TE had far and away the smallest variance, with less than a 5 point difference between 1 and 5 and nearly a 2.5 difference between 5 and 10. This is despite the Travis Kelce outlier, who as the #1 TE in 2022 outscored 2nd place (TJ Hockenson) by 6.61 points--a greater difference that Hockenson and the #20 TE that season.
Speaking of outliers, there has been exactly one outlier per season over the past three years with each outscoring their next closest positional threat by greater than 6 points per game. Those were CMC in 2023 and Ja'Marr Chase last season. CMC was the only one of those 3 (Mr. McGibblets) to help spur his team to a championship, though McCaffrey put up just a 12-point effort in that championship game.
Alright, enough of the background, let's get to the results. As always, you simply can't argue science.
POWER RANKINGS
Season Predictions
These do not and will not directly align with the power rankings, The predictions will more reflect my projection on how the season will go.
Leaf Division
Mirer Division
Playoffs
2nd round-
Championship- FIA over IUP
Good luck, enjoy tonight's game and FOOTBALL IS BACK!!!
Draft order (Official)
*acquired via trade with David
Year 23 of the PGBL is set to commence. Congrats to TMac on his second championship win! You guys all know the drill but let's get some specifics out of the way.
Draft Site- RTSports
Draft Date- shooting for the same as last year. Please let me know your availability for both Thursday and Friday evenings prior to Labor Day weekend (8/28-8/29).
Fees- $200
Winnings-
$650- League Champion (Plus Championship Belt)
For the second-consecutive year, we'll be selecting two keepers each. You may keep any 2 players at last year's draft value from your end-of-year roster (available on website, I'll also email). Undrafted players are worth a 10th rounder. Players kept last year cannot be kept for a second-consecutive season. That includes if a player has been traded to another team. Since last year was our first year with two keepers, this year's ineligible players are double from previous seasons. Players ineligible to be kept on your current roster (drafted by)—
Chris- Rachaad White, Rashee Rice
TMac- Jahmyr Gibbs, Jake Ferguson
Andrew- DJ Moore
Mike- Amon-Ra St. Brown, Puka Nicua
Brian- Breece Hall, Anthony Richardson, Kyren Williams (Bill), CJ Stroud (Andrew)
Mark- Mike Evans, Raheem Mostert
David- Drake London, Alvin Kamara
Phil- Isiah Pacheco, Sam LaPorta
Jason- Jonathan Taylor, Nico Collins
Bill- none (Christian McCaffrey- Free Agent)
Draft order- we will again select our picks in inverse order of playoff finish. Selection order is as follows--
1. Andrew
2. Mike
3. Bill
4. Chris
5. Phil
6. Brian
7. Mark
8. David
9. Jason
10. TMac
Other decisions to make--
I'm certain I'm missing some things, but we'll pick up on it as we go. If there's anything you'd like the league to consider, text it in the thread. That includes prospective rules changes. If you have any ideas for a rules addition/amendment, send it out and we’ll put it up for vote. As always, this is a very democratic league. I run it but I’m not an authoritarian.
Please remember to respond ASAP regarding the draft date (we usually start later in the evening and will find a time that works). Looking forward to another great season!
-Commish
| Acquired | Franco's Italian Army | Emari Demercado RB ARI | Sat Nov 15 10:14am CT |
| On I/R | Franco's Italian Army | Dalton Kincaid TE BUF | Fri Nov 14 8:54pm CT |
| On I/R | IUP | Bucky Irving RB TB | Fri Nov 14 12:55pm CT |
| Acquired | Mr. McGibblets | Cam Little K JAX | Fri Nov 14 9:08am CT |
| Released | Mr. McGibblets | Chad Ryland K ARI | Fri Nov 14 9:08am CT |
| Bad News Bares (6-4) | 9 | |
| Team Short Bus (2-8) | 0 | |
| Toothless Rednecks (5-5) | 0 | |
| DB's Smoking Nuns (3-7) | 0 | |
| Franco's Italian Army (4-6) | 54 | |
| Goodfellas (5-5) | 0 | |
| IUP (8-2) | 0 | |
| Sweathogs (6-4) | 7 | |
| WE THE PEOPLE (6-4) | 0 | |
| Mr. McGibblets (5-5) | 17 |
| Leaf | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Sweathogs | 6 | 4 |
| WE THE PEOPLE | 6 | 4 |
| Mr. McGibblets | 5 | 5 |
| Goodfellas | 5 | 5 |
| Team Short Bus | 2 | 8 |
| Mirer | W | L |
| IUP | 8 | 2 |
| Bad News Bares | 6 | 4 |
| Toothless Rednecks | 5 | 5 |
| Franco's Italian Army | 4 | 6 |
| DB's Smoking Nuns | 3 | 7 |
Chicago Bears kicker Cairo Santos has been a safe floor option at the position this season. Through seven games, Santos has made 12 of 15 kicks, while making all 20 extra point attempts. Santos is averaging 9.1 fantasy points per game this season, which puts him on pace to finish as the 13th-ranked kicker. The Bears face the Minnesota Vikings in Week 11, which will be Santos's first indoor game since Week 2. Despite the ideal kicking conditions, the Vikings may fare as a tough matchup for the veteran kicker, as only one other team has forced more missed field goals this season than the Vikings. Santos is a low-end starting option against the Vikings, as he looks to have his first big game of the 2025 season.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions wide receiver Isaac TeSlaa (oblique) has recorded just four catches for 65 yards and two touchdowns on seven targets across the first nine games of his career. The rookie wideout was a late addition to the injury report on Saturday due to an oblique issue and is now listed as questionable to play in Week 11 against the Philadelphia Eagles. In Lions head coach Dan Campbell's first game as the team's play-caller in Week 10, TeSlaa broke a three-game catch-less streak and played 20 offensive snaps, his most in a game since Week 6. The Lions have a difficult matchup in Week 11 against the Philadelphia. Still, if active, TeSlaa could have more opportunities in the passing game due to the absence of Detroit tight end Sam LaPorta (back). TeSlaa is ultimately difficult to trust as a fantasy starter in Week 11, but he could be a name to monitor in deep leagues if LaPorta's injury keeps him out long term.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills kicker Matt Prater did not attempt a field goal in his team's surprising 13-point performance in their Week 10 loss to the Miami Dolphins. Prater has now gone two consecutive weeks without a made field goal, as he missed both of his attempts in Buffalo's Week 9 win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Still, the 41-year-old has generally been solid this season, knocking in 12 of 14 field goal attempts and 26 of 27 extra-point tries across nine games. He should have some chances to get back on the board when the Bills host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 11. Through 10 weeks, both Buffalo and Tampa Bay rank in the top 11 in the NFL in per-game scoring. One possible concern for Prater's fantasy outlook in Week 11 is the potential for windy weather in Buffalo, so managers should monitor the forecast on Sunday. Still, Prater profiles as a low-end starting kicker option in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears rookie tight end Colston Loveland was a key contributor in Week 10 and is looking to further his breakout this week. After demolishing the Bengals in Week 9, Loveland hauled in four passes for 55 yards against the Giants, which ranked second among the team. Despite coming off the breakout, his snap count did not improve, as Cole Kmet outsnapped the rookie (69%-63%) in Week 10. Loveland faces the Minnesota Vikings in Week 11, who rank in the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy production from tight ends. Despite the first-round talent and improving production, Loveland is still a risky start in fantasy leagues this week due to his low snap count.
From RotoBaller
Through nine games this season, Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Tre Tucker has recorded 34 catches for 455 yards and four touchdowns. With wideout Jakobi Meyers no longer with the Raiders after being traded at the deadline, Tucker profiles as the WR1 and number two pass-catcher behind tight end Brock Bowers in Las Vegas. Tucker's first game without Meyers in Week 10 was underwhelming, as he recorded just two catches for 28 yards on three targets against the Denver Broncos. However, Tucker now gets a significantly easier matchup in Week 11 against the Dallas Cowboys. Through 10 weeks, the Dallas defense ranks 30th in yards per pass attempt allowed (8.2) and 31st in touchdown passes allowed (22). Tucker should be heavily involved in the Raiders' Week 11 game plan, which could create plenty of opportunities for production. He profiles as a low-end fantasy WR3 in Week 11 against Dallas.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Geno Smith hasn't had his best season through nine games and is coming off another tough performance in Week 10 at the Denver Broncos. Smith completed 16 of 26 passes for 143 yards and an interception, while also taking a season high six sacks. The 35-year-old came out of the game briefly for Kenny Pickett due to a bruised quadriceps injury, but was able to return and finish the game. Smith had the mini-bye after playing on Thursday night to rest the injury and heads into Monday night without an injury designation. The veteran hasn't been a playable fantasy option in most leagues in his first year in Las Vegas, but he has appeal as a QB2 streamer against a poor Dallas Cowboys defense that has allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks on Monday night. Smith ranks as RotoBaller's QB18 for Week 11.
From RotoBaller
The Los Angeles Rams elevated kicker Harrison Mevis to their active roster from the practice squad ahead of Sunday's divisional showdown against the Seattle Seahawks. Mevis signed with the Rams in early November and will kick in his second NFL game in Week 11 in place of Joshua Karty, who has struggled this season. He made all six extra points last week against the 49ers, but didn't attempt any field goals. The 23-year-old steps into one of the most favorable fantasy situations for a kicker with an elite Rams offense that produces plenty of scoring opportunities. Mevis immediately ranks as one of the better kickers to own in fantasy, coming in at No. 12 in RotoBaller's rankings for Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos running back Jaleel McLaughlin is poised for more opportunities in Week 11 against the Kansas City Chiefs with J.K. Dobbins (foot) out for the foreseeable future. Head coach Sean Payton said that McLaughlin is "ready" when asked what he's seen from the 25-year-old behind the scenes despite having been a healthy inactive for nine of 10 games this season. Rookie R.J. Harvey will likely handle a bigger workload with Dobbins sidelined, with McLaughlin in a change-of-pace role while Tyler Badie continues to play mostly on pass downs. It's tough to predict exactly how the touches will be distributed on Sunday versus the Chiefs, but McLaughlin is expected to be a part of the plan to some extent. He could be worth a speculative add in deeper leagues to see how the backfield roles play out on Sunday.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier continues to put himself in the Flex conversation after scoring his fifth and sixth rushing touchdowns of the season last week. In games where Atlanta remains competitive, the 25-year-old tends to stay involved, and Week 11's matchup against the Panthers should be one of those games despite losing to Carolina 30-0 back in Week 3. Carolina has allowed 157 yards rushing per game over the last three weeks, which is the fourth-highest total in the league, and has been stingy against the pass, so Atlanta may prefer to stick to the ground in this one as much as possible. The BYU product has been getting a healthy number of attempts inside the red zone, including five last week compared to just one for Bijan Robinson, so he could be in line for a score this week, too. Averaging just 3.6 yards per carry, though, makes him a touchdown-dependent RB4/Flex option, who has put up just a total of 5.0 fantasy points in the games in which he failed to score.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders rookie running back Ashton Jeanty has had underwhelming efficiency on a massive workload this season. Jeanty has topped 4.0 yards per carry in only two games this season while running behind a struggling Raiders offensive line. The sixth overall pick in this past year's draft has turned heavy volume into solid fantasy production, ranking as RB16 in PPR points per game (14.6) among running backs with at least four games played, with his 166 total touches ranking 11th most in the league. Jeanty's floor for fantasy points has been raised lately with more involvement as a pass catcher, catching 16 of his 22 targets for 116 yards and a touchdown in his past five games. The rookie back gets a beautiful matchup in Week 11 on Monday Night Football against a Dallas Cowboys defense that has allowed the fourth most PPR points per game to opposing running backs.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers is coming off his quietest game of the season in Week 10 versus the Denver Broncos, catching just one of his three targets for 31 yards. Bowers returned in Week 9 against the Jaguars after missing three games due to a knee injury, and produced the best game of his young career with 12 catches for 127 yards and three touchdowns on 13 targets. The superstar tight end should be expected to bounce back with a great matchup on deck in Week 11 against the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football. Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly took the blame for not getting Bowers more targets in their Week 10 loss, saying, "We have to get him more involved." Expect Bowers to be the focal point of the Raiders' game plan and go off in a matchup with the highest total of the week.
From RotoBaller
Through nine games this season, Buffalo Bills tight end Dawson Knox has recorded 12 catches for 155 yards and a touchdown on 18 targets. However, he could see a significant role increase in Week 11 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with Bills TE1 Dalton Kincaid (hamstring) sidelined by a hamstring injury. With Kincaid absent due to injury in Week 6, Knox scored his lone touchdown of 2025. Still, he recorded just one catch for 19 yards on two targets in that game. Tampa Bay has also been fairly stingy against tight ends so far this season, allowing an average of five receptions and 43 yards per game to the position. Even with Kincaid out, Knox will still likely split playing time to some degree with Bills tight end Jackson Hawes. At best, Knox profiles as a desperation deep-league streamer at the tight end position for fantasy managers in Week 11 against Tampa Bay.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers kicker Chris Boswell had an uncharacteristically rough outing in Week 10, hitting his lone extra-point try but converting on just one of his two field goal attempts in the loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. His miss from 45 yards was a rare slip for the veteran, who is typically automatic from inside 50 yards when weather and field conditions aren't a factor. Fortunately, he's in a great spot to bounce back at home against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 11. Sunday's contest carries a high projected point total, setting the stage for plenty of scoring opportunities. The 34-year-old checks in as a top-three option in RotoBaller's kicker rankings this week and should remain locked into fantasy lineups.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals running back Tahj Brooks hasn't done much of anything in his inaugural year. He had the chance to at least claim the No. 2 spot on the depth chart behind Chase Brown. While that wasn't expected early in the season, most had assumed he'd take over as the backup by now. However, that hasn't happened, with Samaje Perine (ankle) still absorbing nearly all of Brown's surplus carries while seeing limited action as a pass-catcher. With Perine ruled out for the Week 11 AFC North battle with the Pittsburgh Steelers, there's potential for Brooks to get more involved. Unfortunately, Brooks likely won't see much more work, if any, which isn't good news for those in need of a deep league streaming option on Sunday. For now, the rookie should be stashed on dynasty rosters while having virtually no redraft value.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman has mostly been a frustrating player for fantasy managers so far this season, recording 32 catches for 330 yards and three touchdowns on 49 targets across nine games. However, Coleman is coming off one of his better outings in Week 10, hauling in three catches for 46 yards and a touchdown on eight targets against the Miami Dolphins. There's reason to believe that the 22-year-old's increased target volume could carry over into his Week 11 matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as Buffalo will be without one of its top pass-catchers in tight end Dalton Kincaid (hamstring). However, the Bills will get veteran wideout Joshua Palmer (knee/ankle) back on the field for the first time since Week 4, which could cut into Coleman's opportunities. Coleman's production has almost directly correlated with his team's pass volume so far this season. The three games where Bills quarterback Josh Allen has cracked 30 pass attempts this season are the only three games where Coleman has earned seven or more targets. He profiles as a boom/bust low-end WR3 in Week 11, and fantasy managers should be hoping for Buffalo to be forced into a pass-happy game script against Tampa Bay.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals tight end Noah Fant has had a small uptick in fantasy production of late. While the volume hasn't been there, the veteran has at least found the end zone in two of the Bengals' previous three contests. With Mike Gesicki (pectoral) still on the shelf, Fant remains the favorite to remain the team's go-to tight end for Joe Flacco (shoulder), at least for the next few games. However, that doesn't mean Fant is a starting fantasy option for the Week 11 meeting with the Pittsburgh Steelers, although he can be viewed as a dart-throw streamer for those participating in deep league, multi-tight end formats.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears wide receiver Luther Burden III is starting to ascend as the fantasy playoffs near. Last week, Burden hauled in all three targets for 51 yards, outperforming both D.J. Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus. Something to look into, Burden played 52% of the snaps in Week 10, which was by far his largest snap share of the season. Moore and Zaccheaus saw their snap count dip in Week 10, and if Burden can continue to produce, his role will grow even further. He faces a tough Vikings secondary, which has allowed the eighth fewest fantasy points to wide receivers in 2025. Burden is on the brink of breaking out, but a tough matchup on the slate could hurt his fantasy value in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Andrei Iosivas had the best year of his brief career in 2024. Granted, he saw extra attention due to Tee Higgins struggling to stay healthy. Still, many assumed the wideout would play at least a little better this season. However, that hasn't happened, with Iosivas amassing one catch or less in six of his nine appearances. He's coming off his most productive showing of the 2025 campaign, bringing in five of his seven targets for 66 yards and a touchdown in the loss to the Chicago Bears in Week 9. Despite a solid effort, he still has a long way to go before being considered a starting option by fantasy managers. With that said, as long as Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase are on the field, Iosivas can't be trusted in any fantasy format. That will likely remain the case even if Higgins or Chase miss time. Keep him out of the lineup for the AFC North showdown with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir (ankle, ribs) logged a full practice on Friday and does not carry an injury designation into his team's Week 11 matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The 25-year-old has been a steady contributor in Buffalo all year, recording 45 catches for 457 yards and three touchdowns on 58 targets across nine games. Entering Week 11, Shakir has recorded at least seven targets and six catches in three straight contests. He could see an even further increase in target share against Tampa Bay due to the absence of Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (hamstring). The Buccaneers defense has been a bottom-10 unit this season in terms of yards allowed per pass attempt (7.4). Shakir doesn't carry explosive upside, but he should provide a very stable floor, given the combination of his opponent and his upside for targets. In Week 11, Shakir profiles as a low-end fantasy WR2.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears wide receiver D.J. Moore is off the injury report heading into Week 11, but is still struggling to find a role in this offense. In 2025, Moore is averaging his fewest catches, yards, and touchdowns in his entire NFL career, and currently ranks as the WR46 on a per-game basis. His struggles were well demonstrated in Week 10, when Moore was held without a catch against the New York Giants. The veteran receiver will look to bounce back against the Minnesota Vikings, who have allowed the eighth fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season. While the Bears could look to get Moore involved early in the game, he is still a hard player to trust starting in fantasy matchups this week.
From RotoBaller
| Commanders | 47.5u |
| Dolphins | -2.5 |
| Sun 8:30am CT | |
| Panthers | 42u |
| Falcons | -3.5 |
| Sun 12:00pm CT | |
| Bears | 48.5u |
| Vikings | -3 |
| Sun 12:00pm CT | |
| Bengals | 49.5u |
| Steelers | -5.5 |
| Sun 12:00pm CT | |
| Texans | 37u |
| Titans | +6 |
| Sun 12:00pm CT | |
| Chargers | 43.5u |
| Jaguars | +3 |
| Sun 12:00pm CT | |
| Packers | 42u |
| Giants | +7 |
| Sun 12:00pm CT | |
| Buccaneers | 47u |
| Bills | -6 |
| Sun 12:00pm CT | |
| Seahawks | 48.5u |
| Rams | -3 |
| Sun 3:05pm CT | |
| 49ers | 48.5u |
| Cardinals | +3 |
| Sun 3:05pm CT | |
| Ravens | 39u |
| Browns | +7.5 |
| Sun 3:25pm CT | |
| Chiefs | 45u |
| Broncos | +3.5 |
| Sun 3:25pm CT | |
| Lions | 46.5u |
| Eagles | -2.5 |
| Sun 7:20pm CT | |
| Cowboys | 50u |
| Raiders | +3.5 |
| Mon 7:15pm CT | |
| Sweathogs | Sat Nov 15 1:32pm CT |
| Toothless Rednecks | Sat Nov 15 11:56am CT |
| Franco's Italian Arm | Sat Nov 15 10:14am CT |
| Bad News Bares | Sat Nov 15 7:33am CT |
| Goodfellas | Sat Nov 15 4:24am CT |
| Mr. McGibblets | Sat Nov 15 2:59am CT |
| WE THE PEOPLE | Fri Nov 14 5:31pm CT |
| IUP | Fri Nov 14 4:57pm CT |
| Commissioner | Wed Nov 12 11:26pm CT |
| Team Short Bus | Wed Nov 12 1:34pm CT |
| DB's Smoking Nuns | Tue Nov 11 1:02pm CT |
Service: Gold
Your league is paid. Thank you, we hope you enjoy RealTime Fantasy Football!
