Snelling is our favorite pickup

I heard an expression over the weekend that I thought fit well when it comes to fantasy football - don't get too cute. This is very fitting, especially at this time of year. Fantasy owners sometimes try to outthink things. I'm not saying ignore matchups, but you can't sit your studs at this point or try to start some obscure player because he has a good matchup. You have to go with what got you here, especially with playoff berths on the line.

Don't get too cute.

And the reason I bring this up is because I had a few questions last week, regarding sitting a couple of marquee players. One owner wasn't keen on Maurice Jones-Drew because he was facing the Jets, a top rush defense. But as I told this owner, you can't sit Jones-Drew no matter the matchup. He has produced all year and is arguably the top fantasy back in the game. I don't want that potential on my bench. (Plus, the Jets aren't the same rush defense without Kris Jenkins in the lineup.) Not trying to pick on this owner, though, because doing research and trying to put your best lineup out there is the right thing to do every week.

Don't get too cute.

Alright, enough of that rant. Good luck Week 11. This is a pivotal week for many fantasy teams as they make a push for the playoffs. Here is to hoping you put your best lineup out there.

News and Notes: The Bengals signed running back Larry Johnson on Tuesday. He likely isn't going to get much work with his new team, but provides some veteran insurance if injuries hit at the running back spot. . . . . .Kansas City will be without receiver Dwayne Bowe for the next four games. He was suspended four games for violating the NFL policy on performance-enhancing substances. Apparently, Bowe used some sort of diuretic to lose weight before the season started. Recently signed Chris Chambers suddenly becomes the No. 1 receiver for the Chiefs. . . . .The Bills fired head coach Dick Jauron on Tuesday. He will be replaced by defensive coordinator Perry Fewell for the rest of the season. The team was a mess with Jauron as head coach, so Fewell taking over really can't make things worse. If anything, the offense could get a lift with a new approach. . . . . .Baltimore finally made a move at kicker, letting go Steven Hauschka, who has missed three field-goal attempts the last four games. The current thinking is the Ravens will sign either Billy Cundiff or Mike Nugent to take over the kicking duties. Wonder if they are regretting letting Matt Stover go?

STRONG PLAYS

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers. Look for Big Ben to rebound in a big way this week after a poor showing against the Bengals. Roethlisberger was very consistent before his last game, getting at least a score in every game and seven games with 220-plus passing yards. He can get back to those big numbers against the Chiefs in Week 11. Kansas City saw their pass defense stats improve in a big way this week but that was because they faced an awful Raiders passing game. Their defense will struggle to stop Roethlisberger this week.

Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints. Thomas is a little hit or miss for fantasy teams, but still getting pretty consistent work in the Saints backfield. He has double-digit carries in three straight and three touchdowns during that stretch. He is worth using as a No. 2 back in the right matchup. And this week against the Bucs is a time to use Thomas. Tampa has struggled stopping the run all season, ranking 31st, allowing 167 yards per game. The Saints powerful rushing attack should have a lot of success in this one.

Brett Favre, QB, Vikings. Favre might be having his best season as a pro, which is pretty amazing if you think about it. He has 17 touchdowns to three interceptions and is completing an amazing 68 percent of his passes. He also has three 300-yard games and 230-plus passing yards in seven straight games. He should keep his hot ways going this week against the Seahawks, a team 22nd against the pass. Seattle has allowed 249 or more passing yards three of the last four games.

Kevin Smith, RB, Lions. Smith hasn't been outstanding this season, but fairly consistent. He has at least 60 total yards in all but a game. The thing holding him back is a lack of touchdowns (just three). If he had a few more scores, his overall fantasy numbers would be much better. But he is still worth using as a No. 2 back, especially against the Browns this week. Cleveland actually doesn't have a bad defense, but their horrible offense has an adverse impact on their defense. The offense can't stay on the field, so the Browns defense can only hold up so long. Look for Smith to get some big numbers late in the game against the Browns 30th rated rush defense.

Lee Evans, WR, Bills. Don't look now, but Evans suddenly has touchdowns in three of the last four games. He is the top red-zone target for the Bills at receiver. The Bills still don't have a very good passing game, but Evans is making plays with his limited chances. And a favorable matchup against the Jags this week bodes well for Evans to find the end zone once again. Jacksonville is playing much better of late, but still aren't great against the pass, allowing 16-passing touchdowns this season.

POOR PLAYS

Joseph Addai, RB, Colts. Despite relatively poor yardage numbers, Addai continues to produce for fantasy teams because he keeps finding the end zone. He has touchdowns in seven of his last eight games. But he also doesn't have more than 65-rushing yards in any game this season and averages less than four yards per carry (3.5), which isn't very impressive. His weekly touchdown potential is about the only reason his value remains pretty high for fantasy teams. But we aren't sure we like his chances to score this week against the Ravens, a team that has allowed just five rushing touchdowns all season and rank fifth against the run. If you have better options, go with them. Addai's yardage should once again be limited in this one and his touchdown potential isn't quite as high as recent weeks.

David Garrard, QB, Jaguars. The Jags are playing some much better football in recent weeks. And Garrard is a reason for the resurgence. He has three touchdowns without an interception the last two games as well as at least 220-passing yards. But you can't forget he has been erratic this season, failing to score a touchdown in four games and throwing for less than 200 yards in three games. He is really a matchup play and a matchup against the Bills isn't a good one. The Bills can stop the pass (ninth overall) but struggle against the run (dead last). Look for a heavy dose of Maurice Jones-Drew in this game. Garrard's chances could be limited. Plus, the Bills have allowed just seven passing touchdowns all season.

Ryan Grant, RB, Packers. Grant continues his trend of doing well against the bad teams but little against the good ones. He has 90-plus rushing yards against the Bucs, Browns, Lions and Rams. But is under 90 in his other games against the Cowboys, Vikings, Bengals and Bears. He'll get some yards against the better teams, but expect just average totals (around 70 or so). Expect another average to below average showing against a the 49ers, a team that has allowed more than 100-rushing yards just twice all season.

Roy Williams, WR, Cowboys. Williams is finally showing a little sign of life in the Cowboys offense. He has touchdowns in two of the last three and is over 70 yards in two straight games for the first time this season. But even with that said, he is making some costly mistakes, losing a fumble last week and failing to convert a two-point conversion. He still isn't making enough plays for the Cowboys. And a matchup this week against the top-rated pass defense (Redskins) in the league doesn't bode well for the inconsistent Williams to have another game of 70-plus yards. We would avoid him.

Jay Cutler, QB, Bears. We are expecting another turnover filled week for Cutler. He is coming off a five interception game and gets a much tougher test against the Eagles. Philadelphia has the third most interceptions in all of football (15) and rank 10th against the pass. The Eagles haven't allowed more than 300-passing yards in any game this season. Cutler could get a score or two and around 250 yards, but don't be surprised to see him have another multiple turnover game.

SLEEPERS

Vince Young, QB, Titans. Young is leading the charge for a suddenly hot Titans team. He isn't posting eye-popping numbers, but decent enough and managing the game well. He has touchdowns in each of his last three games and averages 24-rushing yards per game during that stretch. Young also is completing an impressive 66 percent of his passes. He is doing well with his chances. We think he is worth a start this week if you are looking for quarterback help. He gets a Texans team that is just average defensively. You can expect teams to really start trying to take away running back Chris Johnson, which should start giving Young a few more chances in the passing game.

Ricky Williams, RB, Dolphins. Williams likely gets the start this week with Ronnie Brown hurting, which is good for Williams. He gets the Panthers, who are just 25th against the rush. Williams should get the bulk of the work in the Dolphins run-heavy offense. You have to like his chances, especially after his first 100-yard game of the season last week. Williams is kind of flying under the radar, but is posting very good numbers this season. He has seven touchdowns and averages more than five yards per carry (5.3).

Donne Avery, WR, Rams. Avery is a risk because the Rams passing game is so erratic. But you can't ignore his production of late. He has touchdowns in three of the last five games and enjoyed his first two-touchdown game of the season last week. The Rams have a favorable matchup for the pass this week, getting the Cardinals. Arizona is solid against the run, but rank just 30th against the pass, allowing 253 yards per game.

Kevin Walter, WR, Texans. It seems a matter of time before Walter gets going. Why not this week against the Titans? Walter should get more chances in the passing game with Owen Daniels out for the year. And the Titans are dreadful against the pass, allowing a league-high 23 touchdowns. Walter has been a top red-zone target for the Texans in past years, but hasn't been in the mix much this season. But he is coming off his second best game of the season his last time out, catching five passes for 67 yards. He can improve on those numbers this week.

Tashard Choice, RB, Cowboys. Choice might be worth a flyer this week. His production is a little erratic with two backs to compete with for playing time, but we could see him getting a few more chances this week with Marion Barber battling a sore wrist. And the Cowboys have a matchup to use their running game more. The Redskins are first overall against the pass but just 24th against the run. And if Albert Haynesworth misses the game, which is possible, the Cowboys have to like their chances to run the ball with success even more. Choice might be worth using as a flex option in Week 11.

WAIVER WIRE POSSIBILITIES

Justin Forsett, RB, Seahawks. Forsett should get at least a start with Julius Jones likely out because of a lung injury. Forsett looked great in his first extended action last week, rushing 17 times for 123 yards. He also caught five passes, giving him five receptions in two straight games. Forsett is worth adding if you are looking for a help at the flex spot or even as a No. 2 back. He has some big-play potential and does well as a receiver out of the backfield.

Jason Snelling, RB, Falcons. Snelling likely gets a start or two with Michael Turner nursing a sprained ankle. He is our favorite waiver-wire grab this week. Snelling has good potential in a good Falcons offense. He had 61-rushing yards and a touchdown replacing Turner last week. Snelling is worth grabbing in all formats. He also is a fine receiver, catching 17 passes this season. He has good total yardage potential the next few weeks, making him a solid No. 2 back.

Bernard Scott, RB, Bengals. Scott isn't guaranteed a start this week, but could start if Cedric Benson can't go on his hip injury. Scott didn't do much with his 13 carries last week (33 yards), but he gets the Raiders and Browns the next two games so you have to like his chances to improve if he gets double-digit touches again. Scott is a big-play threat as evident by his great work on kick returns this season. He can make things happen in the open field.

Brandon Gibson, WR, Rams. Gibson was drafted by the Eagles this season but traded to the Rams because of all the depth at receiver for the Eagles. The Rams might have gotten a steal with Gibson. He got his first extended action last week and caught seven passes for 93 yards. And with Keenan Burton out for the rest of the year, Gibson becomes the starter at receiver for the Rams. St. Louis doesn't have much of a passing game, but Gibson is going to be involved the rest of the season. He might be worth a reserve spot if you are looking for receiver help.

Ladell Betts, RB, Redskins. Betts is really running well lately. He has touchdowns in back-to-back games and 184-rushing yards during that stretch. And with Clinton Portis' status still up in the air, expect Betts to be in the mix once again this week. He is owned in just 56 percent of leagues.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: 49ers/Packers, Falcons/Giants, Saints/Bucs, Seahawks/Vikings, Chargers/Broncos, Eagles/Bears, Titans/Texans.

Low Scoring Games: Dolphins/Panthers, Browns/Lions, Bengals/Raiders

If you have any questions or comments, please email Jeff Paur at jeff@rtsports.com