20-Nov-2009 17:20pm | |
RealTime Fantasy Sports Draft Guide
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Arizona Atlanta Baltimore Buffalo Carolina Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland Dallas Denver Detroit Green Bay Houston Indianapolis Jacksonville Kansas City Miami Minnesota New Orleans New England New York Giants New York Jets Oakland Philadelphia Pittsburgh San Diego Seattle San Francisco St Louis Tampa Bay Tennessee Washington OvervaluedBy Jeff Paur RealTime Fantasy Sports This is nothing new, but every season there are guys in your draft that go higher than they should. Usually, this is a player that is coming off a career season or is getting a lot of hype for various reasons (i.e. expanded role, fast finish). Whatever the reason, try to identify those players and make sure you don't reach too soon. We aren't saying avoid these players altogether, but don't get caught up in the hype and reach for them too soon. It is always a good idea to take a look at an Average Draft Position Report to make sure you aren't reaching too soon for a player. Below is our list of some overvalued players for the coming season. Jay Cutler, QB, Bears. Cutler whined his way out of Denver. He might be regretting this by the end of the coming season. He moves to a much worse offense, having little to work with at receiver. And the Bears should have a more conservative approach than the Broncos, focusing more on the run. Cutler will have his big games, but going from Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal to Devin Hester and Earl Bennett is going to have an adverse impact on his stats. Don't take Cutler as a sure-fire No. 1 with his new team. 
Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys. Jones was hurt much of last season, but did some good things when playing, showing his big-play ability. But he still has Marion Barber and Tashard Choice to compete with for carries. Keep this in mind come draft day. He'll have some big games because of his big-play potential, but he'll also disappear some weeks, competing for carries with two solid backs. Jones is more of a No. 3 or 4 back for fantasy teams. Matt Cassel, QB, Chiefs. We all saw what Cassel did last season, but remember, he posted his huge numbers with likely the best offense in the league. This season, he is the starter from day one, but sees a dropoff at receiver. Dwayne Bowe is very good, but after that, the Chiefs have a lot of question marks. Don't count on Cassel repeating last season with his new team. He'll be alright, but consider him a low-end No. 1 or solid No. 2. There is a good chance some owners will look at Cassel as a top starter after last season. Marques Colston, WR, Saints. Sure, Colston is a fine No. 1 receiver, but for fantasy teams, there are a few more question marks surrounding Colston than your typical No. 1 receiver. He has a played a full season once in three years. And the Saints throw often, but spread the ball to a host of receivers, which will get Colston lost in the shuffle at times. He'll be one of the first 10 receivers off the board come draft day, but we aren't sure we would go that high on a guy with a few more issues than your typical top receiver. Roy Williams, WR, Cowboys. Williams gets a chance to be the No. 1 receiver in Dallas. He has all sorts of upside for the coming season, getting the opportunity to be the go-to receiver in a good Cowboys passing game. And he'll be a No. 1 fantasy receiver in most drafts. We aren't sure we would go that soon on Williams, though. He has enjoyed just one big season in his career, posting 1,310 yards in '06. But that was a Mike Martz offense, an offense that threw a ton. And besides that season, Williams doesn't have a 1,000-yard season in four years. He actually has less than 900 yards in his other four seasons. The potential is there, but Williams also has a good chance to flop if you take him too soon. Consider him a No. 2 for your team, but don't go much sooner than that. 
Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints. Thomas is another guy with all sorts of upside and potential, but he also has some issues. Thomas hasn't proven to stay healthy over the course of a full season. And the Saints aren't just going to hand him all the carries with Reggie Bush around. Thomas did carry fantasy teams down the stretch last season, which won't be forgotten, but counting on him as your No. 2 back could haunt you for the coming season. He is far from a sure thing. You can't reach for guys too soon just based on upside. Santonio Holmes, WR, Steelers. Holmes had an MVP performance in the Super Bowl, helping carry his team to victory. But Holmes still hasn't put together a breakout regular season. He has failed to top 1,000 yards in three seasons and his career high in touchdowns is eight. So don't be the owner to draft him based on his huge game in the Super Bowl. We still like his potential for a breakout season, but draft him more so based off his past numbers, which merit taking him as a No. 2 receiver. Thomas Jones, RB, Jets. Jones had a monster season last year, setting career highs nearly across the board. We doubt he matches that this season, though. He is 31 years old and lost his starting quarterback from last season, Brett Favre. While Favre didn't have a monster season, he still took some of the pressure of Jones, helping create more space for him to run. Jones seems setup for a big dropoff in production, making him a guy to let someone else use a second or third-round pick.
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