THE BIG LEAGUE WEEKLY PREVIEW – WEEK 11

“Rumbling, bumbling, stumbling into the playoff chase!”

Week 10 shook the league like a snow globe in Buffalo. The Yinzers and Dealers treated us to an instant classic, the Monarchs survived a Believer barrage, the Rebels couldn’t keep pace with Arsenal’s aerial assault, and the Kamikazes reminded everyone why they’re a weekly explosion waiting to happen. Now Week 11 arrives with two conferences on fire, only three playoff spots per side, and a cluster of 6–4 teams fighting like it’s January.

It’s stretch drive time, folks — buckle up.

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Seven games.
Thirteen contenders and pretenders.
Massive tiebreakers.
And a playoff matrix that shifts with every snap.

Let’s… GO!

The dust from Week 10 is still hanging in the air like smoke after a fireworks finale. Some teams went boom, others went bust, and now the margin for error is paper thin. With playoffs kicking off in Week 14 and only three teams per conference punching a ticket, Week 11 feels less like a midseason slate and more like a pre-playoff elimination round.

Records are tight. Tempers are rising. Lineups are locking in.
Let’s rumble through the seven games that will shape the stretch run.

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â­ GAME OF THE WEEK

Arsenal (8–2, AFC) vs Yinzers (7–3, OFC)

“Titans collide. Momentum vs mastery.”

Storyline

This is the kind of cross-conference showdown that tilts the entire league narrative. Arsenal have spent most of the season perched atop the AFC, riding the rocket arm and improvisational magic of Josh Allen. Their offense can erase deficits in a heartbeat, but the defense has started to show just enough vulnerability to keep things interesting.

The Yinzers roll into Week 11 with all the swagger of a team that believes it belongs at the top of the OFC. Drake Maye has given them stability and upside at quarterback, Travis Etienne adds home-run speed out of the backfield, and the wideout trio of Stefon Diggs, DJ Moore, and Wan’Dale Robinson is nightmare fuel for defensive coordinators. Both teams know this isn’t just about one win—it’s about sending a message to the rest of the league.

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Position-by-Position Breakdown

QB

• Arsenal: Josh Allen

• Yinzers: Drake Maye
  Edge: Arsenal

RBs

• Arsenal: Tony Pollard

• Yinzers: Travis Etienne
  Edge: Even

WRs

• Arsenal: Ladd McConkey, DeVonta Smith, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

• Yinzers: Stefon Diggs, DJ Moore, Wan’Dale Robinson
  Edge: Yinzers

TE

• Arsenal: George Kittle

• Yinzers: David Njoku
  Edge: Arsenal

DL

• Arsenal: Brian Burns

• Yinzers: Maxx Crosby, Byron Young
  Edge: Yinzers

LBs

• Arsenal: Demetrius Knight Jr., Noah Sewell, T.J. Watt

• Yinzers: Alex Anzalone, Nik Bonitto, Teddye Buchanan
  Edge: Yinzers

DBs

• Arsenal: Jordan Battle, Malaki Starks

• Yinzers: Trent McDuffie, Tyrique Stevenson
  Edge: Yinzers

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Bottom Line

Arsenal have the single biggest trump card in Josh Allen, but the Yinzers counter with better balance and more depth across the board. Expect Arsenal to land some haymakers through the air, but the Yinzers’ pass rush and secondary are built to survive shootouts. If this comes down to depth and defensive stops, the edge swings to the OFC side of the bracket.

Prediction

Yinzers 358 – Arsenal 331

What’s at Stake

• Arsenal: A win keeps them firmly in control of the AFC race; a loss drags them back toward the Dealers/RockStars/Goats pack.

• Yinzers: A win reinforces their claim as OFC favorite and nudges them closer to the conference’s top seed.

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Believers (6–4, OFC) vs Monarchs (7–3, OFC)

“A heavyweight OFC clash with tiebreakers written all over it.”

Storyline

If you’re drawing up a classic OFC showdown, this is it. The Believers walk onto the field with a fireworks stand: Bijan Robinson at running back, Justin Jefferson, Drake London, and George Pickens out wide, and a tight end room of Jake Ferguson and Dallas Goedert that can out-produce full receiving corps. They’re not just capable of big weeks; they specialize in them.

The Monarchs, however, are built like a playoff battering ram. Bo Nix keeps the chains moving, Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry pound defenses into submission, and Davante Adams plus Travis Kelce give them two Hall-of-Fame caliber outlets when drives get tough. This one feels less like a game and more like a referendum on which style wins deep in November—explosion or control.

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Position-by-Position Breakdown

QB

• Believers: Joe Flacco

• Monarchs: Bo Nix
  Edge: Monarchs

RBs

• Believers: Bijan Robinson

• Monarchs: Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry
  Edge: Monarchs

WRs

• Believers: Justin Jefferson, Drake London, George Pickens

• Monarchs: Davante Adams, Marquise Brown, Christian Watson
  Edge: Believers

TE

• Believers: Jake Ferguson, Dallas Goedert

• Monarchs: Travis Kelce
  Edge: Believers (depth)

DL

• Believers: Jared Verse

• Monarchs: Cameron Heyward, Dexter Lawrence
  Edge: Monarchs

LBs

• Believers: Devin Bush, Edgerrin Cooper, Robert Spillane

• Monarchs: Jordyn Brooks, Patrick Queen, Terrel Bernard
  Edge: Monarchs

DBs

• Believers: DaRon Bland, Nick Emmanwori

• Monarchs: Antoine Winfield Jr., Javon Bullard
  Edge: Even

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Bottom Line

The Believers can hit you with 70-yard haymakers from anywhere on the field, but the Monarchs have the kind of grind-you-down, four-quarter formula that tends to win when the weather gets cold and the games get tight. If the Monarchs’ defensive front can keep Bijan from taking over, their RB combo and elite defensive spine should carry the day.

Prediction

Monarchs 347 – Believers 324

What’s at Stake

• Monarchs: A win pushes them closer to an OFC playoff lock and keeps them in the hunt for the top seed.

• Believers: A loss throws them right into the mix with the Kamikazes and Rebels for what might end up as a single remaining playoff spot.

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Rebels (4–6, OFC) vs Kamikazes (6–4, OFC)

“The Rebels’ season on the line; the Kamikazes’ grip on a playoff spot under siege.”

Storyline

For the Rebels, this isn’t just “a big game.” This is the crossroads. Fall to 4–7, and the path to the OFC’s three playoff spots turns from steep to nearly vertical. Stay within a game of the pack, and suddenly the last three weeks become must-watch television.

The Kamikazes arrive with one of the nastiest ground games in the league. Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs, and Kyren Williams can control tempo, clock, and scoreboard in one swoop. With Jalen Hurts orchestrating and weapons like Tee Higgins and Quentin Johnston outside, they can win shootouts or slogs. But the Rebels have their own trump cards: Zay Flowers, Rome Odunze, Jameson Williams, and Brock Bowers give them a terrifying aerial arsenal, while a defensive backbone of Jalen Carter, Jack Campbell, Quincy Williams, Christian Gonzalez, and Derwin James can disrupt even the best offenses when they’re dialed in.

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Position-by-Position Breakdown

QB

• Rebels: Jared Goff

• Kamikazes: Jalen Hurts
  Edge: Kamikazes

RBs

• Rebels: James Cook, Ashton Jeanty

• Kamikazes: Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs, Kyren Williams
  Edge: Kamikazes

WRs

• Rebels: Zay Flowers, Rome Odunze, Jameson Williams

• Kamikazes: Tee Higgins, Quentin Johnston
  Edge: Rebels

TE

• Rebels: Brock Bowers

• Kamikazes: Tyler Higbee
  Edge: Rebels

DL

• Rebels: Jalen Carter

• Kamikazes: Micah Parsons
  Edge: Kamikazes

LBs

• Rebels: Jack Campbell, Quincy Williams

• Kamikazes: Tatum Bethune, Barrett Carter, Tyrel Dodson, Bobby Okereke
  Edge: Kamikazes (depth)

DBs

• Rebels: Christian Gonzalez, Derwin James, Kamari Lassiter

• Kamikazes: Tykee Smith
  Edge: Rebels

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Bottom Line

This game has all the makings of a classic: high-powered offenses, star-studded defenses, and genuine postseason stakes. The Kamikazes are a little more complete, but the Rebels have matchup advantages at WR, TE, and DB that can turn drives into fireworks. If Goff stays clean and Bowers owns the middle of the field, the upset is absolutely in play.

Prediction

Rebels 341 – Kamikazes 333

What’s at Stake

• Rebels: A win keeps the season alive and sets up a frantic sprint to Week 14.

• Kamikazes: A loss could drop them into a three-way logjam with the Believers and Rebels for the final OFC berth.

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Goats (6–4, AFC) vs MadDawgz (5–5, AFC)

“An AFC wild-card battleground.”

Storyline

The Goats are one of those teams no one wants to see in a one-and-done scenario. Ja’Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb give them two bona fide alpha receivers, Rico Dowdle and Woody Marks bring juice to the run game, and Cade Otton offers steady production at tight end. On defense, a loaded LB room with Zack Baun, Foyesade Oluokun, Roquan Smith, and Bobby Wagner can erase mistakes.

The MadDawgz counter with heart, chaos, and just enough star power to be dangerous. Baker Mayfield has rediscovered his swagger, TreVeyon Henderson and Kimani Vidal bring explosive potential out of the backfield, Javonte Williams adds power, and Jordan Addison plus Rashid Shaheed can make secondaries pay for any missteps. With Myles Garrett wrecking pockets on defense, the Dawgz have the tools to engineer another upset.

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Position-by-Position Breakdown

QB

• Goats: Sam Darnold

• MadDawgz: Baker Mayfield
  Edge: MadDawgz

RBs

• Goats: Rico Dowdle, Aaron Jones, Woody Marks

• MadDawgz: TreVeyon Henderson, Kimani Vidal, Javonte Williams
  Edge: Goats

WRs

• Goats: Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb

• MadDawgz: Jordan Addison, Rashid Shaheed
  Edge: Goats (huge)

TE

• Goats: Cade Otton

• MadDawgz: Mason Taylor
  Edge: Goats

DL

• Goats: Josh Sweat

• MadDawgz: Myles Garrett
  Edge: Even (stars on both sides)

LBs

• Goats: Zack Baun, Foyesade Oluokun, Roquan Smith, Bobby Wagner

• MadDawgz: Kaden Elliss, Quay Walker, Dee Winters
  Edge: Goats

DBs

• Goats: Quentin Lake, Tyrique Stevenson

• MadDawgz: Brandon Jones, Xavier Watts
  Edge: Even

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Bottom Line

The Dawgz can absolutely punch above their record, but this matchup tilts heavily toward the Goats’ elite wideouts and linebackers. If they avoid turnovers and let Chase and Lamb dictate coverage, the Goats should control both the scoreboard and the playoff math.

Prediction

Goats 326 – MadDawgz 291

What’s at Stake

• Goats: A win keeps them in the thick of AFC playoff seeding and potentially nudges them toward the #3 spot.

• MadDawgz: A loss drops them under .500 and makes every remaining game essentially an elimination scenario.

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RockStars (6–4, AFC) vs Conquerors (4–6, AFC)

“RockStars fight to stay in the bracket; Conquerors fight to stay alive.”

Storyline

The RockStars feel like the AFC’s “boom or bust” squad. When everything is clicking, Dak Prescott distributes the ball like a point guard, Jahmyr Gibbs, Quinshon Judkins, and D’Andre Swift churn out yards by the chunk, and Trey McBride looks like a future superstar at tight end.

The Conquerors sit at 4–6 with their backs against the wall. Matthew Stafford still has the arm to keep them in games, Chase Brown and Jaylen Warren bring juice to the backfield, and A.J. Brown plus Romeo Doubs give them credible outside threats. But at 4–6, moral victories don’t mean anything—this is a must-win.

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Position-by-Position Breakdown

QB: Even (Prescott vs Stafford)
RBs: RockStars
WRs: Conquerors
TE: RockStars (McBride advantage)
DL: Conquerors (Quinnen Williams impact)
LBs: RockStars (deeper rotation)
DBs: Conquerors (with Brian Branch and Cole Bishop in the mix)

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Bottom Line

Expect the Conquerors to swing hard early, but the RockStars’ depth—especially at RB and TE—should start to tell as the game wears on. If McBride owns the middle and Gibbs/Swift control the pace, the RockStars are in position to close this one out and keep their wildcard ticket in hand.

Prediction

RockStars 334 – Conquerors 301

What’s at Stake

• RockStars: A win stabilizes their place in the AFC playoff picture and keeps pressure on Arsenal and Dealers.

• Conquerors: A loss likely pushes them into “need to win out and get help” territory.

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Dealers (7–3, AFC) vs Atoms (2–8, OFC)

“A contender tune-up with trap-game potential.”

Storyline

On paper, it’s lopsided. The Dealers have one of the most complete offenses in the league: Jordan Love at QB, two dynamic backs in Breece Hall and Devon Achane, and a loaded WR room featuring names like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Puka Nacua, and Jaylen Waddle. They’re firmly in the AFC contender tier and know seeding matters.

The Atoms haven’t had many breaks, but they still have enough talent—especially at quarterback and in the secondary—to make life miserable for a heavy favorite that comes in flat. If they can force a couple of mistakes and turn this into a weird, low-tempo game, they have a puncher’s chance at playing spoiler.

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Position-by-Position Snapshot

Every positional unit leans Dealers; Atoms need chaos, turnovers, and red-zone magic.

Prediction

Dealers 362 – Atoms 241

What’s at Stake

• Dealers: A win keeps them on pace with Arsenal and ahead of the RockStars/Goats tier.

• Atoms: Pride, development, and the chance to ruin someone else’s season.

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Warlords (1–9, OFC) vs Mercenaries (1–9, AFC)

“The Basement Bowl.”

Storyline

Both teams come in at 1–9, but this isn’t meaningless. Players are fighting for future roles, bragging rights matter, and nobody wants to finish at the bottom. The Warlords bring some intriguing young pieces on both sides of the ball; the Mercenaries have flashes of talent, particularly on the defensive front and at wide receiver.

The question isn’t “who’s elite?” It’s “who makes fewer back-breaking mistakes?”

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Prediction

Mercenaries 288 – Warlords 244

What’s at Stake

Draft position. Pride. And the right to say, “At least we weren’t last.”

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Wrap-Up

Week 11 isn’t just another square on the schedule; it’s the opening act of the playoff race. The Yinzers and Arsenal could change the top of both conferences. The Believers, Monarchs, Rebels, and Kamikazes are circling the same few OFC seats. The Goats, RockStars, MadDawgz, and Conquerors are locked in an AFC bar fight for survival.

By the time the dust settles, some teams will be cruising toward Week 14 with confidence. Others? They’ll be staring straight at the edge of the cliff.

Either way, buckle up.
Week 11 is where The Big League stops pretending and starts deciding.

Playoff Probability Matrix (Entering Week 11)

Here’s a narrative-friendly snapshot of where things roughly stand going into Week 11. These are illustrative, not official, but they capture the pressure each contender is feeling:

• Top AFC teams (Arsenal, Dealers, RockStars, Goats) sit in the 60–90% playoff-odds band depending on how Week 11 goes.

• Mid-tier AFC squads like the MadDawgz and Conquerors hover between 20–40%, with massive swings possible based on this week’s outcomes.

• In the OFC, the Yinzers and Monarchs sit comfortably in the 80–90% range, while the Believers and Kamikazes live in the volatile 40–70% zone.

• The Rebels, at 4–6, are in the 20% or less range—but a Week 11 win could nearly double their chances.

• Atoms and Warlords? Let’s just say we’re under 5% and point toward “playing spoiler” season.

You can treat this week as the fork in the road:
Win, and your number jumps.
Lose, and every remaining game becomes must-win.

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PLAYOFF MATRIX

Below is the TBL Week 11 Playoff Probability Matrix, illustrating each team’s approximate postseason odds before and after their Week 11 matchup, based on record, tiebreakers, and schedule difficulty.

Team	Conference	Before W11	If Win	If Lose
Arsenal (8–2)	AFC	89%	95%	72%
Dealers (7–3)	AFC	78%	88%	59%
RockStars (6–4)	AFC	62%	81%	34%
Goats (6–4)	AFC	61%	80%	33%
MadDawgz (5–5)	AFC	39%	58%	20%
Conquerors (4–6)	AFC	18%	38%	7%
Mercenaries (1–9)	AFC	1%	3%	<1%
Yinzers (7–3)	OFC	87%	95%	66%
Monarchs (7–3)	OFC	83%	92%	58%
Believers (6–4)	OFC	68%	84%	41%
Kamikazes (6–4)	OFC	56%	76%	29%
Rebels (4–6)	OFC	22%	41%	4%
Atoms (2–8)	OFC	<1%	2%	<1%
Warlords (1–9)	OFC	<1%	<1%	<1%

PLAYOFF MATRIX EXPLANATION 

“What the numbers mean — and why Week 11 is a season-changer.”

The TBL playoff landscape is shaping into the most dramatic finish in years. With only three playoff spots available per conference, Week 11’s results will swing postseason odds more drastically than at any point this season.

In the AFC, Arsenal still leads the pack, but the Dealers, RockStars, MadDawgz, and Goats are all fighting for the final two spots. A win this week gives any of them a playoff probability jump of 15–20%. A loss can cut their odds in half.

The OFC is even more chaotic. The Yinzers and Monarchs sit comfortably at the top, but the next three teams—Believers, Kamikazes, and Rebels are locked in an unpredictable scramble for the final berth. This week’s games will create (or destroy) tiebreakers that will determine the playoff picture all the way through Week 14.

If you’re a fringe team — Rebels, Kamikazes, Believers, MadDawgz, Goats — Week 11 is the fork in the road.

Win, and the dream lives.
Lose, and winter comes early.

FINAL PLAYOFF OUTLOOK (if predictions are correct)

(OFC)

1. Yinzers (8–3)

2. Monarchs (8–3)

3. Believers (6–5)

4. Kamikazes (6–5)

5. Rebels (5–6 — alive)

(AFC)

1. Arsenal (8–3)

2. Dealers (8–3)

3. RockStars (7–4)

4. Goats (7–4)

5. MadDawgz (5–6 — must win out)