Running back Strength of Schedule
Mon May 19 8:51am CT
By JEFF PAUR @jeffpaur
Sr Fantasy Writer
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
|
RB SOS |
|
1. |
Baltimore |
359.12 |
2. |
Detroit |
361.44 |
3. |
Washington |
363.13 |
4. |
Chicago |
363.15 |
5. |
Los Angeles Chargers |
364.99 |
6. |
Las Vegas |
365.23 |
7. |
Buffalo |
365.36 |
8. |
Denver |
365.76 |
9. |
Minnesota |
365.95 |
10. |
Pittsburgh |
366.19 |
11. |
New York Giants |
366.33 |
12. |
Cincinnati |
368.36 |
13. |
Kansas City |
370.96 |
14. |
Dallas |
371.06 |
15. |
Green Bay |
371.22 |
16. |
Philadelphia |
374.34 |
17. |
Cleveland |
375.65 |
18. |
Indianapolis |
376.77 |
19. |
Tennessee |
380.94 |
20. |
Jacksonville |
382.3 |
21. |
Miami |
385.28 |
22. |
New England |
385.90 |
23. |
Houston |
388.39 |
24. |
Los Angeles Rams |
389.64 |
25. |
New York Jets |
392.14 |
26. |
Carolina |
392.3 |
27. |
Tampa Bay |
394.26 |
28. |
Seattle |
394.40 |
29. |
San Francisco |
395.91 |
30. |
Arizona |
397.31 |
31. |
Atlanta |
402.24 |
32. |
New Orleans |
404.73 |
The Saints have the easiest fantasy schedule for running backs this season. This is great news for Alvin Kamara, who could have a big season if he can stay healthy. New Orleans has plenty of questions at quarterback after the retirement of Derek Carr. Kamara could be the focal point of new head coach Kellen Moore’s offense. He could get a huge workload with a favorable schedule.
Bijan Robinson had a huge season last year and seems setup for more success this year. He gets the second most favorable schedule. You can make a strong case for Robinson to be the top pick in this year’s draft and a great schedule helps that case even more.
The Cardinals, 49ers and Seahawks round out the top five most favorable schedules for running backs. James Conner is getting older but continues to be the lead back for the Cardinals and produced a solid season last year. He could be setup for more of the same this year.
Christian McCaffrey is a huge injury risk but might have the highest ceiling of any running back. He is the ultimate boom-or-bust pick. And you have to love seeing the easy schedule for him. He might be worth rolling the dice on this season.
Kenneth Walker gets a new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak calling plays for him this year. Kubiak has a history of producing some big-time fantasy back. This is great news for Walker as is his very favorable schedule. He might have a career-best season.
You never want to go against Derrick Henry but having the toughest schedule for running backs is a little concerning. Plus, he is another year older with a ton of carries under his belt. We would still expect plenty of success from Henry but he might not be able to repeat last year’s huge season.
The Lions have arguably the top rushing offense in football but that will be put to the test this year with the second toughest schedule for running backs. Jahmyr Gibbs is one of the top fantasy backs in the game right now and will be hard to slow no matter the opponent. You do have to worry a little about this schedule, though, especially with the Lions having a new offensive coordinator calling plays. Maybe the run offense won’t be quite as potent as last year.
The Commanders, Bears and Chargers also have top five most challenging schedules for running backs. Washington doesn’t have the most potent rushing attack to begin with, so going with any of their backs on your fantasy roster might not be a risk worth taking.
Chicago seems setup for a better season running the ball with Ben Johnson now calling plays, but there remain questions about their running backs. Is D’Andre Swift their clear top option and can he take his game to a new level? The Bears options at running back are a little scary for fantasy owners right now.
The Chargers like to run the ball and have two new backs leading the backfield, but both could carry a little risk because of a tough schedule. Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris have some real potential in this offense, but you have to wonder how consistent they might be splitting carries and playing a lot of challenging rush defense.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 15-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big-money contests.
|
RB PLAYOFF SOS |
|
1. |
Los Angeles Chargers |
333.27 |
2. |
Pittsburgh |
336.3 |
3. |
Buffalo |
339.4 |
4. |
Las Vegas |
340 |
5. |
Dallas |
345.03 |
6. |
Detroit |
345.03 |
7. |
Miami |
355.9 |
8. |
Arizona |
356.17 |
9. |
Los Angeles Rams |
357.73 |
10. |
New York Giants |
364.3 |
11. |
Washington |
367.6 |
12. |
Kansas City |
369.32 |
13. |
New England |
371 |
14. |
Atlanta |
372.2 |
15. |
Cincinnati |
372.33 |
16. |
Green Bay |
374.93 |
17. |
Houston |
377.63 |
18. |
Denver |
377.77 |
19. |
Chicago |
379.7 |
20. |
Minnesota |
379.8 |
21. |
Jacksonville |
380.27 |
22. |
Carolina |
381.17 |
23. |
Tennessee |
381.23 |
24. |
Philadelphia |
396.73 |
25. |
Baltimore |
397.93 |
26. |
Cleveland |
400.1 |
27. |
San Francisco |
417.58 |
28. |
Tampa Bay |
419.6 |
29. |
Indianapolis |
421 |
30. |
New Orleans |
429.35 |
31. |
Seattle |
429.73 |
32. |
New York Jets |
430.63 |
The Seahawks and Saints are two teams that make both the easiest schedule lists. This is great news for anyone really looking at grabbing Kamara and Walker this season. These guys could end up being difference makers for fantasy owners.
The Jets actually have the most favorable playoff schedule. There was talk this offseason that the team might try to trade Breece Hall, but that didn’t happen. As long as he is around, Hall will lead the backfield and get a lot of work. He could produce big down the stretch this year.
The Colts and Bucs also have top-five favorable schedules for the playoffs. Bucky Irving had a breakout rookie season and will start from day one this year. He also has a pretty easy overall schedule, making him a very attractive option for fantasy teams.
And Jonathan Taylor continues to lead the Colts backfield and could get a ton of work once again in an offense that might be a little run heavy. He gets overlooked at times for some reason, but Taylor remains one of the best in the game and could be a huge factor in the fantasy playoffs.
The Chargers are the only team with unfavorable schedules for both the entire season and the playoffs. Los Angeles actually has the hardest schedule for the playoffs. This is not good news for their split backfield this season. You might want to move these guys down your rankings a little more.
Pittsburgh has the second most challenging schedule for the playoffs. The Steelers are another team with a likely split backfield. Both Jaylen Warren and Kaleb Johnson could have some struggles in the big games for fantasy owners. Just something to keep in mind for draft day.
The Bills, Raiders and Cowboys have top five tough schedules during the playoffs. Dallas stands out on the list because they already have some question marks for running backs. None of their backs might be worth taking because of the uncertainty and challenging playoff schedule.
James Cook and Ashton Jeanty are both highly rated fantasy backs this year. We might not ding them too much in your rankings, though. The Bills have an elite offense and don’t get slowed by too many defenses. Expect more of the same from Cook this year. And Jeanty is setup for a huge workload in the Raiders offense, including in the passing game. This gives him a great weekly floor to produce even if he isn’t able to find a ton of room to run the ball.