2014 DRAFT GUIDE
Overvalued Players

2012-07-23 11:33:07
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
RealTime Fantasy Sports

Lynch has some concerns

It really isn't that hard to figure out, but if you haven't, winning your fantasy league is likely going to come down to you getting players that are undervalued come draft day. The teams that got tight end Rob Gronkowski in the seventh or eighth round last season won a lot of games. But on the flip side of that, teams that took running back Rashard Mendenhall in the late first or early second round last year lost a lot of games.

A key to winning your league is not only identifying undervalued players, but also avoiding the overvalued players. There are going to be a group of players that go higher than they should. We are here to fill you in on some of those players for this coming season. You don't have to avoid these guys altogether, but don't reach for them too soon, which is likely what you are going to have to do if you want them on your roster.

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams. There aren't a ton of backs getting about all the carries in their offense but Jackson is one of them, which is likely why he is getting a lot of love this year. But it seems a high price to take Jackson in the second or third round as he carries a lot of risk. His yardage numbers are good but Jackson isn't a high-scoring back, having 16 touchdowns the last three seasons. Plus, he has 2,138 carries in eight seasons, which is a ton of work. Jackson also turns 29 during the season, nearing that age of 30, which normally means the end of the line for fantasy backs. He has a lot of red flags for the coming season.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks. Lynch had a career season last year so you'll have to spend a lot more to get him this season. He is going in the second round of most drafts. We think that might be a little high for a guy that really has been a fantasy force just one time during his career. Plus, he is likely going to be suspended a few games for an off-the-field incident. He carries more risk than your normal second-round pick. Remember, he has topped the 1,000-yard mark three times but his yardage numbers aren't near those of the top backs in fantasy. We think a repeat of 2011 is unlikely for Lynch.

Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys. Bryant, like Britt, is a talented but troubled player off the field. He just doesn't seem to get "it." He could be a fantasy force but having to use a third or fourth round draft pick to get Bryant doesn't seem worth the risk for fantasy teams. He seems to be a bit of a ticking time bomb. You are better served going for high upside players without the off-the-field risks.

Doug Martin, RB, Bucs. Martin is an exciting prospect for the Bucs. They hope he is a top dual threat in their offense, which should be run heavy. But he hasn't been guaranteed the starting spot and even if he starts, LeGarrette Blount could be the goal-line back, which obviously hurts Martin's fantasy value. Even with these question marks, Martin is going 39 in drafts right now. There are a lot more proven players going after him (i.e. Michael Turner, Frank Gore). You have to take some risks but we aren't sure this high of a pick on Martin is worth taking unless you have some top options ahead of him on the depth chart.

Fred Jackson, RB, Bills. Jackson was having his best season as a pro before breaking his leg in Week 11. He was as productive as any back in the league. But Jackson is 31 years old and coming off a fairly major injury. He also has just one 1,000-yard season for his career and his best touchdown total is seven. We aren't sure using a third-round pick on him is good value for fantasy teams. He might have a few big games but carries a lot of risk, especially if you consider C.J. Spiller nipping on his heels for playing time.

Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears. Marshall heads to Chicago to take over as their No. 1 receiver, getting reunited with Jay Cutler. These are all positives for Marshall. The problem is Marshall is getting drafted like an elite fantasy receiver. He has really good value in PPR formats but even in those leagues, his value isn't as high as the elite guys. We have seen him go in the second round in a lot of drafts, which just seems too high for Marshall at the moment. Remember, he has double-digit scores just once and seven or fewer scores all but one season.

Kenny Britt, WR, Titans. Britt had another off-the-field incident, likely resulting in a suspension. He just can't seem to stay out of trouble, making him a huge risk for fantasy teams. Plus, he is coming off a major knee injury, which is another huge concern. His ADP is likely to fall but right now, Britt is going 58th overall, which is too rich for our blood. Britt certainly has a ton of upside when playing but he probably isn't worth the risk at this point of the draft.

Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots. Ridley is certainly worth a flier come draft day but taking him before the 10th round seems a bit of a reach for Ridley (89 ADP). He is far from a sure thing to start and even if he does start, when was the last time the Patriots produced a top fantasy back? If you can get him later, go for it. There is upside for Ridley but reaching for him before the 10th round seems too risky.

If you have any questions or comments, please email Jeff Paur at jeff@rtsports.com

Fantasy Football Player Notes RSS FeedPLAYER NOTES

Dane FletcherMay 27 02:33a

Free-agent LB Dane Fletcher (Buccaneers) has returned to the New England Patriots on a one-year contract.

Devonta FreemanMay 26 09:53p

Atlanta Falcons RB Devonta Freeman worked with the first-team offense during organized team activities Tuesday, May 26.

Charles SimsMay 26 05:33p

Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Charles Sims has a solid chance of beating out RB Doug Martin for Tampa Bay's starting running back gig, according to Pat Yasinskas of ESPN.com.

A.J. JenkinsMay 26 01:02p

Free-agent WR A.J. Jenkins (Chiefs) signed an undisclosed deal with the Dallas Cowboys Tuesday, May 26, according to a source. Jenkins was the 30th overall pick by the San [ More ]

Adrian PetersonMay 26 08:43a

Updating an ongoing story, the Dallas Cowboys have moved on from the idea of trading for Minnesota Vikings RB Adrian Peterson, despite persistent rumors, according to The Dallas Morning [ More ]

A.J. McCarronMay 25 10:37p

Cincinnati Bengals QB AJ McCarron (shoulder) is healthy and hoping to push QB Andy Dalton in 2015. 'We wanted him in our building so bad and it happened and [ More ]

Ray McDonaldMay 25 04:42p

Updating previous reports, Chicago Bears DE Ray McDonald has been released Monday, May 25, just hours after being arrested for alleged domestic violence and child endangerment.

Adrian PetersonMay 25 02:42p

Minnesota Vikings RB Adrian Peterson still wants to be traded, according to a source. Peterson intends to skip all organized team activities, which would cause him to lose $250,000 in workout bonuses.

Adrian PetersonMay 24 09:22p

Minnesota Vikings RB Adrian Peterson has informed head coach Mike Zimmer that he will not attend the optional practices that begin Tuesday, May 26, according to a source with knowledge of the situation.

Tom BradyMay 22 04:32p

New England Patriots QB Tom Brady will have the appeal of his four-game suspension heard by commissioner Roger Goodell after the NFL rejected a motion by the NFL Players [ More ]

Tom BradyMay 22 03:32p

New England Patriots QB Tom Brady's appeal of his four-game suspension has not been scheduled at this time.

Ray RiceMay 22 11:42a

Free-agent RB Ray Rice (Ravens) could be a consideration for the Dallas Cowboys in free agency, speculates The Dallas Morning News' Jon Machota. He cites Cowboys owner and general [ More ]

Adrian PetersonMay 22 09:52a

Updating an ongoing story, Minnesota Vikings RB Adrian Peterson remains in pursuit of being traded or receiving a new contract and remains away from the organization during voluntary workouts. [ More ]

William BeattyMay 21 12:02p

Updating previous reports, New York Giants OT William Beatty (chest) underwent successful surgery Thursday, May 21, to repair a torn pectoral muscle. Beatty will need approximately five to six months of recovery time.

Derek CarrMay 20 10:23p

Oakland Raiders QB Derek Carr (finger) will not need surgery on his injured finger and may be able to throw again before the end of offseason workouts, according to his agent.

Joseph RandleMay 20 09:23p

Dallas Cowboys RB Joseph Randle is the most likely option to lead the team's running back by committee approach in 2015. Randle has the most experience in the system, [ More ]

William BeattyMay 20 03:53p

Updating previous reports, New York Giants OT William Beatty's (pectoral) torn pectoral will require surgery and Beatty's recovery time is expected to be around five months. Beatty suffered the [ More ]

William BeattyMay 20 03:33p

Updating a previous report, New York Giants OT William Beatty (shoulder) tore his pectoral while lifting weights Wednesday, May 20, according to a source, and will undergo surgery. One [ More ]

Josh HillMay 20 03:23p

New Orleans Saints TE Josh Hill is slated as the starting tight end this season with TE Jimmy Graham now in Seattle. TE Benjamin Watson could give Hill a run for his money, however.

William BeattyMay 20 03:13p

New York Giants OT William Beatty (shoulder) suffered a potentially serious shoulder injury while lifting weights Wednesday, May 20, according to a source. Surgery is a possibility.

Geno SmithMay 20 03:03p

New York Jets QB Geno Smith is the starting quarterback and will not see competition in training camp, according to offensive coordinator Chan Gailey.

Tom BradyMay 20 03:03p

Updating previous reports, New England Patriots QB Tom Brady's appeal will not be affected by the team's decision to accept their sanctions. Commissioner Roger Goodell said he wants to [ More ]

Matt JonesMay 20 02:15p

Washington Redskins RB Matt Jones said that he loves the offense and has a chip on his shoulder after not being used properly while in college. 'My college career [ More ]

Derek CarrMay 20 08:53a

Updating a previous report, Oakland Raiders QB Derek Carr (finger) is experiencing numbness in his right ring finger. He hopes to avoid surgery through rest and rehab, and no [ More ]

Derek CarrMay 19 06:13p

Oakland Raiders QB Derek Carr (finger) has a right ring finger injury that could be surgically repaired. A return for training camp is still achievable, however, according to a source.

L. WashingtonMay 19 05:23p

Pittsburgh Steelers WR L'Damian Washington (undisclosed) was waived/injured Tuesday, May 19.

Shayne GrahamMay 19 03:03p

New Orleans Saints PK Shayne Graham was released Tuesday, May 19. Subsequently, free-agent WR Lance Lewis (49ers) was signed.

Joseph BarksdaleMay 19 02:23p

Free-agent OT Joseph Barksdale (Rams) will sign a one-year deal worth $350,000 with the San Diego Chargers, according to a source. The deal also comes with more than $1 million in incentives available.

Tom BradyMay 19 01:43p

New England Patriots QB Tom Brady will continue to appeal his four-game suspension, despite owner Robert Kraft saying the team will not appeal the discipline levied against them.

Jed CollinsMay 18 03:32p

Dallas Cowboys FB Jed Collins was released Monday, May 18, and FB Tyler Clutts was re-signed to an undisclosed contract.

Tyler CluttsMay 18 03:32p

Dallas Cowboys FB Jed Collins was released Monday, May 18, and FB Tyler Clutts was re-signed to an undisclosed contract.

Lache SeastrunkMay 18 02:42p

Tennessee Titans RB Lache Seastrunk was released Monday, May 18.

RSS Feeds

NFL News:
 
Player Notes:
 
Forum Posts:
 

© 2015 RealTime Fantasy Sports, Inc.
Email Us  ·  Call Us 636.447.1170  ·  Lost Password
Advertising represented by USA Today Sports Media Group