Lineup Prep: Championship Games
Wed Jan 24 8:44am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Gibbs can produce big this week
Last week was sure entertaining. Let’s hope the games this week are just as good. I sure think it is possible. The matchups seems pretty even to me. I know the 49ers are pretty good favorites against the Lions at home, but I think Detroit can keep it close. And the Chiefs/Ravens game is setup to be fantastic. These teams are both rolling right now. We get to see two of the greatest quarterbacks in football battle it out to make the Super Bowl. This should be fun.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
Those were some games last week. It was fun to watch, especially that Chiefs/Bills game. You have to feel for Josh Allen. He had a great run in the playoffs, but just can’t get over that Kansas City hump. It was there for the taking last week for Allen, but his field goal kicker let him down. I still think Allen is an elite level quarterback than can win the big game. It will come for him sooner than later. He is just running into a buzz saw with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs right now.
I don’t think Brock Purdy silenced the doubters after last week’s game. He was not great until that last game-winning drive. He still looked a little shaky to me most of that game. And the loss of Deebo Samuel could be huge for him and the offense. Samuel seems to be a calming influence for Purdy. I am interested to see him play this week. This could be make or break for him.
Aaron Jones sure is a difference maker when healthy. He was unbelievable for the Packers down the stretch, having five straight 100-yard rushing games. The issue is Jones is hard to trust because of his injury history and age. He is 29 years old and missed five games each of the last two seasons and played a full season just once the last five years. I love his talent, but have a hard time taking him on draft day - even after his huge finish to this season.
I’m happy for Baker Mayfield. He seems to have found a home after a rocky start to his career. He was terrific for the Bucs with that great group of receivers. And he almost played that team into the NFC Championship game last week, throwing three more touchdown passes. I don’t see the Bucs letting him loose and I think he could be a top-10 fantasy quarterback once again next season in Tampa. I don’t think it was a fluke this year.
I am really hoping the Texans make a run at Saquon Barkley this offseason. Could you imagine him in that offense? I think he would be a great fit and a huge spark for that running game in Houston. I think this would just be an ideal landing spot for Barkley when it comes to his fantasy value. Let’s make this happen!
The Ravens have a great team and are the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but can you imagine that offense with a healthy JK Dobbins or Keaton Mitchell all season. Both these backs are difference makers in my eyes and big upgrades over what they are using right now. I still think Dobbins can be a star in this league. Just something to keep in mind next season when these guys are back playing.
I like the Titans hire of Brian Callahan as their next head coach. He should be a positive for that offense, especially quarterback Will Levis. Hopefully, he can take this offense to a new level and give us a bunch of fantasy relevant players. Callahan is a bright, young offensive mind that has been integral in the development of Joe Burrow. Let’s hope he can do the same for Levis.
News and Notes: The Lions signed tight end Zach Ertz to their practice squad on Monday. Ertz gives the Lions depth at the position after an injury to Brock Wright.
HOT PLAYS
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. With Deebo Samuel very iffy to play, Aiyuk should be the top target at receiver for the 49ers this week. He didn’t do much last week, but was targeted six times in the game, which was encouraging. He gets a much better matchup this week against the Lions, a team that has allowed five straight 300-yard passing games. Aiyuk can have a big showing in this matchup.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions. Gibbs had a big game last week, topping 100 total yards while scoring a touchdown. He has touchdowns each of the first two playoff games for the Lions. He has 16-plus fantasy points each of those games. Gibbs is playing well and should be heavily involved in the offense again this week. The 49ers have been great against the run much of the year, but shown some issues stopping the run lately. San Francisco allowed 136-rushing yards last week and given up 100-plus rushing yards four of five games.
COLD PLAYS
Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff had a great overall season, but his fantasy numbers haven’t been too off the charts. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points three of five games. He is getting his yards, but the Lions tend to run the ball in more for scores than pass. He might be an iffy fantasy play this week against the 49ers. San Francisco allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season.
Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens. Edwards has failed to score each of his last two games, giving him really poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than six fantasy points each of his last two games, failing to hit 50-rushing yards each of those games. Edwards could have a similar showing this week against the Chiefs, a team that allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs. Kansas City allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season.
SLEEPERS
Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens. Bateman had three receptions for 39 yards on three targets last week. He had a solid game but failed to hit double-digit fantasy points once again. The good news is he got his looks once again. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense, but Bateman could have more favorable coverages than Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. Those guys should draw the tougher assignments, leaving Bateman a chance to make some big plays in the passing game. He could surprise this week.
Justice Hill, RB, Ravens. Hill led the Ravens in rushing last week, including rushing attempts. He got more work than starter Gus Edwards. Hill had 15 touches for 77 total yards. He could be setup for a similar workload in what could be a high-scoring fantasy teams. This means Hill could have a big fantasy showing. At this point, we might trust Hill more than Edwards, who is a more touchdown dependent player.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Chiefs/Ravens, Lions/49ers.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
- WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling visiting Chargers
- Raiders sign free agent WR Jalen Guyton
- Panthers to sign RB Rashaad Penny
- Pats waive Nathan Rourke, down to four QBs
- RB Duke Johnson retires from NFL after 8 seasons
- Former Bears QB Bob Avellini dies at age 70
- J.J. Watt leaves door open (slightly) for potential return to Texans
- Seahawks sign first-round pick Byron Murphy II
- Jets QB Aaron Rodgers: 'No restrictions' at OTAs
- Former Giants TE Aaron Thomas dies at 86
- Michael Irvin out at NFL Network
- Bills sign Chase Claypool, Deion Jones, Dawuane Smoot
- Dolphins, Odell Beckham Jr. agree to 1-year deal
- Chargers add wide receiver DJ Chark
- Chiefs decline WR Kadarius Toney's 2025 option
- Cowboys' Dak Prescott won't face charges for alleged assault
- Ravens sign 5 draft picks, including first-rounder Nate Wiggins
- Steelers decline RB Najee Harris' fifth-year option
- Colts guarantee edge rusher Kwity Paye $13.4M, pick up 2025 option
- Packers decline CB Eric Stokes' fifth-year option
- Fantasy Six Pack: Dynasty Football Mock Draft Review: Post-NFL Draft
- Fantasy Six Pack: IDP Expert Rookie Mock Draft – Post-NFL Draft
- Fantasy Six Pack: Dynasty Football Rookie TE Landing Spots
- Fantasy Six Pack: Dynasty Football Rookie WR Landing Spots
The Paur Report
Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White saw 75.3% of the team's running back carries and targets in 2023, but running back coach Skip Peete said there will be more competition for touches this season. Tampa Bay selected Oregon running back Bucky Irving in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft, while Chase Edmonds and 2023 undrafted free agent Sean Tucker remain on the roster. Ultimately, none of the running backs behind White are expensive investments for the organization, and it's always tricky to know whether a coach is being transparent or just trying to motivate the players in his position room. White was the RB4 overall (PPR) last season behind 990 rushing yards, 549 receiving yards, and nine total touchdowns. Although he could see his rushing volume take a hit, his receiving skill set that he's flashed since his collegiate career at Arizona State should keep him on the field for high-yield fantasy situations.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy is coming along quickly at rookie minicamp, according to head coach Andy Reid. "I thought he did a nice job picking things up," Reid said "We asked him to do a whole lot of stuff there. He was put in mostly the primary spots, so it was good for him to get in there and move around a little bit." The speedster out of Texas recorded two touchdowns in 7-on-7 drills on Monday, according to ArrowHeadPride.com. This year's No. 28 overall pick will have sky-high expectations right away because of his situation with quarterback Patrick Mahomes and his record-breaking 4.21 forty-yard dash at the NFL combine. However, Kansas City has a complex offense to learn, and the pass-catching trio of Travis Kelce, Marquise Brown, and Rashee Rice presents stiff target competition for Worthy in Year 1.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent defensive lineman Marlon Davidson has agreed to terms to sign with the Tennessee Titans, according to ESPN's Turron Davenport. The former First-Team All-SEC performer at Auburn was selected with the No. 47 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft by the Atlanta Falcons, but he played in just 19 games for the organization. After a brief stint with the San Francisco 49ers last offseason, he signed with the Titans as a member of the practice squad and ended up appearing in five games. Overall, the 25-year-old has accumulated 39 tackles, two sacks, one interception, two pass deflections, and three run stuffs through his first 24 NFL contests. He'll likely compete to be a rotational run-stopper after Tennessee selected Texas defensive tackle T'Vondre Sweat in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin is moving back into the slot receiver role in 2024, according to his position coach, Bryan McClendon. Godwin, who has posted at least 1,000 receiving yards in four of his last five seasons, played just 32.1% of his snaps in the slot last year. In 2022, he lined up in the slot 57.6% of the time. The 28-year-old's 7.6 targets per game was his lowest clip since 2020, so perhaps a move back to his more natural position will see that figure come back toward the 9.0 per game range. Mike Evans remains in the X-role, while Trey Palmer and third-round rookie Jalen McMillan will compete to start in three-wide sets.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins running back Jeff Wilson Jr. won't be assured of a roster spot out of training camp this summer as part of a crowded backfield that includes Raheem Mostert, De'Von Achane and rookie fourth-rounder Jaylen Wright. The Dolphins also have Salvon Ahmed and Chris Brooks in the RB room. Head coach Mike McDaniel has an affinity for Wilson dating back to their time together with the San Francisco 49ers, but the fact remains that Mostert, Achane and Wright will be locks for the roster. The former undrafted free agent out of North Texas failed to take advantage of Achane's injuries in 2023 and only played in 10 games (zero starts) himself, running for just 188 yards and no touchdowns on 41 carries while adding 14 receptions for 85 yards and no touchdowns.
From RotoBaller
Most of the beat writers for the New York Giants would be surprised if first-round rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers isn't the team's most targeted player right away in 2024, but Wan'Dale Robinson should give him a good race. A fully healthy Robinson should push for the team lead in targets, but it's obvious that Nabers, the sixth overall pick in this year's NFL draft, has much more fantasy upside, both in the short and long term. The Giants are going to need playmakers like Nabers and Robinson to step now that running back Saquon Barkley is no longer in town. The 23-year-old Robinson, who was a second-rounder in 2022, suffered an ACL tear in his rookie year before catching 60 of 78 targets for 525 yards and a touchdown in 15 games (eight starts) last year. There's potential for a Robinson to take a big step forward in 2024, but it will also depend on quarterback Daniel Jones' (knee) health.
From RotoBaller
It sounds as though the Green Bay Packers have plans to integrate rookie running back MarShawn Lloyd into their offense right away in 2024. "I would like to get him out there as much as possible," offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. The coordinator said that Lloyd doesn't bring the same type of versatility that AJ Dillon does, but the rookie brings a different speed element to their backfield, and the Packers want to get Lloyd into open spaces. The 23-year-old was taken in the third round (88th overall). Josh Jacobs is going to be the Packers' clear-cut backfield leader, but it sounds as though Lloyd is seriously going to challenge Dillon for complementary touches right away, although he'll need to secure the ball better than he did in college to stay on the field. Lloyd might not make much noise in redraft formats in 2024, but he's a fine target for dynasty/keeper managers.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent wide receiver Zay Jones, who was released by the Jacksonville Jaguars after the NFL draft, is visiting with the Tennessee Titans on Monday, according to a source. Jones has an obvious connection to Titans offensive coordinator Nick Holz, as the two worked together in Jacksonville in 2023. Jones became expendable for the Jags after they drafted Brian Thomas in the first round this year. The 29-year-old oft-injured receiver played in just nine games for Jacksonville last year due to a knee injury and finished with 34 catches for 321 yards and two touchdowns on 64 targets. If Jones does land in Tennessee with Holz, he'd merely be serving in a complementary depth role behind Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks if he can stay healthy, which would keep his fantasy ceiling and floor pretty low.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (wrist) is back on the field during the team's offseason workouts. Burrow is expected to be cleared for full contact at some point this month, and barring any setbacks after having surgery in November to fix a torn ligament in his right wrist, he should be fully recovered in time for training camp in late July. The 27-year-old has developed somewhat of a reputation for being injury-prone early in his career, but when he's healthy, he also has high-end QB1 upside in an offense that remains explosive with receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The former first overall pick in 2020 out of LSU was a Pro Bowler in 2022 in his last full season, when he threw for 4,475 yards, 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 16 starts. Burrow will be a fine QB1 target in fantasy after the top names come off the board.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent running back Rashaad Penny plans to sign an undisclosed deal with the Carolina Panthers, according to a source. The former first-round pick will reunite with head coach Dave Canales from their time together with the Seattle Seahawks. Penny will likely officially sign after the team's rookie minicamp, which wraps up on May 12. The 28-year-old from San Diego State was the 27th overall pick in 2018. Penny spent the first five years of his career in Seattle, displaying home run-hitting ability on the ground but struggling to stay healthy, appearing in just 42 games (11 starts). He played in just three games with the Eagles in 2023 and had only 11 carries for 33 yards. Penny will be joining another crowded backfield in Carolina that already consists of Chuba Hubbard, Miles Sanders and rookie Jonathon Brooks, so he's not going to be on the fantasy radar.
From RotoBaller
The Las Vegas Raiders signed former Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Jalen Guyton to an undisclosed deal on Monday. New Raiders general manager Tom Telesco also signed Guyton a few times when he was running the Chargers' front office. Guyton opened his last year with the Bolts in 2023 on the Physically Unable to Perform list, which caused him to miss the first eight games. When the 26-year-old returned, he had just 10 catches (21 targets) for 89 yards and a touchdown in eight games, even with Mike Williams (knee) missing most of the year with a season-ending injury. The former undrafted free agent out of North Texas can serve as a deep threat, but he's mostly served as receiving depth in his career and will continue to do so in Vegas behind Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker and Michael Gallup.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The New York Jets drafted running back Isaiah Davis in the fifth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Davis has an uphill climb to a roster spot with the New York Jets after being taken in the fifth round. The Jets already have Breece Hall as their starter and also took Braelon Allen to shore up their backfield. Still, he has a chance and could surprise as a late-round small school prospect. While he may need to beat out Allen to earn a spot on the team, Davis should still be kept on watch lists for the time being.
Free-agent WR Zay Jones (Jaguars) is visiting the Tennessee Titans, according to sources Monday, May 6.
From TheHuddle
Free-agent RB Rashaad Penny (Eagles) plans to sign with the Carolina Panthers following rookie minicamp, according to sources Monday, May 6. Financial terms of the deal were not immediately disclosed.
Fantasy Spin: Penny has always had intrigue since he became a first-round pick in 2018. With Chuba Hubbard and Jonathon Brooks already there, Penny isn't anything more than a desperation flier at the end of the roster.
From TheHuddle
Free-agent wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling is scheduled to visit the Chargers on Monday. The 29-year-old had six trips to the end zone in 2020 while still a member of the Green Bay Packers. Since then, he hasn't come close to that mark. He finished the 2023-24 campaign with Kansas City by posting career-lows in catches (21), receiving yards (315), and touchdowns (one). Valdes-Scantling's most notable contribution last season came in the postseason, with the 2018 No. 174 overall pick pulling in a 16-yard touchdown throw from Patrick Mahomes in the Chiefs 25-22 overtime win over the 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII. Nonetheless, MVS will likely find work this season. But it will be difficult to tell how things will look from a fantasy standpoint until he inks a deal, although he could get looks from Justin Herbert if he signs with Los Angeles, considering the team no longer has Keenan Allen or Mike Williams on the roster.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Chiefs) is scheduled to visit the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday, May 6, per source.
From TheHuddle
Free-agent RB Duke Johnson (Bills) announced his retirement from the NFL on Sunday, April 5.
From TheHuddle
Running back Duke Johnson announced his retirement from professional football on Sunday. Johnson was originally taken in the third round (77th overall) by the Cleveland Browns in the 2015 NFL draft out of Miami. He spent the first four seasons of his NFL career with the Browns before spending two years with the Houston Texans. Johnson played for the Miami Dolphins in 2021 and the Buffalo Bills in the final year of his career in 2022. The 30-year-old wraps up his career having recorded 2,265 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on 532 carries, adding 311 catches on 405 targets for 2,870 yards and an additional 12 touchdowns in 97 games (21 starts) covering eight seasons. Johnson had a career-high 410 rushing yards on 83 attempts in his first year in Houston in 2019.
From RotoBaller
Dallas police will not pursue sexual-assault charges against Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, with a police spokesperson saying that detectives determined there was insufficient evidence an offense was committed. The case stemmed from an alleged incident that occurred in 2017 in which a woman said Prescott assaulted her in the back of an SUV in a strip club parking lot. In March, Prescott filed a suit seeking monetary relief in excess of $1 million after receiving a letter in January from attorneys on behalf of the woman that they would "forego pursuing criminal charges, along with disclosing this information to the public, in exchange for compensating her for the mental anguish she has suffered." It's unclear if the NFL is doing their separate investigation, but either way, it doesn't appear likely that Prescott will be in danger of facing a suspension from the league.
From RotoBaller
Pass-rusher J.J. Watt isn't ruling out a return to professional football if the Houston Texans need him, but this if the final year that he'll say that. Watt retired after the 2022 season. "I told DeMeco [Ryans] last year: 'Don't call unless you absolutely need it, but, if you ever do call, I'll be there.' And he knows not to call unless he absolutely needs it. This is the last year I'll tell him that, because I'm not going to keep training [the way] I've been training," Watt said. The 35-year-old and Ryans played in Houston together in 2011, which was Watt's first NFL season and Ryans' last with the Texans. It's unlikely the Texans need Watt after signing Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry this offseason to pair with impressive second-year pass-rusher Will Anderson Jr. Watt is currently an analyst for CBS Sports.
From RotoBaller
