20-Nov-2009 17:35pm | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RealTime Fantasy Sports Draft Guide
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Arizona Atlanta Baltimore Buffalo Carolina Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland Dallas Denver Detroit Green Bay Houston Indianapolis Jacksonville Kansas City Miami Minnesota New Orleans New England New York Giants New York Jets Oakland Philadelphia Pittsburgh San Diego Seattle San Francisco St Louis Tampa Bay Tennessee Washington Law of AveragesBy Jeff Paur RealTime Fantasy Sports You don't want to field an average fantasy team, but knowing what average is, can be the difference between finishing first and last. If you know what is average, than you can strive to be above-average. So knowing your fantasy football scoring inside and out can be a huge difference maker for owners. Using the rules for the World Championship of Fantasy Football scoring, we came up with the average scores you should expect from each position, using last year's stats. This is a great way to formulate your draft strategy for the coming season. We broke down each position average, and how that should affect your draft. Remember, every league's rules are different, but this format is pretty similar to what most leagues are running these days. The scoring system is a basic set of common scoring rules. Quarterbacks get four points per touchdown pass and minus a point for every interception. The rest of the touchdowns scored are worth six points a piece. Yardage for quarterbacks is total yards thrown divided by 20 (i.e. 215 passing yards = 10.75 fantasy points). The rest of the yardage totals are total yards divided by 10 (i.e. 89 rushing yards = 8.9 fantasy points). Players also get a point per receptions (PPR), which gives receivers a little more value. Defenses/special teams get points for takeaways, sacks and are rewarded for allowing 10 or fewer points. Starting lineups are comprised of a quarterback, two running backs, three receivers, a tight end, flex spot (RB, WR or TE), kicker and defense. With those rules in place, the average scores for the starting positions are below:
Quarterback Drew Brees, as he was in most leagues, was the top rated quarterback and averaged 23.48 points per game, which was only about two points higher than the second rated QB, Aaron Rodgers. There wasn't a huge disparity from top to bottom for the No. 1 quarterbacks last season. The 12th ranked quarterback (Tyler Thigpen) averaged 16.23 points per game, which is about three points fewer than the average No. 1 starting quarterback (19.36). So this is a good example why many owners wait to grab a quarterback. The difference between Brees and Thigpen was about touchdown, but for the most part, the top 12 quarterbacks from last season scored very similar. We had seven quarterbacks average 19 points or higher. And even some of the lesser options, such as 17th rated Jason Campbell (15.02 points per game), aren't too far off the average starting quarterback numbers. Most leagues start just a quarterback, so if you don't get that elite guy or want to stock up on other positions, this statistical breakdown should make you feel better about waiting to get a quarterback come draft day. Running Back The numbers didn't show it quite as much last season, but elite running backs are a premium for fantasy owners and with good reason. Usually, the top backs score a lot more than the secondary options. Last season, DeAngelo Williams led running backs in scoring, averaging 19.28 points per game, but rookie Matt Forte wasn't too far off (19.16). Williams and Forte were the only two backs that averaged more than 19 points per game. They finished about five points higher than the 12th rated back (Marion Barber). Barber was about three points lower than the average No. 1 back. As you can tell, the disparity between the top and bottom of the No. 1 backs wasn't huge last season. It was less than a touchdown, which is a difference but not as much as it has previous seasons with guys like LaDainian Tomlinson tearing it up (10 point difference at times). The No. 2 RB spot was even closer with the difference between the top scorer (Marshawn Lynch) and last guy in that group (Ryan Grant) about three points. The No. 2 RB spot averaged 12.87 points per game. There were 16 backs that averaged between 10 and 13 points per game last season. Either way, getting the top guys in both groups or getting two backs that produce like No. 1 options can be a difference maker for fantasy teams. And this is why many teams live by the rule of taking two backs with their first two picks. Receiver With more and more leagues going with a PPR format, No. 1 receivers are getting picked sooner and sooner. And with good reason. Andre Johnson, the No. 1 WR last season, averaged 20.16 points per game, which was more than the top scoring running back. The No. 1 WR spot averaged 16.78 points per game, just a few tenths of a point lower than the No. 1 RB position. So it is pretty obvious, receiver isn't a position to sit on anymore. The top guys can be difference makers, especially in a PPR format. No. 1 receivers averaged about three points per week more than No. 2 WR, which isn't a huge disparity but decent enough. Getting two No. 1s on your team can give you a six point advantage over a team that fills their roster with mediocre options at receiver. Using this strategy can pay off for fantasy teams. The No. 2 WR spot averaged 13.66 points. This was actually more than the No. 2 RB position (12.87). The receiver position probably is deeper than most, though, with 35 players averaging double-digit points. But the elite options can carry a fantasy team. There were 10 players averaging 15 or more points, so getting elite options at receiver can be a big plus for fantasy teams. If you have two receivers getting you 15 or more points, you are producing good numbers most weeks. The No. 3 WR sees a bit of a dropoff from the top two receiver spots, averaging 11.1 points per game. This is almost a full touchdown less than the No. 1 WR spot. And there are a lot of receivers that fall around the 11 points per game spot. There were 18 receivers that scored between nine and 11 points. After getting past the top options at receiver, the rest of the field becomes pretty muddled. There is a good chance you can find an 11-point receiver in the later rounds or even on the waiver wire, so don't reach too soon come draft day. Tight End The tight end position is top heavy. A No. 1 tight end only averaged 10.43 points per game, which is actually about the same as the No. 3 WR spot. But the top tight end, Tony Gonzalez, scored 16.36 points per week. Gonzalez played more like a top receiver, which makes him a valuable commodity for fantasy teams. He scored almost nine points per game more than the 12th rated tight end (Tony Scheffler). There were six tight ends that scored 10 or more points per game. But after the top six, we had 15 players score between six and nine points per week. The numbers were very similar after the top players at the position. If you don't get an elite tight end, you might as well just wait and fill out your roster later in your draft. Once you get past guys like Gonzalez and Jason Witten, the rest of the options become eerily similar. Getting a point or two more at tight end at the expense of your No. 2 running back spot or at receiver doesn't sound like a good idea. Kicker 8The kicker position is a great example of a position you can wait several rounds to fill unless your league is big on kicking scoring. Stephen Gostkowski led kickers in scoring, finishing with 168 fantasy points. But Gostkowksi averaged 10.5 points per game, about two more than Kris Brown (8.9), who finished 12th in kicker scoring. And even the 27th rated kicker, Jason Hanson, wasn't too far off from the league leader, averaging 7.28 points per game. Again, that is roughly three less per game than the league leader. Kickers are a dime a dozen in fantasy land, so don't reach too early for one. You are better served trying to acquire depth at key positions like running back, receiver and even quarterback. Defense/Special Teams Defense/special teams is similar to the kicker spot, at least in this format. The Eagles and Ravens were the top scoring defenses, averaging more than nine points per game. But after those two teams, a whooping 21 teams averaged between six and nine points per week. If you don't get the Eagles or Ravens or whoever you have rated tops on your board this season, you might as well wait to fill out your roster. The scoring difference is minimal at the defense position - for the most part. Again, know your league scoring. Every league is different, so defenses could be much more valuable in your league. What we learned . . . In closing, the moral of the story is to know your league scoring. It would be great to breakdown all the scoring averages at each position in every league you play, but most don't have that kind of time. We just suggest you have an idea of what each position average should be for your team and formulate a draft strategy from that. This league's scoring is pretty similar to many standard leagues, so hopefully you get an idea of position importance for your impending draft.
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