Fantasy Football Player Analysis: Quarterback

Wed Jul 11, 2012 1:01am
By Cory J. Bonini

KFFL's player analysis will be updated and expanded on regularly through the offseason. Be sure to sound off in the comments section below!

1) Aaron Rodgers | Green Bay Packers | 6-foot-2, 225 pounds | 8th year

2012 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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Fantasy analysis: We honestly cannot come up with any reasons to not like Rodgers as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback. He is the safest bet to post huge numbers and not kill you with turnovers along the way. Look no further than his 2011 stat line: 4,643 passing yards, 48 total touchdowns, six total turnovers. Green Bay has a pass-happy system with little to rely on at running back, which hasn't stopped A-Rod yet, and boasts an extremely deep, talented receiving corps. Rodgers is being drafted at No. 8 overall, on average, in standard leagues.

2) Drew Brees | New Orleans Saints | 6-foot, 209 pounds | 12th year

2012 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

Fantasy analysis: Brees is the best bet to put up record-breaking statistics, but the season-long suspension of head coach and play-caller Sean Payton begs for a drop-off in production this year. The only silver lining is that offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael knows Payton's style as well as anyone, and the same can be said for Brees himself. The Saints also lost wide receiver Robert Meachem, and teams will have an offseason to game plan against last year's surprise weapons (Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles). Brees is embroiled in a contract dispute, although it would be a shocker if he didn't play in 2012. New Orleans will look to make a statement, and Brees could be playing for a contract. Look for close to 5,000 yards and at least 30 touchdown passes, but No. 9 is no stranger to turning over the football. He comes off the board atop the second round as the No. 2 quarterback chosen, on average.

3) Cam Newton | Carolina Panthers | 6-foot-5, 248 pounds | 2nd year

2012 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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Fantasy analysis: Newton's rookie effort was a year for the ages, and the scary part is that he should improve as a passer in his second season. The former Auburn stud racked up an insane 14 rushing touchdowns to go along with 21 passing scores and produced 4,757 yards of total offense. Expect the rushing scores to come down, as Carolina has three competent backs around the stripe, and let's face it, 14 rushing scores is going to be hard to replicate. Our No. 3 ranking of Newton may even be too optimistic. We are relying on him becoming a more efficient passer, which will remove some of his rushing scores and increase his aerial TD count. This is important since it will dramatically alter his fantasy value from one scoring system to the next, such as in leagues that award fewer passing touchdown points. Newton is a somewhat risky, high-upside No. 1 fantasy quarterback. Don't overvalue him. Make sure to cover your bases with a viable backup. His average draft position is 17th overall.

4) Matthew Stafford | Detroit Lions | 6-foot-2, 232 pounds | 4th year

2012 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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Fantasy analysis: Stafford produced historic numbers in his first full season as a starter, throwing for 5,038 yards and 41 touchdowns on a whopping 663 attempts. Detroit, in an ideal world, wouldn't throw that much. The coaching staff wants to remain committed to the run, but how can you blame them for unleashing Stafford's arm when Calvin Johnson is on the other end of it more often than not? The Lions' weaponry doesn't stop there, either. Jahvid Best (concussion) is a lethal pass-catcher, Nate Burleson is a veteran presence with good hands, speedster Titus Young is ready to emerge, and Brandon Pettigrew is one of the league's premier young tight ends. Stafford has great command of Scott Linehan's system, one that has produced massive fantasy seasons in years gone by. Draft Stafford as a No. 1 fantasy quarterback, and we have no argument if you like him more than Cam Newton. The former Bulldog may even be slightly undervalued at his 33rd overall ADP.

5) Tom Brady | New England Patriots | 6-foot-4, 225 pounds | 13th year

2012 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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Fantasy analysis: The three-time Super Bowl winner just keeps getting better with age. At 34, Brady set career highs in attempts (2011), average yards per attempt (8.6) and passing yardage (5,235). New England's offense revolves around Brady, whose 2012 targets include Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Brandon Lloyd. Josh McDaniels, the architect of New England's record-breaking 2007 offense, returns to the fold as the OC. The Pats have a lot of weapons in the backfield, but none of them is proven in this system. It is hard not to like Brady, even if he will be 35 before the season begins. Expect another year of excellent production from this future Hall of Famer. He is typically the 18th player drafted.

6) Philip Rivers | San Diego Chargers | 6-foot-5, 228 pounds | 9th year

2012 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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Fantasy analysis: We expect a bounce-back season from the Chargers' leader. Rivers threw an uncharacteristically high 20 interceptions in 2011, but only three came in the final six games of the season after the offensive line found continuity. That same group returns for 2012. Rivers lost his top wide receiver in free agency, but Robert Meachem's deep-ball skill set is very similar to that of Vincent Jackson's. The Bolts also brought in Roscoe Parrish, Eddie Royal and Dante Rosario as targets for No. 17. Royal has drawn rave reviews in the offseason, as has a finally healthy tight end Antonio Gates at tight end. Ryan Mathews should give the Chargers a strong rushing attack to help keep defenses honest, and the third-year back is no slouch catching passes out of the backfield, either. Rivers' upside may not be what it once was, but that doesn't mean he isn't a quality No. 1 fantasy quarterback. Some risk exists, yet he has overcome greater adversity in prior successful fantasy seasons. Rivers should be considered a value pick anywhere around his fifth-round average selection.

7) Matt Ryan | Atlanta Falcons | 6-foot-4, 220 pounds | 5th year

2012 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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Fantasy analysis: The only NFL offensive coordinator (Mike Mularkey) Ryan has ever known has been replaced by Dirk Koetter, who has plans to open up the passing game. Second-year wideout Julio Jones is a dangerous playmaker, and we all know what Roddy White is capable of. The days of ground-and-pound with Michael Turner may be a thing of the past. Tight end Tony Gonzalez returns for what he says is his final season. Atlanta has to put points on the board if they want to go deeper in the playoffs, especially being in such a prolific offensive division. Ryan posted career highs in yardage (4,177) and total touchdowns (31) in 2011 in a restrained offense. He makes for a fantastic breakout candidate if you're looking to make a midrange gamble. His ADP is at the seventh- to eighth-round turn.

8) Josh Freeman | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6-foot-6, 236 pounds | 4th year

2012 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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Fantasy analysis: Freeman is coming off a disastrous 2011 season after a marvelous sophomore campaign, but we have high hopes for him in his fourth year. He has an improved offensive line - possibly the best in the league now. Vincent Jackson comes in to give the Bucs a strong vertical presence and to free up Mike Williams to see single coverage. The tight end position is bolstered, on paper anyway, with the exchange of Kellen Winslow for Dallas Clark. Tampa drafted Doug Martin to be their primary rusher; he is a capable pass-catching back. The Buccaneers play in a division that will require more offense, so don't let new head coach Greg Schiano's power-running background fool you. They will remain committed to the run, but their passing game is what will win ballgames. Freeman lost 20 pounds in the offseason in an effort to become more mobile. The pressure to live up to expectations isn't as apparent as it was last year, which is a major positive for a young quarterback. Freeman's 14th-round ADP makes him an absolute steal in fantasy leagues. Draft him as a high-end No. 2 and expect rock-solid No. 1 production.

9) Tony Romo | Dallas Cowboys | 6-foot-2, 223 pounds | 10th year

2012 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys

Fantasy analysis: We pegged Romo as a sleeper QB last year, and he did not disappoint. The veteran quarterback tossed 31 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions, completed 66.3 percent of his throws and broke 4,100 passing yards. Romo would have been much more hyped had it not been for three quarterbacks breaking 5,000 yards. This year, he is a little lower on our rankings. The Cowboys appear to have found a legitimate running game with DeMarco Murray, and they don't have a clear-cut No. 3 receiver. Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten should be enough to keep Romo in the top-10 fantasy quarterbacks, though. Draft him as a midrange No. 1 with little risk. He is being drafted, on average, in the early eighth round.

10) Michael Vick | Philadelphia Eagles | 6-foot, 215 pounds | 10th year

2012 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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Fantasy analysis: We are probably too low on Vick. His upside and the Eagles' offensive approach suggest he could be a top-three quarterback this year, but injury concerns have us projecting him for a shortened season. In all reality, Vick is one of two or three quarterbacks in the NFL that could put up bigger fantasy numbers than Aaron Rodgers. The dynamic quarterback has made strides in his development as a passer, yet his style of play leaves him open to too many hits. The Eagles' offensive line has undergone a few changes this offseason, notably on the left, which isn't Vick's blindside. Philly boasts one of the deepest, most talented receiving corps in the league, and running back LeSean McCoy can be added to that group. Vick is the ultimate boom-or-bust pick. If healthy, he is a top-flight fantasy option at the position. Being realistic, you count on him to miss a few games. Vick comes off the board in the late fourth or early fifth round, on average.

11) Ben Roethlisberger | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-foot-5, 241 pounds | 9th year

2012 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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Fantasy analysis: Big Ben will have a new offensive coordinator in Todd Haley, whose passing attack proved to be prolific in Arizona under Kurt Warner. Roethlisberger may have to carry the team if Isaac Redman struggles to replace Rashard Mendenhall (knee). The Steelers' O should open up more with Haley calling plays, but No. 1 wide receiver Mike Wallace is at an impasse with the team over his contract. A holdout could severely hamper his ability to master this offense in training camp. Roethlisberger is always an injury concern, but when he is healthy his fantasy production is on par with some of the best in the league. Pittsburgh used two high picks in the '12 NFL Draft to upgrade their offensive line - a soft spot for the team for much of Big Ben's career. Better protection, more passing and adequate weapons should translate into a strong season for Roethlisberger in 2012. He is usually drafted in the 10th round, which provides room for gained value elsewhere.

12) Eli Manning | New York Giants | 6-foot-4, 225 pounds | 9th year

2012 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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Fantasy analysis: Eli is coming off a career fantasy year and may have a tough time replicating it. He threw for 4,933 yards and 29 touchdowns. His 8.4 yards-per-attempt average marked a career high; it was fueled by Victor Cruz's breakout season. No. 1 receiver Hakeem Nicks is rehabbing a broken foot, and Cruz will have a tough time living up to last year's standards. New York may lean more on the run after drafting David Wilson in the first round. The tight end position was decimated by injuries late last year, and career underachiever Martellus Bennett at 290 pounds looks more like a blocker than pass-catcher. The Giants have a brutal schedule, too. Manning should be good and will have several big weeks, but the consistency needed in a top-notch fantasy passer probably won't be there. He is a low-end No. 1 that you should consider in the middle rounds; a sixth-round ADP makes him slightly overvalued.

13) Matt Schaub | Houston Texans | 6-foot-5, 241 pounds | 9th year

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Fantasy analysis: A significant foot injury cost Schaub six games in 2011. He was on fire to start the year and has made considerable progress in his rehab to this point. Expect him to be ready for Week 1. The Texans have a strong running game and so-so targets behind Andre Johnson (knee), who is already on the mend. Schaub probably won't be as useful as he was in 2009 and '10, but he headlines the group of high-end backup or borderline fantasy starters. His ADP is the 13th round, which illustrates how nervous fantasy owners are about his recovery. Consider him a steal at that point.

14) Peyton Manning | Denver Broncos | 6-foot-5, 230 pounds | 15th year

2012 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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Fantasy analysis: Manning (neck) looks the part health-wise this offseason. Consider him a wild card that could make or break your season. Denver has a quality offensive line, potentially lethal targets and a competent running game. Manning may be rusty early on. Even still, No. 18 gives you more upside than any 15-year veteran has ever offered. Draft him with caution, securing a backup earlier than normal, as a low-end No. 1 or ideal QB2. His ADP is the seventh round. Our ranking may be a little conservative, and we will closely monitor his offseason, adjusting his ranking accordingly.

15) Jay Cutler | Chicago Bears | 6-foot-3, 233 pounds | 7th year

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Fantasy analysis: Cutler is reunited with Brandon Marshall and quarterbacks coach Jeremy Bates. The Bears added Alshon Jeffery in the draft, and Devin Hester is looking like a wide receiver this offseason. The Bears know they need to open up the offense a little more, but in a conventional way, which will happen under OC Mike Tice. Cutler's 12th-round average draft figure is enticing; count on a revival season from this QB2 target.

16) Ryan Fitzpatrick | Buffalo Bills | 6-foot-2, 225 pounds | 8th year

2012 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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Fantasy analysis: Last year, Fitzpatrick started hot and cooled down the stretch, finishing with 24 passing scores and 23 INTs. He has spent the offseason working on his mechanics and footwork. Buffalo doesn't have a great supporting cast in the passing game, and Fitz's attempts could come down with improved defensive play. However, that should make him more efficient. Draft him as a low-end No. 2 with midrange backup potential.

17) Robert Griffin III | Washington Redskins | 6-foot-2, 220 pounds | Rookie

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Fantasy analysis: RG3 is being overdrafted (12th QB selected, on average). Some of that is due to the awesome season Cam Newton had as a rookie, but these two players are hardly comparable. Griffin is much smaller than Newton and may be more susceptible to injuries. Washington has enough talent at the skill positions to make Griffin a viable fantasy play some weeks, but he shouldn't be considered a borderline starter. Land him as a midrange backup to use as an occasional matchup play or as a bye week fill-in. He has a steep learning curve ahead of him and will need to catch a lot of breaks playing in such a tough division. His value is exponentially higher in full-retention keeper leagues.

18) Joe Flacco | Baltimore Ravens | 6-foot-6, 245 pounds | 5th year

2012 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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Fantasy analysis: The Ravens' offense runs through Ray Rice, which automatically limits Flacco's ceiling. He is a great real quarterback, but his virtual prospects are tempered. The Ravens need more weapons in the passing game, and having a strong defense means Flacco is likely to remain a glorified game manager. He probably won't ever hurt your fantasy squad, although the odds of him significantly helping it are slim. Target him (15th-round ADP) as a low-tier QB2 in standard formats.

19) Carson Palmer | Oakland Raiders | 6-foot-5, 236 pounds | 10th year

2012 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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Carson Palmer, QB, Oakland Raiders

Fantasy analysis: Palmer has as much upside as any 10-year vet could, yet we are leery about that potential materializing. A full offseason in Oakland favors him, but a switch to a West Coast system could be problematic. The Raiders' receiving corps has a lot of individual talent that remains raw. Palmer should cut down on last year's ridiculous turnover rate; he remains a liability in leagues that penalize heavily for turnovers, though. The former Bengal is drafted, on average, in the 11th round, which may be slightly optimistic.

20) Andy Dalton | Cincinnati Bengals | 6-foot-2, 220 pounds | 2nd year

2012 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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Fantasy analysis: Dalton's rookie season was promising, to say the least. He completed 58.1 percent of his throws for 3,398 yards in a fairly complex version of the West Coast offense. The TCU product tossed 20 touchdowns to 13 interceptions and added a lone ground score. He and fellow rookie A.J. Green formed a dynamic connection in the passing game. Add blossoming tight end Jermaine Gresham and rookie wideout Mohamed Sanu to his arsenal for 2012 as potential staples in the passing game. Gresham should flourish after an encouraging 2011 season. The offensive line is rock solid, and Dalton will be able to rely on what should be at least a competent running game on the legs of BenJarvus Green-Ellis. The heady Dalton may not be in for a massive uptick in statistical production in Year 2, but growth should be expected. Peg him as a low-end backup fantasy passer this year with more value in long-term leagues. 

21) Mark Sanchez | New York Jets | 6-foot-2, 225 pounds | 4th year

2012 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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Fantasy analysis: Sanchez made strides last year, even if it wasn't readily obvious. He set career bests in completion percentage (56.7), touchdown passes (26), rushing scores (six) and quarterback rating (78.2). However, he also took 39 sacks, threw 18 interceptions and lost eight fumbles. The offense will be run by the ground-minded Tony Sparano. Tim Tebow could sneak his way into games and muddy things for Sanchez. We would be much higher on the USC product if Tebow was not in the equation; draft Sanchez at your own risk as nothing more than a low-end QB2.

22) Alex Smith | San Francisco 49ers | 6-foot-4, 217 pounds | 8th year

2012 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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Fantasy analysis: Jim Harbaugh's influence and tutelage was evident last season, but that doesn't mean Smith will make strides in Year 2 under the demanding coach. Smith still struggles in clutch situations, especially in the red zone. His physical skill set will always keep his ceiling low, regardless of how many targets the Niners put around him. Reserve him for near last-resort backup status.

23) Matt Flynn | Seattle Seahawks | 6-foot-2, 225 pounds | 5th year

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Fantasy analysis: Flynn has the tools to be much higher on this list. Unfortunately, the uncertainty surrounding his grasp of the starting job - despite landing starting money in the offseason for the 'Hawks - ranks him as a low-end reserve. Head coach Pete Carroll has an affinity for Tarvaris Jackson, and rookie Russell Wilson has made waves in the offseason. Flynn is the definition of a true flier pick. He could wind up being quality trade bait later in the year based on his knowledge of the offense ... a lukewarm endorsement. Do not overhype him based on his massive Week 17 showing last year with the Green Bay Packers.

24) Sam Bradford | St. Louis Rams | 6-foot-4, 228 pounds | 3rd year

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Fantasy analysis: It may take some time for Bradford to right the ship that set sail his rookie year. Head coach Jeff Fisher and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will steer him in the right direction. Josh McDaniels may have been the worst thing that could have happened to Bradford's short-term maturation. A power-running approach and an improved defense points to Bradford being a game manager of sorts this season, but the sky is the limit beyond 2012 with more offensive weaponry. He is a low-end backup for desperate owners.

Fantasy Football Player Notes RSS FeedPLAYER NOTES

Mark IngramMay 17 10:41a

New Orleans Saints RB Mark Ingram said he does not want his personal goals to outweigh the team's goals this season. 'I just want to go out there and [ More ]

Jonathan BaldwinMay 17 10:37a

Kansas City Chiefs WR Jonathan Baldwin appears to be the favorite for the No. 2 wide receiver job at this point but has not emerged as the dominant offseason [ More ]

C. PattersonMay 17 09:58a

Minnesota Vikings WR Cordarrelle Patterson will be given an opportunity to earn a starting wide receiver spot across from WR Greg Jennings this year, according to head coach Leslie [ More ]

Titus YoungMay 17 09:52a

Free-agent WR Titus Young (Rams) may not come within 100 feet of the mother of his 9-month-old child when he is released from jail. She was granted a temporary [ More ]

Peyton ManningMay 17 08:42a

Denver Broncos QB Peyton Manning signed a 'renegotiated' contract, but sources with knowledge of the deal said the new terms don't change his compensation. The contract, according to the [ More ]

Jason SmithMay 16 09:12p

New Orleans Saints OT Charles Brown is expected to receive the first opportunity to win the starting left tackle job but is expected to compete with OTs Jason Smith [ More ]

Kyle WilberMay 16 08:12p

Dallas Cowboys DE Kyle Wilber said he currently weighs 255 pounds and likely will not look to add any more weight. Wilber said the team wants him to keep [ More ]

M. BernadeauMay 16 08:02p

Dallas Cowboys OG Mackenzy Bernadeau (shoulder) said he is not sure if he will be a full participant during organized team activities but does think he will be able [ More ]

Donnie AveryMay 16 07:52p

Kansas City Chiefs WR Donnie Avery (ankle) injured his ankle during organized team activities Tuesday, May 14, and has been limited the last few days.

Rob GronkowskiMay 16 07:22p

New England Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski (forearm) is scheduled to undergo surgery Monday, May 20. He underwent X-rays on his forearm Wednesday, May 15, and had his forearm examined. [ More ]

Philip RiversMay 16 07:12p

San Diego Chargers head coach Mike McCoy said the team will ask QB Philip Rivers to play a huge role in reducing the learning curve for the rest of [ More ]

Brian HoyerMay 16 07:02p

The Cleveland Browns signed free-agent QB Brian Hoyer (Cardinals) to an undisclosed two-year deal Thursday, May 16.

Thomas KeiserMay 16 06:42p

The San Diego Chargers signed free-agent LB Thomas Keiser (Panthers) to an undisclosed deal Thursday, May 16.

Andre BrownMay 16 06:12p

New York Giants RB Andre Brown could be poised to start in 2013. 'This is my year,' Brown said. 'I have to go out there and I have to [ More ]

Steve SmithMay 16 06:02p

Carolina Panthers WR Steve Smith verbally blasted New York Jets QB Thursday, May 16. 'He sucks,' Smith reportedly said. 'I wouldn't let Mark Sanchez throw me a paper bag sandwich.'

Brandon JacksonMay 16 05:12p

The Cleveland Browns re-signed RB Brandon Jackson Thursday, May 16, to a one-year deal. Terms of the contract were not disclosed.

Chad JohnsonMay 16 05:12p

A warrant has been issued for the arrest of free-agent WR Chad Johnson (Dolphins) because he violated several terms of his probation, according to the Broward Sherriff's Office. He [ More ]

Kyle LoveMay 16 04:32p

The Jacksonville Jaguars claimed Kyle Love (Patriots) off waivers Thursday, May 16.

Randy MossMay 16 04:22p

Free-agent WR Randy Moss (49ers) is still undecided if he will play football this season. There was reportedly interest in Moss a few months ago, although nothing has transpired [ More ]

Charles WoodsonMay 16 04:12p

The New York Giants are not close to signing free-agent CB Charles Woodson (Packers) and no visit has been scheduled. The Giants would need Woodson to be OK with [ More ]

David GarrardMay 16 04:12p

Retired QB David Garrard said the New York Jets offered him the chance to attend their training camp as a coaching intern. Garrard said he will have to talk [ More ]

Mark SanchezMay 16 04:02p

New York Jets QB Mark Sanchez said he expects to win the starting quarterback job this offseason. Sanchez said he knows he needs to cut down on his interceptions [ More ]

Dwight FreeneyMay 16 03:52p

Free-agent LB Dwight Freeney (Colts) would love a chance to play for the New York Giants, according to his father. The Giants would likely look to sign him to [ More ]

Joe WebbMay 16 03:52p

Minnesota Vikings WR Joe Webb said he is fine with moving from quarterback to wide receiver but expects it to take some times to get comfortable at the position. [ More ]

Doug FreeMay 16 03:42p

Dallas Cowboys OT Doug Free took a $3.5 million pay cut Thursday, May 16, and will stay with the team in 2013.

Roy HeluMay 16 03:22p

The Washington Redskins are hoping RB Roy Helu (toe) will be a full participant once organized team activities start next week. Head coach Mike Shanahan said Helu recently had [ More ]

David WilsonMay 16 03:12p

The New York Giants likely will continue to use RB David Wilson as their kick returner after unable to sign Oakland Raiders WR Joshua Cribbs. It was believed Wilson [ More ]

Anthony HargroveMay 16 03:02p

The Dallas Cowboys signed DE Anthony Hargrove (Packers) Thursday, May 16. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Max StarksMay 16 02:52p

Free-agent OT Max Starks (Steelers) is considering many teams, according to his agent. The Arizona Cardinals are in that mix.

David GarrardMay 16 02:42p

Retired QB David Garrard said the New York Jets coaches told him they would have an open competition for the starting quarterback job during the offseason and that no [ More ]

Aaron CurryMay 16 02:42p

New York Giants LB Aaron Curry thinks he can be an impact linebacker on the team's defense. "I really believe I have the ability to be an impact linebacker [ More ]

Brandon WeedenMay 16 02:32p

Cleveland Browns head coach Rob Chudzinski said the team likely will continue to use QB Brandon Weeden with the first-team offense and QB Jason Campbell with the second-team offense [ More ]

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