Lineup Prep: Championship Games
Wed Jan 24 8:44am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Gibbs can produce big this week
Last week was sure entertaining. Let’s hope the games this week are just as good. I sure think it is possible. The matchups seems pretty even to me. I know the 49ers are pretty good favorites against the Lions at home, but I think Detroit can keep it close. And the Chiefs/Ravens game is setup to be fantastic. These teams are both rolling right now. We get to see two of the greatest quarterbacks in football battle it out to make the Super Bowl. This should be fun.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
Those were some games last week. It was fun to watch, especially that Chiefs/Bills game. You have to feel for Josh Allen. He had a great run in the playoffs, but just can’t get over that Kansas City hump. It was there for the taking last week for Allen, but his field goal kicker let him down. I still think Allen is an elite level quarterback than can win the big game. It will come for him sooner than later. He is just running into a buzz saw with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs right now.
I don’t think Brock Purdy silenced the doubters after last week’s game. He was not great until that last game-winning drive. He still looked a little shaky to me most of that game. And the loss of Deebo Samuel could be huge for him and the offense. Samuel seems to be a calming influence for Purdy. I am interested to see him play this week. This could be make or break for him.
Aaron Jones sure is a difference maker when healthy. He was unbelievable for the Packers down the stretch, having five straight 100-yard rushing games. The issue is Jones is hard to trust because of his injury history and age. He is 29 years old and missed five games each of the last two seasons and played a full season just once the last five years. I love his talent, but have a hard time taking him on draft day - even after his huge finish to this season.
I’m happy for Baker Mayfield. He seems to have found a home after a rocky start to his career. He was terrific for the Bucs with that great group of receivers. And he almost played that team into the NFC Championship game last week, throwing three more touchdown passes. I don’t see the Bucs letting him loose and I think he could be a top-10 fantasy quarterback once again next season in Tampa. I don’t think it was a fluke this year.
I am really hoping the Texans make a run at Saquon Barkley this offseason. Could you imagine him in that offense? I think he would be a great fit and a huge spark for that running game in Houston. I think this would just be an ideal landing spot for Barkley when it comes to his fantasy value. Let’s make this happen!
The Ravens have a great team and are the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but can you imagine that offense with a healthy JK Dobbins or Keaton Mitchell all season. Both these backs are difference makers in my eyes and big upgrades over what they are using right now. I still think Dobbins can be a star in this league. Just something to keep in mind next season when these guys are back playing.
I like the Titans hire of Brian Callahan as their next head coach. He should be a positive for that offense, especially quarterback Will Levis. Hopefully, he can take this offense to a new level and give us a bunch of fantasy relevant players. Callahan is a bright, young offensive mind that has been integral in the development of Joe Burrow. Let’s hope he can do the same for Levis.
News and Notes: The Lions signed tight end Zach Ertz to their practice squad on Monday. Ertz gives the Lions depth at the position after an injury to Brock Wright.
HOT PLAYS
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. With Deebo Samuel very iffy to play, Aiyuk should be the top target at receiver for the 49ers this week. He didn’t do much last week, but was targeted six times in the game, which was encouraging. He gets a much better matchup this week against the Lions, a team that has allowed five straight 300-yard passing games. Aiyuk can have a big showing in this matchup.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions. Gibbs had a big game last week, topping 100 total yards while scoring a touchdown. He has touchdowns each of the first two playoff games for the Lions. He has 16-plus fantasy points each of those games. Gibbs is playing well and should be heavily involved in the offense again this week. The 49ers have been great against the run much of the year, but shown some issues stopping the run lately. San Francisco allowed 136-rushing yards last week and given up 100-plus rushing yards four of five games.
COLD PLAYS
Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff had a great overall season, but his fantasy numbers haven’t been too off the charts. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points three of five games. He is getting his yards, but the Lions tend to run the ball in more for scores than pass. He might be an iffy fantasy play this week against the 49ers. San Francisco allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season.
Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens. Edwards has failed to score each of his last two games, giving him really poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than six fantasy points each of his last two games, failing to hit 50-rushing yards each of those games. Edwards could have a similar showing this week against the Chiefs, a team that allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs. Kansas City allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season.
SLEEPERS
Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens. Bateman had three receptions for 39 yards on three targets last week. He had a solid game but failed to hit double-digit fantasy points once again. The good news is he got his looks once again. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense, but Bateman could have more favorable coverages than Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. Those guys should draw the tougher assignments, leaving Bateman a chance to make some big plays in the passing game. He could surprise this week.
Justice Hill, RB, Ravens. Hill led the Ravens in rushing last week, including rushing attempts. He got more work than starter Gus Edwards. Hill had 15 touches for 77 total yards. He could be setup for a similar workload in what could be a high-scoring fantasy teams. This means Hill could have a big fantasy showing. At this point, we might trust Hill more than Edwards, who is a more touchdown dependent player.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Chiefs/Ravens, Lions/49ers.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Miami Dolphins DL Calais Campbell told reporters on Monday, June 17, that he will be 'very surprised if I don't play literally every position on the d-line at some point in time (in 2024).'
From TheHuddle
Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson (shoulder) is ahead of schedule in terms of his recovery from shoulder surgery, according to general manager Andrew Berry.
Fantasy Spin: Watson was able to throw some during offseason workouts and should be at least a limited participant when training camp starts. He has not posted great numbers since joining the Browns a few years ago and probably should be considered a No. 2 quarterback in fantasy leagues.
From TheHuddle
Updating a previous report, free-agent DE Takkarist McKinley (Cowboys) signed a one-year contract worth $1.125 million with the New York Jets on Tuesday, June 18.
From TheHuddle
Updating a previous report, free-agent S Tony Jefferson (Giants) signed a one-year contract worth $1.21 million with the Los Angeles Chargers on Tuesday, June 18.
From TheHuddle
Updating a previous report, free-agent S Marcus Maye (Saints) signed a one-year contract worth $1.3775 million - including a $167,600 signing bonus - with the Los Angeles Chargers on Tuesday, June 18.
From TheHuddle
Updating a previous report, free-agent DL Calais Campbell (Falcons) signed an undisclosed contract with the Miami Dolphins on Tuesday, June 18. WR Mathew Sexton was waived to make room for him on the roster.
From TheHuddle
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk posted a video on his TikTok account saying that the team "don't want me back." It's highly unlikely that is the 49ers' actual stance on the ascending wideout, but Aiyuk held out of mandatory minicamp this month as he seeks a long-term contract extension. If an extension isn't reached with the Niners, Aiyuk will play the 2024 campaign on his fifth-year team option, which was exercised earlier this year. The 26-year-old former 25th overall pick in 2020 out of Arizona State had 75 receptions for a career-high 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns in 16 regular-season starts and helped lead the team to a Super Bowl appearance last year. There's a chance that Aiyuk extends his holdout into training camp at the end of July, but contract issues aside, he profiles as a low-end WR1 in head coach Kyle Shanahan's offense.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commander rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, the second overall pick in this year's NFL draft, has done nothing but impress this offseason as he heads into his first year in the league in 2024. Daniels has yet to face a live pass rush, but what he's done to this point has been impressive nonetheless. The Commanders hope the former Heisman Trophy winner can bring stability under center in D.C. Teammates and coaches say that the 23-year-old signal-caller is ahead of schedule in learning the offense. "He's further along than you probably should be," head coach Dan Quinn said. It remains to be seen if he'll continue to look this good in training camp and the preseason, but Daniels' pedigree and dual-threat ability should make him fantasy relevant in his first NFL season as a QB2 in superflex leagues if he beats out Marcus Mariota for the starting gig.
From RotoBaller
Nobody performed better and more consistently for four weeks during offseason workouts than Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth. He had an instant connection with new quarterback Russell Wilson and came across as a potential playmaker in new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith's tight-end-heavy offense. Pittsburgh can overcome their shortcomings at the receiver spot by relying more on Freiermuth this year. Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts went over 1,000 yards as a rookie in Smith's offense, and Jonnu Smith had 50 catches with the Falcons in 2023, so there is a history of TEs thriving in this system. Freiermuth is talented enough to take a short pass and turn it into a big gain. Despite catching a career-low 32 passes for 308 yards and two TDs last year in 12 regular-season games, Freiermuth is entering his fourth season as a highly attractive high-end TE2 in fantasy.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson got off to a good start during organized team activities this offseason, and his leadership was more than noticeable. Wilson also stood out with his arm talent, though, and he did nothing through 12 practices to even slightly indicate that he could lose the QB competition to Justin Fields. Wilson's work ethic, experience, arm talent and the fact that he basically took all the first-team snaps strongly suggest that nothing he can do between July 24 and the Sept. 8 regular-season opener would prevent him from starting to open the year. The 35-year-old veteran is going to need to perform all year to hold off Fields, however, and the lack of experience in the receiving corps is cause for concern from a fantasy standpoint. Wilson bounced back in 2023 in Denver after a bad first year with the Broncos, but he's merely a QB2 in fantasy in 2024 with his new team.
From RotoBaller
If there is one wide receiver besides George Pickens who has a chance to have a big role in the Pittsburgh Steelers' offense this year, it's wide receiver Calvin Austin III. Austin continued to get better from the first day to the last during offseason workouts and will have a chance for a much bigger role this year with Diontae Johnson now in Carolina. In addition, receiver/running back/kick returner Cordarrelle Patterson could have a key role as a gadget player on offense for Pittsburgh in 2024. The 25-year-old Austin will be competing with Van Jefferson, Quez Watkins, Scott Miller and rookie third-rounder Roman Wilson for the No. 2 job behind Pickens in training camp. He caught only 17 of his 30 targets for 180 yards and a touchdown while also carrying the ball 11 times for 57 yards and a score in 17 games last year. Austin is one to watch this summer.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers former first-round quarterback Justin Fields still has plenty of talent, but he has lots of obstacles to overcome for an opportunity in his first year in the Steel City in 2024 with veteran Russell Wilson in front of him. Fields didn't get many first-team repetition in offseason practices. His arm strength, speed and playmaking abilities with his legs are undeniable, but he showed inconsistent accuracy and relied on his feet too quickly after his first read during offseason workouts. The 25-year-old signal-caller is still a work in progress and is going to start the year as Wilson's backup. Fields should still be rostered in all dynasty/keeper leagues, but unless Wilson is eventually benched or misses time in 2024 due to injury, Fields' fantasy stock in single-year leagues is at an all-time low.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Darnell Washington struggled last year during spring workouts, and nothing has changed a full year later. Washington has proven himself as a solid blocking tight end, but he's not going to be a 30-catch guy based on what we've seen from him in his second offseason. Even in offensive coordinator Arthur Smith's tight-end-friendly scheme, fantasy managers in deeper leagues shouldn't expect Washington to have much more offensive output than he had last year, when he went for seven catches on 10 targets for 61 yards and no touchdowns in 17 regular-season games (seven starts). The 22-year-old former third-round pick last year out of Georgia doesn't figure to be on the fantasy radar in redraft leagues in 2024 unless Pat Freiermuth misses time with an injury.
From RotoBaller
The Pittsburgh Steelers needed wide receiver Van Jefferson to stand out during offseason workouts, but he didn't. Spring practices typically don't mean a ton, but nothing has jumped out to suggest that Jefferson can be a difference-maker in 2024 with both Diontae Johnson and Allen Robinson II now out of town. Outside of George Pickens, there is a lot of opportunity in the Steelers' receivers room, but it looks like Jefferson hasn't really seized a role. As we head to training camp at the end of July, Jefferson will be competing with Calvin Austin II, rookie Roman Wilson, Scotty Miller and Quez Watkins for a role in the passing game in his first year in Pittsburgh. The 27-year-old had 20 receptions for only 209 yards and no touchdowns in 17 games (nine starts) with the Falcons and Rams in 2023 and will be a long shot for fantasy relevance outside of very deep leagues as receiver depth.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane had an explosive rookie season. The 2023 third-round pick posted 800 yards and eight touchdowns on just 103 carries and added 27 receptions for 197 yards and three touchdowns as a receiver. However, he's looking to develop his route-running and overall receiving skill set, according to Dolphins reporter David Furones. "Two specific goals Achane has this offseason:" Furones wrote. "Get stronger to better withstand the hits taken in the NFL and improve on his route-running to get the ball more often in the passing game." Achane led all Miami running backs with 37 targets last season, and he has a clear path to doing it again since Raheem Mostert isn't much of a pass-catcher, and rookie Jaylen Wright didn't show much as a receiver at Tennessee. Any extra receiving work could elevate Achane into the next tier of fantasy running backs, so this is a good sign for his potential upside in Year 2.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs running back Carson Steele and Deneric Prince are behind second-team running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire on the depth chart this offseason, but either player could enter the fantasy football radar in 2024 if the backfield is on the wrong side of injury luck. Steele, a rookie undrafted free agent, rushed for 847 yards and six touchdowns and caught 17 passes for 163 yards and two scores in his final collegiate season at UCLA. According to Charles Goldman of AtoZ Sports, he has impressed the team this summer. "Prince seems to be the running back poised to sneak into the rotation," Goldman wrote. "But watch out for Steele, who impressed during his opportunities at mandatory minicamp." Prince spent last season with the Chiefs but played in just two games and did not record a touch. With Jerick McKinnon not currently on the roster, one of the team's young undrafted backs could push Edwards-Helaire for the RB2 role. Even if CEH holds onto the backup spot, Kansas City's RB3 should be monitored in deep fantasy football leagues.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Casey Washington has a tough road to playing time as a rookie, considering he was a sixth-round selection in the 2024 NFL draft. However, Falcons writer Daniel Flick reports that the Illinois product is making waves this offseason. "After rookie minicamp, Washington started OTAs working with the third- and fourth-string offenses," Flick wrote. "By the middle of OTAs, he began blending in with the first- and second-team unit, catching passes from Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr." While it's important not to overreact to offseason developments, it's a great sign for Washington's chance to make the 53-man roster. Washington racked up just 1,508 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns in 55 collegiate games, but Atlanta clearly liked something they saw on tape, and his performance in practice is all that matters from this point on. Washington isn't on the fantasy radar yet, but he could push KhaDarel Hodge or Ray-Ray McCloudfor a roster spot behind Drake London, Rondale Moore, and Darnell Mooney.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs rookie tight end Jared Wiley is already getting reps with the starting offense, according to reporter Charles Goldman. "Wiley might turn out to be the biggest surprise of the 2024 NFL draft class for Kansas City. He's already getting a lot of play with the starters, getting looks in the red zone in the Jody Fortson role," Goldman wrote. "If he's good enough when the pads come on, he could quickly supplant Noah Gray, who is slated to be a free agent in 2025." The 23-year-old was a fourth-round pick in April's draft after catching 47 passes for 520 yards and eight touchdowns in his final collegiate season at TCU. The 6-foot-6, 249-pound pass-catcher could be a dangerous weapon in the red zone when the team operates in 12-personnel, and this development should put him slightly on the fantasy radar in deep tight-end premium leagues. Deep-league dynasty managers should consider stashing him, as Gray could be moving on soon, and superstar tight end Travis Kelce could retire at any point.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs rookie offensive lineman Kingsley Suamataia has shared first-team reps with Wanya Morris this offseason, but the first-year player out of BYU is trending toward being the Week 1 starter at left tackle. Suamataia was selected with the No. 63 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, so the fact that he's already taken first-team reps is promising. In 2023, Patrick Mahomes was the second-most-hurried quarterback (60) in the NFL, which contributed to the team lacking a downfield passing game for the first time in his career. The organization brought in Suamataia to potentially alleviate that issue, and gaining valuable reps from the start of the regular season could prepare him for the team's postseason run in search of becoming the first franchise to win three consecutive Super Bowls.
From RotoBaller
