Lineup Prep: Championship Games
Wed Jan 24 8:44am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Gibbs can produce big this week
Last week was sure entertaining. Let’s hope the games this week are just as good. I sure think it is possible. The matchups seems pretty even to me. I know the 49ers are pretty good favorites against the Lions at home, but I think Detroit can keep it close. And the Chiefs/Ravens game is setup to be fantastic. These teams are both rolling right now. We get to see two of the greatest quarterbacks in football battle it out to make the Super Bowl. This should be fun.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
Those were some games last week. It was fun to watch, especially that Chiefs/Bills game. You have to feel for Josh Allen. He had a great run in the playoffs, but just can’t get over that Kansas City hump. It was there for the taking last week for Allen, but his field goal kicker let him down. I still think Allen is an elite level quarterback than can win the big game. It will come for him sooner than later. He is just running into a buzz saw with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs right now.
I don’t think Brock Purdy silenced the doubters after last week’s game. He was not great until that last game-winning drive. He still looked a little shaky to me most of that game. And the loss of Deebo Samuel could be huge for him and the offense. Samuel seems to be a calming influence for Purdy. I am interested to see him play this week. This could be make or break for him.
Aaron Jones sure is a difference maker when healthy. He was unbelievable for the Packers down the stretch, having five straight 100-yard rushing games. The issue is Jones is hard to trust because of his injury history and age. He is 29 years old and missed five games each of the last two seasons and played a full season just once the last five years. I love his talent, but have a hard time taking him on draft day - even after his huge finish to this season.
I’m happy for Baker Mayfield. He seems to have found a home after a rocky start to his career. He was terrific for the Bucs with that great group of receivers. And he almost played that team into the NFC Championship game last week, throwing three more touchdown passes. I don’t see the Bucs letting him loose and I think he could be a top-10 fantasy quarterback once again next season in Tampa. I don’t think it was a fluke this year.
I am really hoping the Texans make a run at Saquon Barkley this offseason. Could you imagine him in that offense? I think he would be a great fit and a huge spark for that running game in Houston. I think this would just be an ideal landing spot for Barkley when it comes to his fantasy value. Let’s make this happen!
The Ravens have a great team and are the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but can you imagine that offense with a healthy JK Dobbins or Keaton Mitchell all season. Both these backs are difference makers in my eyes and big upgrades over what they are using right now. I still think Dobbins can be a star in this league. Just something to keep in mind next season when these guys are back playing.
I like the Titans hire of Brian Callahan as their next head coach. He should be a positive for that offense, especially quarterback Will Levis. Hopefully, he can take this offense to a new level and give us a bunch of fantasy relevant players. Callahan is a bright, young offensive mind that has been integral in the development of Joe Burrow. Let’s hope he can do the same for Levis.
News and Notes: The Lions signed tight end Zach Ertz to their practice squad on Monday. Ertz gives the Lions depth at the position after an injury to Brock Wright.
HOT PLAYS
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. With Deebo Samuel very iffy to play, Aiyuk should be the top target at receiver for the 49ers this week. He didn’t do much last week, but was targeted six times in the game, which was encouraging. He gets a much better matchup this week against the Lions, a team that has allowed five straight 300-yard passing games. Aiyuk can have a big showing in this matchup.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions. Gibbs had a big game last week, topping 100 total yards while scoring a touchdown. He has touchdowns each of the first two playoff games for the Lions. He has 16-plus fantasy points each of those games. Gibbs is playing well and should be heavily involved in the offense again this week. The 49ers have been great against the run much of the year, but shown some issues stopping the run lately. San Francisco allowed 136-rushing yards last week and given up 100-plus rushing yards four of five games.
COLD PLAYS
Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff had a great overall season, but his fantasy numbers haven’t been too off the charts. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points three of five games. He is getting his yards, but the Lions tend to run the ball in more for scores than pass. He might be an iffy fantasy play this week against the 49ers. San Francisco allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season.
Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens. Edwards has failed to score each of his last two games, giving him really poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than six fantasy points each of his last two games, failing to hit 50-rushing yards each of those games. Edwards could have a similar showing this week against the Chiefs, a team that allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs. Kansas City allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season.
SLEEPERS
Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens. Bateman had three receptions for 39 yards on three targets last week. He had a solid game but failed to hit double-digit fantasy points once again. The good news is he got his looks once again. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense, but Bateman could have more favorable coverages than Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. Those guys should draw the tougher assignments, leaving Bateman a chance to make some big plays in the passing game. He could surprise this week.
Justice Hill, RB, Ravens. Hill led the Ravens in rushing last week, including rushing attempts. He got more work than starter Gus Edwards. Hill had 15 touches for 77 total yards. He could be setup for a similar workload in what could be a high-scoring fantasy teams. This means Hill could have a big fantasy showing. At this point, we might trust Hill more than Edwards, who is a more touchdown dependent player.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Chiefs/Ravens, Lions/49ers.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 3
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (knee) didn't do much in a Week 3 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, then was forced to leave early after aggravating his ankle injury. Herbert attempted 18 passes, completing 12 of them for 125 yards and a touchdown. He recorded one rush attempt, but did not gain any yardage. Herbert's touchdown went to Quentin Johnston in the first quarter to open the scoring, but the Chargers offense couldn't get much done after that, especially after Herbert limped off the field. It's unclear if he'll be able to start next week against the Chiefs, Taylor Heinicke would be in line for the start if Herbert misses time.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (ankle) was spotted in a walking boot following the Chargers' loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Herbert entered Week 3 with a high-ankle sprain and aggravated the injury midway through the game. After the game, Herbert did mention that he is hopeful to be able to play in Week 4. Prior to his exit, Herbert had thrown for 125 yards and a touchdown. Herbert was replaced by Taylor Heinicke who completed both of his passes for 24 yards. If Herbert is forced to miss time with this injury, it would be a huge blow to the Chargers offense. The offense already struggled with Herbert in the lineup against a talented Steelers defense. The loss of Herbert would affect the Chargers' pass catchers and running backs in fantasy. For now, fantasy managers should monitor the situation.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins was slowed down by the Pittsburgh Steelers in a Week 3 loss. Dobbins ran the ball 15 times, gaining 44 yards. He added three catches on three targets, gaining an additional 10 yards. His 18 touches were by far the most in the Chargers backfield, as Gus Edwards was second with just three. Dobbins has clearly taken over the RB1 role for the Chargers and will certainly have bigger weeks than this very tough matchup in a low scoring game. Dobbins and the Chargers will face the Kansas City Chiefs next week, possibly without starting quarterback Justin Herbert (ankle).
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers kicker Brayden Narveson was perfect on the day in the Packers' 30-14 victory against the Titans in Week 3. Narveson booted home all three field goal attempts from 21, 26, and 47 yards and converted all three extra-point attempts. The Packers' offense is plenty potent enough no matter who is starting at quarterback, which is always a great thing for fantasy kickers. With three consecutive double-digit fantasy scoring games to start his NFL career, Narveson is quickly ascending the ranks of fantasy kickers and should now be considered a solid starting option going forward.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers running back Gus Edwards barely touched the ball in a Week 3 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. In a 20-10 loss, Edwards ran the ball just three times, gaining a total of nine yards. He was not targeted in the passing game. The Bolts ran the ball 20 times, with J.K. Dobbins getting 15 of those rushes. Dobbins has clearly taken over the RB1 role in this backfield, leaving Edwards to a backup and likely goal line role. He'll have some boom weeks if game situation gets him in the red zone, but he's no more than a dart throw FLEX play most weeks.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Justin Fields completed 25 of 32 attempts for 245 yards, one touchdown, and one interception while rushing for six yards and a score in a win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Outside of a turnover coming off a deflected pass, Fields was incredibly effective under center, leading Pittsburgh to its first 3-0 start since 2020. The 25-year-old completed each of his first 10 throws and scrambled into the end zone early in the second quarter. While George Pickens remained his favorite target, it was wideout Calvin Austin III on the receiving end of Fields' touchdown pass, a strike over the middle of the field taken 55 yards to the house. Fields is looking increasingly comfortable in offensive coordinator Arthur Smith's system and should be viewed as a high-end QB2 in fantasy for as long as he keeps the starting gig.
From RotoBaller
Tennessee Titans running back Tony Pollard ran six times for 14 yards, adding three receptions for 15 yards in a loss to Green Bay. It was a putrid fantasy day for the former Cowboy, who was looking like a great value in the later rounds of drafts after being featured heavily in Weeks 1-2. Game script definitely played a huge part in the low volume for Pollard, as the Titans went down very early and were forced to rely on the arm of quarterback Will Levis, which did not get them very far. Green Bay had been weak against the run coming into this game, but completely dominated the Titans up front, which did not bode well for Pollard. He will look to bounce back in Week 4 vs. Miami.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs was a minor part of the Packers' 30-14 victory against the Tennessee Titans in Week 3. Jacobs tallied 43 rushing yards on the ground on 14 carries while securing his only target for a five-yard reception. Outshined by fellow running back Emanuel Wilson, Jacobs had his worst game as a Packer as he could not get much going on the day. The Packers' game plan saw Green Bay continue to emphasize the run with Malik Willis starting another game for Jordan Love (knee), who was ruled out before kickoff. For fantasy purposes, Jacobs remains a solid low-end RB1 in a tough upcoming matchup in Week 4 against the revitalized Minnesota Vikings' defensive unit.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris handled 18 carries for 70 yards and hauled in all five of his targets for 16 yards in a 20-10 victory against the Los Angeles Chargers. Harris got off to a sluggish start, concluding the first half with just three yards on the ground. Although the fourth-year pro did most of his damage in the fourth quarter, he was utilized as a pass-catcher throughout the game. Surprisingly, he received 19 more touches than Jaylen Warren after the latter became more involved in Pittsburgh's offense last week. Harris is still searching for his first touchdown of the campaign, but fantasy managers can trust his usage in neutral and positive game scripts. His next opportunity will come on the road against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4.
From RotoBaller
Tennessee Titans running back Tyjae Spears rushed two times for seven yards, adding four receptions on four targets for 54 yards in a 30-14 loss against Green Bay. It was the best fantasy performance thus far for Spears, who had been completely overshadowed by his backfield mate Tony Pollard up to this point. Because the Titans went down early and had to abandon the run, Spears saw more work and snaps than Pollard who only managed 29 scrimmage yards. The opportunities for these two backs will be heavily dependent on game script for the Titans, with a negative situation favoring Spears. The 2nd-year pro will look to continue this momentum next week against Miami in a primetime matchup.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks defensive end Leonard Williams (ribs) exited in the first quarter against the Miami Dolphins. He is officially listed as questionable to return. After heading to the blue tent holding his side, Williams could be seen heading to the locker room. Williams is an important piece of a much improved Seahawks defensive line. In 2024, Williams has recorded six total tackles and 1.5 sacks. If he cannot return to the game then his absence will profoundly impact the Seahawks D/ST. Hopefully, the injury is not serious but fantasy managers rostering the Seahawks D/ST should be aware of his status.
From RotoBaller
Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis completed 24-of-36 passes for 260 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, also losing a fumble against Green Bay. It was another struggle of an afternoon for the young quarterback, who had his second three turnover game to start the season. Levis was constantly under pressure for the third straight week, which led to eight Sacks by the Packers. The only promising takeaway from this game was that Levis hit his third highest yardage total of his young career, but the Titans offense continues to look ineffective with him at the helm. The 25-year-old is simply too turnover prone to trust in fantasy right now, even in 2QB leagues. Levis will look to get his first win of the 2024 season next Monday against Miami.
From RotoBaller
Tennessee Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley caught just one pass for nine yards in a 30-14 home loss to Green Bay. After an explosion last week, Ridley was completely taken out of the game on Sunday, receiving only three targets on the afternoon. This volatility might be the norm due to the consistent nature of the Titans' passing attack with quarterback Will Levis throwing the ball, but the low target volume is very odd. It's also worth noting that veteran DeAndre Hopkins finished with a 6-73-1 line and led the team with seven targets, potentially signaling a shift in the alpha status of Titans' pass catchers. Ridley will look to bounce back next Monday night against the Dolphins.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers quarterback Malik Willis had himself a banner day in Week 3 as he threw for 202 yards and a touchdown through the air in the Packers' 30-14 victory against the Tennessee Titans. Willis also added 73 rushing yards and another touchdown on the ground, showing promise filling in for starting quarterback Jordan Love (knee), who was ruled out this week. Love may return in Week 4 at home against the Minnesota Vikings and that would relegate Willis back to backup quarterbacking duties behind Love. Of course, if Love is back in the lineup for the Packers, Willis can be safely dropped in seasonal fantasy formats.
From RotoBaller
The Kansas City Chiefs have benched rookie left tackle Kingsley Suamataia in favor of Wanya Morris for their Week 3 game on Sunday night against the Atlanta Falcons. Suamataia struggled in Week 2 against the Cincinnati Bengals. Bengals pass rusher Trey Hendrickson had his way with the rookie all day. The move may be welcome for fantasy managers. Morris may be able to allow quarterback Patrick Mahomes more time to operate on Sunday night. That will be important for Mahomes' fantasy stock and the various pass catchers in the Kansas City offense.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers running back Isaac Guerendo will handle kickoff returns in place of injured wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. (calf) in Week 3, according to Matt Barrows of The Athletic. Barrows notes that the majority of kickoffs in 2024 have resulted in touchbacks, but if the Rams attempt any kicks that are returnable, Guerendo will handle that duty. The 24-year-old rookie has seen minimal opportunities on offense this year, rushing just once while handling one percent of offensive snaps in Week 2. He's off the fantasy radar.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams kicker Joshua Karty (groin) is officially active for Week 3 versus the San Francisco 49ers. He had been listed as questionable after logging a limited practice on Friday. Karty has not yet missed a kick through two weeks in the NFL, converting three extra points and three field goals (including one from 40+ yards out). However, the Rams enter Sunday's game without Cooper Kupp (ankle) and Puka Nacua (knee), which is bad news for their offense's chances of scoring. As a result, Karty's upside is also limited. He can be avoided in most fantasy leagues this week.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith (concussion) has been ruled out for the remainder of Week 3 versus the New Orleans Saints. He exited the game in the second half. At the time of his departure, he had caught seven of 10 targets for 79 yards. Smith had earned an uptick in targets lately with A.J. Brown (hamstring) sidelined. Now, Philadelphia will be without both of its top two receivers for the end of Sunday's game and perhaps beyond. Tight end Dallas Goedert figures to be the centerpiece of the passing game while receivers Johnny Wilson, Jahan Dotson, and Parris Campbell also get involved. The Eagles face the Buccaneers next weekend before heading into a Week 5 bye.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (ankle) exited during the third quarter of Sunday's game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. He is officially questionable to return. Herbert entered this week with an ankle injury and was a game-time decision. While the Chargers ultimately decided he was healthy enough to play, they kept a third quarterback active in case Herbert re-aggravated his injury and had to exit the contest. That exact scenario is now coming into play after Herbert exited. At the time of his departure, he had completed 12 passes for 125 yards and one touchdown. Taylor Heinicke entered the game in his place.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Greg Dortch (hamstring) is officially active for Week 3 against the Detroit Lions. He had been listed as questionable entering the weekend, but there was a growing sense that he would suit up. Dortch is expected to operate as the Cardinals' No. 3 receiver behind Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson, and he'll also compete for touches with running back James Conner and tight end Trey McBride. Dortch has the potential to be a target hog, especially in the short-yardage passing game. However, he's only on the fantasy radar in deep leagues.
From RotoBaller
