Lineup Prep: Super Bowl
Wed Feb 7 8:43am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Pacheco is playing at high level
Not sure about you, but there is not a better weekend in sports than Super Bowl weekend. It is as good as it gets. Just everything involved with it is so much fun. I am so looking forward to it all this weekend. Let’s hope it is a good game and lives up to the hype. Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
I will give you my pick for the game right off the bat. I think it will be a close game, but look for the Chiefs to squeak it out. I think the experience factor plays a difference here in the end, especially when it comes to the quarterback position. Patrick Mahomes has been outstanding during the playoffs and think he has a huge advantage over Brock Purdy. Plus, the Chiefs defense has been outstanding lately, completely shutting down the opponent. I don’t see them shutting down the 49ers high-powered offense, but think they will cause Purdy problems. I’m going with a Chiefs 31-27 victory.
If you still don’t have any fantasy teams alive in the playoffs, consider playing our fun pickem contests. We have tons of options available to play with for the Super Bowl. I wanted to give you a few of my favorite pickem plays for the big game. Give me Travis Kelce more than 70.5-receiving yards. Kelce has 71-plus yards all three of his playoff games and is coming off arguably his best game of the season. And the 49ers struggled to stop the tight end last week, seeing Sam LaPorta rack up the receptions and yards. I also like Brandon Aiyuk less than 61.5-receiving yards. Aiyuk has failed to hit that mark two of three games and has just three catches each of his last three games. Lastly, I like Deebo Samuel more than 79.5-rushing and receiving yards. Samuel had 11 touches his last game and was a huge part of the offense. I look for the 49ers to get him involved early and often, giving him good potential to rack up some total yards.
I’m not sure how I feel about the Commanders hiring of Kliff Kingsbury. His offenses were fine in Arizona, but not as explosive as many thought and he struggled some using Caleb Williams last year at USC. I think the Commanders would have been better served keeping Eric Bieniemy as their offensive coordinator. I thought he did a great job with the offense last year in Washington all things considered. I’m not convinced Kingsbury is going to be an upgrade.
On a different subject, can we stop teasing and showing parts of the Super Bowl commercials before the game? I mean part of the fun of the game is the commercials. They are always entertaining and a part of the event. But now, you see parts of the commercials before the game, ruining the surprise. C’mon people. Let’s stop this tradition right now.
We had our first TFC draft of the 2024 season last night. And in a surprise move, the first pick of the draft was Breece Hall. And we also saw Sam LaPorta get picked before Travis Kelce. It is always interesting to see how these early drafts shake out. A lot is going to change between now and the start of next season, but trends are starting now. In this draft, four running backs were picked in the first round compared to eight receivers. And the quarterback position looks as deep as ever with guys like Jordan Love getting picked in Round 11. Brock Purdy and Kirk Cousins also went very late.
News and Notes: The Chargers hired Greg Roman as their new offensive coordinator. Roman tends to be more run heavy when it comes to play calling. . . . .Former Texans and Patriots running back Rex Burkhead announced his retirement from the NFL on Tuesday.
HOT PLAYS
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs. Pacheco has taken his game to new heights during the Chiefs playoff run. He has at least 15 fantasy points four straight games and found the end zone seven consecutive games. He even has 20-plus carries two of three games, getting a big workload in the Chiefs offense. Expect more of the same this week from Pacheco. The 49ers allowed 182-rushing yards to the Lions their last game and allowed 135-plus rushing yards each of their two playoff games.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce has looked like a different player during these playoffs than the regular season. He had 11 receptions his last game and at least five catches all three playoff games. He has 14-plus fantasy points all three games. He has really elevated his game after a ho-hum second half of the season. Look for him to be the focal point of the Chiefs passing game once again this week. And San Francisco couldn’t contain Sam LaPorta in the Championship game, allowing him to get nine receptions for 97 yards. The Packers tight ends had six receptions and a touchdown in the 49ers other playoff game.
COLD PLAYS
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. Aiyuk did score a touchdown his last game, which was a big positive, but he had just three receptions. He has just three cathodes three straight games. He has were than 40 yards two of three. And with the Chiefs secondary clamping down on receivers right not, it could be more of the same for Aiyuk this week. He could be held in check once again.
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Chiefs. McKinnon is expected to make his long-awaited return this week, returning from a groin injury. He has not played since Week 15. Just remember he has not reached double-digit touches in a single game this year. Pacheco is the lead back in this offense and will get most of the work at running back. McKinnon played great during the Chiefs playoff run last season, but this is a new year. Plus, McKinnon has not played in several weeks, so you have to wonder how much he is even on the field. He will be a big risk to use for fantasy owners.
SLEEPERS
Jauan Jennings, WR, 49ers. There are always surprise players in the Super Bowl, so why not Jennings. He could draw the most favorable matchups in coverage for the 49ers receiver options. And he has looked good in the playoffs, having six receptions for 69 yards in two games. He played 42 percent of the snaps last week - even with Deebo Samuel back in the lineup. Jennings might get a big play or two in this one, making him an intriguing fantasy play.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Chiefs. Valdes-Scantling had the game-clinching reception in the Championship game, making a sliding catch on third down to clinch the game. He finished with two receptions for 38 yards. But he played a season-high 83 percent of the snaps in that game, which is encouraging. If he is on the field that much again this week, his reception and yardage totals could rise in what might be a high-scoring game.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Chiefs/49ers.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb has not been spotted for the team's mandatory minicamp, according to NFL insider Ian Rapoport. Lamb was also absent for voluntary OTAs, but his absence from mandatory team activities subjects him to fines. The 25-year-old is seeking a contract extension. Wide receivers Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra. St Brown, and Jaylen Waddle all signed deals this offseason that come with an average salary of at least $28.25 million. Meanwhile, DeVonta Smith, Nico Collins, Michael Pittman Jr., and Calvin Ridley also signed high-dollar contracts. After Lamb caught a league-leading 135 passes for 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2023, he's likely to surpass the 30 million dollar salary range when he is ultimately extended. His early absence this offseason is not ideal, but it should not concern fantasy managers about his 2024 season availability yet. Lamb is in consideration for the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy football this year, especially in PPR setups.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The 49ers have signed free agent tight end Logan Thomas. Dynasty Analysis: The one-year deal will give San Francisco some solid depth at the position and some insurance behind George Kittle. Thomas was solid last year in Washington where he posted a 55/496/4 line in 16 games but has never really established himself as an elite-level option after converting from quarterback years ago. Thomas has some back-end roster appeal because the 49ers do utilize multiple tight ends but it's hard to see him being anything close to a weekly starter if Kittle stays healthy.
Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said on Monday that defensive lineman Arik Armstead (knee) should be cleared for the start of training camp in late July. Armstead had offseason surgery to fix a torn meniscus that Armstead played through during the team's run to the Super Bowl early this year. The 30-year-old veteran pass-rusher signed a three-year, $51 million deal with the Jaguars in free agency after recording 27 tackles (15 solo), five sacks, four tackles for loss and 13 QB hits in 12 regular-season starts in his ninth and final year in San Francisco. In addition to his knee injury, Armstead also missed time in 2023 with a foot injury. Armstead only played in nine games in 2022 due to injuries, which could become more of an issue now that he's on the wrong side of 30.
From RotoBaller
During an interview at organized team activities on Monday, Atlanta Falcons second-year running back Bijan Robinson said the plan this year is to use him as a runner first, kind of "like how they use Christian (McCaffrey) down there in San Francisco," while still being creative with how they use him out of the backfield as a pass-catcher. It will be hard for Atlanta to be more run-heavy on offense than they were last year under head coach Arthur Smith, but the bottom line is that to no one's surprise, Robinson is going to be a focal point for the new offense run by Zac Robinson, a Sean McVay disciple. In an offense that should be able to sustain more drives with quarterback Kirk Cousins, Robinson has high-end RB1 upside going into his sophomore season after totaling 1,463 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns in his first year in the NFL in 2023.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks rookie tight end AJ Barner (hamstring) returned to organized team activities on Monday after sitting out of rookie minicamp and OTAs at the end of May with a hamstring injury. It's great news for the fourth-rounder, who can now start to get valuable on-field repetitions as he looks to learn a new offense and get up to speed before training camp starts at the end of July. The 22-year-old figures to be off the redraft fantasy radar in 2024 and should serve as depth at the position in Seattle behind Noah Fant and Pharaoh Brown. Barner is unlikely to play a significant role in his first year in the NFL and was seen on draft day as more of a project heading to the next level. He has an immense wing span and stands at 6-foot-6, but he accumulated only 610 yards and five touchdowns in 40 collegiate games at Indiana and Michigan.
From RotoBaller
According to Paul Dehner Jr. of The Athletic, Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase isn't expected to be offered a contract extension in the near future. With Justin Jefferson agreeing to a market-altering deal on Monday, Chase and his next contract are the next hot topic of discussion. However, with the Bengals notoriously known for waiting before securing their stars with new deals, Chase may not get an offer on an extension until the summer of 2025. Without question, the former LSU Tiger is worthy of a massive payday. He's appeared in 45 games for the Bengals since being selected with the No. 5 pick of the 2021 NFL Draft, accumulating 268 catches for 3,717 yards and 29 touchdowns. As such, Chase will be a first-round fantasy option heading into the 2024-25 campaign with or without a new contract. But he's battled injuries over the years, which fantasy managers may need to deal with throughout the season.
From RotoBaller
According to Brad Stainbrook of the Orange and Brown Report, the Cleveland Browns aren't interested in signing free-agent wide receiver Hunter Renfrow. There was talk Cleveland would look to sign the wideout, considering his ties to quarterback Deshaun Watson. However, that isn't the case, although Stainbrook believes both sides could "revisit" things once training camp draws closer. Renfrow had logged five seasons with the Raiders after the team selected him in the fifth round of the 2019 NFL Draft. He appeared in 73 games for the club, amassing 269 catches for 2,884 yards and 17 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production declined in the last few seasons. At any rate, Renfrow might get some calls from teams around the National Football League over the summer. But he has a way to go before earning a spot on fantasy rosters.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars TE Evan Engram has been impressive during offseason workouts, according to head coach Doug Pederson.
Fantasy Spin: Engram is coming off a career-high 963 yards this past season and should continue to have a big role in the passing game for the Jaguars. He should be a weekly starting option in fantasy leagues this upcoming season.
From TheHuddle
According to ESPN's Nick Wagoner, free-agent tight end Logan Thomas agreed to a one-year deal with the San Francisco 49ers. The 32-year-old began his career by making stops in Buffalo and Detroit. However, he made a name for himself in Washington, where he amassed 184 grabs for 1,685 yards and 14 touchdowns in 52 appearances for the Commanders. While Thomas will be behind George Kittle (abdomen) on the depth chart, he could still get involved enough to warrant a spot on some fantasy rosters. Of course, Thomas' stock will rise higher during the season if Kittle goes down with an injury.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent S Tony Jefferson (Giants) is scheduled to participate in the Los Angeles Chargers upcoming minicamp on a tryout basis, according to a source.
From TheHuddle
Updating a previous report, free-agent TE Logan Thomas (Commanders) agreed to terms on a one-year contract with the San Francisco 49ers Monday, June 3, according to a source. Financial terms were not disclosed.
From TheHuddle
Free-agent TE Logan Thomas (Commanders) agreed to terms with the San Francisco 49ers Monday, June 3, according to a source. Terms of the contract were not disclosed.
From TheHuddle
Jacksonville Jaguars OT Anton Harrison (shoulder) and DT Arik Armstead (undisclosed) worked on the side during the voluntary workout Monday, June 3.
From TheHuddle
Dynasty | Giants tight end Darren Waller is expected to soon announce his retirement. Dynasty Analysis: Nothing is official as of yet but it certainly sounds like an announcement is imminent. The longer this mystery lasted, the more likely this was going to be the outcome. Waller has battled myriad injuries over the past few years and was only able to post a 52/552/1 season last year, his first (and likely only) with the Giants. Now 31, Waller's career will be remembered for two back-to-back monster seasons with little at the beginning or the end. Dynasty managers hoping for a late career resurgence will likely need to look elsewhere here soon.
Dynasty | The Minnesota Vikings and wide receiver Justin Jefferson have reached an agreement on a new contract extension. Dynasty Analysis: It's a four-year, $140 million contract extension that includes $110 million guaranteed. It also makes him the highest paid non-quarterback in NFL history. This extension will also set the bar for Ja'Marr Chase, who the Bengals are now going to have to make happy. Jefferson will now be locked in through the 2028 season and while he's one of the best receivers in the game, his dynasty value will still be tied to the development of JJ McCarthy. Jefferson remains one of the top two players in dynasty leagues.
Philadelphia Eagles C Jason Kelce and DT Fletcher Cox were placed on the Reserve/Retired list Monday, June 3.
From TheHuddle
Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Evan Engram has quietly been one of the best at his position in fantasy football over the last two seasons, and team reporter John Shipley said he has looked "fantastic" this summer at OTAs. The former first-round pick by the New York Giants in 2017 has found a great home with Jacksonville and catching passes from Trevor Lawrence. Over the last two years, he's hauled in 187 passes for 1,729 yards and eight touchdowns. He trails only Travis Kelce in receptions among tight ends since 2022, and his 114 receptions in 2023 rank second-most in a single season for tight ends all-time. After the departure of Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones, Engram should continue to be heavily targeted in 2024. Despite finishing as the TE2 (PPR) last season, he has an average draft position around the TE7 spot. He could provide immense value at cost.
From RotoBaller
Veteran free-agent safety Tony Jefferson will try out for the Los Angeles Chargers roster during the team's upcoming minicamp, according to NFL insider Jordan Schultz. After nine NFL seasons with the Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, and New York Giants, Jefferson announced his retirement in May of 2023. He announced plans to attempt a comeback in May of 2024, and he'll look to crack L.A.'s roster this offseason. Although Jefferson has never made a Pro Bowl or been named to an All-Pro team, he's been a solid and productive player, racking up 491 tackles, 9.5 sacks, eight forced fumbles, four interceptions, and 24 pass deflections in 113 career games. If he makes the offseason roster, he'll still have an uphill battle to make the 53-man roster. If he does that, he'll likely be utilized as a depth safety and veteran leader for a rebuilding organization.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns wide receiver Elijah Moore played 366 slot snaps (18th-most) in his first season with the organization, but head coach Kevin Stefanski said he is lining up in different spots this offseason. After flashing upside and posting 538 yards and five touchdowns in 11 games as a rookie with the New York Jets, Moore has struggled to enter the fantasy radar over the next two seasons. In his last 33 games with New York and Cleveland, he's hauled in 96 passes for 1,086 yards and just three touchdowns. Amari Cooper should remain the clear No. 1 option in Cleveland's passing attack, and the team added Jerry Jeudy via trade with the Denver Broncos before free agency began. Second-year wideout Cedric Tillman and rookie wideout Jamari Thrash could also compete for snaps, so Moore becoming a more versatile pass-catcher will help his chances of staying on the field. While it's tough to completely give up on Moore in dynasty formats, it would be surprising if he becomes a weekly fantasy contributor in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. was the No. 4 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He's also the son of a Hall of Fame receiver who dominated while catching passes from Peyton Manning in the early 2000s. However, his last name and draft status have not made him complacent, according to head coach Jonathan Gannon. "He's extremely detailed. He does a lot of extra, probably too much," Gannon said. "I love extra work but you gotta be smart...you can't go seven days in a row." While Gannon is correct, Harrison Jr.'s work ethic is a great sign this early in his career. The 2023 Biletnikoff Award winner is expected to be a true No. 1 wide receiver from the jump, and fantasy managers are expecting a WR1 campaign in fantasy football as a rookie. Outside of tight end Trey McBride, his competition for targets is on the weaker side, so he should earn a respectable target share and provide spike weeks in 2024.
From RotoBaller
