Lineup Prep: Championship Games
Wed Jan 24 8:44am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Gibbs can produce big this week
Last week was sure entertaining. Let’s hope the games this week are just as good. I sure think it is possible. The matchups seems pretty even to me. I know the 49ers are pretty good favorites against the Lions at home, but I think Detroit can keep it close. And the Chiefs/Ravens game is setup to be fantastic. These teams are both rolling right now. We get to see two of the greatest quarterbacks in football battle it out to make the Super Bowl. This should be fun.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
Those were some games last week. It was fun to watch, especially that Chiefs/Bills game. You have to feel for Josh Allen. He had a great run in the playoffs, but just can’t get over that Kansas City hump. It was there for the taking last week for Allen, but his field goal kicker let him down. I still think Allen is an elite level quarterback than can win the big game. It will come for him sooner than later. He is just running into a buzz saw with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs right now.
I don’t think Brock Purdy silenced the doubters after last week’s game. He was not great until that last game-winning drive. He still looked a little shaky to me most of that game. And the loss of Deebo Samuel could be huge for him and the offense. Samuel seems to be a calming influence for Purdy. I am interested to see him play this week. This could be make or break for him.
Aaron Jones sure is a difference maker when healthy. He was unbelievable for the Packers down the stretch, having five straight 100-yard rushing games. The issue is Jones is hard to trust because of his injury history and age. He is 29 years old and missed five games each of the last two seasons and played a full season just once the last five years. I love his talent, but have a hard time taking him on draft day - even after his huge finish to this season.
I’m happy for Baker Mayfield. He seems to have found a home after a rocky start to his career. He was terrific for the Bucs with that great group of receivers. And he almost played that team into the NFC Championship game last week, throwing three more touchdown passes. I don’t see the Bucs letting him loose and I think he could be a top-10 fantasy quarterback once again next season in Tampa. I don’t think it was a fluke this year.
I am really hoping the Texans make a run at Saquon Barkley this offseason. Could you imagine him in that offense? I think he would be a great fit and a huge spark for that running game in Houston. I think this would just be an ideal landing spot for Barkley when it comes to his fantasy value. Let’s make this happen!
The Ravens have a great team and are the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but can you imagine that offense with a healthy JK Dobbins or Keaton Mitchell all season. Both these backs are difference makers in my eyes and big upgrades over what they are using right now. I still think Dobbins can be a star in this league. Just something to keep in mind next season when these guys are back playing.
I like the Titans hire of Brian Callahan as their next head coach. He should be a positive for that offense, especially quarterback Will Levis. Hopefully, he can take this offense to a new level and give us a bunch of fantasy relevant players. Callahan is a bright, young offensive mind that has been integral in the development of Joe Burrow. Let’s hope he can do the same for Levis.
News and Notes: The Lions signed tight end Zach Ertz to their practice squad on Monday. Ertz gives the Lions depth at the position after an injury to Brock Wright.
HOT PLAYS
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. With Deebo Samuel very iffy to play, Aiyuk should be the top target at receiver for the 49ers this week. He didn’t do much last week, but was targeted six times in the game, which was encouraging. He gets a much better matchup this week against the Lions, a team that has allowed five straight 300-yard passing games. Aiyuk can have a big showing in this matchup.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions. Gibbs had a big game last week, topping 100 total yards while scoring a touchdown. He has touchdowns each of the first two playoff games for the Lions. He has 16-plus fantasy points each of those games. Gibbs is playing well and should be heavily involved in the offense again this week. The 49ers have been great against the run much of the year, but shown some issues stopping the run lately. San Francisco allowed 136-rushing yards last week and given up 100-plus rushing yards four of five games.
COLD PLAYS
Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff had a great overall season, but his fantasy numbers haven’t been too off the charts. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points three of five games. He is getting his yards, but the Lions tend to run the ball in more for scores than pass. He might be an iffy fantasy play this week against the 49ers. San Francisco allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season.
Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens. Edwards has failed to score each of his last two games, giving him really poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than six fantasy points each of his last two games, failing to hit 50-rushing yards each of those games. Edwards could have a similar showing this week against the Chiefs, a team that allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs. Kansas City allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season.
SLEEPERS
Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens. Bateman had three receptions for 39 yards on three targets last week. He had a solid game but failed to hit double-digit fantasy points once again. The good news is he got his looks once again. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense, but Bateman could have more favorable coverages than Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. Those guys should draw the tougher assignments, leaving Bateman a chance to make some big plays in the passing game. He could surprise this week.
Justice Hill, RB, Ravens. Hill led the Ravens in rushing last week, including rushing attempts. He got more work than starter Gus Edwards. Hill had 15 touches for 77 total yards. He could be setup for a similar workload in what could be a high-scoring fantasy teams. This means Hill could have a big fantasy showing. At this point, we might trust Hill more than Edwards, who is a more touchdown dependent player.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Chiefs/Ravens, Lions/49ers.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Dynasty | Johnny Wilson was drafted in the sixth round of the NFL Draft by the Philadelphia Eagles Dynasty Analysis: Wilson fell all the way down to the sixth round before being taken by the Eagles as the 27th receiver overall. It was a pretty disappointing result for Wilson, whose NFL Draft Combine performance proved to be disastrous. It's hard to say what his future will be but a move to tight end may be best for his career. Regardless, Wilson looks like a late-round dart throw who at least landed on a team known for being creative with players.
Dynasty | The Los Angeles Chargers drafted USC wide receiver Brenden Rice in the 7th round of the 2024 NFL Draft Dynasty Analysis: Rice dropped all the way down to the seventh round before being taken by the Los Angeles Chargers. It was a tough turn of events as he'll have an uphill climb for a roster spot. He's easy to root for as the son of Hall of Famer Jerry Rice but it's hard to see him making an impact in the NFL any time soon. Rice is a watch list candidate or late round dart throw in rookie drafts at the moment.
Dynasty | The Tennessee Titans signed undrafted Washington running back Dillon Johnson. Dynasty Analysis: The questions regarding Johnson's speed and athletic profile proved to be too significant for him to be drafted. Instead, he signed a free agent deal with the Tennessee Titans and will attempt the make the roster as a UDFA. Johnson likely chose a solid spot to attempt just that as the Titans aren't exactly stacked at running back. Still, the fact he dropped all the way out of the draft leaves him as a player to simply keep on watch lists.
Dynasty | The New England Patriots drafted Florida State tight end Jaheim Bell in the seventh round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Bell was drafted by the Patriots all the way down in the seventh round. He was likely knocked by most scouts because of his size, so he'll need to prove he has the physicality to make it. Unfortunately, the odds are long for Bell as a late round pick so he'll need to make a splash quickly. Keep an eye on him this off-season.
Dynasty | The Buffalo Bills have signed UDFA running back Frank Gore Jr. Dynasty Analysis: Gore fell out of the 2024 NFL Draft but landed on his feet with the Buffalo Bills quickly after. He'll likely compete with Ty Johnson, Darrynton Evans and a few other runners for a spot behind James Cook and presumptive RB2 Ray Davis. Still, the draft capitlal just isn't there to keep him as anything more than a watch list candidate at the moment.
Dynasty | The Green Bay Packers drafted Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt. Dynasty Analysis: Pratt was a hot name going into the draft but fell all the way down to final round before being taken by the Packers. WIth Jordan Love established as the starter, Pratt could challenge for the backup spot eventually. However, the drop in the 2024 NFL Draft leaves him as a little more than a late round flier or player to watch this Spring and Summer.
Dynasty | Texans wide receiver Tank Dell was treated and released with a minor gunshot wound Sunday. Dynasty Analysis: Dynasty managers likely lost their minds when they saw headlines today that said, "Tank Dell has been shot." In the end, Dell was one of up to ten people who were wounded after gunshots were fired at a social gathering. It's a scary situation but one that looks to be free of anything worse. Dell is on his way back from a nasty leg injury from last year and remains a high upside player - this certainly won't change that.
The Washington Commanders have signed undrafted running back MIchael Wiley. The Arizona product has put together a fairly strong college career. He has nearly 3,000 yards from scrimmage and 28 touchdowns during his time at Arizona. He's not exactly a workhorse back with only one season with 100-plus rushing attempts. Despite that, Wiley can still make an impact at the pro level. He'll have an uphill battle during camp, but the Commanders don't have many of reliable backs.
From RotoBaller
The Tennessee Titans have reportedly signed undrafted running back Jabari Small. The young back is a bit undersized but has made some noise with his legs. Small rushed for over 700 yards in 2021 but hasn't really been the same since then. He was a solid option as the No. 2 back to Jaylen Wright this past season. He'll likely compete for snaps alongside Tyjae Spears with Tony Pollard as the new lead back in Tennessee.
From RotoBaller
The Washington Commanders have signed quarterback Sam Hartman on Sunday. The Notre Dame signal-caller went undrafted during this weekend's NFL draft. There were rumors of Hartman going to the Chicago Bears, but instead Hartman will head to Washington. The six-year prospect finished his college career with Notre Dame after playing mostly at Wake Forest. Hartman threw for 2,689 passing yards with 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions during his last year in college. He should get a legitimate chance to compete for the backup gig with veteran Marcus Mariota in camp. It seems likely that Jaylen Daniels has the starting quarterback gig locked up heading into camp.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans wide receiver Tank Dell (leg) suffered a gunshot wound on Sunday morning after a 16-year-old suspect opened fire during a physical altercation at a private event in Sanford, Florida. Dell, who was at the event but not involved, suffered a "minor wound," with the team reporting the wideout is in "good spirits" and has been released from the hospital. Others were injured during the incident. Fortunately, no one suffered life-threatening injuries. As far as the gunman, he was arrested and charged with several crimes, including attempted homicide, before being transported to a juvenile detention facility. The 24-year-old is currently working his way back from a broken leg suffered at the end of last season and should remain on schedule to return for the 2024-25 campaign, barring any setbacks related to the incident.
From RotoBaller
Despite taking quarterback Drake Maye with the third overall pick in this year's NFL draft on Thursday night, the New England Patriots selected Tennessee QB Joe Milton III in the sixth round on Saturday at pick No. 193. The 6-foot-5, 246-pounder said all of his talks with the Patriots have been about playing quarterback, even though some draft analysts have wondered if teams would consider making him a tight end because of his size. "That will never happen," Milton said. The Pats now have five QBs on their roster, led by veteran Jacoby Brissett. After Brissett and Maye, they have Bailey Zappe, Nathan Rourke and Milton. It's the second time in Patriots history that they took two QBs in a draft, with the other coming in 1983 when they took both Tony Eason and Tom Ramsey. They were also the fourth team since 2000 to take a QB after also taking one in the first round.
From RotoBaller
Despite taking a brief pause in contract negotiations during NFL draft weekend, Minnesota Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said the team and wide receiver Justin Jefferson continue to make progress. "We continue to have great dialogue with their representatives," Adofo-Mensah said. "The process is still ongoing. We did say, 'Hey, [let's pause] a couple days.' The draft's coming. They have players they represent. We have our process." The two sides have been discussing a new deal for more than a year, with the GM saying previously they got "unbelievably close" to a deal last summer. Despite going on Injured Reserve in 2023 with a hamstring injury, Jefferson still went over 1,000 yards receiving and scored five touchdowns. Sooner than later, he's going to become the league's highest-paid wideout.
From RotoBaller
Despite the Atlanta Falcons shockingly taking quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL draft on Thursday night, veteran QB Kirk Cousins' position as the team's starting signal-caller of the foreseeable future has not changed, according to head coach Raheem Morris. Minnesota signed Cousins to a four-year deal worth up to $180 million, with $100 million guaranteed, in free agency in March. Morris said Cousins doesn't have to look over his shoulder, and that there is no QB controversy at all. Cousins' agent, Mike McCartney, said there was frustration and confusion coming from his camp because the team didn't use their first-round pick to improve the team in 2024. Cousins will be Atlanta's starter in 2024, but perhaps the Falcons are just giving themselves some extra insurance with Cousins coming off an Achilles tear.
From RotoBaller
The Minnesota Vikings drafted quarterback J.J. McCarthy 10th overall in this year's NFL draft for him to be their future starter, but the team is poised to err on the side of methodical caution with their young signal-caller. "We're not going to rush his development," general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said. "We're just going to do what's best for the Vikings in the short and long term." McCarthy will be required to hit specific benchmarks in his development, and head coach Kevin O'Connell will have full authority to make the decision on when he thinks McCarthy is ready to start. It's a big reason the Vikings spent $10 million to sign veteran Sam Darnold as a bridge starter. McCarthy just turned 21 in January and played in an offense at Michigan that had him throw an average of 22.1 passes per game in 2023, fewer than 93 other college QBs.
From RotoBaller
Former Cincinnati Bengals and New York Giants wide receiver John Ross, whose 4.22-second 40-yard dash was the NFL scouting combine record until Xavier Worthy broke it earlier this year, will take part in the Philadelphia Eagles' rookie camp this week on a tryout basis, according to sources. Ross had retired last year but is now attempting to make a comeback. The 28-year-old speedster ended up being a bust after the Bengals took him with the ninth overall pick in the 2017 NFL draft out of Washington. Ross last played for the G-Men in 2021 and had 11 catches for 224 yards and one touchdown in 10 games (one start). In his five years in the NFL, he caught 62 of 143 targets for 957 yards and 11 scores in 37 games (21 starts). Ross will be a long shot to make the Eagles' active roster in 2024, let alone be fantasy relevant.
From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos acquired defensive end John Franklin-Myers from the New York Jets on Saturday in exchange for a sixth-round pick in 2026, according to sources. It's the second trade these two teams have pulled off in the last week, with the Jets also sending former first-round quarterback Zach Wilson to Denver. Franklin-Myers, a former fourth-rounder by the Los Angeles Rams in 2018 out of Stephen F. Austin, started 52 games for the Jets in the last four seasons and racked up 56 solo tackles, 17.5 sacks, 21 tackles for loss, 61 QB hits, one interception, seven passes defended, a forced fumble and two fumble recoveries in that span. The 27-year-old should immediately become a starting edge rusher for the Broncos in 2024, but he won't be on the IDP fantasy radar with a career-high six-sack season coming back in 2021.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke said on Saturday that the team is picking up the fifth-year option for quarterback Trevor Lawrence and running back Travis Etienne Jr. It's no surprise that the Jags will pick up the options for the former Clemson teammates with the deadline to do so coming next Thursday. The 24-year-old Lawrence has been given even more weapons in Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas after Calvin Ridley left in free agency this offseason. Injuries hurt Lawrence in the second half of 2023, and with better health in 2024, he could easily rebound as a strong midrange QB1 for fantasy. Etienne has rushed for 1,000 yards in each of his first two NFL seasons while also catching 93 total passes for 792 yards. Tank Bigsby could be a thorn in his side as he gets more involved in the backfield, but Etienne is still an attractive fantasy RB in an offense that could be even more explosive this year.
From RotoBaller
Former Detroit Lions wide receiver Quintez Cephus, who was reinstated last week after being suspended for all of last season for violating the NFL's gambling policies, reached an undisclosed agreement with the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, according to his agents. The 26-year-old former fifth-round pick (166th overall) by the Lions in 2020 out of Wisconsin has a total of 37 receptions on 60 targets for 568 yards and four touchdowns in 22 games (six starts) in his three seasons in the league. The Bills are notably lacking receiver depth after trading Stefon Diggs to the Texans and losing Gabe Davis in free agency this offseason, so Cephus will have a chance to carve out a spot as receiving depth in Buffalo this summer in training camp. His best season came in his rookie year in 2020, when he caught 20 of 35 targets for 349 yards and two touchdowns in 13 games (two starts).
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Miami Dolphins drafted Virginia wide receiver Malik Washington in the sixth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Washington fell all the way down into round six before being scooped up by the Miami Dolphins. It was a disappointing development for a player who looked like he could be on the rise. Washington is going to need to make some quick waves in order to make the final roster and looks like a late round dart throw in rookie drafts this off-season.
