2015 DRAFT GUIDE
Overvalued Players

2012-07-23 11:33:07
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
RealTime Fantasy Sports

Lynch has some concerns

It really isn't that hard to figure out, but if you haven't, winning your fantasy league is likely going to come down to you getting players that are undervalued come draft day. The teams that got tight end Rob Gronkowski in the seventh or eighth round last season won a lot of games. But on the flip side of that, teams that took running back Rashard Mendenhall in the late first or early second round last year lost a lot of games.

A key to winning your league is not only identifying undervalued players, but also avoiding the overvalued players. There are going to be a group of players that go higher than they should. We are here to fill you in on some of those players for this coming season. You don't have to avoid these guys altogether, but don't reach for them too soon, which is likely what you are going to have to do if you want them on your roster.

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams. There aren't a ton of backs getting about all the carries in their offense but Jackson is one of them, which is likely why he is getting a lot of love this year. But it seems a high price to take Jackson in the second or third round as he carries a lot of risk. His yardage numbers are good but Jackson isn't a high-scoring back, having 16 touchdowns the last three seasons. Plus, he has 2,138 carries in eight seasons, which is a ton of work. Jackson also turns 29 during the season, nearing that age of 30, which normally means the end of the line for fantasy backs. He has a lot of red flags for the coming season.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks. Lynch had a career season last year so you'll have to spend a lot more to get him this season. He is going in the second round of most drafts. We think that might be a little high for a guy that really has been a fantasy force just one time during his career. Plus, he is likely going to be suspended a few games for an off-the-field incident. He carries more risk than your normal second-round pick. Remember, he has topped the 1,000-yard mark three times but his yardage numbers aren't near those of the top backs in fantasy. We think a repeat of 2011 is unlikely for Lynch.

Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys. Bryant, like Britt, is a talented but troubled player off the field. He just doesn't seem to get "it." He could be a fantasy force but having to use a third or fourth round draft pick to get Bryant doesn't seem worth the risk for fantasy teams. He seems to be a bit of a ticking time bomb. You are better served going for high upside players without the off-the-field risks.

Doug Martin, RB, Bucs. Martin is an exciting prospect for the Bucs. They hope he is a top dual threat in their offense, which should be run heavy. But he hasn't been guaranteed the starting spot and even if he starts, LeGarrette Blount could be the goal-line back, which obviously hurts Martin's fantasy value. Even with these question marks, Martin is going 39 in drafts right now. There are a lot more proven players going after him (i.e. Michael Turner, Frank Gore). You have to take some risks but we aren't sure this high of a pick on Martin is worth taking unless you have some top options ahead of him on the depth chart.

Fred Jackson, RB, Bills. Jackson was having his best season as a pro before breaking his leg in Week 11. He was as productive as any back in the league. But Jackson is 31 years old and coming off a fairly major injury. He also has just one 1,000-yard season for his career and his best touchdown total is seven. We aren't sure using a third-round pick on him is good value for fantasy teams. He might have a few big games but carries a lot of risk, especially if you consider C.J. Spiller nipping on his heels for playing time.

Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears. Marshall heads to Chicago to take over as their No. 1 receiver, getting reunited with Jay Cutler. These are all positives for Marshall. The problem is Marshall is getting drafted like an elite fantasy receiver. He has really good value in PPR formats but even in those leagues, his value isn't as high as the elite guys. We have seen him go in the second round in a lot of drafts, which just seems too high for Marshall at the moment. Remember, he has double-digit scores just once and seven or fewer scores all but one season.

Kenny Britt, WR, Titans. Britt had another off-the-field incident, likely resulting in a suspension. He just can't seem to stay out of trouble, making him a huge risk for fantasy teams. Plus, he is coming off a major knee injury, which is another huge concern. His ADP is likely to fall but right now, Britt is going 58th overall, which is too rich for our blood. Britt certainly has a ton of upside when playing but he probably isn't worth the risk at this point of the draft.

Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots. Ridley is certainly worth a flier come draft day but taking him before the 10th round seems a bit of a reach for Ridley (89 ADP). He is far from a sure thing to start and even if he does start, when was the last time the Patriots produced a top fantasy back? If you can get him later, go for it. There is upside for Ridley but reaching for him before the 10th round seems too risky.

If you have any questions or comments, please email Jeff Paur at jeff@rtsports.com

Fantasy Football Player Notes RSS FeedPLAYER NOTES

Brandon ColemanSep 2 10:03p

New Orleans Saints WR Brandon Coleman has impressed QB Drew Brees during training camp and the preseason. The quarterback said Tuesday, Sept. 2, that he has a great comfort level with Coleman.

Richard RodgersSep 2 09:43p

Green Bay Packers TE Richard Rodgers is expected to see more opportunities in the passing game with WR Jordy Nelson (knee) done for the season.

Melvin GordonSep 2 08:23p

San Diego Chargers RBs Melvin Gordon, Danny Woodhead, Branden Oliver and Donald Brown will be part of a committee at running back this season, according to QB Philip Rivers. [ More ]

Randall CobbSep 2 07:23p

Green Bay Packers WR Randall Cobb (shoulder) said he'd be comfortable starting in Week 1 against the Chicago Bears even if he doesn't practice next week. However, wide receivers [ More ]

Giovani BernardSep 2 06:03p

Cincinnati Bengals RBs Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard both finished among the top-16 running backs in point-per-reception leagues last season.

Tom BradySep 2 04:33p

New England Patriots QB Tom Brady doesn't look like he'll reach a settlement with the NFL. The league and the NFL Player's Associated have not had any talks regarding [ More ]

Victor CruzSep 2 04:03p

New York Giants WR Victor Cruz (calf) is doubtful to play Week 1, according to ESPNNewYork.com's Dan Graziano. Cruz has not yet been cleared to practice and did not participate in the preseason.

LeSean McCoySep 2 01:43p

Updating an earlier report, Buffalo Bills RB LeSean McCoy (hamstring) may not be in great 'football shape' once Week 1 rolls around, according to a source. He's not at [ More ]

LeSean McCoySep 2 12:43p

Buffalo Bills RB LeSean McCoy (hamstring) seems to be in some danger of missing the season opener Sept. 13. 'Well we certainly expect him to be ready to go, [ More ]

EJ ManuelSep 2 11:33a

Buffalo Bills QB EJ Manuel is expected to remain on the team as the backup quarterback. There is growing expectations that QB Matt Cassel will be cut.

Matt CasselSep 2 09:23a

Buffalo Bills QB Matt Cassel could be cut by the team, as they are internally discussing the option.

Joseph RandleSep 2 08:33a

Dallas Cowboys RB Joseph Randle could have 10-15 carries per game with RB Darren McFadden slightly below that, in the opinion of beat writer Drew Davison

Travis CoonsSep 1 11:03p

Cleveland Browns PK Travis Coons edged out PK Carey Spear, winning the battle for the placekicking job. 'Yeah, it was close. I thought both guys handled themselves very well, [ More ]

Nick ToonSep 1 07:43p

New Orleans Saints WRs Nick Toon, Lance Lewis and R.J. Harris were released Tuesday, Sept. 1.

Randall CobbSep 1 06:23p

Green Bay Packers WR Randall Cobb (shoulder) thinks his sprained right shoulder will be good to go to play in Week 1 against the Chicago Bears in 12 days. [ More ]

James ButlerSep 1 05:53p

Green Bay Packers WR James Butler and TE Harold Spears were released Tuesday, Sept. 1.

Julius ThomasSep 1 05:23p

Jacksonville Jaguars TE Julius Thomas (finger) will undergo surgery on his injured finger Wednesday, Sept. 2, according to a source. Thomas is expected to miss four to five weeks.

Zac DysertSep 1 05:13p

Free-agent QB Zac Dysert (Broncos) was claimed by the Chicago Bears Tuesday, Sept. 1.

Tom BradySep 1 05:03p

Updating a previous report, New England Patriots QB Tom Brady will know his fate by the end of this week. Judge Richard Berman said he will issue his decision and order by that time.

Matt BlanchardSep 1 04:53p

Green Bay Packers QB Matt Blanchard was released Tuesday, Sept. 1, according to a source.

Juron CrinerSep 1 04:32p

New York Giants RB Akeem Hunt (hamstring) was waived/injured Tuesday, Sept. 1. WRs Juron Criner and Derrick X. Johnson and TE Will Tye were also waived.

Robert HerronSep 1 04:32p

Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Robert Herron was waived Tuesday, Sept. 1.

Phil TaylorSep 1 04:23p

Cleveland Browns DT Phil Taylor was released Tuesday, Sept. 1.

Junior HemingwaySep 1 04:12p

Kansas City Chiefs WR Junior Hemingway was waived Tuesday, Sept. 1.

Michael HillSep 1 04:12p

Dallas Cowboys RB Michael Hill (undisclosed) was waived/injured Tuesday, Sept. 1. WRs Antwan Goodley and David Porter and TE Brandon Barden were also waived.

Travis KelceSep 1 03:03p

Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce (ankle) would be able to play if the Chiefs had a game Tuesday, Sept. 1, according to head coach Andy Reid. Kelce is recovering from an ankle sprain.

Jarrett BoykinSep 1 03:03p

Carolina Panthers WRs Jarrett Boykin and De'Andre Presley were waived Tuesday, Sept. 1.

Jace AmaroSep 1 01:33p

New York Jets TE Jace Amaro (shoulder) will have season-ending shoulder surgery and will be placed on the Reserve/Injured list.

Erik LorigSep 1 12:33p

New Orleans Saints FB Erik Lorig was cut Tuesday, Sept. 1.

Nathan PalmerSep 1 11:53a

Denver Broncos WR Nathan Palmer was waived Tuesday, Sept. 1.

Devonta FreemanSep 1 11:32a

Atlanta Falcons RB Devonta Freeman was the most active in practice Monday, Aug. 31, that he was been since a hamstring injury Aug. 6. It's unclear whether he'll play [ More ]

Jarrett BoykinSep 1 10:33a

Carolina Panthers WR Jarrett Boykin was released Tuesday, Sept. 1.

RSS Feeds

NFL News:
 
Player Notes:
 
Forum Posts:
 

© 2015 RealTime Fantasy Sports, Inc.
Email Us  ·  Call Us 636.447.1170  ·  Lost Password
Advertising represented by USA Today Sports Media Group