PLAYOFFS?!

The lights are brighter, the tension is thicker, and the stakes?
Oh, they’re officially sky-high, my friend.

As Week 11 fades into the rearview mirror, the Retro TBL has entered that magical, maddening stretch where legends rise, pretenders crumble, and every GM suddenly becomes a part-time mathematician calculating tiebreakers like they’re decoding the Enigma machine. With two weeks left, seven teams in each conference still breathing, and the spirit of Jim Mora echoing across the league…

PLAYOFFS?!
Yes, Jim. Playoffs.
And they’re closer—and wilder—than ever.

Strap in. The chase is on!.

OFC – “The Gauntlet”

Believers (7–4, projected 8–5)
The Believers are living up to their name. Sitting atop the OFC with the most points scored in the conference, they get the Warlords in Week 12 before a heavyweight showdown with the Dealers. A split (8–5) is the most probable outcome, and with their PF edge, that’s usually enough to bring home the #1 seed and the bye. 

Yinzers (7–4, projected 8–5)
From Week 1, the Yinzers have been fireworks: Jackson and Maye have been dealing! TreVeyon Henderson running angry, and Amon-Ra St. Brown body-bagging secondaries. The path is clear: Mercenaries, then Goats. They’re heavily favored in Week 12 and slightly favored to split over the final two. We pencil them in at 8–5 and squarely in the dance—most likely as the #2 seed, though a big finish plus some Believers stumbles could still shake that up.

Monarchs (7–4, projected 8–5)
The Monarchs are built like a playoff team but don’t have the margin for error. They draw the Dealers in Week 12 and the Conquerors in Week 13. The math says they split, land at 8–5, and grab the #3 seed if tiebreaks fall as expected. They could steal a bye if they upset Dealers and run the table, but odds lean toward a 1–1 finish and a road game on Wild Card weekend.

Kamikazes (6–5, projected 7–6)
If there’s a chaos agent in this conference, it’s the Kamikazes. They’ve put up 400+ like it’s nothing and dragged the scoreboard operator into therapy. But the schedule is no joke: Goats, then MadDawgz—two experienced, high-output AFC squads. The most realistic path is a split to finish 7–6, which keeps them in the wildcard conversation but makes tiebreakers everything.

Rebels (5–6, projected 7–6)
The Rebels have been the league’s rollercoaster: scorching hot early, then a midseason skid, then a massive Week 11 win over the Kamikazes. The league may have accidentally handed them the “cheat code” schedule to finish: Atoms and Warlords. At 7–6, they become the nightmare wildcard candidate no one wants to see, praying for one more Kamikazes stumble.

Atoms & Warlords (2–9, both projected 2–11)
Mathematically alive? Barely. Realistically? They’re the spoiler squads now. Atoms get the Rebels and Arsenal. Warlords get Believers and Rebels. The odds say they finish 2–11, but if either of them steals one, they might be the reason someone stays home in January.

OFC Big Picture:

• We project Believers, Yinzers, Monarchs as the three playoff teams, all at or around 8–5, with Believers grabbing the bye.

• Kamikazes and Rebels both finish 7–6 in our model—one of them could absolutely bust up the projections with a Week 12 or 13 upset.

OFC Playoff Matrix – With Predicted Final Records

OFC Standings After Week 11

1. Believers 7–4

2. Yinzers 7–4

3. Monarchs 7–4

4. Kamikazes 6–5

5. Rebels 5–6

6. Atoms 2–9

7. Warlords 2–9

Remaining Schedules

• Believers: vs Warlords, vs Dealers

• Yinzers: vs Mercenaries, vs Goats

• Monarchs: vs Dealers, vs Conquerors

• Kamikazes: vs Goats, vs MadDawgz

• Rebels: vs Atoms, vs Warlords

• Atoms: vs Rebels, vs Arsenal

• Warlords: vs Believers, vs Rebels

OFC Matrix

*Playoff odds are qualitative estimates based on record, PF, and remaining opponents, not a full Monte Carlo sim.

OFC Projected Finish / Seeds

Given those projections and PF tiebreakers:

• Believers (projected 8–5, highest OFC PF) → #1 seed, bye

• Yinzers (8–5) → likely #2 seed

• Monarchs (8–5) → likely #3 seed

• Kamikazes and Rebels both at 7–6 in this projection, fighting but on the outside without tiebreak help.

AFC – “Arsenal and the Arms Race”

Arsenal (9–2, projected 11–2)
Arsenal has been a buzzsaw from Day One. They already have 9 wins, the points are there, and they finish with Conquerors and Atoms. That’s like giving Patrick Mahomes an empty practice field and asking him to hit stationary cones. Our model has them chalking up two more wins to finish 11–2, lock the #1 seed, and roll into the bye week as the team to beat.

Dealers (8–3, projected 9–4)
The Dealers are sitting on a mountain of points and swagger, but their late-season schedule is a problem: Monarchs and Believers, back-to-back OFC playoff contenders. This is where roster depth matters, and Dealers have it. We’re calling a split, landing them at 9–4 and almost certainly in, with an outside shot at a bye if Arsenal face-plants.

RockStars (7–4, projected 9–4)
If there’s a team built for late-season fireworks, it’s the RockStars. They get MadDawgz in a quasi-elimination game and then the Mercenaries, who’ve functionally already packed for the offseason. Our model likes RockStars to go 2–0, finishing 9–4 and probably snagging the #2 seed on tiebreakers.

MadDawgz (6–5, projected 6–7)
MadDawgz have hung around all year, but the runway is short and the schedule is cruel: RockStars, then Kamikazes. That’s two track meets against high-octane opponents. We’ve got them pegged to go 0–2 more often than not, finishing 6–7 with a narrow path that requires multiple upsets elsewhere.

Goats (6–5, projected 7–6)
The Goats are the definition of a bubble team—dangerous enough to beat anyone, inconsistent enough to lose to anyone. The problem: they draw Kamikazes and Yinzers to finish. We see them splitting those matchups, landing at 7–6, which in our current projection leaves them on the outside looking in—but any combination of RockStars or Dealers stumbles could drag them back into the picture.

Conquerors (4–7, projected 4–9) & Mercenaries (1–10, projected 1–12)
Both face double doses of contenders to close. Our projection has them winless the rest of the way. Their playoff hopes aren’t just on life support; the machine has been unplugged.

AFC Big Picture:

• Arsenal is effectively a lock for the bye at 11–2.

• Dealers and RockStars are heavy favorites to round out the three AFC spots.

• Goats and MadDawgz remain in the mix, but they’ll need to steal wins against teams who are also playing for their lives.

AFC Playoff Matrix – With Predicted Final Records

AFC Standings After Week 11

1. Arsenal 9–2

2. Dealers 8–3

3. RockStars 7–4

4. MadDawgz 6–5

5. Goats 6–5

6. Conquerors 4–7

7. Mercenaries 1–10

Remaining Schedules

• Arsenal: vs Conquerors, vs Atoms

• Dealers: vs Monarchs, vs Believers

• RockStars: vs MadDawgz, vs Mercenaries

• MadDawgz: vs RockStars, vs Kamikazes

• Goats: vs Kamikazes, vs Yinzers

• Conquerors: vs Arsenal, vs Monarchs

• Mercenaries: vs Yinzers, vs RockStars

AFC Matrix

AFC Projected Finish / Seeds

Using those predictions plus PF for tiebreaks:

• Arsenal: 11–2 → #1 seed, bye

• Dealers: 9–4

• RockStars: 9–4 (slightly higher PF than Dealers, so likely #2 with Dealers at #3 if tiebreaks follow PF)

• Goats at 7–6 and MadDawgz at 6–7 are the primary bubble teams in this projection.

Monte Carlo-Style Odds Grid 

I’m translating our game-by-game probabilities into a Monte Carlo-style summary think “if we simmed the last two weeks thousands of times with these win probabilities, what would happen?”

These are approximate, but they’re internally consistent with the records and projections above.

OFC Monte Carlo Grid 

Assumptions (high level):

• Believers/Yinzers/Monarchs: each favored in at least one of their two games.

• Kamikazes: roughly coin-flip in both.

• Rebels: strong favorite in both but still not 100%.

• Atoms/Warlords: big underdogs twice.

Interpretation:

• In a “10,000 sim” world, Believers/Yinzers/Monarchs are in most timelines.

• Kamikazes vs Rebels is truly volatile—Rebels have stronger odds of going 2–0, but Kamikazes have the record advantage now.

• Atoms and Warlords are, functionally, lottery tickets.

AFC Monte Carlo Grid (Approximate)

Assumptions (high level):

• Arsenal heavy favorite in both games.

• Dealers: roughly 50/50 in each of their last two.

• RockStars: modest favorite vs MadDawgz, huge favorite vs Mercenaries.

• Goats/MadDawgz: slight underdogs mostly, but with real upset equity.

• Conquerors/Mercenaries: long shots in any single game.

Interpretation:

• Arsenal is basically living in the bye week already.

• Dealers and RockStars are overwhelmingly likely to join them in the bracket.

• Goats and MadDawgz occupy that “chaotic wildcard” band where one upset swings the entire conference seed line.

If TBL has taught us anything this season, it’s that chaos is undefeated. With records tightening, schedules sharpening, and rosters firing at full throttle, the closing two weeks promise fireworks worthy of prime-time television.

Heroes will emerge. Hearts will break. Tiebreakers will confuse absolutely everyone.
And when the dust settles, only six will stand—three from each conference—with dreams of hoisting the TBL crown.

So grab your calculators, your lucky jerseys, and maybe a stress ball or two…
Because the road to the postseason is officially underway, and it’s shaping up to be one unforgettable ride.

Let the madness begin.