20-Nov-2009 18:04pm | |
RealTime Fantasy Sports Draft Guide
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Arizona Atlanta Baltimore Buffalo Carolina Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland Dallas Denver Detroit Green Bay Houston Indianapolis Jacksonville Kansas City Miami Minnesota New Orleans New England New York Giants New York Jets Oakland Philadelphia Pittsburgh San Diego Seattle San Francisco St Louis Tampa Bay Tennessee Washington Boom or Bust?By Jeff Paur RealTime Fantasy Sports Every season there seems to be a group of players that are make or break for fantasy teams. We like to call those players the boom or bust players. There always are a decent group of guys that fall into this category. If they come through, your team performs. If not, you could be in store for a long season. For us, it is alright to take a player or two like this. But don't overload your team with players that have high upside but aren't sure things. And if you want to just play it safe, avoid these guys altogether. But remember, sometimes you have to take chances to win in fantasy football. Below are some of the boom or bust players for '09. These guys all have high ceilings, but also could implode. The pros and cons of each player are listed with them to help you better decide if you want them on your roster. Have fun figuring out if you want these guys on your team.
DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers. Williams actually made this list last season. We all know how that turned out. He turned in a career season and carried almost every fantasy team he was on to the playoffs. So his upside is huge for the coming year. But with that said, we still aren't completely sold on Williams. Last season was the first time he did anything in three years in the league. His previous high in rushing yards was 717. He more than doubled that total last season. Williams also has second-year back Jonathan Stewart to contend with for carries. Stewart could get double-digit carries most weeks and a lot of the goal-line work. If Williams were going to be a late first-round or early second-round pick, there is no issue with him. But he'll be a top 10 or even top five pick this coming season, which could be a big risk to take on a guy with a few question marks. Kellen Winslow, TE, Bucs. Winslow's biggest issue through the years has been staying healthy. He has just two full seasons under his belt in five NFL seasons. But when healthy, Winslow has 1,000-yard potential at the tight end spot. He has two seasons with 80-plus catches, but has less than 50 receptions his other three seasons combined. And he moves to an offense this season that hasn't been a top passing team in a few years and could see a bigger dropoff with Jon Gruden no longer running the show. Plus, the Bucs have all sorts of questions at quarterback, which is another concern for Winslow. But if healthy and getting the chances, Winslow has the potential to be the No. 1 fantasy tight end in the league. He also has a chance to be a huge bust because of all the negative issues surrounding him. Chad Pennington, QB, Dolphins. Pennington was a big surprise for fantasy teams last season. He became a good spot starter for fantasy teams. He had two 300-yard games and six games with two or more scores. Pennington also threw for the most yards in his career. He also has a decent track record of success. The big problem is Chad Henne. The second-year quarterback is the quarterback of the future for the Dolphins and could even get some spot action this season. He'll be pushing Pennington for playing time. We don't see Pennington losing his starting job this season, but he could get a little more time on the bench than your typical starter. Pennington has the potential to repeat last season in an emerging offense, but he also could see a big dip in production if the Dolphins decide to use Henne more this season. Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints. Thomas had a huge finish to last season, scoring touchdowns in five of his last six games. He also had at least 100 total yards in five of those games. Thomas displayed great potential. But he also was nicked up during that stretch and missed the last game of the season. There are concerns about durability for Thomas. He'll also share plenty of work with Reggie Bush. He is on a lot of sleeper lists, though, and with good reason. He has produced in some starts in the past and plays in a great offense. He is far from a sure thing, though. Santonio Holmes, WR, Steelers. If Holmes could play every game like he did in the Super Bowl, he would be an elite fantasy option. But he hasn't sustained that play through a full season. And many might draft him based just on that great performance in the Super Bowl. He has the ability to be a solid No. 1 fantasy receiver with his top speed and hands. He has big-play and big-game ability. But keep in mind Holmes top season is 942 yards, averaging 862 yards per season during his three-year career. Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Colts. Gonzalez finally gets his chance to start in the Colts high-powered offense. He seems setup for a breakout season. Many thought last season would be very good as well, but Dallas Clark picked up the slack in the passing game from the aging Marvin Harrison. The potential is there, but Gonzalez isn't a proven commodity. He hasn't topped 700-receiving yards in a season and has just seven touchdowns in two years. Matt Cassel, QB, Chiefs. Cassel did about as well as you could possibly do, filling in for a surefire Hall of Famer last season. He finally got a chance to play and nearly threw for 4,000 yards while scoring 23 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. Cassel played his way into a starting role, which led to a trade to the Chiefs. The Chiefs should employ a pass-friendly system, but they don't have near the weapons of the Patriots. Needless to say, Cassel is a big question mark heading into his first season as a full-time starter with a new team in a new offense. He showed last season that he can be a No. 1 fantasy quarterback, but will that translate to this season? Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers. Jackson was on sleeper lists the last two seasons. He finally had a big season last year, though, living up to the hype. He topped 1,000 yards for the first time in his career and had three 100-yard games. Jackson is the No. 1 receiver in San Diego now, but he is more of a big-play threat than reception receiver. He had just 59 receptions last season. Jackson can be hit or miss because of his big-play ability. And a healthy Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson could cut into his chances some. Jackson still has obvious upside, but also could see a drop in production with the possibility of fewer chances. Plus, Jackson has only enjoyed one good season in four years in the league.
Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys. Barber was a first-round choice for fantasy teams last season, but didn't come through, failing to score double-digit touchdowns or rush for 1,000 yards in a starting role. He was slowed by injury some, but his missed time opened the door for Tashard Choice. The Cowboys want to use three backs in a rotation this season, going with Barber, Felix Jones and Choice. This is a nightmare scenario for fantasy owners. Barber should get the goal-line work and is likely to stay healthy with less of a workload, but his yardage totals are a concern. He won't go in first round this season, but still has the potential for big things if he racks up a bunch of TDs and gets most of the carries late in the game as the Cowboys run out the clock. Santana Moss, WR, Redskins. Moss had three 100-yard games last season, but also had seven games with fewer than 50 yards. He is far from a consistent option at receiver, but he has a lot of big-play ability. Moss went over 1,000 yards for the first time in a couple seasons last year. He had less than 810-receiving yards the previous two years. Moss has the ability to be a big-time fantasy option, but can frustrate owners with his up and down production. Sage Rosenfels, QB, Vikings. Rosenfels finally gets a chance to start in Minnesota. Sure, he'll compete with Tarvaris Jackson for the starting job, but Rosenfels has the clear lead in the race to start. Rosenfels displayed some good things in a starting role the past couple season, filing in for Matt Schaub. Last year, Rosenfels scored a touchdown and had at least 200 yards in all but one of the games he played. He even completed 67 percent of his passes. But Rosenfels takes a lot of chances and will make some mistakes, getting picked off 10 times last season. The Vikings have the options at receiver to compliment Rosenfels' big-play ability, but he'll need to cut down on his mistakes if he hopes to help fantasy teams much this season.
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