20-Nov-2009 17:35pm
 
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Law of Averages

By Jeff Paur
RealTime Fantasy Sports

You don't want to field an average fantasy team, but knowing what average is, can be the difference between finishing first and last. If you know what is average, than you can strive to be above-average. So knowing your fantasy football scoring inside and out can be a huge difference maker for owners.

Using the rules for the World Championship of Fantasy Football scoring, we came up with the average scores you should expect from each position, using last year's stats. This is a great way to formulate your draft strategy for the coming season. We broke down each position average, and how that should affect your draft. Remember, every league's rules are different, but this format is pretty similar to what most leagues are running these days.

The scoring system is a basic set of common scoring rules. Quarterbacks get four points per touchdown pass and minus a point for every interception. The rest of the touchdowns scored are worth six points a piece. Yardage for quarterbacks is total yards thrown divided by 20 (i.e. 215 passing yards = 10.75 fantasy points). The rest of the yardage totals are total yards divided by 10 (i.e. 89 rushing yards = 8.9 fantasy points). Players also get a point per receptions (PPR), which gives receivers a little more value. Defenses/special teams get points for takeaways, sacks and are rewarded for allowing 10 or fewer points. Starting lineups are comprised of a quarterback, two running backs, three receivers, a tight end, flex spot (RB, WR or TE), kicker and defense.

With those rules in place, the average scores for the starting positions are below:

Pos Avg Total Pts
QB19.36 310.17
RB 117.18 274.82
RB 212.87 205.91
WR 116.78 268.53
WR 213.66 218.5
WR 311.1 177.58
TE10.43 166.96
K9.49 151.88
DEF8.47 135.58

Quarterback

Drew Brees, as he was in most leagues, was the top rated quarterback and averaged 23.48 points per game, which was only about two points higher than the second rated QB, Aaron Rodgers. There wasn't a huge disparity from top to bottom for the No. 1 quarterbacks last season. The 12th ranked quarterback (Tyler Thigpen) averaged 16.23 points per game, which is about three points fewer than the average No. 1 starting quarterback (19.36).

So this is a good example why many owners wait to grab a quarterback. The difference between Brees and Thigpen was about touchdown, but for the most part, the top 12 quarterbacks from last season scored very similar. We had seven quarterbacks average 19 points or higher. And even some of the lesser options, such as 17th rated Jason Campbell (15.02 points per game), aren't too far off the average starting quarterback numbers.

Most leagues start just a quarterback, so if you don't get that elite guy or want to stock up on other positions, this statistical breakdown should make you feel better about waiting to get a quarterback come draft day.

Running Back

The numbers didn't show it quite as much last season, but elite running backs are a premium for fantasy owners and with good reason. Usually, the top backs score a lot more than the secondary options.

Last season, DeAngelo Williams led running backs in scoring, averaging 19.28 points per game, but rookie Matt Forte wasn't too far off (19.16). Williams and Forte were the only two backs that averaged more than 19 points per game. They finished about five points higher than the 12th rated back (Marion Barber).

Barber was about three points lower than the average No. 1 back. As you can tell, the disparity between the top and bottom of the No. 1 backs wasn't huge last season. It was less than a touchdown, which is a difference but not as much as it has previous seasons with guys like LaDainian Tomlinson tearing it up (10 point difference at times).

The No. 2 RB spot was even closer with the difference between the top scorer (Marshawn Lynch) and last guy in that group (Ryan Grant) about three points. The No. 2 RB spot averaged 12.87 points per game. There were 16 backs that averaged between 10 and 13 points per game last season.

Either way, getting the top guys in both groups or getting two backs that produce like No. 1 options can be a difference maker for fantasy teams. And this is why many teams live by the rule of taking two backs with their first two picks.

Receiver

With more and more leagues going with a PPR format, No. 1 receivers are getting picked sooner and sooner. And with good reason. Andre Johnson, the No. 1 WR last season, averaged 20.16 points per game, which was more than the top scoring running back. The No. 1 WR spot averaged 16.78 points per game, just a few tenths of a point lower than the No. 1 RB position. So it is pretty obvious, receiver isn't a position to sit on anymore. The top guys can be difference makers, especially in a PPR format.

No. 1 receivers averaged about three points per week more than No. 2 WR, which isn't a huge disparity but decent enough. Getting two No. 1s on your team can give you a six point advantage over a team that fills their roster with mediocre options at receiver. Using this strategy can pay off for fantasy teams.

The No. 2 WR spot averaged 13.66 points. This was actually more than the No. 2 RB position (12.87). The receiver position probably is deeper than most, though, with 35 players averaging double-digit points. But the elite options can carry a fantasy team. There were 10 players averaging 15 or more points, so getting elite options at receiver can be a big plus for fantasy teams. If you have two receivers getting you 15 or more points, you are producing good numbers most weeks.

The No. 3 WR sees a bit of a dropoff from the top two receiver spots, averaging 11.1 points per game. This is almost a full touchdown less than the No. 1 WR spot. And there are a lot of receivers that fall around the 11 points per game spot. There were 18 receivers that scored between nine and 11 points. After getting past the top options at receiver, the rest of the field becomes pretty muddled. There is a good chance you can find an 11-point receiver in the later rounds or even on the waiver wire, so don't reach too soon come draft day.

Tight End

The tight end position is top heavy. A No. 1 tight end only averaged 10.43 points per game, which is actually about the same as the No. 3 WR spot. But the top tight end, Tony Gonzalez, scored 16.36 points per week. Gonzalez played more like a top receiver, which makes him a valuable commodity for fantasy teams. He scored almost nine points per game more than the 12th rated tight end (Tony Scheffler).

There were six tight ends that scored 10 or more points per game. But after the top six, we had 15 players score between six and nine points per week. The numbers were very similar after the top players at the position. If you don't get an elite tight end, you might as well just wait and fill out your roster later in your draft. Once you get past guys like Gonzalez and Jason Witten, the rest of the options become eerily similar. Getting a point or two more at tight end at the expense of your No. 2 running back spot or at receiver doesn't sound like a good idea.

Kicker

8

The kicker position is a great example of a position you can wait several rounds to fill unless your league is big on kicking scoring. Stephen Gostkowski led kickers in scoring, finishing with 168 fantasy points. But Gostkowksi averaged 10.5 points per game, about two more than Kris Brown (8.9), who finished 12th in kicker scoring. And even the 27th rated kicker, Jason Hanson, wasn't too far off from the league leader, averaging 7.28 points per game. Again, that is roughly three less per game than the league leader.

Kickers are a dime a dozen in fantasy land, so don't reach too early for one. You are better served trying to acquire depth at key positions like running back, receiver and even quarterback.

Defense/Special Teams

Defense/special teams is similar to the kicker spot, at least in this format. The Eagles and Ravens were the top scoring defenses, averaging more than nine points per game. But after those two teams, a whooping 21 teams averaged between six and nine points per week. If you don't get the Eagles or Ravens or whoever you have rated tops on your board this season, you might as well wait to fill out your roster. The scoring difference is minimal at the defense position - for the most part. Again, know your league scoring. Every league is different, so defenses could be much more valuable in your league.

What we learned . . .

In closing, the moral of the story is to know your league scoring. It would be great to breakdown all the scoring averages at each position in every league you play, but most don't have that kind of time. We just suggest you have an idea of what each position average should be for your team and formulate a draft strategy from that. This league's scoring is pretty similar to many standard leagues, so hopefully you get an idea of position importance for your impending draft.

Fantasy Football Player Notes RSS FeedPLAYER NOTES

Brian FinneranNov 20 04:33p

D. Orlando Ledbetter, of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, reports Atlanta Falcons WR Brian Finneran (knee) has been ruled out for Week 11.

Ben PatrickNov 20 03:33p

Darren Urban, of AZCardinals.com, reports Arizona Cardinals TE Ben Patrick (knee) fully participated in practice Friday, Nov. 20. He is listed as questionable for Week 11 and could be [ More ]

Reggie WellsNov 20 03:33p

Darren Urban, of AZCardinals.com, reports Arizona Cardinals OG Reggie Wells (thumb) and DE Kenny Iwebema (knee) fully participated in practice Friday, Nov. 20. They are listed as probable for [ More ]

Jim LeonhardNov 20 03:23p

The Associated Press reports New York Jets FS Jim Leonhard (thumb) was limited in practice Friday, Nov. 20, and is questionable for Week 11 with a broken right thumb. [ More ]

Travis KirschkeNov 20 03:13p

Pittsburgh Steelers DE Travis Kirschke (calf) did not participate in practice Friday, Nov. 20. He has been ruled out for Week 11.

Michael TurnerNov 20 03:13p

D. Orlando Ledbetter, of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, reports Atlanta Falcons RB Michael Turner (ankle) did not participate in practice Friday, Nov. 20. He is listed as doubtful for Week [ More ]

Roddy WhiteNov 20 03:13p

D. Orlando Ledbetter, of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, reports Atlanta Falcons WR Roddy White (knee) was limited during practice Friday, Nov. 20. He is listed as questionable for Week 11 [ More ]

Jerious NorwoodNov 20 03:13p

D. Orlando Ledbetter, of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, reports Atlanta Falcons RB Jerious Norwood (hip) participated in practice Friday, Nov. 20. He is listed as questionable for Week 11 and will be available.

Ashton YoubotyNov 20 03:03p

Buffalo Bills OT Demetrius Bell (knee), LB Keith Ellison (thigh) and CB Ashton Youboty (ankle) did not participate in practice Friday, Nov. 20. They have been ruled out for Week 11.

Terrence McGeeNov 20 03:03p

Buffalo Bills CB Terrence McGee (knee) was limited during practice Friday, Nov. 20. He is listed as questionable for Week 11 and is not expected to play.

A. HaynesworthNov 20 02:53p

Ryan O'Halloran, of The Washington Times, reports Washington Redskins DT Albert Haynesworth (ankle) did not participate in practice Friday, Nov. 20. He is listed as questionable for Week 11 [ More ]

Marcus StroudNov 20 02:53p

Buffalo Bills DT Marcus Stroud (knee) did not participate in practice Friday, Nov. 20. He has been ruled out for the team's Week 11 game.

Danny WareNov 20 02:43p

Paul Schwartz, of the New York Post, reports New York Giants offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride said the team believes RB Danny Ware is capable of handling the duties of [ More ]

Troy PolamaluNov 20 02:43p

ESPN reports Pittsburgh Steelers SS Troy Polamalu (knee) has been ruled out for Week 11.

Brian WestbrookNov 20 02:33p

ESPNews reports Philadelphia Eagles RB Brian Westbrook (concussion) will be out in Week 11 and likely the two following weeks as well.

Garrett WolfeNov 20 02:23p

Brad Biggs, of the Chicago Sun-Times, reports the Chicago Bears have placed RB Garrett Wolfe (kidney) on Injured Reserve, ending his 2009 season.

Antonio BryantNov 20 01:13p

Charlie Campbell and Jim Flynn, of PewterReport.com, report Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Antonio Bryant (knee) participated in practice Friday, Nov. 20. He is listed as probable for Week 11.

Byron LeftwichNov 20 01:13p

Charlie Campbell and Jim Flynn, of PewterReport.com, report Tampa Bay Buccaneers CB Aqib Talib (hamstring) and QB Byron Leftwich (elbow) participated in practice Friday, Nov. 20. They are listed as probable for Week 11.

Clinton PortisNov 20 01:03p

Rick Maese, of The Washington Post, reports Washington Redskins RB Clinton Portis (concussion) is scheduled to travel to Pittsburgh to meet with a specialist regarding his concussion.

C. BuckhalterNov 20 12:43p

Denver Broncos RB Correll Buckhalter (knee) did not participate in practice Thursday, Nov. 19.

Kyle OrtonNov 20 12:43p

Denver Broncos QB Kyle Orton (ankle) did not participate in practice Thursday, Nov. 19. The Broncos have not ruled him out for Week 11 and said he is feeling better.

LaMont JordanNov 20 12:43p

Denver Broncos RB LaMont Jordan (back) did not participate in practice Thursday, Nov. 19.

Ryan HarrisNov 20 12:43p

Denver Broncos OT Ryan Harris (toe) did not participate in practice Thursday, Nov. 19. He likely will not play in Week 11 unless he makes a significant recovery.

Brandon MarshallNov 20 12:43p

Denver Broncos WR Brandon Marshall (neck) participated in practice Thursday, Nov. 19. He will be able to play in Week 11.

Peyton HillisNov 20 12:43p

Denver Broncos FB Peyton Hillis could be active for Week 11 if RB Correll Buckhalter (knee) or RB LaMont Jordan (back) are not able to play.

Jerricho CotcheryNov 20 12:13p

Tara Sullivan, of The Bergen Record, reports New York Jets special teams coach Mike Westhoff said WR Jerricho Cotchery has emerged as a leading candidate to return kickoffs if [ More ]

David ClowneyNov 20 12:13p

Tara Sullivan, of The Bergen Record, reports New York Jets WR David Clowney and CB Dwight Lowery are candidates to return kickoffs in Week 11.

Felix JonesNov 20 11:33a

Gerry Fraley, of The Dallas Morning News, reports Dallas Cowboys owner/general manager Jerry Jones said he would like to see RB Felix Jones get more touches because he believes [ More ]

Larry JohnsonNov 20 11:33a

Joe Reedy, of The Cincinnati Enquirer, reports Cincinnati Bengals RB Larry Johnson said he anticipates playing in Week 11 but would not expect a heavy load of carries.

Jason FergusonNov 20 11:23a

Mike Berardino, of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, reports Miami Dolphins DT Jason Ferguson (knee) was carted off the field in the fourth quarter in Week 11 because of a [ More ]

Ronnie BrownNov 20 11:23a

Omar Kelly, of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, reports Miami Dolphins RB Ronnie Brown (foot) is scheduled to undergo surgery Friday, Nov. 20, to repair a Lisfranc fracture in his right foot.

Nick HarperNov 20 11:03a

Gary Estwick, of The Tennesean, reports Tennessee Titans head coach Jeff Fisher said CB Nick Harper (forearm) will regain his starting job from CB Roderick Hood when he is [ More ]

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