Draft Day Winners and Losers
Mon Apr 29 11:53am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
White should be lead back
The draft is always so exciting, seeing where all the players get picked. But after the draft, the big issue is figuring out what it all means for their fantasy value. We thought it would be a good idea to look at some of the biggest fantasy winners and losers from draft day. These are some of the players that were picked but also some of the guys that were already on rosters, seeing their fantasy value get impacted from the draft. Adjust your rankings accordingly!
WINNERS
Bryce Young, QB, Panthers. The Panthers did a great job of getting Young some much needed offensive help. The team took a receiver, running back and tight end in three of the first four rounds of the draft. Carolina already added Diontae Johnson this offseason, so the receiver corps should be much better after getting Xavier Legette in the first round. The receivers got very little separation last year, so it was hard to gauge Young. He needed help and got some this offseason. Carolina also took a possible franchise running back in Jonathon Brooks and hopefully a solid starting tight end in Ja’Tavion Sanders. Things are looking up for Young and this offense.
Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs. Worthy could not have landed in a much better spot. He heads to one of the best offenses in football that has some openings at receiver, especially with the status of Rashee Rice a bit up in the air. Worthy has electric speed and the Chiefs should find plenty of ways to utilize that. He could be the new Tyreek Hill for this offense. Look for Worthy to make an impact right away.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. Maybe one of the biggest surprises of the draft was the Cowboys not addressing their running back spot. Instead, the team signed Elliott after the draft. He is likely to be the starter in this top offense. He might not rack up the yards of past seasons, but has big touchdown potential in this offense. Elliott seems a pretty sure bet to get double-digit touchdowns. He could be a solid No. 2 for fantasy teams.
Jonathon Brooks, RB, Panthers. Brooks is returning from a major knee injury and could be slowed a little early in the season, but once he is back healthy look for him to the three-down back for the Panthers. He lands in a great spot for playing time, having little top talent to compete with for playing time. Brooks could really get the volume in this offense. He is our top rookie fantasy back.
Zamir White, RB, Raiders. Many thought the Raiders were another team that could address their running back spot during the draft, but that didn’t happen. They used a sixth-round pick on Dylan Laube, but he is not expected to challenge White for that starter’s job. It sure seems the Raiders are comfortable with White as their lead back. He has a chance to get a lot of touches in year two. His stock is going up.
Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers. The Chargers need help at receiver and McConkey helps fill that need. It would not surprise if he quickly became Justin Herbert’s favorite target in the passing game. We really like his chances to rack up the weekly looks in this offense. Someone has to fill the Keenan Allen void and McConkey seems the best bet out of the options at receiver for the Chargers.
Keon Coleman, WR, Bills. Coleman is another rookie receiver that lands in a great spot for playing time. The departure of Stefon Diggs leaves a big opening for the Bills. Coleman could help fill that void. He has great size for the position and could be a top red-zone threat from day one for Buffalo. Coleman should get his chances from the get go, giving him a high ceiling for the coming year.
LOSERS
Raheem Mostert, RB, Dolphins. Mostert had a monster season last year and helped many fantasy teams to championships. He is going to have a very hard time repeating, especially after the Dolphins picked Jaylen Wright in the fourth round. Wright is a speed back similar to Mostert but a lot younger with less wear on his tires. Remember, Mostert is 32 years old. He might end up falling to third on the depth chart after the addition of Wright.
Rome Odunze, WR, Bears. Odunze is a super talented player that could be a star in the NFL. But for his year, you have to worry about him being up and down. He has two really good receivers ahead of him on the depth chart in DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. This is going to limit the ceiling of Odunze. He will be a much better fantasy player in a few more seasons. For now, expect erratic production from the talented rookie.
Kyren Williams, RB, Rams. Williams remains the lead back for the Rams and is coming off a breakout season. But the Rams picked Blake Corum in the third round. He is going to be a factor in the offense. He might get put a huge dent in Williams’ workload but the big concern is the goal-line work. Corum is more of a between the tackles runner that does well on short-yardage work. He could end up stealing some touchdowns from Williams, hurting his fantasy value.
Michael Mayer, TE, Raiders. Mayer was a second-round pick for the Raiders last year and showed well at times his rookie season. The Raiders couldn’t pass on the talented Brock Browers in this year’s draft, though. This move absolutely kills the fantasy value of Mayer. He is going to play second fiddle to Browers, getting few weekly looks. Browers is the clear tight end to own in this offense.
Ricky Pearsall, WR, 49ers. Pearsall is a talented pass catcher that can get in and out of his breaks in a hurry. He is a really good fit for the slot and could fill that role for the 49ers his rookie season. The problem is he has some of the top talent in all of football to compete with for targets. He could really be up and down his rookie season. He will look better in a year or two when he has a more defined role and less to compete with at receiver. His rookie season could be a tough one to gauge for fantasy owners.
Malik Nabers, WR, Giants. Many considered Nabers the top receiver in this year’s draft. He is super talented with a high fantasy ceiling. The problem for Nabers is he got drafted by the Giants, a team that really struggled offensively last year. Plus, he has Daniel Jones throwing him passes. This is not a great landing spot for the talented Nabers. Jones needs to make some big strides this season if Nabers hopes to reach his potential. We aren’t sure that happens.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Baltimore Ravens tight end Charlie Kolar added some bulk to his frame this offseason, and head coach John Harbaugh said this offseason that he'd like to see Kolar continue to become a more developed blocker. Kolar looks ready to take on that role, which is extremely important for an offense that relies so much on punishing opposing defenses on the ground. The 25-year-old tight end showed progress in his second year in the NFL in 2023, but that still amounted to only seven receptions for 87 yards and a touchdown on nine targets, even with top tight end Mark Andrews missing time with a leg injury. Behind both Andrews and Isiah Likely and because he's primarily a blocking-first tight end, Kolar should remain well off the fantasy radar in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry will be involved in the team's passing game in his first year with the team in 2024. Henry caught a couple passes out of the backfield from quarterback Lamar Jackson during organized team activities this week, and he did more pass-catching in the last couple years with the Tennessee Titans, catching 33 passes for 398 yards in 2022 and 28 passes for 214 yards last year. He had never reached 20 receptions in a season before that in his career. Despite all the tread on Henry's tires at this point in his career, it sounds as though the Ravens aren't putting a cap on his workload in 2024 as they try to get over the hump to reach the Super Bowl. Henry will start to become more of an injury risk at the 30-year-old mark, but you can't ignore the fact he's led the league in rushing in four of the last five seasons. As long as his workload remains hefty, Henry will be an RB1 in fantasy.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets rookie offensive tackle Olu Fashanu (quadriceps) was a full participant at organized team activities earlier this week. Fashanu has been recovering from a strained quadriceps muscle that he suffered while running the 40-yard dash at the NFL scouting combine in February but appears to be fine now and should be ready for training camp, the preseason and the start of his rookie season in 2024. The Jets selected the 21-year-old with the 11th overall pick in last month's NFL draft, so Fashanu will most likely become a starter for the Jets sooner than later in 2024. The move to bolster the team's offensive line early in the draft made sense, considering the Jets need to do a better job of protecting veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers so that he can stay healthy for a full season.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers cornerback Cory Trice (knee) said this week's organized team activities felt like the "first day of school" after he missed all of the 2023 season while rehabbing a torn ACL in his knee. Trice is still wearing a brace on his surgically repaired knee, but he said he'll be fully cleared for training camp this summer. The 23-year-old wasn't able to get on the field at all in his first year in the NFL after the Steelers took him in the seventh round out of Purdue in 2023. During training camp and the preseason this summer, Trice will be mostly likely competing for a backup role behind Donte Jackson and rookie Ryan Watts, and he won't be guaranteed a roster spot heading into Week 1 this fall.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (wrist) hasn't faced any limits regarding his activity level during voluntary OTAs. "We designed the whole thing to stay within the constraints of where the medical people think he should be and where he wants to be right now," said offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher. "Nobody is sitting there with a special pitch counter. But we've been smart how we put it together." It's undoubtedly a positive update on the signal-caller, who suffered a season-ending torn ligament in his right wrist during a meeting with the Ravens in mid-November, and it appears he's well on his way to being ready for Week 1. While Burrow has all the tools needed to be a top fantasy quarterback, his health will be on the mind of all fantasy managers. With that said, the Bengals have a favorable schedule in 2024-25, meaning the 27-year-old could thrive as long as he stays on the field.
From RotoBaller
According to Houston Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans, running back Dameon Pierce will have a role this season. While Joe Mixon is believed to be the No. 1 option on the depth chart, it appears Pierce could have a bigger function than anticipated. "I see Dameon having a very clear headspace as we are out working, and I think that will allow him to have a really productive year this year, " said Ryans during an interview with the Houston Chronicle. "He has everything it takes to be a really good running back for us, and I think him and Joe as a one-two punch would be very beneficial for us all." Of course, it remains to be seen how things will work out for the revamped Texans' offense. However, it seems Mixon and Pierce could collectively remain productive enough to exceed expectations during the 2024-25 campaign, although it will be tough to tell which player will be the most productive from week to week.
From RotoBaller
According to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is reportedly looking for a new contract similar to what Amon-Ra St. Brown got from the Lions. The wideout is slotted to make just over $14 million on his fifth-year option. However, if Aiyuk gets his wish, he could double that amount. Of course, St. Brown has been more productive, so it will be tough to justify making Aiyuk one of the highest-paid receivers in the National Football League. But the 26-year-old is coming off the best season of his career, amassing 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns off 75 catches, meaning someone would be more than happy to pay him if the 49ers decide to move on from this situation.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. is likely headed for the No. 3 role in the backfield behind Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler after the team passed on selecting another RB in this year's NFL draft. Rodriguez is the clear early-down backup to Robinson, whether that means five to 10 touches from scrimmage per game or a lower figure. However, he could have a bigger role on special teams if the Commanders view him as part of what looks like a trend of teams seeking bigger-bodied kick returners given the new league rules on kickoffs. The 23-year-old doesn't have a path to any kind of real fantasy value in 2024 unless one of Robinson or Ekeler go down with an injury. In his rookie campaign in 2023, Rodriguez had 51 carries for 247 yards and two touchdowns while catching two passes for 12 yards in 13 regular-season games.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders wide receiver Dyami Brown's stock is down this offseason after the team added Olamide Zaccheaus in free agency and drafted Luke McCaffrey in the third round. Brown, a third-round pick in 2021, has just 29 receptions in his three NFL seasons, and two of his three career touchdowns came in one game. He offers a different player profile than both Zaccheaus and McCaffrey, but Washington's previous staff made Brown available at last year's trade deadline, according to league sources. Another challenge for Brown will be the fact that the Commanders love to use 12 personnel, which means two tight ends on the field at the expense of a receiver. The presence of pass-catching running back Austin Ekeler also likely cuts down the available snaps for Brown in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski said that kicker Dustin Hopkins (hamstring) has recovered from the torn hamstring that he suffered on Christmas Eve last year against the Houston Texans that sidelined him for the rest of the season and the playoff loss. Despite being recovered from the injury, Hopkins was a notable absence during organized team activities this week. The Browns also have kickers Cade York and Lucas Havrisik on the current roster, but barring injury, the 33-year-old Hopkins figures to be the team's starting kicker in Week 1 of the 2024 regular season. Despite missing the final two games of the regular season last year, Hopkins finished as the No. 12 fantasy kicker by making 33 of his 36 field goal-attempts and 24 of his 26 extra-point tries. He'll be a fringe fantasy kicker in drafts this fall.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys defensive tackle Mazi Smith (shoulder) is still working his way back from a shoulder problem that bothered him during his rookie season which forced him to have surgery at the beginning of the offseason. "He's still in the rehab group," McCarthy said. "Working primarily with our rehab guys. He's still in our meetings and everything else." The 22-year-old former 26th overall pick last year out of Michigan played in all 17 regular-season games (three starts) in his first NFL season in 2023 and finished with just 13 tackles (nine solo), one sack, three tackles for loss and three QB hits. The hope is that Smith is much more effective in his sophomore campaign after getting his shoulder fixed. The Cowboys hope that he'll be a force on the interior of their defensive line in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb's absence at voluntary organized team activities this offseason has opened up opportunities for the team's young receivers such as Jalen Tolbert, a third-round pick in 2022. Tolbert has the chance to take the No. 3 role behind Lamb and Brandin Cooks this year after the Cowboys released Michael Gallup in the offseason and didn't address the position with a known commodity in free agency or early in the draft. The 25-year-old had only 22 catches for 268 yards and two touchdowns last year, but he showed improvement from his rookie season in which he caught just two passes for 12 yards and was inactive for nine games. Tolbert is heading into the 2024 season with more confidence and more trust from quarterback Dak Prescott, which could make him a sleeper to target late in deeper fantasy leagues.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Dee Eskridge will likely get one more season to prove himself in the NFL after being a second-round pick in 2021, and new head coach Mike MacDonald's coaching staff has decided to give him a shot as a kick returner in 2024. In addition to Eskridge, free-agent pickup Laviska Shenault Jr. is also getting reps as a returner in organized team activities. The 27-year-old Eskridge finished off the 2023 campaign on Injured Reserve with a rib injury, but he appears to be fully healthy now and ready to go for the 2024 regular season. He didn't have a single catch while playing in just four games in 2023 and has only 17 receptions on 34 targets for 122 yards and one touchdown in his three years in the NFL. Eskridge remains well off the fantasy radar.
From RotoBaller
The New England Patriots signed fourth-round rookie wide receiver Javon Baker to his rookie contract on Friday, according to ESPN's Mike Reiss. Baker, the 110th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft was rumored to potentially come off the board on Day 2, but New England, a team that needed pass-catching help, stopped his fall. Baker earned first-team All-Big-12 honors in his final season at UCF after hauling in 52 passes for 1,139 yards and seven touchdowns. The Patriots have a wide-open wide receiver depth chart consisting of Kendrick Bourne, K.J. Osborn, Demario Douglas, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton, and second-round rookie Ja'Lynn Polk. It's difficult to predict who will start in three-wide sets in 2024, but the passing offense will likely offer limited fantasy upside under rookie quarterback Drake Maye when he takes over for Jacoby Brissett.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Caleb Williams is reportedly struggling to pick up the Chicago offense. Dynasty Analysis: In what amounts to be nothing more than an overreaction news piece, it seems Williams is reportedly being thrown into the fire early in Chicago and struggling against the Bears first-string defense. Dynasty managers should keep in mind we're not even into June, so this is nothing more than a rookie getting his feet wet in the NFL. Williams remains the favorite to be the 1.01 in Superflex drafts this off-season.
The Athletic's Mark Kaboly writes that the No. 2 wide receiver spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers is currently wide open. Quez Watkins, Calvin Austin III, Marquez Callaway and Van Jefferson could all be competing for the job this summer at training camp if the team doesn't add a legitimate No. 2 receiver via trade before then. Austin could be the most consistent of the group, but rookie Roman Wilson also can't be counted out for now because of his quickness. George Pickens is the team's unquestioned top wideout this year after the Steelers traded Diontae Johnson to the Carolina Panthers this offseason. Because of the lack of clarity beyond Pickens right now, tight end Pat Freiermuth, who has already developed notable chemistry with new quarterback Russell Wilson, could be one to watch for a breakout season.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson has looked on point during organized team activities this week with his new team, and the 35-year-old still appears to have plenty of arm strength. Wilson's accuracy was spot on this week, whether in warmups, drills or competition periods, including a 70-yard pass in stride to receiver Quez Watkins on Thursday. His ability to sell play-action fakes was also noticeably better than the other QBs this week. Wilson is in pole position to open the 2024 season as Pittsburgh's starter under center for Week 1, but Justin Fields, a former first-rounder, is competing to make starts for the Steelers at some point in 2024 as well in what is a contract year for him. Fields' presence and dual-threat abilities will be a threat to Wilson's value as a QB2 in fantasy in his first year in the Steel City.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth has been one of new quarterback Russell Wilson's favorite targets during organized team activities this week. The Athletic's Mark Kaboly writes that it's hard not to notice the connection the two have already built. The two had a throwing session in San Diego earlier in the spring, which might have helped. Wilson seems to have the most trust in Freiermuth right now, and the big tight end is fully healthy and is entering a contract year in 2024. Having a more accurate QB and an offensive coordinator in Arthur Smith who will highlight the tight end position could be the factors that lead to the 25-year-old having a breakout year. A hamstring injury cost Freiermuth five games in 2023, and he caught just 32 passes for a career-low 308 yards and two touchdowns in 12 regular-season games (nine starts) in 2023. With better health, he's a value pick at TE to consider in fantasy this fall.
From RotoBaller
As he competes with both rookie first-round quarterback Bo Nix and former first-rounder Zach Wilson in offseason workouts, Denver Broncos QB Jarrett Stidham said he's much more comfortable running the offense in his second year with the team. Stidham was with head coach Sean Payton a year ago and will have an advantage over both Nix and Wilson in that area. His four career starts in the NFL have come in the last two seasons with the Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders. "I'm not out there thinking as much, I'm just out there playing free and playing more confident, which is great. It's been good," Stidham said. It remains to be seen who will emerge as the team's Week 1 starter after training camp and the preseason, but if it's Stidham, he'll probably be no more than a low-end QB2 in fantasy. Even if Stidham wins the job to begin the year, it would be a surprise if Nix doesn't make starts at some point in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, the No. 1 overall pick in this year's NFL draft out of USC, has looked like a rookie in the early going at organized team activities this week. The Bears are hoping that their strong defense will prepare the rookie QB and help him improve by the time he's facing other teams in games that matter. The Bears are installing a new offense under coordinator Shane Waldron and have a rookie signal-caller learning the speed and intricacies at the next level, so it's not exactly a surprise that he's struggling early on. Williams also hasn't had first-rounder Rome Odunze or Keenan Allen to throw to. Odunze is sitting out with a minor injury. Fantasy managers shouldn't read too much into Williams' early struggles against a strong defense in voluntary offseason workouts, but it's certainly worth noting.
From RotoBaller
