Draft Day Winners and Losers
Mon Apr 29 11:53am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
White should be lead back
The draft is always so exciting, seeing where all the players get picked. But after the draft, the big issue is figuring out what it all means for their fantasy value. We thought it would be a good idea to look at some of the biggest fantasy winners and losers from draft day. These are some of the players that were picked but also some of the guys that were already on rosters, seeing their fantasy value get impacted from the draft. Adjust your rankings accordingly!
WINNERS
Bryce Young, QB, Panthers. The Panthers did a great job of getting Young some much needed offensive help. The team took a receiver, running back and tight end in three of the first four rounds of the draft. Carolina already added Diontae Johnson this offseason, so the receiver corps should be much better after getting Xavier Legette in the first round. The receivers got very little separation last year, so it was hard to gauge Young. He needed help and got some this offseason. Carolina also took a possible franchise running back in Jonathon Brooks and hopefully a solid starting tight end in Ja’Tavion Sanders. Things are looking up for Young and this offense.
Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs. Worthy could not have landed in a much better spot. He heads to one of the best offenses in football that has some openings at receiver, especially with the status of Rashee Rice a bit up in the air. Worthy has electric speed and the Chiefs should find plenty of ways to utilize that. He could be the new Tyreek Hill for this offense. Look for Worthy to make an impact right away.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. Maybe one of the biggest surprises of the draft was the Cowboys not addressing their running back spot. Instead, the team signed Elliott after the draft. He is likely to be the starter in this top offense. He might not rack up the yards of past seasons, but has big touchdown potential in this offense. Elliott seems a pretty sure bet to get double-digit touchdowns. He could be a solid No. 2 for fantasy teams.
Jonathon Brooks, RB, Panthers. Brooks is returning from a major knee injury and could be slowed a little early in the season, but once he is back healthy look for him to the three-down back for the Panthers. He lands in a great spot for playing time, having little top talent to compete with for playing time. Brooks could really get the volume in this offense. He is our top rookie fantasy back.
Zamir White, RB, Raiders. Many thought the Raiders were another team that could address their running back spot during the draft, but that didn’t happen. They used a sixth-round pick on Dylan Laube, but he is not expected to challenge White for that starter’s job. It sure seems the Raiders are comfortable with White as their lead back. He has a chance to get a lot of touches in year two. His stock is going up.
Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers. The Chargers need help at receiver and McConkey helps fill that need. It would not surprise if he quickly became Justin Herbert’s favorite target in the passing game. We really like his chances to rack up the weekly looks in this offense. Someone has to fill the Keenan Allen void and McConkey seems the best bet out of the options at receiver for the Chargers.
Keon Coleman, WR, Bills. Coleman is another rookie receiver that lands in a great spot for playing time. The departure of Stefon Diggs leaves a big opening for the Bills. Coleman could help fill that void. He has great size for the position and could be a top red-zone threat from day one for Buffalo. Coleman should get his chances from the get go, giving him a high ceiling for the coming year.
LOSERS
Raheem Mostert, RB, Dolphins. Mostert had a monster season last year and helped many fantasy teams to championships. He is going to have a very hard time repeating, especially after the Dolphins picked Jaylen Wright in the fourth round. Wright is a speed back similar to Mostert but a lot younger with less wear on his tires. Remember, Mostert is 32 years old. He might end up falling to third on the depth chart after the addition of Wright.
Rome Odunze, WR, Bears. Odunze is a super talented player that could be a star in the NFL. But for his year, you have to worry about him being up and down. He has two really good receivers ahead of him on the depth chart in DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. This is going to limit the ceiling of Odunze. He will be a much better fantasy player in a few more seasons. For now, expect erratic production from the talented rookie.
Kyren Williams, RB, Rams. Williams remains the lead back for the Rams and is coming off a breakout season. But the Rams picked Blake Corum in the third round. He is going to be a factor in the offense. He might get put a huge dent in Williams’ workload but the big concern is the goal-line work. Corum is more of a between the tackles runner that does well on short-yardage work. He could end up stealing some touchdowns from Williams, hurting his fantasy value.
Michael Mayer, TE, Raiders. Mayer was a second-round pick for the Raiders last year and showed well at times his rookie season. The Raiders couldn’t pass on the talented Brock Browers in this year’s draft, though. This move absolutely kills the fantasy value of Mayer. He is going to play second fiddle to Browers, getting few weekly looks. Browers is the clear tight end to own in this offense.
Ricky Pearsall, WR, 49ers. Pearsall is a talented pass catcher that can get in and out of his breaks in a hurry. He is a really good fit for the slot and could fill that role for the 49ers his rookie season. The problem is he has some of the top talent in all of football to compete with for targets. He could really be up and down his rookie season. He will look better in a year or two when he has a more defined role and less to compete with at receiver. His rookie season could be a tough one to gauge for fantasy owners.
Malik Nabers, WR, Giants. Many considered Nabers the top receiver in this year’s draft. He is super talented with a high fantasy ceiling. The problem for Nabers is he got drafted by the Giants, a team that really struggled offensively last year. Plus, he has Daniel Jones throwing him passes. This is not a great landing spot for the talented Nabers. Jones needs to make some big strides this season if Nabers hopes to reach his potential. We aren’t sure that happens.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Dynasty | Giants tight end Darren Waller is expected to soon announce his retirement. Dynasty Analysis: Nothing is official as of yet but it certainly sounds like an announcement is imminent. The longer this mystery lasted, the more likely this was going to be the outcome. Waller has battled myriad injuries over the past few years and was only able to post a 52/552/1 season last year, his first (and likely only) with the Giants. Now 31, Waller's career will be remembered for two back-to-back monster seasons with little at the beginning or the end. Dynasty managers hoping for a late career resurgence will likely need to look elsewhere here soon.
Dynasty | The Minnesota Vikings and wide receiver Justin Jefferson have reached an agreement on a new contract extension. Dynasty Analysis: It's a four-year, $140 million contract extension that includes $110 million guaranteed. It also makes him the highest paid non-quarterback in NFL history. This extension will also set the bar for Ja'Marr Chase, who the Bengals are now going to have to make happy. Jefferson will now be locked in through the 2028 season and while he's one of the best receivers in the game, his dynasty value will still be tied to the development of JJ McCarthy. Jefferson remains one of the top two players in dynasty leagues.
Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Evan Engram has quietly been one of the best at his position in fantasy football over the last two seasons, and team reporter John Shipley said he has looked "fantastic" this summer at OTAs. The former first-round pick by the New York Giants in 2017 has found a great home with Jacksonville and catching passes from Trevor Lawrence. Over the last two years, he's hauled in 187 passes for 1,729 yards and eight touchdowns. He trails only Travis Kelce in receptions among tight ends since 2022, and his 114 receptions in 2023 rank second-most in a single season for tight ends all-time. After the departure of Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones, Engram should continue to be heavily targeted in 2024. Despite finishing as the TE2 (PPR) last season, he has an average draft position around the TE7 spot. He could provide immense value at cost.
From RotoBaller
Veteran free-agent safety Tony Jefferson will try out for the Los Angeles Chargers roster during the team's upcoming minicamp, according to NFL insider Jordan Schultz. After nine NFL seasons with the Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, and New York Giants, Jefferson announced his retirement in May of 2023. He announced plans to attempt a comeback in May of 2024, and he'll look to crack L.A.'s roster this offseason. Although Jefferson has never made a Pro Bowl or been named to an All-Pro team, he's been a solid and productive player, racking up 491 tackles, 9.5 sacks, eight forced fumbles, four interceptions, and 24 pass deflections in 113 career games. If he makes the offseason roster, he'll still have an uphill battle to make the 53-man roster. If he does that, he'll likely be utilized as a depth safety and veteran leader for a rebuilding organization.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns wide receiver Elijah Moore played 366 slot snaps (18th-most) in his first season with the organization, but head coach Kevin Stefanski said he is lining up in different spots this offseason. After flashing upside and posting 538 yards and five touchdowns in 11 games as a rookie with the New York Jets, Moore has struggled to enter the fantasy radar over the next two seasons. In his last 33 games with New York and Cleveland, he's hauled in 96 passes for 1,086 yards and just three touchdowns. Amari Cooper should remain the clear No. 1 option in Cleveland's passing attack, and the team added Jerry Jeudy via trade with the Denver Broncos before free agency began. Second-year wideout Cedric Tillman and rookie wideout Jamari Thrash could also compete for snaps, so Moore becoming a more versatile pass-catcher will help his chances of staying on the field. While it's tough to completely give up on Moore in dynasty formats, it would be surprising if he becomes a weekly fantasy contributor in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. was the No. 4 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He's also the son of a Hall of Fame receiver who dominated while catching passes from Peyton Manning in the early 2000s. However, his last name and draft status have not made him complacent, according to head coach Jonathan Gannon. "He's extremely detailed. He does a lot of extra, probably too much," Gannon said. "I love extra work but you gotta be smart...you can't go seven days in a row." While Gannon is correct, Harrison Jr.'s work ethic is a great sign this early in his career. The 2023 Biletnikoff Award winner is expected to be a true No. 1 wide receiver from the jump, and fantasy managers are expecting a WR1 campaign in fantasy football as a rookie. Outside of tight end Trey McBride, his competition for targets is on the weaker side, so he should earn a respectable target share and provide spike weeks in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver David White Jr. (knee) suffered a torn ACL last week, according to head coach Doug Pederson. It's a tough blow for an undrafted rookie trying to make an impact. White spent the last two years at Western Carolina University and caught 54 passes for 903 yards and 11 touchdowns. He was already a longshot to make the 53-man roster, and now he's even more unlikely to play a snap in 2024.
From RotoBaller
On the Pat McAfee Show on Monday, Indianapolis Colts second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson (shoulder) said he's almost fully recovered from season-ending surgery on his right shoulder last year. "I'm at about 95% right now and it took me about four months to start throwing again," Richardson said. It took Richardson around four months before he could resume throwing and he's been taking part in organized team activities this offseason as he heads into his second year in the NFL. The 22-year-old former first-rounder isn't planning on changing the way he plays to avoid injuries as a runner and he says he's a lot more comfortable in head coach Shane Steichen's offense. Richardson has more injury risk than most QBs because of his propensity to take off and run with the football, but he also has high-end QB1 upside despite playing in only four games in 2023 before getting hurt.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence said he would love to have a contract extension in place before training camp begins at the end of July, but it's not going to be an issue for him if he doesn't get it. Lawrence's representatives and the Jaguars have been working on an extension for months, and the deal is expected to make him one of the highest-paid QBs in the NFL in terms of average annual salary. He's entering the final season of a fully-guaranteed, four-year deal worth $36,793,592 that he signed after being taken first overall in the 2021 draft. Lawrence's fifth-year option was picked up, which fully guarantees him $25.664 million in 2025. The 24-year-old said he's more concerned with continuing to develop in his third season in head coach Doug Pederson's offense than with his extension. With better health in 2024, Lawrence could easily take another step forward.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts former third-round tight end Jelani Woods is entering a pivotal season early in his career, and his blend of size, speed and open-field ability could give the Colts offense the kind of downfield weapon that is tough to find at the position. Injuries have limited Woods early in his career. He played in 15 games (two starts) in his rookie year in 2022 and had 25 catches for 312 yards and three touchdowns, but he didn't play at all in 2023 due to injuries to both of his hamstrings. The 25-year-old changed his training regimen to specifically strengthen his legs this offseason and feels much better. Head coach Shane Steichen said Woods has "been making a ton of plays" at OTAs this offseason. The Colts have a crowded TE room with Woods, Kylen Granson, Mo Alie-Cox, Drew Ogletree and Will Mallory, but if he stays healthy, Woods has the upside to be the Colts' top pass-catching TE.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (ankle) is taking part in organized team activities on Monday. It's great to see that Robinson is already recovered from a minor ankle injury that he suffered during OTAs in May. After being taken with the eighth overall pick in the first round in last year's draft out of Texas, Robinson carried the ball 214 times for 976 yards (4.6 yards per carry) and four touchdowns, adding 58 receptions on 86 targets for 487 yards and four touchdowns through the air in 17 games in his first year in the league. Tyler Allgeier remains in Atlanta's backfield, but the 22-year-old Robinson is the clear lead back and should be able to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards in his sophomore campaign if he stays healthy in 2024, especially with veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins taking over an offense that should look to prioritize getting the ball in the hands of its best playmakers more often.
From RotoBaller
According to sources, contract talks between the Dallas Cowboys and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb are expected to "speed up" beyond its previous pace since "there's at least a number" with the announcement of Minnesota Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson's record-setting, non-quarterback contract extension on Monday. Jefferson inked a four-year, $140 million extension with the Vikes. Lamb hasn't been in attendance at any of the team's voluntary organized team activities this offseason as he seeks a new contract, which he should get before the start of the 2024 regular season. The 25-year-old led the NFL with 135 receptions last year and went for 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns, making him an elite, high-end WR1 target for fantasy managers this fall.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said that wide receiver Gabe Davis (knee) should be cleared for training camp this summer. The same can be said for defensive lineman Arik Armstead (knee), who is also recovering from a knee injury this offseason. Davis signed a three-year, $39 million deal with the Jaguars in March after spending the first four years of his career with the Buffalo Bills. The 25-year-old deep threat had at least six touchdowns in all four of his seasons in the league, but he's been extremely inconsistent and finished 2023 with 45 catches for 746 yards in 17 regular-season games. Davis will be locked in as a starter in a very capable Jacksonville offense, but he'll be competing for targets with Christian Kirk, first-rounder Brian Thomas and tight end Evan Engram and will likely continue to be a boom-or-bust fantasy asset at wide receiver.
From RotoBaller
All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson has agreed to a four-year, $140 million contract extension to remain with the Minnesota Vikings, according to NFL insider Tom Pelissero. The deal makes him the highest-paid non-quarterback in the NFL and includes $110 million in guaranteed money. The No. 22 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft is arguably one of the best players in the league, regardless of position, and he has posted 392 receptions for 5,899 yards and 30 touchdowns through his first 60 games. At just 24 years old, he has been named to three Pro Bowls and three All-Pro squads. He also won the 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award after posting 1,809 receiving yards. Jefferson is well on pace to become a future Hall of Famer, so hopefully, he can stay healthy after missing seven games last year. Although he's set to play with Sam Darnold and rookie J.J. McCarthy at quarterback in 2024, he should remain at least a mid-range WR1 in fantasy football.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants tight end Darren Waller is expected to make a decision on his 2024 playing status by next week's mini-camp, and people in and around the organization expect he will announce his retirement, according to Jordan Raanan of ESPN. Waller has had a tough time staying healthy lately, as he's missed 19 games over the last three years with lingering lower-body injuries. The 31-year-old posted consecutive 1,000-yard seasons with the Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders in 2019 and 2020, but he hasn't reached 700 yards since. If Waller decides to call it a career, target competition for No. 6 overall pick Malik Nabers will be even further reduced. Meanwhile, Daniel Bellinger and rookie Theo Johnson will likely compete for TE1 duties. Either player will have limited upside in Daniel Jones' offense. Whether Waller continues to play or not, his career exceeded expectations considering he was a converted wide receiver and had fewer than 200 receiving yards to his name in the three years before his 2019 breakout season.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers has thrown at least 25 touchdowns in each of the 13 seasons that he has played at least 10 games, but only four quarterbacks in NFL history have thrown 25 or more touchdowns in a season after failing to complete a pass in the previous season.
Fantasy Spin: After his first season with the Jets ended almost as soon as it began, Rodgers will return to an improved offensive line and supporting cast. At his age, a return to MVP form seems unlikely, but Rodgers should still be a high-end QB2.
From TheHuddle
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Howell is expected to begin the season behind Geno Smith. However, it appears the former Commander isn't a lock to be the No. 2 signal-caller on the depth chart. "Not much," he said when responding to a question about what he knows about his role heading into the 2023-24 campaign. "They just tell me to keep working and just keep trying to get better every single day, and I'm taking it one day at a time, and I really don't worry too much about the future or what plans they might have for me just because nobody really knows." Howell finished last season by throwing for 3,946 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions. He also completed 63.4% of his throws and added five rushing touchdowns. As such, the 23-year-old could get a chance under center in Seattle if Smith struggles at any point during the season, assuming he doesn't win the starting job during training camp. As a result, dynasty managers playing in multi-quarterback setups and have room to spare should keep Howell on the roster, at least for now.
From RotoBaller
The Washington Commanders released kicker Brandon McManus on Sunday night. The veteran was recently accused of sexual assault in a lawsuit stemming from several alleged incidents that occurred during an overseas flight last season while he was with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Since then, McManus signed a one-year deal with the Commanders in March. However, he'll now be looking for work, although teams will unlikely consider signing him anytime soon.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders PK Brandon McManus was released on Sunday, June 2. The move comes in the wake of sexual assault allegations against the kicker.
From TheHuddle
Arizona Cardinals veteran running back and team captain James Conner is heading into his eighth NFL season in 2024 and his fourth with the Cardinals. He's coming off his first 1,000-yard season as a professional and said he wouldn't mind finishing his NFL career in the desert. Conner has grown close to quarterback Kyler Murray, spending time together on numerous outings. The 29-year-old veteran is entering the last year of the three-year deal he signed in 2022, which has ended up being a bargain for the Cardinals. "It would be awesome to finish my career here, but nothing changes," Conner said. Rookie third-rounder Trey Benson could eventually take over Conner's spot as the team's lead back, but as far as 2024 in concerned, Conner should remain the team's lead back in what should be an improved offense.
From RotoBaller
