By Jeff Paur
RealTime Fantasy Sports

Owners love to be the guy that drafted some relative unknown that blossomed into a legitimate fantasy star, leading them to the playoffs. It seems to be a favorite topic for fantasy players - sleepers. And there are always certain players that emerge from obscurity to post big numbers. The key is trying to identify those players, which is never easy.

Aaron Rodgers was a great example of a player that we had on our sleeper list last season. We targeted Rodgers as a candidate to shine, getting a chance to finally start with Brett Favre gone. He didn't really get much of a chanced with the Packers before last season, but showed a lot of potential coming out of college. Plus, the Packers had a lot of top options at receiver and were expected to be a pass-first team.

Rodgers got his chances and took advantage, finishing among the league leaders in passing. For all the teams that used a mid-round pick on Rodgers last season, good for you. You likely reaped the benefits.

Rodgers is just one example, though. Every season there is a group of players that live up to their potential and carry fantasy teams into the playoffs. As mentioned, the key is identifying those players and knowing where to take them during your draft.

On the flip side, there always are a group of players that don't live up to the hype. Last season, Javon Walker was a big-time bust. But many had this predicted. Some thought moving to the Raiders and becoming their No. 1 receiver would be a huge plus for Walker, maybe even jumpstarting his career, again. But he once again had an injury-plagued season and lost out on work to several players behind him on the depth chart.

If you did your homework, you knew Walker was a former 1,000-yard receiver, but also battled knee injuries the last few seasons and played a full season just once the last three years. And the Raiders didn't exactly have a vaunted passing game heading into the season, which was another concern. The Raiders ignored this giving him a huge contract during the offseason. Walker had too many strikes against him to be considered a safe choice last season.

So using a mid-round pick on Walker was a big risk for fantasy teams. Because of this, a lot of owners stayed away from Walker and were satisfied to see another owner in their league waste a high pick on him.

The key is to do your homework and figure out the players on the rise or setup for a poor season. Below is a list of a few players we would keep an eye on for the coming season.

BREAKOUTS

Donnie Avery, WR, Rams. With Torry Holt gone, Avery is the No. 1 receiver in the Rams passing attack. They won't have a prolific passing game, but somebody has to catch the passes thrown and Avery is the obvious choice. He flashed some good things last season, posting a 100-yard game and three straight games to end the season with at least five receptions. Avery has the ability to be a big-game receiver. He can reach 1,000 yards in a No. 1 role in this offense.

Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons. Some would consider his rookie season a breakout year, but Ryan should improve on those numbers. Remember, he had less than 200 yards his first five games to start last season. Plus, he finished with just 16-passing TDs. With a season under his belt, Ryan should be able to really improve. He has the potential to throw for 4,000 yards and get 25-plus TDs. There are comparisons to Peyton Manning, who threw for 4,000 yards and scored 26 touchdowns his second season in the league. Ryan can post those types of numbers in this Falcons offense.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jags. Fred Taylor has finally moved on, leaving Jones-Drew as the starting back in Jacksonville. He posted very good numbers even with Taylor around, but should get even more work this season. Jones-Drew should be able to post career highs in yards, getting more carries on first and second down. His touchdown numbers shouldn't change too much, but his first 1,000-yard season is likely, making him a top-10 pick come draft day.

Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins. Brown started fast but finished with a bit of a thud last season. He had 70 or fewer rushing yards in seven straight games to end the year. But he did have three 100-yard games before that and scored 10 touchdowns. He was coming off a major knee injury, though, and should be as healthy as he has been in a while to start this coming season. Brown isn't likely to wear down. And with the Dolphins offense improving, Brown should get more chances to score. He is on track to post his second 1,000-yard season and score double-digit touchdowns in an emerging Dolphins offense.

David Garrard, QB, Jags. Despite having little to work with at receiver, Garrard still posted pretty good numbers last season. He is working very hard this offseason, though, slimming down and improving his timing with the Jags receivers. The Jags also should see some improvement at receiver, which will only help Garrard. If he can throw for nearly 4,000 yards and 20 touchdowns last season, you have to like his chances to improve those numbers with his improvements during the offseason.

Others: Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens; Kevin Smith, RB, Lions; DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles; John Carlson, TE, Seahawks.

SLEEPERS

Devin Hester, WR, Bears. Hester is the top option in what should be an improved Bears passing attack. He has a lot of potential with Jay Cutler throwing him passes. Hester actually didn't do too badly with Kyle Orton as his QB last season. Hester had at least five receptions in five games. He also averaged 13 yards per reception. He makes plays with the ball in his hands. And remember, Hester has been making the switch to receiver just the last two seasons. He still is learning the position. The Bears should throw more with Cutler at the helm, giving Hester several plusses for the coming season.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants. Derrick Ward was the No. 2 back for the Giants last season and broke the 1,000-yard plateau. Bradshaw assumes this role this season, serving as the top backup to Brandon Jacobs. Bradshaw has good upside in this role. He has flashed some big-play potential in the past and done well in some spot starts. He should do just fine in his backup role. The Giants have a superb running game, so whoever is getting chances should produce. We aren't sure Bradshaw can reach 1,000 yards, but he can get around 800 and a few scores, making him a solid No. 3 back.

Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys. The Cowboys aren't going to hand Austin the starting job, but he has a very good shot to start with Terrell Owens gone. The Cowboys like Austin's potential. He is a big-play threat still blossoming as a receiver. He scored touchdowns in three of his first six games last season and averaged 21.4 yards per reception. He has all sorts of upside if he can grab a starting role in the Cowboys pass-happy offense. Austin is a good guy to take a flyer on late in your draft.

Kyle Orton, QB, Broncos. Orton moves from an offense with little at receiver to an offense with some All Pros at his disposal. He also goes to a pass-happy system. He isn't guaranteed the starting job, but it is his to lose. Orton wasn't All Pro for the Bears last season, but wasn't too shabby, completing about 59 percent of his passes with 18-touchdown passes. He made some big plays at times. And with much better options to work with, Orton has very good chance to improve his numbers and set career highs.

Sage Rosenfels, QB, Vikings. Rosenfels takes some chances and turns the ball over, but also is a big-play threat capable of carrying an offense. The Vikings don't have the receivers to work with like the Texans, but aren't too far off. Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice are solid starters that can stretch the field, which is a strength of Rosenfels. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Rosenfels excel in the Vikings offense. They will remain run first, but also will take plenty of chances downfield to keep defenses honest. He has some potential heading into the season.

Others: Mark Bradley, WR, Chiefs; Luke McCown, QB, Bucs; Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings; Fred Jackson, RB, Bills; Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs.

BUSTS

Antonio Bryant, WR, Bucs. Bryant was a huge surprise last season. He wasn't even in football the previous season, but managed to set career highs in receptions, yards and touchdowns. He emerged as the Bucs No. 1 receiver, a role he should continue to serve this season. But with Jon Gruden gone, the Bucs passing game could suffer some this season. Plus, their quarterback situation is far from certain. There could be some quarterback struggles in Tampa, which is likely to hurt Bryant. We still think Bryant can produce, but not near his numbers of last season, making him a good guy to let someone else grab early in your draft.

Lance Moore, WR, Saints. Moore had a breakout season for the Saints, finishing with just less than 1,000-receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. He limped to the finish line, though, getting fewer than 50-receiving yards in four of his last five games. His totals were up and down from week to week with the Saints spreading the ball to a host of receivers. Moore will get his chances, but his weak finish and competition at receiver is cause for concern for '09. A repeat from last season isn't likely.

Jay Cutler, QB, Bears. Cutler had a huge, breakout season last year. But that was with the Broncos. He whined his way out of Denver, landing in Chicago. The Bears offense is a lot less explosive at receiver, which is likely to cause Cutler some problems. He will have some big games, but could struggle more than normal for him in others as he looks for Devin Hester, Rashied Davis and Earl Bennett at receiver. That is quite the dropoff from Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal and Brandon Stokley. You can't draft Cutler based on last season.

Thomas Jones, RB, Jets. Everything came together for Jones last season, totaling over 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns. He had a career season. But he'll be 31 years old when the season starts and won't have Brett Favre keeping defenses honest. It should be a lot tougher for Jones this season. Plus, the Jets want to get Leon Washington more and more involved, which is another strike against Jones. And the Jets took rookie Shonn Greene in the draft, proving they don't expect Jones to be around much longer. The clock seems to be ticking on Jones.

Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins. Portis has been as steady as any back in the game the last several seasons. He has 1,200-plus rushing yards in six of seven seasons. Portis is just 27 years old, but has a lot more carries than your normal 27-year old. He has 325-plus carries in four of his last five seasons. He is due to start breaking down and showed some signs of this last season. He played every game last season, but was slowed by various injuries at different times of the year. Portis isn't likely to keep his current pace, making a dropoff in production a real possibility this season.

Others: Hines Ward, WR, Steelers; Matt Cassel, QB, Chiefs; Ryan Grant, RB, Packers; Chad Pennington, QB, Dolphins.