Lineup Prep: Championship Games
Wed Jan 24 8:44am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Gibbs can produce big this week
Last week was sure entertaining. Let’s hope the games this week are just as good. I sure think it is possible. The matchups seems pretty even to me. I know the 49ers are pretty good favorites against the Lions at home, but I think Detroit can keep it close. And the Chiefs/Ravens game is setup to be fantastic. These teams are both rolling right now. We get to see two of the greatest quarterbacks in football battle it out to make the Super Bowl. This should be fun.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
Those were some games last week. It was fun to watch, especially that Chiefs/Bills game. You have to feel for Josh Allen. He had a great run in the playoffs, but just can’t get over that Kansas City hump. It was there for the taking last week for Allen, but his field goal kicker let him down. I still think Allen is an elite level quarterback than can win the big game. It will come for him sooner than later. He is just running into a buzz saw with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs right now.
I don’t think Brock Purdy silenced the doubters after last week’s game. He was not great until that last game-winning drive. He still looked a little shaky to me most of that game. And the loss of Deebo Samuel could be huge for him and the offense. Samuel seems to be a calming influence for Purdy. I am interested to see him play this week. This could be make or break for him.
Aaron Jones sure is a difference maker when healthy. He was unbelievable for the Packers down the stretch, having five straight 100-yard rushing games. The issue is Jones is hard to trust because of his injury history and age. He is 29 years old and missed five games each of the last two seasons and played a full season just once the last five years. I love his talent, but have a hard time taking him on draft day - even after his huge finish to this season.
I’m happy for Baker Mayfield. He seems to have found a home after a rocky start to his career. He was terrific for the Bucs with that great group of receivers. And he almost played that team into the NFC Championship game last week, throwing three more touchdown passes. I don’t see the Bucs letting him loose and I think he could be a top-10 fantasy quarterback once again next season in Tampa. I don’t think it was a fluke this year.
I am really hoping the Texans make a run at Saquon Barkley this offseason. Could you imagine him in that offense? I think he would be a great fit and a huge spark for that running game in Houston. I think this would just be an ideal landing spot for Barkley when it comes to his fantasy value. Let’s make this happen!
The Ravens have a great team and are the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but can you imagine that offense with a healthy JK Dobbins or Keaton Mitchell all season. Both these backs are difference makers in my eyes and big upgrades over what they are using right now. I still think Dobbins can be a star in this league. Just something to keep in mind next season when these guys are back playing.
I like the Titans hire of Brian Callahan as their next head coach. He should be a positive for that offense, especially quarterback Will Levis. Hopefully, he can take this offense to a new level and give us a bunch of fantasy relevant players. Callahan is a bright, young offensive mind that has been integral in the development of Joe Burrow. Let’s hope he can do the same for Levis.
News and Notes: The Lions signed tight end Zach Ertz to their practice squad on Monday. Ertz gives the Lions depth at the position after an injury to Brock Wright.
HOT PLAYS
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. With Deebo Samuel very iffy to play, Aiyuk should be the top target at receiver for the 49ers this week. He didn’t do much last week, but was targeted six times in the game, which was encouraging. He gets a much better matchup this week against the Lions, a team that has allowed five straight 300-yard passing games. Aiyuk can have a big showing in this matchup.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions. Gibbs had a big game last week, topping 100 total yards while scoring a touchdown. He has touchdowns each of the first two playoff games for the Lions. He has 16-plus fantasy points each of those games. Gibbs is playing well and should be heavily involved in the offense again this week. The 49ers have been great against the run much of the year, but shown some issues stopping the run lately. San Francisco allowed 136-rushing yards last week and given up 100-plus rushing yards four of five games.
COLD PLAYS
Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff had a great overall season, but his fantasy numbers haven’t been too off the charts. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points three of five games. He is getting his yards, but the Lions tend to run the ball in more for scores than pass. He might be an iffy fantasy play this week against the 49ers. San Francisco allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season.
Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens. Edwards has failed to score each of his last two games, giving him really poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than six fantasy points each of his last two games, failing to hit 50-rushing yards each of those games. Edwards could have a similar showing this week against the Chiefs, a team that allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs. Kansas City allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season.
SLEEPERS
Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens. Bateman had three receptions for 39 yards on three targets last week. He had a solid game but failed to hit double-digit fantasy points once again. The good news is he got his looks once again. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense, but Bateman could have more favorable coverages than Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. Those guys should draw the tougher assignments, leaving Bateman a chance to make some big plays in the passing game. He could surprise this week.
Justice Hill, RB, Ravens. Hill led the Ravens in rushing last week, including rushing attempts. He got more work than starter Gus Edwards. Hill had 15 touches for 77 total yards. He could be setup for a similar workload in what could be a high-scoring fantasy teams. This means Hill could have a big fantasy showing. At this point, we might trust Hill more than Edwards, who is a more touchdown dependent player.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Chiefs/Ravens, Lions/49ers.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Hot Plays, Fades and Sleepers: Week 3
New England Patriots quarterback Jacoby Brissett completed 12 of 18 pass attempts for 98 yards, zero touchdowns, and zero turnovers against the New York Jets in Week 3. He also took five sacks, which is a clear indication that New England has a porous offensive line. The unit has specifically been bad in pass protection, which has left Brissett with very little time to get comfortable in the pocket and connect with his receivers. The veteran quarterback has done a great job controlling the football (he has zero turnovers through three games), but his overall yardage and touchdown totals are among the league's worst. Brissett was ultimately relieved by Drake Maye in the fourth quarter of Thursday's game, creating some questions about who will start at quarterback in Week 4 against the San Francisco 49ers. Regardless of that decision, Brissett can be avoided in most fantasy leagues moving forward.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo was non-committal when asked if he would consider a quarterback change heading into Week 4 of the 2024 season. "I don't know," Mayo told the media after Thursday's loss to the New York Jets. "We talk about it every single week: you're competing for a job. We'll get together as a coaching staff." Mayo pulled Jacoby Brissett in the waning minutes of a three-score game to get some reps for Drake Maye, who made his NFL debut. Maye led a solid drive, completing four of eight passes for 22 yards, rushing for 12 yards, and taking two sacks. He had the Patriots close to the end zone, but time expired before the Patriots could score. There were certainly some pros and cons from his limited sample size, and the biggest factor to consider is the offensive line. New England's pass protection has looked dreadful this season, so New England might not want to expose its No. 3 pick to tremendous pressure. That's especially true for Week 4 when the Patriots face a strong San Francisco 49ers defensive front. If Mayo wants to keep his young quarterback healthy and focus on his development, he'll likely roll out Brissett as his starter. But if the first-year head coach is ready to turn the page to a new chapter and throw Maye into the fire, that's well within the realm of possibilities. We should get more clarity on the Patriots' quarterback situation in the coming days.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots QB Drake Maye replaced QB Jacoby Brissett in the fourth quarter of the Week 3 game against the New York Jets, completing four of his eight passes for 22 yards and rushing twice for 12 yards in a 24-3 loss.
Fantasy Spin: Maye will be the starter in New England at some point, and if the Patriots continue to lose, the rookie's time will come sooner rather than later. Maye should be stashed in keeper leagues.
From TheHuddle
New England Patriots QB Jacoby Brissett completed 12 of his 18 passes for 98 yards in a 24-3 loss to the New York Jets in Week 3. He was sacked five times.
Fantasy Spin: Brissett and the New England offense were stuck in the mud all night, and rookie Drake Maye replaced Brissett late in fourth quarter. It might not be a premanent change just yet, but Brissett's time as the starter could be over in the near future.
From TheHuddle
Updating a previous report, New England Patriots SS Jabrill Peppers (ankle) was able to return to the Week 3 game against the New York Jets.
From TheHuddle
Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta has been off to an extremely slow start to begin the 2024 season. Last week, quarterback Jared Goff threw for over 300 yards, but LaPorta finished with two receptions for 13 yards in the loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Fantasy managers expected much more from LaPorta who recorded nearly 900 yards and scored 10 touchdowns during his rookie season last year. The hope is that LaPorta is able to bounce back against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3. A defensive unit that has struggled early on, but has been able to keep the tight end in check. Despite that, LaPorta remains on the TE1 radar for a game that could be a shootout.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery has been able to salvage his fantasy value by finding the end zone through the first two weeks of the season. Last week, Montgomery struggled with 35 yards on 11 rushing attempts in the loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Luckily, Montgomery was able to save his value with a touchdown on the ground and four receptions through the air helped as well. He figures to continue splitting up the workload with fellow back Jahmyr Gibbs. Montgomery has seen 11 or more attempts on the ground through the first two games. He should continue to remain a significant part of the offense during the Week 3 matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. The 27-year-old should be a fine RB2 against a shaky Cardinals defense.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs had plenty of success on the ground versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. The young back rushed 13 times for 84 yards all hauled in all seven of his targets for 22 yards in the loss. The Lions have made it clear early in the season that they want to get Gibbs heavily involved in this offense. He should continue to have success against the Arizona Cardinals defense in Week 3. The versatility of Gibbs makes him such an intriguing weapon on offense. He should remain a strong RB1 for Week 3.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots SS Jabrill Peppers (ankle) exited the Week 3 game against the New York Jets with an ankle injury and is questionable to return.
From TheHuddle
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff threw for over 300 yards, but still ended up having a bad performance last week. Goff was airing it out as he completed 34-of-55 passing attempts, but he threw zero touchdowns and two interceptions in the loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Goff has 524 passing yards through two games as he heads into a favorable matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. A defensive unit that has struggled to contain the pass. Despite that, Goff hasn't done enough to be considered anything more than a QB2 heading into this game.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins running back Jeff Wilson Jr. (oblique) was able to get through a full practice session on Thursday. This is good news after Wilson opened the week with a limited session on Wednesday. Wilson is working his way back from an oblique injury he suffered during the Week 2 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Normally, Wilson isn't a huge part of the offense, but he could see an increased workload in Week 3. Fellow back Raheem Mostert (chest) remained limited on Thursday and is uncertain for the Week 3 matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. If he sits, Wilson would be the No. 2 back behind De'Von Achane which should mean increased fantasy value.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers rookie wide receiver Roman Wilson (ankle) was limited in the first practice of the week on Wednesday but was upgraded to a full participant on Thursday, signaling that he could be on his way to making his NFL debut in Week 3 against the visiting Los Angeles Chargers unless he suffers a setback on Friday. Wilson has been recovering from an ankle injury since training camp last month, but after missing the first two weeks of his rookie campaign, the 23-year-old could be active this weekend versus the Bolts as Pittsburgh looks to start 3-0. The third-rounder is currently rostered in only 2% of Yahoo leagues, but he has potential to become a popular waiver-wire pickup in fantasy as the WR2 behind George Pickens. Initially, Wilson will be competing with Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin III and Scotty Miller for targets, but expect the Steelers to ease him into the offense.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints tight end Taysom Hill (chest) was listed as a limited practice participant on Thursday after he was held out of the first practice of the week on Wednesday. It's progress for Hill, but he could still be up in the air to play in a Week 3 home showdown against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Swiss Army Knife left the Week 2 blowout win over the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday with a chest injury and had to visit a local hospital in Dallas as a result. The Saints are surprisingly the highest-scoring offense in the league after two weeks, but it's discouraging that Hill has only eight carries for 53 yards while catching two of his three targets for just two yards. Hill played 32% of the offensive snaps in Week 1 before playing 47% of the snaps against Dallas. If the 34-year-old is able to play on Sunday, he'll be a boom/bust TE2 in fantasy, and if he's out, it will make Juwan Johnson a more appealing TE2 sleeper pick.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs (ankle) said earlier this week that he expects to make his 2024 season debut this Sunday in Week 3 at Lucas Oil Stadium against the visiting Chicago Bears. Downs put in a second straight day of full practice on Thursday, meaning he's well on his way to suiting up for the first time this year. A high-ankle sprain that he suffered last month in training camp kept Downs out for the first two games of the season. The Colts could ease him back into the offense, but those that have plucked Alec Pierce off the waiver wire the last couple of weeks can't be too stoked that Downs is on the verge of a return. If he's active in Week 3, he'll make for a risky flex option in fantasy lineups, but eventually, Downs is expected to be Indy's WR2 behind Michael Pittman Jr. after he caught 68 passes for 771 yards and two touchdowns in 17 games in his rookie season in 2023.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts kicker Matt Gay (quadriceps) did not take part in the first practice of the week on Wednesday, but he's now on track to play in Week 3 versus the Chicago Bears on Sunday after returning to a full practice participant on Thursday. Gay had surgery for a sports hernia right before the start of the regular season and was unable to kick in the Week 1 loss to the division-rival Houston Texans. He returned for the Week 2 loss to the Green Bay Packers, though, making one of his two field-goal tries and converting his only extra-point attempt. Barring a setback with his quad muscle, the 30-year-old veteran should be active this weekend against a strong Bears defense. The Bears defense has actually been a top-12 fantasy matchup for opposing kickers through two weeks, but after Indy's offense was shut down in Green Bay last week, fantasy managers should be looking to avoid a banged-up Gay.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks LB Uchenna Nwosu (knee), S K'Von Wallace (shoulder), DT Jarran Reed (knee) and DT Johnathan Hankins (non-injury) did not participate in practice Thursday, Sept. 19. TE Brady Russell (shoulder), LB Jerome Baker (hamstring), LB Boye Mafe (knee), DT Leonard Williams (knee, shin), TE Pharaoh Brown (foot), TE Noah Fant (toe), OT George Fant (knee), LB Derick Hall (hip) and CB Devon Witherspoon (hamstring) were limited during practice. OG Laken Tomlinson (non-injury), WR Laviska Shenault Jr. (foot), LB Tyrel Dodson (shoulder) and OG Anthony Bradford (knee) fully participated in practice.
From TheHuddle
Houston Texans tight end Dalton Schultz (ankle) was able to practice in full on Thursday after he was listed as a limited participant for the first practice of the week on Wednesday. Even though Schultz is on the Week 3 injury report, his return to a full practice on Thursday should pave the way for him to be active this Sunday to take on the 2-0 Minnesota Vikings. There are a lot of mouths to feed through the air in this Houston offense, and Schultz has only garnered six targets through two games, hauling in five of them for 37 yards and no touchdowns. The slow start has pushed him down to TE2 territory in fantasy, but the Week 3 matchup against the Vikings could put him in play to have his best game of the early 2024 campaign. The Vikings defense has allowed the fifth-most half-PPR fantasy points to the tight end position through two games.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (chest) put in his second straight day of limited practice this week on Thursday after he was held out of last Thursday night's loss to the division-rival Buffalo Bills on a short week. In addition, RB Jeff Wilson Jr. (oblique) upgraded to a full practice on Thursday after he was limited on Wednesday. The 32-year-old Mostert has apparently improved since last week, but he could still be questionable for the Week 3 game at Lumen Field against the Seattle Seahawks. In the Week 1 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, Mostert played 44% of the offensive snaps behind De'Von Achane and had only six carries for a measly nine rushing yards while catching two passes for 10 yards. Miami is going to rotate their backs in 2024, but it's clear that Achane is the favorite to lead in touches, and he also has the most upside of any Dolphins back. Mostert heads into Week 3 as a shaky fantasy RB.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett (thigh) was limited during practice Thursday, Sept. 19.
Fantasy Spin: Lockett should be ready to play in Week 3, but fantasy players can check closer to game time to see if anything changes. He will see a decent amount of targets if he plays and could be a possible flex option in most leagues.
From TheHuddle
Seattle Seahawks tight ends Noah Fant (toe) and Pharaoh Brown (foot) were both listed as limited in Thursday's practice for the second straight day this week as they prepare to face off against the visiting Miami Dolphins in Week 3 at Lumen Field. Fant can't seem to shake his toe injury early this year, but it hasn't kept him from playing through the season's first two weeks. The 26-year-old has played at least 75% of the offensive snaps in coordinator Ryan Grubb's new offense, but it's led to only three catches on seven targets for 25 yards and no touchdowns in two weeks. He continues to be the fourth option for quarterback Geno Smith behind receivers DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, leaving him very little fantasy upside. Fant should be fine to suit up this weekend against Miami, where he should be considered a touchdown-dependent, low-end TE2.
From RotoBaller
