2014 DRAFT GUIDE
Overvalued Players

2012-07-23 11:33:07
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
RealTime Fantasy Sports

Lynch has some concerns

It really isn't that hard to figure out, but if you haven't, winning your fantasy league is likely going to come down to you getting players that are undervalued come draft day. The teams that got tight end Rob Gronkowski in the seventh or eighth round last season won a lot of games. But on the flip side of that, teams that took running back Rashard Mendenhall in the late first or early second round last year lost a lot of games.

A key to winning your league is not only identifying undervalued players, but also avoiding the overvalued players. There are going to be a group of players that go higher than they should. We are here to fill you in on some of those players for this coming season. You don't have to avoid these guys altogether, but don't reach for them too soon, which is likely what you are going to have to do if you want them on your roster.

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams. There aren't a ton of backs getting about all the carries in their offense but Jackson is one of them, which is likely why he is getting a lot of love this year. But it seems a high price to take Jackson in the second or third round as he carries a lot of risk. His yardage numbers are good but Jackson isn't a high-scoring back, having 16 touchdowns the last three seasons. Plus, he has 2,138 carries in eight seasons, which is a ton of work. Jackson also turns 29 during the season, nearing that age of 30, which normally means the end of the line for fantasy backs. He has a lot of red flags for the coming season.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks. Lynch had a career season last year so you'll have to spend a lot more to get him this season. He is going in the second round of most drafts. We think that might be a little high for a guy that really has been a fantasy force just one time during his career. Plus, he is likely going to be suspended a few games for an off-the-field incident. He carries more risk than your normal second-round pick. Remember, he has topped the 1,000-yard mark three times but his yardage numbers aren't near those of the top backs in fantasy. We think a repeat of 2011 is unlikely for Lynch.

Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys. Bryant, like Britt, is a talented but troubled player off the field. He just doesn't seem to get "it." He could be a fantasy force but having to use a third or fourth round draft pick to get Bryant doesn't seem worth the risk for fantasy teams. He seems to be a bit of a ticking time bomb. You are better served going for high upside players without the off-the-field risks.

Doug Martin, RB, Bucs. Martin is an exciting prospect for the Bucs. They hope he is a top dual threat in their offense, which should be run heavy. But he hasn't been guaranteed the starting spot and even if he starts, LeGarrette Blount could be the goal-line back, which obviously hurts Martin's fantasy value. Even with these question marks, Martin is going 39 in drafts right now. There are a lot more proven players going after him (i.e. Michael Turner, Frank Gore). You have to take some risks but we aren't sure this high of a pick on Martin is worth taking unless you have some top options ahead of him on the depth chart.

Fred Jackson, RB, Bills. Jackson was having his best season as a pro before breaking his leg in Week 11. He was as productive as any back in the league. But Jackson is 31 years old and coming off a fairly major injury. He also has just one 1,000-yard season for his career and his best touchdown total is seven. We aren't sure using a third-round pick on him is good value for fantasy teams. He might have a few big games but carries a lot of risk, especially if you consider C.J. Spiller nipping on his heels for playing time.

Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears. Marshall heads to Chicago to take over as their No. 1 receiver, getting reunited with Jay Cutler. These are all positives for Marshall. The problem is Marshall is getting drafted like an elite fantasy receiver. He has really good value in PPR formats but even in those leagues, his value isn't as high as the elite guys. We have seen him go in the second round in a lot of drafts, which just seems too high for Marshall at the moment. Remember, he has double-digit scores just once and seven or fewer scores all but one season.

Kenny Britt, WR, Titans. Britt had another off-the-field incident, likely resulting in a suspension. He just can't seem to stay out of trouble, making him a huge risk for fantasy teams. Plus, he is coming off a major knee injury, which is another huge concern. His ADP is likely to fall but right now, Britt is going 58th overall, which is too rich for our blood. Britt certainly has a ton of upside when playing but he probably isn't worth the risk at this point of the draft.

Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots. Ridley is certainly worth a flier come draft day but taking him before the 10th round seems a bit of a reach for Ridley (89 ADP). He is far from a sure thing to start and even if he does start, when was the last time the Patriots produced a top fantasy back? If you can get him later, go for it. There is upside for Ridley but reaching for him before the 10th round seems too risky.

If you have any questions or comments, please email Jeff Paur at jeff@rtsports.com

Fantasy Football Player Notes RSS FeedPLAYER NOTES

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Cleveland Browns QB Brian Hoyer completed 23 of his 40 pass attempts for 322 yards, no touchdowns and three interceptions in the Week 12 win against the Atlanta Falcons.

Josh GordonNov 23 05:02p

Cleveland Browns WR Josh Gordon posted eight receptions for 120 yards in his regular season debut in Week 12 against the Atlanta Falcons. He was targeted a game-high 16 times in the win.

Isaiah CrowellNov 23 05:02p

Cleveland Browns RB Isaiah Crowell carried 12 times for game-high 88 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the Week 12 game against the Atlanta Falcons.

LeSean McCoyNov 23 05:02p

Philadelphia Eagles RB LeSean McCoy carried 21 times for 130 yards and a rushing touchdown in Week 12 against the Tennessee Titans, and he added one reception for just one yard.

Mark SanchezNov 23 05:02p

Philadelphia Eagles QB Mark Sanchez completed 30 of his 43 pass attempts for 307 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in the Week 12 win against the Tennessee Titans.

Darren SprolesNov 23 05:02p

Philadelphia Eagles RB Darren Sproles carried six times for 25 yards and a touchdown in Week 12 against the Tennessee Titans, and he added three receptions for 14 yards.

Dwayne AllenNov 23 12:42p

Indianapolis Colts TE Dwayne Allen (ankle) is inactive Sunday, Nov. 23, for Week 12.

Trent WilliamsNov 23 12:32p

Washington Redskins OT Trent Williams (ankle, knee) is not expected to play in Week 12 because of his injuries.

Danny LansanahNov 23 12:22p

Tampa Bay Buccaneers LB Danny Lansanah is moving from strongside linebacker to weakside linebacker in place of LB Lavonte David (hamstring). LB Orie Lemon will start at strongside linebacker.

Greg JenningsNov 23 11:52a

Minnesota Vikings WR Greg Jennings (rib) is active for the team's Week 12 game.

Blidi Wreh-WilsonNov 23 11:52a

The Tennessee Titans have declared CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson, QB Charlie Whitehurst, WR Kris Durham, CB Marqueston Huff, TE Richard Gordon, DL Ropati Pitoitua, OT Will Svitek inactive for Week 12.

Arian FosterNov 23 11:42a

The Houston Texans have declared RB Arian Foster, WR DeVier Posey, OT Jeff Adams, S Josh Aubrey, CB Kareem Jackson, LB Max Bullough, QB Tom Savage inactive for Week 12.

Andre BranchNov 23 11:42a

The Jacksonville Jaguars have declared DL Andre Branch, LB Jeremiah George, WR Mike Brown, OT Sam Young, RB Storm Johnson, CB Teddy Williams, OG Tyler Shatley inactive for Week 12.

Crezdon ButlerNov 23 11:42a

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have declared CB C.J. X. Wilson, CB Crezdon Butler, DL Da'Quan Bowers, OT Kevin Pamphile, LB Lavonte David, RB Mike James, WR Robert Herron inactive for Week 12.

Jordan CameronNov 23 11:42a

The Cleveland Browns have declared TE Jordan Cameron, LB Karlos Dansby, WR Marlon Moore, CB Pierre Desir, DB Robert Nelson, WR Rodney Smith, OT Vinston Painter inactive for Week 12.

Rex BurkheadNov 23 11:42a

The Cincinnati Bengals have declared CB Chris Lewis-Harris, WR Dane Sanzenbacher, WR Greg Little, DL Margus Hunt, RB Rex Burkhead, OT Tanner Hawkinson, LB Vontaze Burfict inactive for Week 12.

Dwayne AllenNov 23 11:42a

The Indianapolis Colts have declared TE Dwayne Allen, OT Gosder Cherilus, CB Greg Toler, DL Kelcy Quarles, C Khaled Holmes, OG Lance Louis, NT Zachariah Kerr inactive for Week 12.

Arian FosterNov 23 11:33a

Houston Texans RB Arian Foster (groin) is out Sunday, Nov. 23, for Week 12.

Brandon WattsNov 23 11:32a

The Minnesota Vikings have declared OT Austin Wentworth, LB Brandon Watts, OG David Yankey, RB Matt Asiata, LB Michael Mauti, DL Sharrif Floyd, FB Zach Line inactive for Week 12.

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The Philadelphia Eagles have declared OT Dennis Kelly, DB Jaylen Watkins, WR Jeff Maehl, OG Julian Vandervelde, QB Nick Foles, CB Rashad Carmichael, DE Taylor Hart inactive for Week 12.

Josh GordonNov 23 11:22a

Cleveland Browns WR Josh Gordon will not receive a fine or suspension for pleading guilty to driving under the influence charge in North Carolina, according to a source.

Reggie BushNov 23 11:12a

Detroit Lions RB Reggie Bush (ankle) was not spotted during early warmups Sunday, Nov. 23, and he's unlikely to play in Week 12.

Lavonte DavidNov 23 10:52a

Tampa Bay Buccaneers LB Lavonte David (hamstring) will miss the first game of his career Sunday, Nov. 23, as he's out for Week 12.

Larry FitzgeraldNov 23 10:32a

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Julius ThomasNov 23 10:02a

Denver Broncos TE Julius Thomas (ankle) is unlikely to play Sunday, Nov. 23, in Week 12.

Ben TateNov 23 09:52a

Minnesota Vikings RB Ben Tate will be active Sunday, Nov. 23, and have a role in Week 12. RB Matt Asiata will be inactive.

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