Lineup Prep: Super Bowl
Wed Feb 7 8:43am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Pacheco is playing at high level
Not sure about you, but there is not a better weekend in sports than Super Bowl weekend. It is as good as it gets. Just everything involved with it is so much fun. I am so looking forward to it all this weekend. Let’s hope it is a good game and lives up to the hype. Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
I will give you my pick for the game right off the bat. I think it will be a close game, but look for the Chiefs to squeak it out. I think the experience factor plays a difference here in the end, especially when it comes to the quarterback position. Patrick Mahomes has been outstanding during the playoffs and think he has a huge advantage over Brock Purdy. Plus, the Chiefs defense has been outstanding lately, completely shutting down the opponent. I don’t see them shutting down the 49ers high-powered offense, but think they will cause Purdy problems. I’m going with a Chiefs 31-27 victory.
If you still don’t have any fantasy teams alive in the playoffs, consider playing our fun pickem contests. We have tons of options available to play with for the Super Bowl. I wanted to give you a few of my favorite pickem plays for the big game. Give me Travis Kelce more than 70.5-receiving yards. Kelce has 71-plus yards all three of his playoff games and is coming off arguably his best game of the season. And the 49ers struggled to stop the tight end last week, seeing Sam LaPorta rack up the receptions and yards. I also like Brandon Aiyuk less than 61.5-receiving yards. Aiyuk has failed to hit that mark two of three games and has just three catches each of his last three games. Lastly, I like Deebo Samuel more than 79.5-rushing and receiving yards. Samuel had 11 touches his last game and was a huge part of the offense. I look for the 49ers to get him involved early and often, giving him good potential to rack up some total yards.
I’m not sure how I feel about the Commanders hiring of Kliff Kingsbury. His offenses were fine in Arizona, but not as explosive as many thought and he struggled some using Caleb Williams last year at USC. I think the Commanders would have been better served keeping Eric Bieniemy as their offensive coordinator. I thought he did a great job with the offense last year in Washington all things considered. I’m not convinced Kingsbury is going to be an upgrade.
On a different subject, can we stop teasing and showing parts of the Super Bowl commercials before the game? I mean part of the fun of the game is the commercials. They are always entertaining and a part of the event. But now, you see parts of the commercials before the game, ruining the surprise. C’mon people. Let’s stop this tradition right now.
We had our first TFC draft of the 2024 season last night. And in a surprise move, the first pick of the draft was Breece Hall. And we also saw Sam LaPorta get picked before Travis Kelce. It is always interesting to see how these early drafts shake out. A lot is going to change between now and the start of next season, but trends are starting now. In this draft, four running backs were picked in the first round compared to eight receivers. And the quarterback position looks as deep as ever with guys like Jordan Love getting picked in Round 11. Brock Purdy and Kirk Cousins also went very late.
News and Notes: The Chargers hired Greg Roman as their new offensive coordinator. Roman tends to be more run heavy when it comes to play calling. . . . .Former Texans and Patriots running back Rex Burkhead announced his retirement from the NFL on Tuesday.
HOT PLAYS
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs. Pacheco has taken his game to new heights during the Chiefs playoff run. He has at least 15 fantasy points four straight games and found the end zone seven consecutive games. He even has 20-plus carries two of three games, getting a big workload in the Chiefs offense. Expect more of the same this week from Pacheco. The 49ers allowed 182-rushing yards to the Lions their last game and allowed 135-plus rushing yards each of their two playoff games.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce has looked like a different player during these playoffs than the regular season. He had 11 receptions his last game and at least five catches all three playoff games. He has 14-plus fantasy points all three games. He has really elevated his game after a ho-hum second half of the season. Look for him to be the focal point of the Chiefs passing game once again this week. And San Francisco couldn’t contain Sam LaPorta in the Championship game, allowing him to get nine receptions for 97 yards. The Packers tight ends had six receptions and a touchdown in the 49ers other playoff game.
COLD PLAYS
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. Aiyuk did score a touchdown his last game, which was a big positive, but he had just three receptions. He has just three cathodes three straight games. He has were than 40 yards two of three. And with the Chiefs secondary clamping down on receivers right not, it could be more of the same for Aiyuk this week. He could be held in check once again.
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Chiefs. McKinnon is expected to make his long-awaited return this week, returning from a groin injury. He has not played since Week 15. Just remember he has not reached double-digit touches in a single game this year. Pacheco is the lead back in this offense and will get most of the work at running back. McKinnon played great during the Chiefs playoff run last season, but this is a new year. Plus, McKinnon has not played in several weeks, so you have to wonder how much he is even on the field. He will be a big risk to use for fantasy owners.
SLEEPERS
Jauan Jennings, WR, 49ers. There are always surprise players in the Super Bowl, so why not Jennings. He could draw the most favorable matchups in coverage for the 49ers receiver options. And he has looked good in the playoffs, having six receptions for 69 yards in two games. He played 42 percent of the snaps last week - even with Deebo Samuel back in the lineup. Jennings might get a big play or two in this one, making him an intriguing fantasy play.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Chiefs. Valdes-Scantling had the game-clinching reception in the Championship game, making a sliding catch on third down to clinch the game. He finished with two receptions for 38 yards. But he played a season-high 83 percent of the snaps in that game, which is encouraging. If he is on the field that much again this week, his reception and yardage totals could rise in what might be a high-scoring game.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Chiefs/49ers.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
- Kirk Cousins takes field with Falcons, moving past injury, draft shocker
- Jason Kelce joins ESPN's 'Monday Night Countdown' crew
- Browns S Rodney McLeod to retire after 2024 season
- Commanders release QB Jake Fromm
- Bills, Dolphins to meet in first 2024 Amazon Prime Video game
- 49ers sign OT Chris Hubbard
- Bills sign WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling to 1-year contract
- Oh, snap: Jets, Aaron Rodgers open on MNF again
- Cowboys, Browns and Brady featured in Week 1 matchup
- Lions award Jared Goff four-year, $212M extension
- Bucs S Antoine Winfield gets record 4-year, $84.1M extension
- Saints reach deal with veteran G Lucas Patrick
- Chiefs to open 2024 season vs. Ravens
- Former Chargers GM A.J. Smith dies at 75
- Pats coach Jerod Mayo says QB Drake Maye will 'put the work in'
- Patriots name Eliot Wolf executive VP of player personnel
- Bill Belichick gets weekly spot on ESPN's 'ManningCast'
- Broncos first-round QB Bo Nix signs rookie contract
- Cardinals, WR Zay Jones agree on one-year deal
- Aidan O'Connell is early leader in Raiders' QB competition
The Paur Report
New England Patriots rookie wide receiver Javon Baker flashed significant promise during his first NFL practice this week, according to Jeff Howe of The Athletic. Howe notes that Baker made several impressive plays. He reached to save a sailing throw, utilized "nifty footwork" to get out of his break on a crossing route, and generally demonstrated smooth route-running." There will be growing pains in 2024 as head coach Jerod Mayo, quarterback Drake Maye, and receivers Ja'Lynn Polk and Baker embark on their rookie seasons. However, early indications suggest that Baker could make an immediate impact in New England, earning opportunities over the likes of Polk, Kendrick Bourne, and Demario Douglas. He's a fringe top-30 rookie in fantasy football dynasty leagues.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels, whom the team selected second overall in last month's NFL Draft, is already making a positive impression during the early days of OTAs. "His football IQ is really high," offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury said. "He's really well versed in protections." Kingsbury noted that Daniels works very hard, constantly improved on tape in college, and is always working hard to get better. The former LSU signal-caller also drew praise from wide receiver Jahan Dotson, who said, "That's the quarterback I wanted." He added that he's been very impressed by what he has seen from Daniels so far. Overall, there seems to be plenty of positive buzz surrounding Daniels. There's a case to be made that he could be the No. 1 rookie quarterback in fantasy football, putting him over the likes of Caleb Williams and the rest of the class. He should be a top-five pick in rookie drafts and a must-draft name in most redraft formats.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins (Achilles) was seen jogging lightly and throwing during OTAs on Tuesday, according to Zach Klein of WSB. The veteran signal-caller tore his Achilles while playing for the Minnesota Vikings roughly six months ago, but this latest update suggests his recovery is going quite well. Reports out of Georgia indicate that Cousins is already forming a firm rapport with his receivers, including Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Darnell Mooney. As long as Cousins remains on track to play Week 1, he'll enter the 2024 campaign as a fringe top-12 quarterback in fantasy football.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals tight end Erick All (knee) participated in drills during OTAs on Tuesday, according to James Rapien of Sports Illustrated. The rookie was selected with the 115th pick in last month's NFL Draft and is currently recovering from the torn ACL he suffered while playing collegiate football at the University of Iowa. There's no shortage of former Hawkeye tight ends making a big impact at the pro level, so fans should be excited about watching All get healthy and make his NFL debut. All does face some competition for volume in Cincinnati, but most of those targets will go to the wide receiver position. At tight end, All could battle to earn the top spot over the likes of Mike Gesicki and Drew Sample.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders wide receiver Luke McCaffrey "lined up outside more than expected" during Day 1 of OTAs on Tuesday, according to Ben Standig of The Athletic. Washington selected McCaffrey, a product of Rice University, with the 100th overall selection in the third round of April's NFL Draft. McCaffrey impressed in the slot throughout his college career, demonstrating the physicality, athleticism, and ball security skills needed to succeed there at the next level. However, it appears that Washington has different plans or at least wants to explore all their options with the rookie. Perhaps he has impressed the coaching staff enough for them to experiment with him outside. Such positional versatility could allow McCaffrey to carve out a decent role in his first pro season, though he's still off the radar in most redraft leagues. For dynasty purposes, he's a fringe top-25 rookie heading into the 2024 campaign.
From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos and rookie third-round linebacker Jonah Elliss (shoulder) agreed to a four-year, $5.87 million rookie contract on Tuesday that includes a $1.09 million signing bonus. The 21-year-old pass-rusher had 12 sacks in just 10 games in his final year at Utah in 2023. His injury ultimately required surgery to fix a torn labrum in his shoulder, but Elliss took part in walkthroughs and individual periods during the team's rookie minicamp last weekend. Barring a setback, he should be ready to go for training camp this summer and the start of his first year in the NFL this fall. He's the son of former NFL player Luther Elliss and could factor in as a situational pass-rusher in Denver in his rookie campaign if he's able to stay healthy.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions general manager Brad Holmes said this week on The Rich Eisen Show that second-year running back Jahmyr Gibbs could have an even bigger role in 2024. "I definitely would expect him to see more of a load, but David Montgomery will still be here too," Holmes said. "Dan and I love that 1-2 punch of him and David." The former first-round pick in 2023 was third among running backs with 5.2 yards per carry in his rookie campaign, so fantasy managers that were already fond of Gibbs' stock in a rising Lions offense will be pleased that he could be even more valuable as an RB1 in 2024. Not only should the 22-year-old former Alabama back see more carries, but he should also be more involved in the passing attack, where he can really excel with yards after the catch in open space. Only seven RBs saw more targets than Gibbs' 71 in 2023.
From RotoBaller
Veteran free-agent wide receiver Martavis Bryant is scheduled to work out for the Washington Commanders on Wednesday, according to a source. Bryant was released last week by the Dallas Cowboys, whose former defensive coordinator is now the head coach for the Commanders. The former fourth-round pick by the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2014 out of Clemson has had his NFL career ruined by off-the-field issues that have led to suspensions, and he hasn't appeared in an NFL game since 2018 with the Raiders. The 32-year-old would merely serve as receiver depth heading into training camp and the postseason in Washington behind the likes of Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, rookie Luke McCaffrey, Dyami Brown and others if he were to sign with the Commanders. In four NFL seasons, Bryant has caught 145 passes for 2,183 yards and 17 touchdowns in 44 games (18 starts).
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers running back MarShawn Lloyd signed his rookie deal, the organization announced on Tuesday. Lloyd, who was selected in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft, is expected to see a role in Year 1 behind Josh Jacobs in the emerging Packers' offense. Although the 23-year-old didn't have the most productive career at South Carolina and Southern California, he flashed explosiveness in 2023 with 7.1 yards per carry and 17.8 yards per reception. His 4.46 forty-yard-dash time at 220 pounds likely cemented himself as a Day 2 draft choice, and running backs taken before Round 4 are usually given a fair shot at competing for touches. He should beat out AJ Dillon at some point in 2024, making him a high-end handcuff RB for redraft leagues.
From RotoBaller
The Minnesota Vikings released veteran cornerback Joejuan Williams on Tuesday, according to NFL insider Tom Pelissero. The former Vanderbilt Commodore was a second-round pick by the New England Patriots in 2019 but has not found his footing in the NFL. Across 42 games with the Patriots, Vikings, and Bears, Williams has collected 46 tackles (32 solo), 10 pass deflections, and no interceptions. The 26-year-old signed a reserve/future contract on January 8 with the Vikings, but he is being let go after the team selected Oregon cornerback Khyree Jackson in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
From RotoBaller
The Cincinnati Bengals signed rookie third-round wide receiver Jermaine Burton and rookie fourth-round tight end Erick All to their rookie deals on Tuesday. With Joe Burrow at quarterback and Tee Higgins potentially playing his last season with the Bengals in 2024, both first-year pass-catchers are on the fantasy football radar in redraft and dynasty leagues. In Burton's final two collegiate seasons at Alabama, he caught 79 passes for 1,475 yards and 15 touchdowns. With 4.45 speed, he could act as a field stretcher and start in three-wide sets right away in Zac Taylor's offense. All, who caught 21 passes for 299 yards and three touchdowns in Iowa's lifeless offense last year, will look to push Mike Gesicki for the TE1 job in his rookie campaign.
From RotoBaller
The Washington Commanders released quarterback Jake Fromm on Tuesday, according to NFL.com. The former Georgia Bulldog was a fifth-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft by the Buffalo Bills and spent the last two seasons with Washington after a brief stint with the New York Giants. Despite being in the league for four seasons, he has thrown just 60 passes, completing 27 of them for 210 yards and one touchdown to go along with three interceptions. The Commanders signed Marcus Mariota this offseason and added rookies Jayden Daniels and Sam Hartman to their quarterback room, so Fromm became expendable. The 25-year-old is unlikely to earn playing time anytime soon barring a slew of injuries around the NFL.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett (knee) is not practicing on Tuesday, according to head coach Raheem Morris. The two-time Pro Bowl selection and one-time All-Pro suffered a torn ACL in the Week 8 loss to the Tennessee Titans last year, so he'll likely be eased into action this offseason and beyond. Jarrett has compiled three seasons of at least six sacks, but he only charted 1.5 sacks in eight games last season. Atlanta's pass rush has been an issue over the last few years, and the organization opted to draft quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 overall pick instead of a defender, so Jarrett's early-season availability and effectiveness will be key as the Falcons look to contend for a Super Bowl with Kirk Cousins under center.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Jared Goff and the Lions have agreed on a four-year contract extension. Dynasty Analysis: A relative afterthought in the Matthew Stafford trade from years ago, Goff has had a career resurgence with the Lions. He'll get $170 million guaranteed and makes him the highest paid player in franchise history. Goff is coming off a season with more than 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns, making him a reliable low-end QB1. While he offers little as a runner, Goff is about as stable as they come and makes for a solid veteran add for a dynasty team as a low-end starter or very solid QB2.
Dynasty | The Bills have signed free agent wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Dynasty Analysis: The Bills look like they're going to attack the post-Stefon Diggs era with a "WR by committee" approach that could feature the likes of Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Chase Claypool and now MVS. While Coleman remains the only blue chip player on that list, someone else is likely to emerge. Valdes-Scantling is likely no more than a roster clogger-level player moving forward but this development is enough to keep him on the dynasty radar.
Despite requesting a trade this offseason, Cincinnati Bengals star pass-rusher Trey Hendrickson confirmed his desire to play for the team in 2024 after Tuesday's offseason workout. "That's a no-brainer," Hendrickson said. "I mean, I love this team. I'm in great shape. It's good to see the guys." The three-time Pro Bowler rejoined the team this week for the voluntary offseason workout program. The 29-year-old was second in the NFL in sacks in 2023 with 17.5 and initially asked to be traded when the Bengals didn't reward him with a long-term contract extension. Contract issues aside, Hendrickson has been one of the league's best edge rushers since he was signed by Cincy in 2021 on a four-year deal worth $60 million. He has 40.5 total sacks in that time, the fifth-highest total in the NFL.
From RotoBaller
The back-to-back Super Bowl-champion Kansas City Chiefs will begin their attempt for the first-ever three-peat in 2024 when they host the Baltimore Ravens in the league's annual prime-time season opener, which will be played on Thursday, Sept. 5. It will be a rematch of last year's AFC Championship, which the Chiefs won 17-10 before beating the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII. The Chiefs will then face the Cincinnati Bengals at Arrowhead in Week 2. The Week 1 matchup against Baltimore features two of the game's top QBs in Patrick Mahomes, the Super Bowl MVP the last two years, and Lamar Jackson, the reigning NFL MVP. Mahomes has gone 4-1 in the matchup against Jackson, including in the playoffs. KC has opened as a 2.5-point favorite and are 2-1 in the NFL kickoff game since it was introduced in 2002.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons running backs Bijan Robinson (ankle) and Jase McClellan (foot) were not at practice on Tuesday at organized team activities. It's notable, but shouldn't affect Robinson's 2024 fantasy draft stock. The 22-year-old former first-rounder is expected to be back on the field for the team's mandatory minicamp. As long as Robinson's ankle isn't bothering him once he returns to practice, it should be a non-factor by the time the 2024 regular season begins. Now that quarterback Kirk Cousins is in town, Robinson will be even more attractive as a high-end RB1 in fantasy. The former eighth overall pick in 2023 out of Texas is a do-it-all back that had 976 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 214 rushing attempts in his rookie season, adding 58 receptions for 487 yards and another four TDs in 17 games (16 starts) in 2023.
From RotoBaller
The Buffalo Bills signed veteran wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling to a one-year deal worth up to $4.5 million on Tuesday, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. MVS is no stranger to playing with elite quarterbacks between his time with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay and Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City, and he'll now be in line to catch passes from Josh Allen in Buffalo. The 2018 fifth-round pick out of South Florida has not posted monster fantasy football numbers, but he has spike-week upside thanks to his field-stretching speed. That said, he's likely going to be more useful in "real life" compared to fantasy football based on his production profile thus far. In six NFL seasons, the 29-year-old has not eclipsed 690 yards or six touchdowns in a single season. Last year, he caught just 21 passes for 315 yards and one touchdown in 16 games. He's an interesting late-round flyer in best ball formats, but he might be a wasted roster spot in traditional leagues. MVS will compete with Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel for snaps in 2024, as second-round rookie Keon Coleman should be a locked-in starter.
From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos signed free-agent wide receiver Phillip Dorsett and cornerback Quinton Newsome to undisclosed deals on Monday, according to the team. In corresponding moves, the Broncos waived punter Nik Constantinou and receiver Lincoln Victor. Dorsett was released by Denver last Friday after initially signing with the team's practice squad before the 2023 season. The 31-year-old former 29th overall pick by the Indianapolis Colts in 2015 out of Miami was elevated just twice during the regular season last year and was unable to reel in any of his three targets. In his eight NFL seasons, Dorsett has a total of 151 catches for 2,001 yards and 12 touchdowns in 94 games (20 starts). He'll serve as receiver depth for the Broncos this summer behind Courtland Sutton, Josh Reynolds, Marvin Mims Jr., rookie Troy Franklin and Tim Patrick.
From RotoBaller
