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The Big League (Retro Edition) Est. 2023
FFL: Week 11 | NFL: Week 11

Retro TBL Week 11 Preview- Includes Playoff Matrix

By Rebels Sun Nov 16 11:39am CT
Updated by Rebels Sun Nov 16 11:42am CT
Caption Below

Crunch Time Chaos

Retro TBL Week 11 Preview – “Crunch Time Chaos”

 

Week 11 arrives as the turning point of the Retro TBL season — the moment where pretenders get exposed, contenders sharpen their weapons, and bubble teams claw for air. With only three playoff spots in each conference, the margins have never been thinner. The LTC is a minefield, where one loss can drop a team from second to seventh in a heartbeat, while the PHC remains top-heavy, but the fight for the final seed is a full contact sport.

Every game this week pushes a team closer to glory or closer to the cliff.

Let’s dive in.

Atoms (5–5, LTC) vs Lions (8–2, PHC)

Storyline

This matchup represents the purest form of November pressure. The Atoms sit at the heart of the LTC wild-card chaos, where four teams are jockeying for two remaining playoff spots. A win here — against the top team in the PHC — would move the Atoms from “hopeful” to “dangerous,” and give them massive leverage in the standings. A loss drops them below .500 with only two games left.

The Lions? They’re the boss level. At 8–2, they are the PHC’s front-runner, owning the league’s highest point total and the most explosive offensive core in Retro TBL. They’re hunting the #1 seed and a bye, and they can’t slip now.

This is survival vs supremacy — two teams with everything to play for, but only one likely to get what they want.

QB

Atoms: Justin Herbert
Lions: Caleb Williams
Edge: Lions

RB

Atoms: Kyren Williams
Lions: Bijan Robinson
Edge: Lions

WR

Atoms: Calvin Ridley, Deebo Samuel, Jordan Addison
Lions: Rome Odunze, Chris Olave, Rashee Rice
Edge: Lions

TE

Atoms: Dallas Goedert, Dalton Schultz
Lions: Trey McBride, Theo Johnson
Edge: Lions

K

Atoms: Cameron Dicker
Lions: Cam Little
Edge: Atoms

DEF

Atoms: Cardinals D/ST
Lions: Texans D/ST
Edge: Lions

The Bottom Line

The Atoms need this one to stay afloat in the LTC chaos, but the Lions are simply a different tier of team right now. Herbert and Deebo offer a puncher’s chance — but the Lions’ offensive ceiling is too high to ignore, and their defense is the ultimate equalizer.

Prediction: Lions 218 – Atoms 182

Rebels (6–3–1, LTC) vs Juggernauts (3–7, PHC)

Storyline

The Rebels enter Week 11 holding the top spot in the LTC… but nothing is secure. With Bombers and Terrors right behind them and a cluster of 5–5 teams trying to break in, the Rebels must avoid the trap-game against a Juggernauts team with nothing to lose. For Retro TBL’s most star-loaded roster — Josh Allen, CMC, Achane, Etienne, Jacobs, A.J. Brown — this is a chance to strengthen their grip on a playoff spot and edge closer to a #1 seed.

The Juggernauts, meanwhile, can’t make the PHC postseason, but they can absolutely destroy someone else’s path — and shocking the conference leader would do exactly that.

QB

Rebels: Josh Allen
Juggernauts: Michael Penix Jr.
Edge: Rebels

RB

Rebels: Devon Achane, Travis Etienne, Josh Jacobs, Christian McCaffrey
Juggernauts: James Cook, Kenneth Walker
Edge: Rebels

WR

Rebels: A.J. Brown, Oronde Gadsden II, Quentin Johnston
Juggernauts: Troy Franklin, Jayden Higgins, Tetairoa McMillan
Edge: Rebels

TE

Rebels: Gadsden II (TE slot), Okonkwo
Juggernauts: Mark Andrews
Edge: Juggernauts

K

Rebels: Chris Boswell
Juggernauts: Ryan Fitzgerald
Edge: Rebels

DEF

Rebels: Ravens D/ST
Juggernauts: Eagles D/ST
Edge: Even

The Bottom Line

The Rebels know the LTC playoff chase is tightening, and this is exactly the type of game they cannot afford to drop. With overwhelming RB depth, elite QB play, and multiple WR1-level weapons, the Rebels have more paths to victory than any team in the league.

Prediction: Rebels 236 – Juggernauts 175

BadM’fers (5–5, LTC) vs MadDawgz (6–4, PHC)

Storyline

This matchup has huge ramifications — for both conferences. The BadM’fers are one of FOUR 5–5 teams in the LTC fighting for just TWO playoff spots. A win gives them control. A loss pushes them into the back of the pack. They’ll rely on Drake Maye, Keenan Allen, Stefon Diggs, and the Patriots D/ST to carry the load.

The MadDawgz hold the PHC’s #2 playoff spot, but the Bulls and Mudhawx are right behind them. A misstep here could turn the PHC into a late-season dogfight. Chase, DeVonta Smith, JSN, and a strong RB pairing give them plenty of firepower.

Two teams with postseason dreams collide — and both need this win.

QB

BadM’fers: Drake Maye
MadDawgz: Joe Flacco
Edge: BadM’fers

RB

BadM’fers: Demercado
MadDawgz: Rico Dowdle, Aaron Jones
Edge: MadDawgz

WR

BadM’fers: Keenan Allen, Stefon Diggs, Tory Horton, Tez Johnson
MadDawgz: Ja’Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Edge: MadDawgz

TE

BadM’fers: Harold Fannin
MadDawgz: Luke Musgrave
Edge: BadM’fers

K

BadM’fers: Jason Myers
MadDawgz: Chad Ryland
Edge: Even

DEF

BadM’fers: Patriots D/ST
MadDawgz: Broncos D/ST
Edge: BadM’fers

The Bottom Line

The BadM’fers have strong positional edges at QB, TE, and DEF — but the MadDawgz bring superior firepower at the premium scoring positions, especially WR. In a tight matchup with playoff implications for BOTH conferences, explosiveness wins out.

Prediction: MadDawgz 214 – BadM’fers 191

Bombers (6–4, LTC) vs Condors (4–5–1, LTC)

Storyline

This is the most important LTC matchup of the week. If the Bombers win, they stay on track for one of the conference’s three playoff spots. If the Condors win, the entire LTC becomes a madhouse with six teams jammed into the same tier.

The Bombers' lineup is a championship-caliber machine: Mahomes, Barkley, Gibbs, Javonte, Jefferson, Waddle, and Kelce. The Condors counter with a young, explosive WR trio and an opportunistic defense.

The stakes could not be higher.

QB

Bombers: Patrick Mahomes
Condors: J.J. McCarthy
Edge: Bombers

RB

Bombers: Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, Javonte Williams
Condors: Jaylen Warren, Omarion Hampton
Edge: Bombers

WR

Bombers: Justin Jefferson, Jaylen Waddle, Cooper Kupp (WR3 role)
Condors: Zay Flowers, Ricky Pearsall, Xavier Worthy
Edge: Bombers

TE

Bombers: Travis Kelce
Condors: AJ Barner, Gunnar Helm
Edge: Bombers

K

Bombers: McLaughlin
Condors: Tyler Loop
Edge: Even

DEF

Bombers: Seahawks D/ST
Condors: Chiefs D/ST
Edge: Even

The Bottom Line

The Condors’ WRs can absolutely explode — but the Bombers bring elite talent across every position group. They can win in the air, on the ground, and with TE dominance. In a must-win conference matchup, experience and consistency give Bombers the edge.

Prediction: Bombers 228 – Condors 178

Yinzers (5–5, LTC) vs Terrors (6–4, LTC)

Storyline

The playoff game of the week. The Terrors hold the third and final LTC playoff spot. The Yinzers are one game behind. A Yinzers win creates a five-team tie scenario that would make the LTC a hurricane of tiebreakers. A Terrors win gives them control entering Week 12.

The Yinzers roll in with Jordan Love, Amon-Ra St. Brown, George Pickens, and a strong RB corps. The Terrors counter with Jalen Hurts, Derrick Henry, D’Andre Swift, and Davante Adams — one of the most dangerous big-play cores in the league.

This is playoff football in Week 11.

QB

Yinzers: Jordan Love
Terrors: Jalen Hurts
Edge: Terrors

RB

Yinzers: TreVeyon Henderson, Rachaad White
Terrors: Derrick Henry, D’Andre Swift
Edge: Terrors

WR

Yinzers: George Pickens, Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR3
Terrors: Davante Adams, Romeo Doubs, WR3
Edge: Yinzers

TE

Yinzers: David Njoku, Cade Otton
Terrors: George Kittle, Pat Freiermuth
Edge: Terrors

K

Yinzers: Will Reichard
Terrors: Andres Borregales
Edge: Yinzers

DEF

Yinzers: Rams D/ST
Terrors: Packers D/ST
Edge: Yinzers

The Bottom Line

This one feels like a coin flip. The Yinzers have edges at WR, K, and DEF, while the Terrors dominate the premium RB and TE positions. But in a pressure game with postseason implications, the team with more consistent scoring across the board steals it.

Prediction: Yinzers 209 – Terrors 202

Bulls (5–5, PHC) vs Mudhawx (4–6, PHC)

Storyline

The Bulls hold the PHC’s #3 playoff spot, but the Mudhawx are just one game behind. If the Mudhawx win, the PHC becomes a 5-team free-for-all. If the Bulls hold, they maintain the inside lane toward the postseason.

Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Nico Collins, and Puka Nacua lead one of the most explosive passing attacks in the league. The Mudhawx counter with RB depth and Brock Bowers — the type of TE who can decide games alone.

In the PHC, nothing comes easy — this matchup is proof.

QB

Bulls: Dak Prescott
Mudhawx: Marcus Mariota
Edge: Bulls

RB

Bulls: Ashton Jeanty
Mudhawx: Chase Brown, Woody Marks, Tyjae Spears
Edge: Mudhawx

WR

Bulls: CeeDee Lamb, Nico Collins, Puka Nacua
Mudhawx: Brian Thomas Jr., Marvin Harrison Jr., WR3
Edge: Bulls

TE

Bulls: Jake Ferguson
Mudhawx: Brock Bowers
Edge: Mudhawx

K

Bulls: McPherson
Mudhawx: Brandon Aubrey
Edge: Even

DEF

Bulls: Chargers D/ST
Mudhawx: Vikings D/ST
Edge: Even

The Bottom Line

The Mudhawx can control the pace with RB depth and Bowers, but the Bulls have too much passing firepower. If Prescott and Lamb connect early, the Bulls control the narrative.

Prediction: Bulls 223 – Mudhawx 192

Believers (3–7, PHC) vs Jackrabbits (3–7, PHC)

Storyline

Win and stay alive. Lose and go home. It’s that simple.

Both teams enter 3–7, but mathematically alive because the PHC’s final playoff spot is barely above .500. Lamar Jackson and Breece Hall give the Believers a frightening foundation. The Jackrabbits counter with Tua and a WR duo that can trade blows with anyone in the PHC.

This is an elimination game in everything but name.

QB

Believers: Lamar Jackson
Jackrabbits: Tua Tagovailoa
Edge: Believers

RB

Believers: Breece Hall
Jackrabbits: Kenneth Gainwell
Edge: Believers

WR

Believers: Drake London, Ladd McConkey, WR3
Jackrabbits: Emeka Egbuka, Wan’Dale Robinson, WR3
Edge: Jackrabbits

TE

Believers: Knox, Likely
Jackrabbits: Ertz, Henry
Edge: Jackrabbits

K

Believers: Jake Elliott
Jackrabbits: Matt Prater
Edge: Jackrabbits

DEF

Believers: Falcons D/ST
Jackrabbits: Giants D/ST
Edge: Believers

The Bottom Line

The Jackrabbits hold more positional edges, but the Believers’ advantage at RB and QB may be too much in an elimination scenario.

Prediction: Believers 203 – Jackrabbits 198

WHAT’S AT STAKE?

LA DAINIAN TOMLINSON CONFERENCE (3 Playoff Spots)

Rebels (6–3–1)

  • A win moves them to the brink of clinching a playoff spot

  • Controls the #1 seed with a victory

  • A loss opens the door for Bombers/Terrors to challenge for the top seed

Bombers (6–4)

  • Win = stay in playoff position

  • Lose = fall into a multi-team 5–6 cluster

  • Most vulnerable high seed if they slip

Terrors (6–4)

  • Win = maintain LTC playoff standing

  • Lose = opens a three-way tie with Yinzers and BadM’fers

Yinzers (5–5)

  • Win = can jump into a playoff position

  • Lose = playoff path becomes much harder via tiebreakers

BadM’fers (5–5)

  • This is a must-have

  • A loss may drop them to the bottom of the LTC pile

Atoms (5–5)

  • Massive upset opportunity

  • Loss pushes them near elimination territory

Condors (4–5–1)

  • Win = right back in the hunt

  • Loss = likely elimination

PRIEST HOLMES CONFERENCE (3 Playoff Spots)

Lions (8–2)

  • A win puts them one step from sealing the #1 seed

  • A loss opens the door for MadDawgz to chase

MadDawgz (6–4)

  • Win = strengthen grip on #2 seed

  • Lose = Bulls could overtake them

Bulls (5–5)

  • Hold the final PHC playoff spot

  • Win = stay above the mud

  • Lose = chaos ensues

Mudhawx (4–6)

  • A win collapses the PHC playoff race into a 4-team fight

  • A loss puts them behind two teams with tiebreaker issues

Believers (3–7) / Jackrabbits (3–7)

  • Loser is eliminated

  • Winner stays in a long-shot scenario, but still alive

Juggernauts (3–7)

  • Spoiler mode

  • Upsets here affect entire conference structure

League-Wide Themes

  • Week 11 could create clarity… or total chaos

  • At least 10 teams are still realistically alive

  • Every game affects tiebreakers somewhere

  • Conference balance is razor thin

  • This week will define who controls destiny in Weeks 12 & 13

 

LaDainian Tomlinson Conference – Playoff Probability Matrix

LTC Teams: Rebels, Bombers, Terrors, Yinzers, BadM’fers, Atoms, Condors
Records are entering Week 11 (from your standings).

Legend

  • VH = Very High (80–95%)

  • H = High (60–80%)

  • M = Medium / Toss-up (40–60%)

  • L = Low (15–40%)

  • R = Remote (<15%)

LTC Matrix

Team Record Seed Range (Realistic) Meter Playoff Odds If Win in Week 11… If Lose in Week 11…
Rebels 6–3–1 1–3 VH Almost locks a spot; stays on track for #1 seed and control of LTC. Still favored, but could be pulled into a 3–4 team cluster for top 3; #1 seed becomes vulnerable.
Bombers 6–4 1–4 H Likely top-3 team; keeps pole position for #2/#3 and strong tiebreaker standing. Drops into the middle of the pack; could be one of several 6–5 or 5–6 teams fighting for 1–2 spots.
Terrors 6–4 2–5 H Firm grip on a playoff spot; creates gap between them and the 5–5 tier. Falls right into the blender with Yinzers/BadM’fers/Atoms; becomes a true bubble squad.
Yinzers 5–5 2–6 M Likely jumps into the projected playoff group; massive tiebreaker gain vs Terrors. Becomes a longshot needing a strong finish and help from others.
BadM’fers 5–5 3–6 M Moves into serious wild-card contention; stays alive as a top-3 candidate. Slips behind multiple teams and becomes dependent on multi-team tiebreakers going their way.
Atoms 5–5 3–6 M–L Giant resume win vs Lions; big narrative and tiebreaker boost, still alive and dangerous. Likely pushed to “win out or go home” territory.
Condors 4–5–1 4–7 L Claws back into the outer ring of the race; still needs a 2–1 or 3–0 finish but remains in the conversation. Functionally eliminated barring total LTC chaos.

LTC Takeaways

  • Rebels are the only team with truly comfortable odds; even they aren’t 100% locked because of how tight the middle is.

  • Bombers + Terrors are currently the “inside track” for the other two spots, but one wrong week can send either into the blender.

  • Yinzers / BadM’fers / Atoms are in the true bubble tier — one big win, and they’re in; one bad loss, and they’re gasping.

  • Condors are hanging onto the mathematical edge of the race; they need a heater from here on out.

Priest Holmes Conference – Playoff Probability Matrix

PHC Teams: Lions, MadDawgz, Bulls, Mudhawx, Jackrabbits, Believers, Juggernauts

Legend (same)

  • VH = Very High (80–95%)

  • H = High (60–80%)

  • M = Medium / Toss-up (40–60%)

  • L = Low (15–40%)

  • R = Remote (<15%)

PHC Matrix

Team Record Seed Range (Realistic)  Playoff Odds If Win in Week 11… If Lose in Week 11…
Lions 8–2 1–2 VH Basically locks a spot and is heavily favored for the #1 seed. Still strong favorite to make playoffs, but #1 becomes slightly more contested if MadDawgz surge.
MadDawgz 6–4 1–3 H Becomes very likely to secure a top-2 seed; can even keep faint pressure on Lions. Pulled into striking range of Bulls/Mudhawx, turning #2/#3 into a true brawl.
Bulls 5–5 2–4 M–H Solidifies position as favorite for the #3 seed; creates cushion over chasers. Opens the door for Mudhawx and surviving 3–7 teams to make this a 3–4 team dogfight.
Mudhawx 4–6 3–5 M–L Puts heavy pressure on Bulls and keeps them squarely in play for the final spot. Likely needs to win out AND get help; becomes low-odds.
Believers 3–7 3–6 L–R Stays technically alive; likely needs to go 3–0 or 2–1 with chaos ahead. All but eliminated — playing pure spoiler.
Jackrabbits 3–7 3–6 L–R Same as Believers: a win keeps the light flickering; a run + chaos could get them there. Essentially done for the playoff race.
Juggernauts 3–7 4–7 R Even with a win, they’re deep in the hole and need an extreme run-of-results; more of a spoiler now. Fully into draft-position role.

PHC Takeaways

  • Lions are nearly a lock; only a total collapse keeps them from the postseason.

  • MadDawgz + Bulls are the favorites for spots #2 and #3, but…

  • Mudhawx sit in that pesky spoiler/contender middle ground — one big win and they’re right in the mix, one loss and they fall off the edge.

  • Believers / Jackrabbits / Juggernauts are in “miracle run or spoiler” territory.

Quick Tier Snapshot

LTC Tiers (as of Week 11 start)

  • Front-Runner: Rebels

  • Favored Playoff Group: Bombers, Terrors

  • True Bubble Tier: Yinzers, BadM’fers, Atoms

  • Outside Looking In: Condors

PHC Tiers

  • Heavy Favorite: Lions

  • Strong Contenders: MadDawgz, Bulls

  • Bubble / Longshot: Mudhawx

  • Miracle or Spoiler Only: Believers, Jackrabbits, Juggernauts

 

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