2009-11-05 13:51:59
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
RealTime Fantasy Sports
Crabtree gaining fantasy valueEvery season there are a few waiver-wire gems that turn out to be difference-makers for fantasy teams. Last season guys like Eddie Royal and Pierre Thomas were the big pickups for fantasy teams. Royal was good from about day one, serving as a top No. 2 receiver for fantasy teams. Thomas wasn't a big factor until later in the season, but was a top-five fantasy back the second half of the year. If you can find a guy like that during the season that you didn't draft, it can give you a big advantage over the other teams. Why do I bring this up now? Well, Ryan Moats is a guy many think could fit this bill. We will touch on him later in the column but here is a tease - we aren't so sold on him. A few guys that have been great pickups for fantasy teams this season, though, are Giants receivers Steve Smith and Mario Manningham, running back Rashard Mendenhall and receiver Miles Austin. For now, Smith is leading the way for his consistency this season. But Austin seems the guy most capable of carrying a fantasy team any given week. He could have a finish like Thomas last season. Either way, if you got one of these guys, it gave your roster a nice boost. Nothing is ever certain with waive-wire grabs, though. Not everyone pans out (i.e. James Davis, Byron Leftwich). Just keep that in mind. There is a reason these guys are on waivers to begin with.
News and Notes: Texans coach Gary Kubiak isn't ready to name a starter at running back just yet. He said all three backs will be in the mix for carries moving forward. The Texans likely will go with the hot hand approach, giving the back playing the best the most playing time. This is a scary situation for fantasy teams. . . . .The Browns fired general manager George Kokonis this week. Director of football operations Erin O'Brien also was let go of her duties. Coach Eric Mangini hasn't been fired - yet. This situation is a mess, though, as the Browns are a team in disarray. We aren't sure Mangini will make it past a season in Cleveland. . . . . .The Bucs made a change at kicker. Tampa released Shane Andrus and signed Connor Barth to take over the kicking duties. Barth did a pretty good job as a rookie with the Chiefs last season. Andrus had just one field-goal attempt with the Bucs and missed. . . . . .Receiver Chris Chambers had an eventful week. The Chargers benched him before last week's game and released him the following day. The Chiefs claimed him on waivers, though. Chambers could be in the mix for playing time with the Chiefs, a team looking for playmakers at receiver. . . . . .It could be the end of the line for running back Edgerrin James. The Seahawks released James on Tuesday. He had a great career, but has clearly lost a step. It seems a long shot James will catch on with another team this season. STRONG PLAYS Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers. Crabtree cracks our "strong play" list for the first time in his career. He has looked sharp his first two games, though. Crabtree had career highs last week, catching six passes for 81 yards. He is the top target in the 49ers passing attack and new starter Alex Smith is looking his way often. Crabtree has a chance to set more career highs this week, facing the Titans. Tennessee did look better against the pass last week, but still rank dead last overall, allowing 282 yards per game. Crabtree is worth using as a No. 2 receiver in this matchup. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers. Williams is red hot right now. He has 139 or more total yards in three straight games. He is getting it done no matter the opponent - ran for 158 yards against the top rated rush defense last week. And Williams gets the Saints in Week 9, a team that was gashed by Michael Turner last week. We think this bodes well for Williams, who has been playing much better than Turner this season. The Panthers rush attack should give the Saints fits this week. New Orleans has allowed nine rushing touchdowns this season. Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens. Flacco continues to play well, but hasn't enjoyed huge numbers the last few games. But we think that ends this week against the Bengals. He did have a few struggles against the Bengals his last time out, but did complete 70 percent of his passes in the game and scored a touchdown - not bad. The Bengals defense hasn't looked great since that game, though, allowing 629-passing yards the last two games. Flacco should build on his numbers from his first meeting. Greg Jennings, WR, Packers. Jennings has been a little erratic this season, but we like the way he is going lately. Jennings had 88 yards and a touchdown last week. And he has at least eight targets in three straight games, which is a good sign for Jennings to produce. If he gets that many targets this week, he should break a big play or two against a Bucs secondary susceptible to the big play. The Bucs have allowed 16-passing touchdowns this season, which ranks near the bottom of the league. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers. We really don't like the way Tomlinson is running, averaging less than four yards per carry three straight games and just 3.4 yards per carry for the entire season. He just doesn't have the same burst of the last few seasons. But even with that said, the Chargers continue to feed him the ball often. He has 18 or more carries three straight games. And he gets all the goal-line work. We don't see Tomlinson gaining many yards against the Giants this week, but Tomlinson has a good shot to score, facing a team that has allowed 12-rushing touchdowns (second worst total in the league). POOR PLAYS Kevin Walter, WR, Texans. Walter should actually be the main benefactor from Owen Daniels getting hurt. He fills his role the best, serving as a big possession receiver with good red-zone skills. But he isn't likely to breakout of his current funk this week. Walter plays the Colts, a team that has allowed a league-low three passing touchdowns. And Walter doesn't have a touchdown or more than 50-receiving yards since Week 3. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers. Mendenhall remains the Steelers starter and should continue to get the majority of the carries going forward. Mendenhall has been solid but not spectacular of late, rushing for fewer than 70 yards in back-to-back games. And the Steelers are a pass-first team, which will limit Mendenhall every once in a while. He probably won't have one of his better games of the season against the Broncos in Week 9. Denver has allowed fewer than 100-rushing yards in all but a game this season. The Broncos also have allowed just three rushing touchdowns all season. Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons. Ryan is in a bit of a funk of late, mainly because his offensive line hasn't played as well. Ryan has eight turnovers the last three games. The good news is he has five touchdowns during that stretch. But all the turnovers are putting a damper on his fantasy stats. He also has fewer than 200-passing yards in two of the last three. We don't see him improving on his play of late against a good Redskins secondary. Washington is second against the pass and has allowed just six-passing touchdowns all season. Ryan is an iffy No. 1 this week. If you have better options, go with them. Laurence Maroney, RB, Patriots. We still don't trust Maroney even though he has games with back-to-back scores. He has been too erratic for his career to be worth using every week. Maroney is a matchup player for fantasy teams. And a matchup against the Dolphins doesn't bode well for Maroney. Miami has more success stopping the run (sixth overall) than the pass (21st overall). Look for the Patriots to exploit this weakness, using a heavy dose of Tom Brady this week. Maroney's chances should be limited. David Garrard, QB, Jaguars. If Garrard couldn't do anything against the Titans last week (worst pass defense in the game), Garrard is never going to be worth using for fantasy teams. We just don't trust him at this point. The Jaguars even stripped him of most of his audible duties. The Jaguars weren't happy with Garrard audibling out of many running plays. It seems Garrard's days as the Jaguars starter could be numbered. Garrard has three straight games without a touchdown and four interceptions during that stretch. He has another good matchup this week against the Chiefs, but Garrard is a guy to stay away from for now. SLEEPERS Santana Moss, WR, Redskins. Moss isn't a must start anymore. His up and down play can be troublesome for fantasy teams. We think this will be one of his big games in Week 9, though. Moss gets the Falcons, who are really struggling against the pass. The Falcons are banged up in the secondary, so Moss' speed could be a problem for them. Moss has three games with 74 or more yards so he is capable of producing well for fantasy teams. Atlanta is 31st against the pass, allowing 256 yards per game. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs. Charles gets the start this week with Larry Johnson suspended. And Charles is setup for success in his first start of the season. He gets the Jaguars, a team that allowed Chris Johnson to rush for 228 yards last week. Charles won't match that but has some total yardage potential against a bad defense. We especially like Charles in PPR leagues because he catches the ball well. He is worth a flyer this week if you need running back help. Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seahawks. Hasselbeck really is having a fine bounce-back season. He does have a couple poor outings, but three very good games. For the season, Hasselbeck has nine touchdowns to three interceptions in five games. He is doing a good job of spreading the ball around to his host of solid options at receiver. Hasselbeck should have another one of his big outings Week 9 against the Lions. The Lions have allowed 18-passing touchdowns, good for second most in all of football. Hasselbeck is a good spot starter this week. Fred Davis, TE, Redskins. Two Redskins make our sleeper list this week, which is rare. But we like Davis in a starting role against the Falcons, a team allowing the fourth most fantasy points to tight ends. Davis is a solid pass catcher, so he has potential in this matchup. Davis had eight receptions for 78 yards and a touchdown in his first extended action of the season his last game out. He was targeted 10 times in the game. Davis is a decent bye-week fill-in for fantasy teams. Mike Bell, RB, Saints. Bell is going to be up and down in his role with the Saints, but he'll be capable of some big games in a great offense. And Week 9 has the makings of a solid showing for Bell. He gets a Panthers team 24th against the run and allowing the eighth most fantasy points to running backs. The Saints should be able to build a lead in this game and use Bell late to run the clock out. This is where Bell has his most upside. He is worth a flex play this week for fantasy teams. WAIVER WIRE POSSIBILITIES Ryan Moats, RB, Texans. Moats will be the No. 1 priority on most waiver wires this week. He had a breakout game, taking Steve Slaton's spot in the lineup early in the game after Slaton lost another fumble last week. Moats hasn't been named the starter just yet (as mentioned, Texans will use all three backs), but should play a role going forward after his three-touchdown game. Moats is a shifty back with good speed and a little power. We wouldn't get too high on him after a game, though, especially since he played the Bills, who were dead last against the run. Moats is likely going to be up and down the rest of the way. Don't count on him grabbing the starting role and getting most of the work in the Texans offense. Alex Smith, QB, 49ers. Smith didn't post huge numbers last week, but looked pretty good against a good Colts pass defense. We were impressed with Smith's poise on the road. He could be factor in favorable matchups. Smith is building a great rapport with Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis, which bodes well for his success. Smith is owned in just 42 percent of leagues. Dustin Keller, TE, Jets. Keller is finally getting into the swing of things offensively. He had a season-high eight receptions last week and finished with 76-yards and a touchdown. Keller was targeted 13 times in the game. Keller has double-digit targets in two of the last three games, getting much more involved in the Jets passing attack. As long as rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez continues to make strides, Keller will be worth using on occasion for fantasy teams. Keller was dropped in many leagues early in the season after his slow start (owned in 53 percent of leagues). Vince Young, QB, Titans. Young showed some potential in his first start of the season, missing on just three passes while throwing for 125 yards and a touchdown without an interception. He also ran for 30 yards. Young will be far from a sure thing every week, but might be worth grabbing in deeper leagues. He could be worth a start or two before it is all said and done. Young has produced decent fantasy stats in past seasons, mostly because of his ability to run the ball. Malcolm Floyd, WR, Chargers. Floyd becomes a starter in San Diego with Chris Chambers gone. And Floyd has shown some potential this year. He is a big receiver and could be a top red-zone target in the Chargers offense. He is a big-play threat for the Chargers. In his first start, Floyd had two catches for 64 yards, displaying his big-play ability. The Chargers are a pass-first team now, so Floyd has upside for the rest of the season. He'll be worth using as a No. 3 receiver on occasion for fantasy teams. High/Low Scoring Games Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests. High Scoring Games: Cardinals/Bears, Texans/Colts, Chiefs/Jaguars, Panthers/Saints, Cowboys/Eagles, Chargers/Giants. Low Scoring Games: Titans/49ers, Steelers/Broncos. Bye: Bills, Browns, Raiders, Rams, Vikings, Jets. Please join me for my weekly fantasy chat, which was moved to Friday this week at 11 AM eastern time. A link to enter the chat will be provided on your league home page as well as your personal account page. If you have any questions or comments, please email Jeff Paur at jeff@rtsports.com |