By Jeff Paur
RealTime Fantasy Sports

When an owner goes into a draft, they should keep an open mind. But you should also be prepared. And being prepared is likely having a list of guys to target or avoid. Below is my list of guys I'm avoiding this season.

I'm not saying I will not draft any of these guys at any cost, but I'm most likely going to let someone else take them unless they fall to me at a good spot come draft day. You might want to come up with a similar list for yourself. Maybe you can use mine as a guide.

Thomas Jones, RB, Jets. Jones had a career season last year, but won't have Brett Favre as his quarterback this season. He'll have either an unproven rookie or career backup at the helm. This could lead to more teams trying to take away the Jets running game. Plus, Leon Washington and rookie Shonn Greene should be in the mix for carries for the Jets, which will lead to fewer carries for Jones. Jones goes from a guy I targeted last season to a guy I'm avoiding this year. Go figure.

Jamal Lewis, RB, Browns. Lewis is another aging back. He has been a consistent producer through the years, but his numbers have never been off the charts. He turns 30 right before the season starts and has at least 269 carries in seven of eight seasons. That is a lot of work for a big back getting up there in years. How much does Lewis have left? I would let someone else use a pick on a guy that seems on the downside of his career.

Jay Cutler, QB, Bears. Cutler moves from an offense with a lot of proven receivers to an offense with unproven options at receiver. Their top target at receiver is a converted defensive back. And the other likely starter is a second-year player that didn't even have a catch last season. Will Cutler make them better? Sure. But he also could have some up and down weeks in this offense, an offense that should still center around running back Matt Forte. I still think Cutler can produce and be worth some starts as a No. 1, but I'm not sure he'll be worth the round he has to be drafted.

Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins. Portis finally showed some signs of wearing down last season, missing some time late in the year because of various injuries. He played through most of them, but this could be a sign of things to come. Portis is just 27 years old, but has 270-plus carries in seven of eight seasons. And he has 325 or more carries in four of the last five years with the Redskins. You have to worry about him breaking down, which is why I'm avoiding him come draft day.

Anquan Boldin, WR, Cardinals. Boldin had a huge '08 season despite missing four games. He set career highs in touchdowns (11), scoring double-digit TDs for the first time in his career. But his history of mediocre touchdown numbers still scares me for where Boldin goes come draft day. I wouldn't be surprised to see him score 7 or so touchdowns. He is more of a possession receiver in the Cardinals offense. Boldin also had three 100-yard games last season, but he also had fewer than 65 yards in five games. I don't see him as a sure-fire No. 1 receiver for fantasy teams. He won't be consistent as some of your elite No. 1 receivers, which scares me for where he is going in early drafts.

Roy Williams, WR, Cowboys. Sure, I like his upside as much as the next guy, but Williams is being drafted as a low-end No. 1 receiver for fantasy teams. I don't think I want to pay that price for a guy that has just one 1,000-yard season in five NFL seasons. He has less than 850-receiving yards in his other four seasons. He is a risk for fantasy teams this season because of a shaky track record. Plus, I think Jason Witten will get the most targets for the Cowboys, especially in the red zone. Williams will be more like a No. 2 receiver for the Cowboys.

Kellen Winslow, TE, Bucs. Winslow is an elite tight end when healthy and heavily involved in the offense. But those are two big "ifs" for him coming into this season. He moves to a new team with quarterback issues (who is going to start?) and a history of not using the tight end. Just how long are his reconstructed knees going to hold up. He'll be one of the first five tight ends off the board, but with so many question marks, I don't feel comfortable picking him in the fifth or sixth round of my draft.

Matt Cassel, QB, Chiefs. Cassel had a breakout year last season, finally getting a chance to play once Tom Brady got hurt. Now, he moves to the Chiefs and will get a chance to be a No. 1 from day one. But remember, Cassel had good numbers last season in a great Patriots offense, but they weren't off the charts good. He should get better as he gets more seasoned, but having fewer weapons to work with will hurt his production. Outside of Dwayne Bowe, the Chiefs have little at receiver. Cassel is likely to be taken off last year's big season, so I'm letting someone else overpay for him come draft day.

Chad Pennington, QB, Dolphins. Pennington isn't flashy, but just gets the job done. He had a career high in yards last season (3,653) and threw for 19 touchdowns. But he has 20-plus touchdown passes in just one of his 10 seasons. He has never been a huge fantasy factor. I would rather use my pick on a guy with more potential and upside than Pennington (i.e. Trent Edwards or Kyle Orton). It just makes more sense for me to go for higher upside guys than run of the mill fantasy backups, which is really what Pennington projects to be for the coming season.

Hines Ward, WR, Steelers. Ward had another 1,000-yard season last year and his usual steady numbers. But I'm worried some about his offseason shoulder surgery and the knee injury he suffered last season. Is Ward breaking down? He plays at such a fierce level for a receiver (i.e. great blocker, not afraid of contact) that it wouldn't be a surprise to see Ward falling on hard times a little sooner than your typical receiver. I had Ward in several leagues last season because he always seems to be good value come draft day, but this season seems like a good time to let Ward slide to another team.