2014 DRAFT GUIDE
Overvalued Players

2012-07-23 11:33:07
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
RealTime Fantasy Sports

Lynch has some concerns

It really isn't that hard to figure out, but if you haven't, winning your fantasy league is likely going to come down to you getting players that are undervalued come draft day. The teams that got tight end Rob Gronkowski in the seventh or eighth round last season won a lot of games. But on the flip side of that, teams that took running back Rashard Mendenhall in the late first or early second round last year lost a lot of games.

A key to winning your league is not only identifying undervalued players, but also avoiding the overvalued players. There are going to be a group of players that go higher than they should. We are here to fill you in on some of those players for this coming season. You don't have to avoid these guys altogether, but don't reach for them too soon, which is likely what you are going to have to do if you want them on your roster.

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams. There aren't a ton of backs getting about all the carries in their offense but Jackson is one of them, which is likely why he is getting a lot of love this year. But it seems a high price to take Jackson in the second or third round as he carries a lot of risk. His yardage numbers are good but Jackson isn't a high-scoring back, having 16 touchdowns the last three seasons. Plus, he has 2,138 carries in eight seasons, which is a ton of work. Jackson also turns 29 during the season, nearing that age of 30, which normally means the end of the line for fantasy backs. He has a lot of red flags for the coming season.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks. Lynch had a career season last year so you'll have to spend a lot more to get him this season. He is going in the second round of most drafts. We think that might be a little high for a guy that really has been a fantasy force just one time during his career. Plus, he is likely going to be suspended a few games for an off-the-field incident. He carries more risk than your normal second-round pick. Remember, he has topped the 1,000-yard mark three times but his yardage numbers aren't near those of the top backs in fantasy. We think a repeat of 2011 is unlikely for Lynch.

Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys. Bryant, like Britt, is a talented but troubled player off the field. He just doesn't seem to get "it." He could be a fantasy force but having to use a third or fourth round draft pick to get Bryant doesn't seem worth the risk for fantasy teams. He seems to be a bit of a ticking time bomb. You are better served going for high upside players without the off-the-field risks.

Doug Martin, RB, Bucs. Martin is an exciting prospect for the Bucs. They hope he is a top dual threat in their offense, which should be run heavy. But he hasn't been guaranteed the starting spot and even if he starts, LeGarrette Blount could be the goal-line back, which obviously hurts Martin's fantasy value. Even with these question marks, Martin is going 39 in drafts right now. There are a lot more proven players going after him (i.e. Michael Turner, Frank Gore). You have to take some risks but we aren't sure this high of a pick on Martin is worth taking unless you have some top options ahead of him on the depth chart.

Fred Jackson, RB, Bills. Jackson was having his best season as a pro before breaking his leg in Week 11. He was as productive as any back in the league. But Jackson is 31 years old and coming off a fairly major injury. He also has just one 1,000-yard season for his career and his best touchdown total is seven. We aren't sure using a third-round pick on him is good value for fantasy teams. He might have a few big games but carries a lot of risk, especially if you consider C.J. Spiller nipping on his heels for playing time.

Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears. Marshall heads to Chicago to take over as their No. 1 receiver, getting reunited with Jay Cutler. These are all positives for Marshall. The problem is Marshall is getting drafted like an elite fantasy receiver. He has really good value in PPR formats but even in those leagues, his value isn't as high as the elite guys. We have seen him go in the second round in a lot of drafts, which just seems too high for Marshall at the moment. Remember, he has double-digit scores just once and seven or fewer scores all but one season.

Kenny Britt, WR, Titans. Britt had another off-the-field incident, likely resulting in a suspension. He just can't seem to stay out of trouble, making him a huge risk for fantasy teams. Plus, he is coming off a major knee injury, which is another huge concern. His ADP is likely to fall but right now, Britt is going 58th overall, which is too rich for our blood. Britt certainly has a ton of upside when playing but he probably isn't worth the risk at this point of the draft.

Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots. Ridley is certainly worth a flier come draft day but taking him before the 10th round seems a bit of a reach for Ridley (89 ADP). He is far from a sure thing to start and even if he does start, when was the last time the Patriots produced a top fantasy back? If you can get him later, go for it. There is upside for Ridley but reaching for him before the 10th round seems too risky.

If you have any questions or comments, please email Jeff Paur at jeff@rtsports.com

Fantasy Football Player Notes RSS FeedPLAYER NOTES

Anthony DixonOct 22 02:03p

Buffalo Bills RB Anthony Dixon is working with the starters in practice Wednesday, Oct. 22. RB Bryce Brown is working with the second-string offense.

William PowellOct 22 02:03p

The Detroit Lions re-signed S Jerome Couplin III to their practice squad Wednesday, Oct. 22, and released RB William Powell from the practice squad in a corresponding move.

John SullivanOct 22 01:53p

Minnesota Vikings C John Sullivan (concussion) passed his first concussion test, and head coach Mike Zimmer thinks Sullivan will be fine for Week 8 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. [ More ]

Jamaal CharlesOct 22 01:53p

Kansas City Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles (concussion) was cleared to practice Wednesday, Oct. 22, but the team will continue to monitor him throughout the week.

Josh McCownOct 22 01:43p

Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Josh McCown (thumb) is scheduled to throw Wednesday, Oct. 22, but is not expected to start in Week 8.

R. Griffin IIIOct 22 01:43p

Washington Redskins QB Robert Griffin III's (ankle) status for Week 8 against the Dallas Cowboys will be determined by team doctors, according to head coach Jay Gruden. 'It's up [ More ]

Mike GlennonOct 22 01:33p

Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Mike Glennon is expected to be the starting quarterback in Week 8.

Marcus LattimoreOct 22 01:33p

San Francisco 49ers RB Marcus Lattimore (knee) will be cleared to practice from the Non-Football Injury list following the team's Week 8 bye. The team plans to activate him [ More ]

Austin DavisOct 22 01:23p

St. Louis Rams QB Austin Davis was 18-for-21 for 152 yards in the team's Week 7 win over the Seattle Seahawks, and former QB Brett Favre thinks Davis could [ More ]

Garrett ReynoldsOct 22 01:23p

Detroit Lions OT LaAdrian Waddle (concussion), who missed three games this year with a calf ailment, didn't practice Wednesday, Oct. 22, due to a concussion. The team used a [ More ]

Colt McCoyOct 22 01:13p

Washington Redskins QBs Robert Griffin III (ankle) and Colt McCoy hopefully will find out the starting quarterback for Week 8 by Thursday, Oct. 23, according to head coach Jay [ More ]

DeAngelo WilliamsOct 22 12:53p

Carolina Panthers RB DeAngelo Williams (ankle) is not participating in practice Wednesday, Oct. 22.

Calvin JohnsonOct 22 12:53p

Detroit Lions WR Calvin Johnson (ankle) was limited during practice Wednesday, Oct. 22.

Reggie BushOct 22 12:43p

Detroit Lions RB Reggie Bush (ankle) was limited during practice Wednesday, Oct. 22.

J. BabineauxOct 22 12:33p

Atlanta Falcons DT Jonathan Babineaux (foot) did not participate in practice Wednesday, Oct. 22. OG Justin Blalock (back) and LB Prince Shembo (knee) were limited during practice.

Richard GordonOct 22 12:23p

The Tennessee Titans signed free-agent TE Richard Gordon (Chiefs) Wednesday, Oct 22. Terms of the contract were not disclosed.

Derek MoyeOct 22 12:23p

The Tennessee Titans signed free-agent WR Derek Moye (Steelers) and LB Nate Askew (Buccaneers) to their practice squad Wednesday, Oct. 22.

Anthony DixonOct 22 10:33a

The Buffalo Bills love RB Anthony Dixon, and he's likely to lead the way at running back over RB Bryce Brown.

L. WashingtonOct 22 10:13a

The Cleveland Browns re-signed DT Jacobbi McDaniel and WR L'Damian Washington to the practice squad Wednesday, Oct. 22.

Brandon PettigrewOct 22 10:13a

Detroit Lions DE Ziggy Ansah (toe), TE Joseph Fauria (ankle), OT LaAdrian Waddle (calf) and TE Brandon Pettigrew (undisclosed) are out of practice Wednesday, Oct. 22.

Jeff DempsOct 22 09:54a

The Indianapolis Colts signed free-agents RB Jeff Demps (Buccaneers) and Konrad Reuland (Jets) to their practice squad and released QB Dominique Davis and WR Chandler X. Jones from the practice squad Tuesday, Oct. 21.

Jon BeasonOct 22 09:43a

New York Giants LB Jon Beason (toe) said it was 50-50 whether he returns this year and will have to get clearance from a foot specialist to make sure [ More ]

Harry DouglasOct 22 08:53a

Atlanta Falcons WR Harry Douglas (foot) will not practice Wednesday, Oct. 22. Douglas traveled to London with the team and hopes to play in Week 8.

Dion LewisOct 22 03:03a

In their bye week, the New York Giants are working out several free agents. In addition to QB Terrelle Pryor, who was previously mentioned, other free agents include TE [ More ]

Tony FiammettaOct 22 02:43a

The New York Jets invited four players to work out recently, including free-agent FB Tony Fiammetta (Bears), DB Chris Prosinski (Jaguars), CB Johnny Adams (Raiders) and CB Marcus Cromartie [ More ]

DeMarcus Van DykeOct 22 02:43a

The Miami Dolphins brought in five players for workouts recently, including free-agent DB Tommie Campbell (Titans), DB T.J. Heath (Browns), DB Curtis Marsh (Eagles), WR Derek Moye (Steelers) and [ More ]

Dwayne AllenOct 21 10:23p

Indianapolis Colts TE Dwayne Allen said he was not expecting to be as involved in the red zone as he has been this season. He has five touchdowns in [ More ]

Carson PalmerOct 21 10:03p

Arizona Cardinals QB Carson Palmer (shoulder) threw at team headquarters Tuesday, Oct. 21, and is 'real close' to 100% percent, according to head coach Bruce Arians.

Troy NiklasOct 21 09:33p

Arizona Cardinals TE Troy Niklas (ankle) is unlikely to play in Week 8, head coach Bruce Arians said Tuesday, Oct. 21.

Calais CampbellOct 21 09:23p

Arizona Cardinals DE Calais Campbell (knee) could return for the team's Week 8 game against the Philadelphia Eagles, according to head coach Bruce Arians.

Paul RichardsonOct 21 08:33p

Seattle Seahawks WR Paul Richardson caught four passes on five targets for 33 yards in Week 7. Richardson was targeted just once in the team's first five games.

Chandler JonesOct 21 07:23p

New England Patriots DE Chandler Jones (hip) did not practice Tuesday, Oct. 21 with a hip injury, according to a source. Jones is expected to miss a month or so.

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