TBL WEEK 5 PREVIEW — “THE HEAT CHECK WEEK”

As the calendar turns toward mid-season, contenders are separating from pretenders. The Rebels chase perfection, the Believers are scorching, and several 0-4 squads are already in “must-win” territory. Week 5 isn’t just about points — it’s about identity.

Believers (3-1) vs Goats (1-3)

“The Redemption Tour Rolls On”

The Believers detonated in Week 4, racking up an eye-popping 477 TBL points behind the Fields-to-Jefferson connection. They look balanced, ruthless, and hungry. The Goats, on the other hand, are fighting to stay alive in the playoff race. Alvin Kamara’s workload is elite, and Ja’Marr Chase finally flashed his vintage form, but Sam Darnold must keep mistakes to zero if they hope to trade blows with a juggernaut.

QB: Justin Fields (BEL) vs Sam Darnold (GTS) → Edge: Believers
RBs: Kenneth Walker III (BEL) vs Alvin Kamara, Rico Dowdle, Rachaad White (GTS) → Edge: Goats
WRs: Justin Jefferson, Deebo Samuel, George Pickens, Garrett Wilson (BEL) vs Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Woody Marks, Tyquan Thornton (GTS) → Edge: Believers
TE: Jake Ferguson (BEL) vs Juwan Johnson (GTS) → Edge: Believers
DL: Jared Verse (BEL) vs Carl Granderson (GTS) → Edge: Believers
LBs: Zaire Franklin, Robert Spillane, Devin Bush (BEL) vs Bobby Wagner, Zack Baun, Ernest Jones (GTS) → Edge: Goats
DBs: Budda Baker, Paulson Adebo (BEL) vs Quentin Lake, Azeez Al-Shaair (GTS) → Edge: Believers

The Bottom Line: The Believers are peaking at the perfect time. Unless Kamara single-handedly engineers a miracle, expect another fireworks display.
Prediction: Believers 363 – Goats 298

Rebels (4-0) vs MadDawgz (2-2)

“Undefeated roll continues?”

The Rebels are the league’s blueprint: smart roster building, weekly consistency, and monstrous efficiency. Etienne and Cook have become the perfect one-two punch, while Goff keeps the offense moving without turnovers. The Dawgz are dynamic, led by rookie QB Jayden Daniels’ legs and Myles Garrett terrorizing opposing linemen. If Daniels can extend plays and Addison breaks loose, this could be closer than the records suggest.

QB: Jared Goff (REB) vs Jayden Daniels (MAD) → Edge: Rebels
RBs: Travis Etienne, James Cook, Ashton Jeanty (REB) vs Javonte Williams, TreVeyon Henderson (MAD) → Edge: Rebels
WRs: Chris Godwin, Jameson Williams (REB) vs Jordan Addison, Rashid Shaheed, Elic Ayomanor (MAD) → Edge: Even
TE: Dalton Schultz (REB) vs Mason Taylor (MAD) → Edge: Rebels
DL: Jalen Carter (REB) vs Myles Garrett, Danielle Hunter (MAD) → Edge: MadDawgz
LBs: Jack Campbell, Jack Sanborn (REB) vs Jihaad Campbell, Mack Wilson (MAD) → Edge: Rebels
DBs: Derwin James, Tyson Campbell, Andru Phillips (REB) vs Kerby Joseph (MAD) → Edge: Rebels

The Bottom Line: The Dawgz can hang early, but the Rebels’ IDP core closes the door late. This team’s discipline and depth scream “5-0.”
Prediction: Rebels 352 – MadDawgz 317

Arsenal (3-1) vs Kamikazes (2-2)

“Fire vs Flight”

Josh Allen’s heroics kept Arsenal in the hunt last week, but Jalen Hurts and Christian McCaffrey represent the ultimate TBL weapon combo. McCaffrey’s yard-tier scoring has been absurd — already surpassing 500 total yards in his last two outings — and Kyren Williams adds an RB2 punch that few can match. Arsenal’s defensive front, led by Brian Burns, must pressure Hurts or risk a track meet.

QB: Josh Allen (ARS) vs Jalen Hurts (KAM) → Edge: Even
RBs: Tony Pollard, J.K. Dobbins (ARS) vs Christian McCaffrey, Kyren Williams, Omarion Hampton (KAM) → Edge: Kamikazes
WRs: Courtland Sutton, Quentin Johnston, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (ARS) vs Jakobi Meyers, Tetairoa McMillan (KAM) → Edge: Arsenal
TE: Zach Ertz (ARS) vs Dalton Kincaid (KAM) → Edge: Kamikazes
DL: Brian Burns (ARS) vs Trey Hendrickson (KAM) → Edge: Arsenal
LBs: Pete Werner, Demetrius Knight Jr. (ARS) vs Okereke, Dodson, Singleton (KAM) → Edge: Kamikazes
DBs: Daxton Hill, Camryn Bynum, Jordan Battle (ARS) vs Nick Cross, Tykee Smith (KAM) → Edge: Kamikazes

The Bottom Line: Both teams will top 330 points, but McCaffrey’s TBL-specific scoring ceiling makes all the difference.
Prediction: Kamikazes 344 – Arsenal 331

Atoms (0-4) vs Mercenaries (0-4)

“The Desperation Bowl”

Someone’s drought ends here. The Atoms have the quarterback advantage with Justin Herbert, but the Mercenaries’ balance — Geno Smith, Nico Collins, and a nasty IDP unit — finally looks ready to deliver. For both teams, turnovers have been costly; whoever wins the turnover battle wins their first game.

QB: Justin Herbert (ATM) vs Geno Smith (MER) → Edge: Atoms
RBs: Nick Chubb, Cam Skattebo, Sean Tucker (ATM) vs Chuba Hubbard, Chris Rodriguez Jr. (MER) → Edge: Even
WRs: Christian Kirk, Marvin Mims (ATM) vs Nico Collins, Emeka Egbuka, Troy Franklin (MER) → Edge: Mercenaries
TE: Elijah Arroyo (ATM) vs Oronde Gadsden II (MER) → Edge: Even
DL: Chris Jones, Leonard Williams, Mykel Williams (ATM) vs Montez Sweat, Will McDonald IV (MER) → Edge: Mercenaries
LBs: Eric Wilson (ATM) vs Germaine Pratt, Christian Rozeboom (MER) → Edge: Mercenaries
DBs: L’Jarius Sneed, Sauce Gardner (ATM) vs Patrick Surtain II, Cooper DeJean (MER) → Edge: Mercenaries

The Bottom Line: Geno and Collins finally break through, lifting the Mercs to a sigh-of-relief victory.
Prediction: Mercenaries 303 – Atoms 272

RockStars (2-2) vs Dealers (3-1)

“The Consistency Test”

The Dealers don’t beat you — they drain you. Binder’s squad methodically dominates time of possession with Montgomery, Hall, and Achane chewing up yardage in bulk, while Nacua and St. Brown handle the aerial assault. The RockStars can be explosive when Dak Prescott and Ridley hit, but defensive lapses have buried them late in games.

QB: Dak Prescott (RCK) vs Cooper Rush (DLRS) → Edge: RockStars
RBs: Jahmyr Gibbs, Quinshon Judkins (RCK) vs Montgomery, Breece Hall, Devon Achane (DLRS) → Edge: Dealers
WRs: Calvin Ridley, Isaac TeSlaa, Kyle Williams (RCK) vs Amon-Ra St. Brown, Puka Nacua (DLRS) → Edge: Dealers
TE: Trey McBride (RCK) vs T.J. Hockenson (DLRS) → Edge: Dealers
DL: Jeffery Simmons (RCK) vs Aidan Hutchinson (DLRS) → Edge: Dealers
LBs: Devin White, Cedric Gray, Jamien Sherwood (RCK) vs Tremaine Edmunds, Cody Barton, Nick Bolton (DLRS) → Edge: Dealers
DBs: Talanoa Hufanga (RCK) vs Jevon Holland, Xavier McKinney (DLRS) → Edge: Dealers

The Bottom Line: RockStars will land some shots, but the Dealers’ efficiency and IDP depth will overwhelm late.
Prediction: Dealers 348 – RockStars 289

Warlords (0-4) vs Conquerors (2-2)

“Searching for a Pulse”

The Warlords nearly pulled an upset last week behind Mac Jones’ best outing of the year. Still, the Conquerors’ defense — led by Quinnen Williams and Brian Branch — thrives on mistakes, and Jones has provided plenty. Stafford’s steady play and A.J. Brown’s dominance make Conquerors dangerous in every phase.

QB: Mac Jones (WL) vs Matthew Stafford (CNQ) → Edge: Conquerors
RBs: Zach Charbonnet, RJ Harvey (WL) vs Chase Brown, Isiah Pacheco (CNQ) → Edge: Conquerors
WRs: Kendrick Bourne, Brian Thomas Jr. (WL) vs A.J. Brown, Rashod Bateman, Xavier Worthy (CNQ) → Edge: Conquerors
TE: Darren Waller, Jake Tonges (WL) vs Hunter Henry (CNQ) → Edge: Conquerors
DL: Jordan Davis (WL) vs Quinnen Williams (CNQ) → Edge: Conquerors
LBs: Devin Lloyd, Ivan Pace Jr., Carson Schwesinger (WL) vs Henry To’oTo’o, Payton Wilson (CNQ) → Edge: Even
DBs: Kamren Curl, Isaiah Rodgers (WL) vs Brian Branch, Amani Hooker (CNQ) → Edge: Conquerors

The Bottom Line: Warlords improve but still fall short as Stafford’s steady hand guides the Conquerors past 300 points again.
Prediction: Conquerors 312 – Warlords 276

Yinzers (3-1) vs Monarchs (3-1)

“Game of the Week — Titans of the OFC”

Two heavyweights collide in what feels like a playoff preview. The Yinzers are usually fueled by Lamar Jackson’s creativity, but he's been ruled out this week so they will depend on Jonathan Taylor’s resurgence, while the Monarchs field perhaps the most complete lineup in TBL — Barkley, Henry, Kelce, and Adams are capable of dropping 350 combined points alone. Expect wild swings and monster stat lines.

QB: Drake Maye (YNZ) vs Bo Nix (MON) → Edge: Monarchs
RBs: Jonathan Taylor (YNZ) vs Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry (MON) → Edge: Monarchs
WRs: Stefon Diggs, Michael Pittman Jr., Wan’Dale Robinson, Tre Tucker (YNZ) vs Davante Adams, Marvin Harrison Jr., Marquise Brown (MON) → Edge: Monarchs
TE: Sam LaPorta (YNZ) vs Travis Kelce (MON) → Edge: Monarchs
DL: Maxx Crosby, Byron Young (YNZ) vs Dexter Lawrence (MON) → Edge: Yinzers
LBs: Alex Anzalone, Nik Bonitto, Drue Tranquill (YNZ) vs Fred Warner, Demario Davis, Jordyn Brooks (MON) → Edge: Monarchs
DBs: Derek Stingley Jr., Devon Witherspoon, Tariq Woolen (YNZ) vs Antoine Winfield Jr. (MON) → Edge: Even

The Bottom Line: In true TBL style, expect a 700-point spectacle. The Yinzers will push late, but the Monarchs’ veteran poise prevails.
Prediction: Monarchs 377 – Yinzers 354

What’s at Stake

• Rebels (4-0): Chasing the league’s first 5-0 start since 2019.

• Believers (3-1): Hottest team in TBL, pushing for #1 seed.

• Dealers (3-1): AFC control within reach with another 300+ output.

• Monarchs (3-1) vs Yinzers (3-1): Game of the Week and potential tiebreaker for the OFC crown.

• Atoms/Mercenaries/Warlords: All fighting to avoid elimination from playoff math.

• Kamikazes (2-2): Win and they rejoin the elite; lose and they’re back in the pack.