2014 DRAFT GUIDE
Overvalued Players

2012-07-23 11:33:07
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
RealTime Fantasy Sports

Lynch has some concerns

It really isn't that hard to figure out, but if you haven't, winning your fantasy league is likely going to come down to you getting players that are undervalued come draft day. The teams that got tight end Rob Gronkowski in the seventh or eighth round last season won a lot of games. But on the flip side of that, teams that took running back Rashard Mendenhall in the late first or early second round last year lost a lot of games.

A key to winning your league is not only identifying undervalued players, but also avoiding the overvalued players. There are going to be a group of players that go higher than they should. We are here to fill you in on some of those players for this coming season. You don't have to avoid these guys altogether, but don't reach for them too soon, which is likely what you are going to have to do if you want them on your roster.

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams. There aren't a ton of backs getting about all the carries in their offense but Jackson is one of them, which is likely why he is getting a lot of love this year. But it seems a high price to take Jackson in the second or third round as he carries a lot of risk. His yardage numbers are good but Jackson isn't a high-scoring back, having 16 touchdowns the last three seasons. Plus, he has 2,138 carries in eight seasons, which is a ton of work. Jackson also turns 29 during the season, nearing that age of 30, which normally means the end of the line for fantasy backs. He has a lot of red flags for the coming season.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks. Lynch had a career season last year so you'll have to spend a lot more to get him this season. He is going in the second round of most drafts. We think that might be a little high for a guy that really has been a fantasy force just one time during his career. Plus, he is likely going to be suspended a few games for an off-the-field incident. He carries more risk than your normal second-round pick. Remember, he has topped the 1,000-yard mark three times but his yardage numbers aren't near those of the top backs in fantasy. We think a repeat of 2011 is unlikely for Lynch.

Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys. Bryant, like Britt, is a talented but troubled player off the field. He just doesn't seem to get "it." He could be a fantasy force but having to use a third or fourth round draft pick to get Bryant doesn't seem worth the risk for fantasy teams. He seems to be a bit of a ticking time bomb. You are better served going for high upside players without the off-the-field risks.

Doug Martin, RB, Bucs. Martin is an exciting prospect for the Bucs. They hope he is a top dual threat in their offense, which should be run heavy. But he hasn't been guaranteed the starting spot and even if he starts, LeGarrette Blount could be the goal-line back, which obviously hurts Martin's fantasy value. Even with these question marks, Martin is going 39 in drafts right now. There are a lot more proven players going after him (i.e. Michael Turner, Frank Gore). You have to take some risks but we aren't sure this high of a pick on Martin is worth taking unless you have some top options ahead of him on the depth chart.

Fred Jackson, RB, Bills. Jackson was having his best season as a pro before breaking his leg in Week 11. He was as productive as any back in the league. But Jackson is 31 years old and coming off a fairly major injury. He also has just one 1,000-yard season for his career and his best touchdown total is seven. We aren't sure using a third-round pick on him is good value for fantasy teams. He might have a few big games but carries a lot of risk, especially if you consider C.J. Spiller nipping on his heels for playing time.

Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears. Marshall heads to Chicago to take over as their No. 1 receiver, getting reunited with Jay Cutler. These are all positives for Marshall. The problem is Marshall is getting drafted like an elite fantasy receiver. He has really good value in PPR formats but even in those leagues, his value isn't as high as the elite guys. We have seen him go in the second round in a lot of drafts, which just seems too high for Marshall at the moment. Remember, he has double-digit scores just once and seven or fewer scores all but one season.

Kenny Britt, WR, Titans. Britt had another off-the-field incident, likely resulting in a suspension. He just can't seem to stay out of trouble, making him a huge risk for fantasy teams. Plus, he is coming off a major knee injury, which is another huge concern. His ADP is likely to fall but right now, Britt is going 58th overall, which is too rich for our blood. Britt certainly has a ton of upside when playing but he probably isn't worth the risk at this point of the draft.

Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots. Ridley is certainly worth a flier come draft day but taking him before the 10th round seems a bit of a reach for Ridley (89 ADP). He is far from a sure thing to start and even if he does start, when was the last time the Patriots produced a top fantasy back? If you can get him later, go for it. There is upside for Ridley but reaching for him before the 10th round seems too risky.

If you have any questions or comments, please email Jeff Paur at jeff@rtsports.com

Fantasy Football Player Notes RSS FeedPLAYER NOTES

Giovani BernardOct 31 11:12a

Cincinnati Bengals RB Giovani Bernard (hip, shoulder) is unlikely to play in Week 9.

Trent RichardsonOct 31 10:32a

Indianapolis Colts RB Trent Richardson (hamstring) is not on the injury report for Week 9, and should be able to play Monday, Nov. 3.

Rashad JenningsOct 31 10:12a

New York Giants RB Rashad Jennings (knee) is aiming to return for the Week 10 game against the Seattle Seahawks.

Ronnie HillmanOct 31 09:12a

Updating previous reports, Denver Broncos RB Ronnie Hillman (shoulder) is expected to have his normal workload in Week 9, despite his limited practice repetitions.

DeAngelo HallOct 31 08:52a

Washington Redskins CB DeAngelo Hall (Achilles') tore his Achilles' again at home and had surgery to repair it Thursday, Oct. 30.

Ron JohnsonOct 30 08:22p

Seattle Seahawks CB Richard Sherman (back), DE Michael Bennett (toe), C Stephen Schilling (knee), CB Tharold Simon (knee), CB Byron Maxwell (calf), LB Malcolm Smith (groin), DT Jordan Hill [ More ]

Patrick WillisOct 30 07:52p

San Francisco 49res CB Tramaine Brock (toe) and LB Patrick Willis (toe) were limited in practice Thursday, Oct. 30. S Jimmie Ward (quadriceps) and CB Chris Culliver (hamstring) practiced in full.

Chris MatthewsOct 30 07:42p

The Seattle Seahawks re-signed WR Chris Matthews and TE Brett Brackett to their practice squad Thursday, Oct. 30.

Scott WellsOct 30 07:42p

St. Louis Rams OG Rodger Saffold (shoulder), CB Janoris Jenkins (knee), DT Aaron Donald (shoulder) and S Cody Davis (concussion) did not practice Thursday, Oct. 30. S Rodney McLeod [ More ]

Luke JoeckelOct 30 07:22p

Jacksonville Jaguars OT Luke Joeckel (concussion) has recovered nicely from the concussion he suffered in Week 8, and he could play in Week 9 against the Cincinnati Bengals. Joeckel [ More ]

Pierre ThomasOct 30 07:22p

New Orleans Saints RBs Khiry Robinson (forearm) and Pierre Thomas (shoulder) are both inactive in Week 9 against the Carolina Panthers Thursday, Oct. 30.

Arian FosterOct 30 07:12p

Houston Texans RB Arian Foster (knee) was limited in practice Thursday, Oct. 30.

Johnathan JosephOct 30 07:12p

Houston Texans LBs Brian Cushing (knee), Brooks Reed (groin) and Jeff Tarpinian (knee) did not practice Thursday, Oct. 30. RB Alfred Blue (ankle), LB Jadeveon Clowney (knee), CB Johnathan [ More ]

David HawthorneOct 30 07:12p

The New Orleans Saints have declared LB Austin Johnson, LB David Hawthorne, C Jonathan Goodwin, RB Khiry Robinson, WR Nick Toon, RB Pierre Thomas, CB Stanley Jean-Baptiste inactive for Week 9.

Amini SilatoluOct 30 07:12p

The Carolina Panthers have declared OG Amini Silatolu, CB Bene Benwikere, OT Byron Bell, RB Fozzy Whittaker, WR Philly Brown, FS Thomas DeCoud, OG Trai Turner inactive for Week 9.

Justin TuckOct 30 06:42p

Oakland Raiders TE David Ausberry (foot), WR Vincent Brown (hamstring), CB Chimdi Chekwa (hamstring), CB Keith McGill (groin), CB Carlos Rogers (knee) and WR Kenbrell Thompkins (non-injury) did not [ More ]

Anthony CollinsOct 30 06:42p

Tampa Bay Buccaneers OT Anthony Collins (foot) and LB Brandon Magee (knee) did not practice Thursday, Oct. 30. C Evan Dietrich-Smith (knee), WR Trindon Holliday (hamstring) and DE Michael Johnson (hand) were limited.

Brian RobisonOct 30 06:32p

Minnesota Vikings DT Shariff Floyd (ankle, knee), TE Chase Ford (foot), CB Jabari Price (hamstring), CB Josh Robinson (ankle) and DE Brian Robison (glute) were limited in practice Thursday, [ More ]

Louis VasquezOct 30 06:22p

Denver Broncos S Quinton Carter (hamstring) did not practice Thursday, Oct. 30. LB Lamin Barrow (concussion), TE Virgil Green (calf), LB Steven Johnson (ankle) and OG Louis Vasquez (illness) [ More ]

Ronnie HillmanOct 30 06:22p

Denver Broncos RB Ronnie Hillman (shoulder) was limited in practice for the second straight day Thursday, Oct. 30.

Billy WinnOct 30 06:22p

Cleveland Browns WR Rodney Smith (hamstring) and DE Phil Taylor (knee) did not practice Thursday, Oct. 30. DE Desmond Bryant (wrist), S Jim Leonhard (ankle), LB Barkevious Mingo (shoulder), [ More ]

Jordan CameronOct 30 06:12p

Cleveland Browns TE Jordan Cameron (concussion) did not practice Thursday, Oct. 30.

Chris JohnsonOct 30 06:12p

New York Jets RB Chris Johnson, who carried the ball just three times for seven yards in Week 8, said he's frustrated with his limited role in the offense. [ More ]

Tom CrabtreeOct 30 06:02p

The New Orleans Saints waived TE Tom Crabtree Thursday, Oct. 30.

Patrick PetersonOct 30 05:42p

Arizona Cardinals S Tony Jefferson (head) and TE Troy Niklas (ankle) were limited in practice Thursday, Oct. 30. DE Calais Campbell (knee), LB Kenny Demens (knee), S Rashad Johnson [ More ]

Cyrus GrayOct 30 05:22p

Kansas City Chiefs CB Jamell Fleming (hamstring) and LB Josh Martin (hamstring, knee) did not practice Thursday, Oct. 30. S Eric Berry (ankle) and CB Christopher Owens (knee) were [ More ]

Demario DavisOct 30 05:22p

New York Jets CB Darrin Walls (calf, knee) did not practice Thursday, Oct. 30. OT Oday Aboushi (shoulder), CB Phillip Adams (groin), LB Antwan Barnes (knee), OG Willie Colon [ More ]

Keenan RobinsonOct 30 05:12p

Washington Redskins S Ryan Clark (ankle, shoulder) and OT Trent Williams (knee) were limited in practice Thursday, Oct. 30. LB Ryan Kerrigan (wrist), LB Trent Murphy (knee), CB Tracy [ More ]

R. Griffin IIIOct 30 05:12p

Washington Redskins QB Robert Griffin III (ankle) practiced in full for the second straight day Thursday, Oct. 30.

R. Griffin IIIOct 30 05:02p

Washington Redskins QB Robert Griffin III (ankle) will start against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 9, barring any setbacks this week in practice, according to head coach Jay Gruden. [ More ]

Mike PounceyOct 30 05:02p

Miami Dolphins OG Daryn Colledge (illness, back) LB Chris McCain (foot) and TE Dion Sims (toe) did not practice Thursday, Oct. 30. OG Nate Garner (neck), LB Koa Misi [ More ]

Andre BranchOct 30 04:42p

Jacksonville Jaguars CB Will Blackmon (finger), DE Andre Branch (groin), DE Chris Clemons (non-injury), LB Geno Hayes (non-injury) and DT Roy Miller (non-injury) didn't practice Thursday, Oct. 30. CB [ More ]

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