08-Feb-2012 19:07pm
 
RealTime Fantasy Sports
Lineup Tips: Week 1

2010-09-08 10:36:36
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
RealTime Fantasy Sports

Rivers setup for big Week 1

Alright, it is here. Yes, the start of the season is finally here. And I say it every year, but this might be the best time of the year for fantasy owners. Right now, every owner has hopes of a championship. Your draft is owner and hopes are high as the season is about to get under way. We all start with the same record and have the same hopes and dreams - winnings it all! So good luck this year and enjoy the ride. I'm looking forward to a great season.

And similar to last year, we will run several articles throughout the week, getting you ready for the season. We will publish "Studs and Duds" on Monday, an article going over each game from the past week. On Wednesday, this column, "Lineup Tips," will be released, which is sort of a preview of the coming week. Our "Injury Status" article is released on Thursday, going over all the big injuries for the coming week. And over the weekend, we will publish "Weekend Update," a brief look at any key fantasy news before the games get kicked off Sunday. We also publish a mailbag each week, a video update and all the inactives before the games start (Inactives Blog). So we have you covered each week as you get prepared for the coming week.

News and Notes: Receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh wasn't a free agent for long, signing with the Ravens early in the week. He'll serve as their No. 3 receiver behind Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason, giving the Ravens three very good, veteran receivers. Houshmandzadeh has PPR potential in the Ravens offense, but don't expect a ton of yards or touchdowns. . . . . .Rumors continue to swirl about a possible Albert Haynesworth trade back to the Titans. Things continue to be very messy in Washington, so a trade likely benefits both sides. But you would think the Redskins would do all they can to make on of the dominate defensive players in the league a little happier. . . . . . . .The Rams bolstered a thin receiving unit by trading for Mark Clayton. He was expendable for the Ravens after they signed Houshmandzadeh. Clayton has starting experience and might immediately become the most talented receiver on the Rams roster. He is worth monitoring. . . . . . .The Broncos still haven't decided on their No. 2 quarterback. It isn't known if rookie Tim Tebow or Brady Quinn will serve that role during Week 1. Tebow outplayed Quinn during the preseason, so you would think he would get the nod, especially with all the hype surrounding him. But nothing is certain at this point. . . . . . .Tom Brady and the Patriots are apparently close to a contract extension. It would be good for both sides to get this done before the season, getting what could be a distraction out of the way.

HOT PLAYS

Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings. With Sidney Rice out of the lineup, Harvin is the main man in Minnesota's passing attack. And we all know how Brett Favre treated Rice last season, making him a top-flight receiver. He should look Harvin's way often, giving him a ton of targets in the passing game. And the game against the Saints figures to be pretty high scoring, making all those involved offensively solid plays. Harvin should do particularly well against a Saints defense that allowed the 10th most fantasy points to receivers last season.

Jahvid Best, RB, Lions. Best looked like the real deal during the preseason. He ran for 129 yards and averaged an impressive 8.6 yards per carry. He also had three catches, showing his ability in the passing game. He will be the No. 1 back in the Lions offense and get around 20 touches per game. He should have a solid start to his season, facing the Bears, who were 23rd against run in preseason. It was the preseason, but stopping the run continues to be a concern for the Bears. They allowed the 13th most fantasy points to running backs last season.

Kyle Orton, QB, Broncos. He gets overlooked because of all the Tim Tebow hype, but Orton handled himself well during camp and preseason action. He had a great preseason, completing 67 percent of his passes for 397 yards and four touchdowns. He made plays and moved the offense. As long as he is starting, Orton has fantasy value in a pass-first Broncos offense. Orton plays Jacksonville to open the season, a team that allowed the fifth most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season. The Jags still have holes in the secondary this season as evident by their 21st ranking against the pass during the preseason. Orton can throw for 300 yards and a couple scores in this matchup.

Frank Gore, RB, 49ers. Gore got little work in the preseason, but with his two carries, Gore managed 58 yards. He seems setup for a big season, rushing behind a solid offensive line in an offense that should be run-first. He gets a Seahawks team this week that couldn't stop the run in the preseason, allowing 133 yards per game. Seattle allowed the seventh most fantasy points to running backs last season. In his first meeting with the Seahawks last season, Gore ran for 207 yards. Don't expect a repeat, but Gore should do well in this matchup.

Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers. A lot are down on Rivers because of the absence of Vincent Jackson. But the Chargers aren't going to shy away from the pass. Plus, they still have some solid options in the passing game - Antonio Gates, Malcolm Floyd, Darren Sproles. Rivers can still make some noise in this offense. And the Chargers are going to throw the ball. He has a great matchup to open the season, playing the Chiefs. Rivers had five touchdowns without an interception in two games against the Chiefs last season.

POOR PLAYS

Eli Manning, QB, Giants. Manning didn't play much most of the preseason, which isn't a huge concern, but kind of a concern considering his opening game matchup. He plays the Panthers, who were the top rated team against the pass during the preseason and allowed the third fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks last season. The Panthers limit the pass attack, which means the Giants could be faced to run more often in this matchup. Don't expect Manning to post huge numbers.

Justin Forsett, RB, Seahawks. Forsett was named the starter in Seattle earlier this week. That is the good news. The bad news is he plays the 49ers, a team he rushed 10 times for 44 yards in two games last season. San Francisco was fifth against the run in the preseason, allowing 86 yards per game. The 49ers should have one of the better defenses in the league. And the Seahawks are a mess offensively, which isn't a good combo for Forsett, making him a shaky play this week.

Owen Daniels, TE, Texans. We are still concerned about Daniels as he recovers from his knee surgery. He is expected to be ready for the opening game, but is going to be on a limited snap count. He might not get a ton of action as he gets closer to full strength. Until he shows he is ready for game action, we might go with safer options, especially this week against the Colts. Indy was the top team in terms of fewest fantasy points allowed to tight ends last season.

Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders. McFadden could play a little bigger role in the Raiders offense early in the season with Michael Bush recovering from a broke finger. While more touches are a good thing for McFadden, we still aren't sold on McFadden finally breaking out. He just hasn't gotten "it." And the Raiders get a Titans team committed to stopping the run better this season. Tennessee was second against the run during the preseason, allowing just 72 yards per game.

Anquan Boldin, WR, Ravens. Boldin makes his Ravens regular season debut against the Jets. This isn't a great matchup for Boldin, likely getting paired against Darrelle Revis much of the game. Revis missed all of training camp, but we still think he'll be primed and ready for the Jets home opener in a big stage on Monday night. Boldin will have issues getting open against the Jets secondary.

SLEEPERS

Arian Foster, RB, Texans. He won't be on this list for long because everyone will know his name in a few weeks. But for now, we'll consider Foster a sleeper. He had a breakout training camp, running away with the starter's job in the high-powered Texans offense. Foster is going to produce big numbers if he can stay healthy. He gets things started this week against the Colts, a team 21st in fantasy points allowed last season. Indy has a history of struggling against the run, so look for Foster and the Texans to exploit this weakness.

Derek Anderson, QB, Cardinals. Anderson makes his starting debut with the Cardinals after beating out Matt Leinart during the preseason. Anderson wasn't exactly Dan Marino but made more plays downfield and seemed to win his teammates over. He has some potential in an offense with some solid weapons at receiver, but will likely be inconsistent. But he'll be worth using in the right matchup. And a season opening game against the Rams is a good one. St. Louis struggled against the pass all of last season and didn't look much better this preseason, ranking 30th against the pass, allowing 250 yards per game.

Devin Hester, WR, Bears. Hester has some guys to compete with for targets, but he still has plenty of upside in a pass-happy Bears offense this season. He is going to be a matchup play. And this week's matchup against the Lions is a good one. Hester finished last season with three catches for 75 yards his last game against the Lions. And Detroit continues to have little depth and talent at cornerback, which is a concern for a defense that allowed the fourth most fantasy points to receivers last season. Hester is a good play as a No. 3 or 4 receiver.

Lee Evans, WR, Bills. Evans has fallen off fantasy radars, mainly because of his erratic play in a poor Bills offense. But Evans remains capable of the big game. He has a track record of helping fantasy teams when all is right. All is not right in Buffalo, but the Bills offense does look to be better than last season, which is a positive for Evans. We still think Evans has upside as a No. 3 or 4 fantasy receiver. He can post big numbers because of his big-play ability. We like his chances for a few big plays against a below-average Dolphins secondary. Miami was 17th in fantasy points allowed to receivers last season. They are susceptible to the big play.

Jake Delhomme, QB, Browns. It is tough to recommend Delhomme after his last few seasons, but his preseason has opened our eyes a bit. We know it is preseason, but Delhomme showed some signs of life for the first time in a few seasons. He completed an impressive 79 percent of his passes for 345 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. He still doesn't have much to work with at receiver, but that was the case for much of his career in Carolina. He is capable of the big game every once in a while. Delhomme could have that big game this week, facing the Bucs. Tampa had issues against the pass last season and that seems to have carried over to 2010, ranking 29th against the pass in the preseason.

WAIVER WIRE POSSIBILITIES

Derek Anderson, QB, Cardinals. Anderson wasn't drafted in most leagues and takes over as the starting quarterback in a passing game with some weapons. He'll be up and down, but has some upside for the big game. He is worth a gamble if you are looking for quarterback depth.

Isaac Redman, RB, Steelers. Redman is going to get first crack at handling the goal-line and short-yardage work for the Steelers. He could rack up some scores in this role. We aren't sold on him getting all the goal-line work with Rashard Mendenhall around, but he should get some chances in this role. He has obvious touchdown potential, making him someone to consider, especially if you are in touchdown-only leagues.

Dennis Dixon, QB, Steelers. Dixon will be the starter for the Steelers to open the season. He almost got the job by default as Byron Leftwich got hurt. But Dixon can do some good things in a starting role. He runs well and has a big arm. In the right matchup, he could post some favorable fantasy numbers. He might be worth a start or two while he is filling in for the suspended Ben Roethlisberger.

Mike Williams, WR, Seahawks. Williams has been a huge surprise this camp and preseason. He has emerged as a go-to option in the passing game and the likely No. 1 receiver for the Seahawks. His emergence made T.J. Houshmandzadeh expendable for the Seahawks. Williams isn't likely to post eye popping numbers, but he is worth a flier if you are looking for receiver help. He could lead the Seahawks in targets.

Louis Murphy, WR, Raiders. With Chaz Schilens hurt again - go figure - the Raiders are searching for a No. 1 receiver. And right now, that guy is Murphy. He had six catches for 154 yards and a touchdown during the preseason. He has potential for a breakout season, having a legit quarterback throwing him passes this season (Jason Campbell).

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Vikings/Saints, Broncos/Jags, Colts/Texans, Lions/Bears, Bengals/Patriots, Packers/Eagles, Chargers/Chiefs.

Low Scoring Games: Panthers/Giants, Browns/Bucs, Raiders/Titans, Cowboys/Redskins, Ravens/Jets.

If you have any questions or comments, please email Jeff Paur at jeff@rtsports.com


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