Lineup Prep: Championship Games
Wed Jan 24 8:44am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Gibbs can produce big this week
Last week was sure entertaining. Let’s hope the games this week are just as good. I sure think it is possible. The matchups seems pretty even to me. I know the 49ers are pretty good favorites against the Lions at home, but I think Detroit can keep it close. And the Chiefs/Ravens game is setup to be fantastic. These teams are both rolling right now. We get to see two of the greatest quarterbacks in football battle it out to make the Super Bowl. This should be fun.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
Those were some games last week. It was fun to watch, especially that Chiefs/Bills game. You have to feel for Josh Allen. He had a great run in the playoffs, but just can’t get over that Kansas City hump. It was there for the taking last week for Allen, but his field goal kicker let him down. I still think Allen is an elite level quarterback than can win the big game. It will come for him sooner than later. He is just running into a buzz saw with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs right now.
I don’t think Brock Purdy silenced the doubters after last week’s game. He was not great until that last game-winning drive. He still looked a little shaky to me most of that game. And the loss of Deebo Samuel could be huge for him and the offense. Samuel seems to be a calming influence for Purdy. I am interested to see him play this week. This could be make or break for him.
Aaron Jones sure is a difference maker when healthy. He was unbelievable for the Packers down the stretch, having five straight 100-yard rushing games. The issue is Jones is hard to trust because of his injury history and age. He is 29 years old and missed five games each of the last two seasons and played a full season just once the last five years. I love his talent, but have a hard time taking him on draft day - even after his huge finish to this season.
I’m happy for Baker Mayfield. He seems to have found a home after a rocky start to his career. He was terrific for the Bucs with that great group of receivers. And he almost played that team into the NFC Championship game last week, throwing three more touchdown passes. I don’t see the Bucs letting him loose and I think he could be a top-10 fantasy quarterback once again next season in Tampa. I don’t think it was a fluke this year.
I am really hoping the Texans make a run at Saquon Barkley this offseason. Could you imagine him in that offense? I think he would be a great fit and a huge spark for that running game in Houston. I think this would just be an ideal landing spot for Barkley when it comes to his fantasy value. Let’s make this happen!
The Ravens have a great team and are the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but can you imagine that offense with a healthy JK Dobbins or Keaton Mitchell all season. Both these backs are difference makers in my eyes and big upgrades over what they are using right now. I still think Dobbins can be a star in this league. Just something to keep in mind next season when these guys are back playing.
I like the Titans hire of Brian Callahan as their next head coach. He should be a positive for that offense, especially quarterback Will Levis. Hopefully, he can take this offense to a new level and give us a bunch of fantasy relevant players. Callahan is a bright, young offensive mind that has been integral in the development of Joe Burrow. Let’s hope he can do the same for Levis.
News and Notes: The Lions signed tight end Zach Ertz to their practice squad on Monday. Ertz gives the Lions depth at the position after an injury to Brock Wright.
HOT PLAYS
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. With Deebo Samuel very iffy to play, Aiyuk should be the top target at receiver for the 49ers this week. He didn’t do much last week, but was targeted six times in the game, which was encouraging. He gets a much better matchup this week against the Lions, a team that has allowed five straight 300-yard passing games. Aiyuk can have a big showing in this matchup.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions. Gibbs had a big game last week, topping 100 total yards while scoring a touchdown. He has touchdowns each of the first two playoff games for the Lions. He has 16-plus fantasy points each of those games. Gibbs is playing well and should be heavily involved in the offense again this week. The 49ers have been great against the run much of the year, but shown some issues stopping the run lately. San Francisco allowed 136-rushing yards last week and given up 100-plus rushing yards four of five games.
COLD PLAYS
Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff had a great overall season, but his fantasy numbers haven’t been too off the charts. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points three of five games. He is getting his yards, but the Lions tend to run the ball in more for scores than pass. He might be an iffy fantasy play this week against the 49ers. San Francisco allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season.
Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens. Edwards has failed to score each of his last two games, giving him really poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than six fantasy points each of his last two games, failing to hit 50-rushing yards each of those games. Edwards could have a similar showing this week against the Chiefs, a team that allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs. Kansas City allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season.
SLEEPERS
Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens. Bateman had three receptions for 39 yards on three targets last week. He had a solid game but failed to hit double-digit fantasy points once again. The good news is he got his looks once again. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense, but Bateman could have more favorable coverages than Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. Those guys should draw the tougher assignments, leaving Bateman a chance to make some big plays in the passing game. He could surprise this week.
Justice Hill, RB, Ravens. Hill led the Ravens in rushing last week, including rushing attempts. He got more work than starter Gus Edwards. Hill had 15 touches for 77 total yards. He could be setup for a similar workload in what could be a high-scoring fantasy teams. This means Hill could have a big fantasy showing. At this point, we might trust Hill more than Edwards, who is a more touchdown dependent player.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Chiefs/Ravens, Lions/49ers.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
The Baltimore Ravens have officially moved former quarterback Malik Cunningham to wide receiver this offseason after signing him off the New England Patriots' practice squad last December to reunite him with former college teammate Lamar Jackson. Last year, the Ravens cross-trained Cunningham as a QB, receiver and special teams contributor, and he played in one game, taking four snaps at receiver in the Week 18 regular season finale. At organized team activities this spring, the Ravens are immersing the 25-year-old at the receiver position, and the Ravens think he has transitioned well to wideout. Cunningham has the athleticism, but he still faces an uphill battle to stick at the position. If anything, he'll likely continue to be a special teams option for Baltimore in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Dolphins have signed wide receiver Jaylen Waddle to a contract extenstion. Dynasty Analysis: Waddle gets a contract worth $84.75 million with a whopping $76 million in guaranteed money. The deal also makes him the fourth-highest paid wide receiver in the league. It's a giant contract for a player who is currently the WR2 on his own team but it's clear Miami sees him as the long-term focal point of their passing offense. After three straight 1,000-yard seasons, 18 touchdowns, and 251 receptions, it's not hard to see why. Waddle is currently our WR12, and that could actually represent a bit of a "buy low" window at the moment.
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Ricky Pearsall (undisclosed) is reportedly working through an injury and wearing a non-contact jersey at OTAs. However, Matt Barrows of The Athletic reports that his injury has not held him out of practice or slowed him down. That said, this should not be a concern for fantasy managers. "As was the case last week, Pearsall looked comfortable in the offense and caught several passes from Brock Purdy, including one at the sideline that Pearsall snagged in front of cornerback Isaac Yiadom, who had close coverage," Barrows wrote. The former Arizona State and Florida wideout was selected with the No. 31 overall pick in April's 2024 NFL Draft, and although he lands in a great offense, it's tough to find a path toward consistent production in 2024. As of now, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel remain on the roster, and the organization re-signed Jauan Jennings to a two-year extension on Wednesday. Pearsall is likely best served as a dynasty-league stash for rebuilding teams.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (knee) did not participate in Thursday's OTA practice, but Joel A. Erickson of Indy Star said it was for precautionary reasons. Pittman banged knees with a defender last week and limped off the field, but he is expected to be "fine". The former second-round pick has posted at least 88 receptions, 925 yards, and four touchdowns over the last three seasons, but he'll face more target competition this year. The Colts selected Adonai Mitchell in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft, and 2023 third-rounder Josh Downs is expected to have an expanded role. All that said, Pittman should remain the WR1 for Anthony Richardson and post at least low-end WR2 numbers in his fifth NFL campaign.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua is coming off arguably the greatest rookie season ever for a wideout. He posted 105 receptions for 1,468 yards and six touchdowns, and he set a rookie record for receiving yards in a postseason game (181). It's difficult to project a better season of production in Year 2, but Rams offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur said he has improved this offseason. "You can definitely see he's made strides. He's moving better. I know he feels more comfortable," LaFleur said. "He's in year two and that's what you expect from all the players, but you know that you're going to get it from Puka because he's just made of the right stuff." Nacua is being drafted as a mid-to-late first-round pick in PPR leagues, and if Cooper Kupp takes another step back, he could compete for an overall WR1 finish in fantasy football. Los Angeles did not add legitimate target competition in free agency or the 2024 NFL Draft.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens outside linebacker David Ojabo (knee) suffered a partially torn ACL in Week 3 of last season, but he is expected to be a full participant at some point in training camp later this summer. The 2022 second-round pick suffered a torn Achilles in the pre-draft process leading up to the 2022 NFL Draft, or he likely would've been a first-rounder. Through two NFL seasons, he has accumulated seven total tackles, two sacks, and two forced fumbles in just five games. Hopefully, he can stay healthy in 2024 and show what he can do as at least a situational pass-rusher.
From RotoBaller
The New York Giants waived running back Gary Brightwell (undisclosed) with an injury designation on Thursday, according to NFL.com. The former 2021 sixth-round pick by the G-Men out of Arizona has remained on the roster over the last three seasons, but his time looks to be coming to an end. So far in his career, Brightwell has rushed 41 times for 164 yards and one touchdown and caught 11 passes for 92 yards in 37 games. He played 100 snaps on special teams last year. With Brightwell out of the building, Devin Singletary, Eric Gray, and Tyrone Tracy Jr. now have less competition for touches.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos running back Audric Estime (knee) underwent a precautionary knee scope for an injury he suffered last week, according to NFL.com. Although it's not ideal for the rookie Notre Dame product to get banged up early in his career, the injury is not serious, and he is expected to be ready for training camp later this summer. Following Estime's final season in college which included 1,483 yards from scrimmage and 18 touchdowns, some viewed him as a top running back in the 2024 class. However, his 4.71 40-yard dash time at the NFL combine likely led to him falling to Day 3. Either way, he could carve out a role in Sean Payton's offense right away as a short-yardage and goal-line back behind Javonte Williams.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants running back Eric Gray saw a lot of run with the first-team offense during organized team activities on Thursday, leading the New York Daily News' Pat Leonard to put Gray as the team's RB2 behind starter Devin Singletary. In addition, the Giants waived/injured Gary Brightwell, a sixth-round pick in 2021 by the previous regime, on Thursday. The G-Men are facing life without Saquon Barkley in 2024. Singletary is likely to lead this backfield, but he's never been a workhorse back in the NFL and will certainly cede backfield touches in his first year in the Big Apple. Gray was a fifth-rounder in 2023 and had only 23 touches for 70 yards on 65 offensive snaps a year ago. Given the lack of competition behind Gray, he's a good bet to see a significant boost in touches in Year 2. He'll be a handcuff option for Singletary owners in deeper fantasy leagues.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans quarterback Tim Boyle (finger) was back on the practice field at organized team activities on Thursday after missing time last week after getting stitches for a finger cut while taking a snap. Boyle will be competing for a roster spot this offseason and in training camp this summer. He's currently listed as the No. 4 QB on the Texans' depth chart behind C.J. Stroud, Davis Mills and veteran Case Keenum. It will be an uphill battle for the 29-year-old former undrafted free agent. Boyle has already served as a backup option for five different teams since entering the NFL with the Green Bay Packers in 2019. In his five years in the league, Boyle has completed only 62.3% of his 183 pass attempts for 934 yards, four touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 20 games (five starts). He's not anywhere near the fantasy radar in any format.
From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos are expecting to see growth from wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. as he heads into his second year in the league. "You're going to see a lot of growth from Year 1 to Year 2," head coach Sean Payton said. Mims, the team's second-round pick (63rd overall) in 2023 out of Oklahoma, averaged a healthy 17.1 yards per catch in his first NFL season last year but caught just 22 passes on 33 targets for 377 yards and only one touchdown in 16 games (seven starts). The 22-year-old didn't get all that many opportunities to get into a rhythm in his rookie campaign but showed potential as a deep threat down the field from time to time. His fantasy stock immediately got a boost when the team traded Jerry Jeudy to the Browns in the offseason, but he'll still have to show improvement in Year 2 in order to see playing time alongside Josh Reynolds, Tim Patrick and rookie Troy Franklin.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers second-year tight end Darnell Washington got put into a box as a blocking tight end as a rookie in 2023 and rarely had opportunities to showcase his potential as a pass-catching mismatch, catching just seven of 10 targets for 61 yards. But 6-foot-7, 265-pound monster of a tight end said there's a "strong possibility" he'll become more of a receiving threat in new offensive coordinator's tight end-friendly system. The 22-year-old is an intriguing mismatch if sent out on routes, but as long as Pat Freiermuth remains healthy as the team's top pass-catching TE, it's going to be hard for Washington to stand out in fantasy.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos wide receiver Josh Reynolds could find himself in a substantial role in the Broncos' offense in his first year with the team after signing a two-year, $9 million deal in March. Reynolds comes from Detroit, where head coach Dan Campbell previously worked under current Broncos head coach Sean Payton in New Orleans. Payton is seeking more production all across the offense in 2024 and is embracing the idea that it could come from anywhere. "He's long; he has strong hands. Another veteran receiver," Payton said of Reynolds. Courtland Sutton is the unquestioned top wideout in Denver, but Reynolds will be competing for a starting role with the rehabbing Tim Patrick, Marvin Mims Jr. and rookie fourth-rounder Troy Franklin. With questions at QB, though, Reynolds will most likely go undrafted in standard 12-team fantasy leagues this fall.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy reiterated on Thursday at organized team activities that he's "definitely" seen significant progress from backup quarterback Trey Lance. "Now starting to get the timing with the routes. He's close to being a master of the system. He has a really high understanding. He just needs as many reps as he can," McCarthy said. Despite the Cowboys unsurprisingly declining Lance's fifth-year option this offseason, they have liked what they've seen from the former first-round pick (third overall) heading into his second season with the team. The 24-year-old signal-caller has lost most of his dynasty/keeper appeal at this point after not playing a single snap for Dallas in 2023 while sitting behind Dak Prescott. Unless Prescott misses time with an injury that forces Lance into the fold in 2024, he'll be off the redraft radar.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears rookie first-round wide receiver Rome Odunze (hamstring) was seen on the field taking part in organized team activities on Thursday, and he showed off his contested-catch abilities. The Bears took precaution in holding Odunze out of previous OTA sessions last week, but the 21-year-old Washington Husky alumni is now back on the field as he prepares for his first season in the NFL. The ninth overall pick in last month's NFL draft has a bright future ahead of him and can pretty much do anything on the football field as a receiver, but fantasy managers in single-year redraft leagues may want to pump the brakes on his value in 2024 as long as both DJ Moore and Keenan Allen stay healthy in front of him in Chicago's receiver pecking order. But in the long term, Odunze may have the highest ceiling of any rookie wideout while being paired with QB Caleb Williams, the first overall pick.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants wide receiver Darius Slayton was back at organized team activities on Thursday after saying that the team added incentives to his contract to appease him. Slayton was staying away from voluntary OTAs this offseason as he angled for a new contract extension from the team, but the 27-year-old former fifth-round pick in 2019 out of Auburn is now back with the team. Despite the addition of rookie pass-catcher Malik Nabers in the first round of this year's NFL draft, Slayton still figures to be in line for a starting role in New York's offense in 2024 after recording a career-high 770 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 50 receptions in 17 games (13 starts) a year ago. However, Slayton's fantasy ceiling and floor will be volatile, especially since both Jalin Hyatt and Wan'Dale Robinson figure to be asked to take on more in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle is signing a three-year contract extension worth up to $84.75 million that includes $76 million guaranteed, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. The $28.25 million average salary ranks fourth among NFL wideouts, trailing only A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Tyreek Hill. Since entering the league as a first-round pick in 2021 out of Alabama, Waddle has hauled in 251 of his 361 targets for 3,385 yards and 18 touchdowns. He's caught at least 72 passes and racked up 1,000-plus yards in each of his first three campaigns. Although he is the clear No. 2 wide receiver in Miami behind Hill, he remains a strong fantasy football asset with WR1 upside in an explosive passing offense. Last season marked his first year without a WR1 finish, but he should bounce back after setting career lows on catches, yards, and touchdowns. He's a screaming value at his low-end WR2 price tag in early fantasy drafts.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos running back Jaleel McLaughlin (head) was photographed participating in OTAs on Thursday, according to the Marietta Daily Journal. The pass-catching back came on strong late in his rookie campaign last year, but he's still expected to face firm competition in the form of Javonte Williams and Audric Estime, to name a couple. Adding extra faces to this backfield complicates the matter and drops McLaughlin to a depth role, making him a reasonable target at his ADP of 163. Fantasy managers will find extra solace in the fact that he's healthy and ready to go for the season.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs (hamstring) continues to make progress and could return to the field for contact and action next week. "Hopefully next week we'll get him out there when we go full speed," head coach Matt LaFleur explained to the media. The former Raiders star inked a deal with Green Bay over the offseason, and his extreme versatility makes him an appealing pick. As long as he gets healthy once again, he could push to be a low-end RB1 in fantasy leagues. Regardless of his exact finish, he should have several opportunities to feast within a competent Jordan Love-run team.
From RotoBaller
The Jacksonville Jaguars intend to get running back Tank Bigsby more involved next season, according to Demetrius Harvey of the Jacksonville Florida Times-Union. Bigsby was a rookie last year, and while he did earn some opportunities, he was clearly the backup option to Travis Etienne Jr. Sure, Etienne will remain the Jaguars' undeniable top back in 2024, but the expectation is that Bigsby will be more involved. "We've talked about this too as a staff and myself, making sure Tank [Bigsby] gets opportunities to get out there and take some of the pounding off of Travis," explained head coach Doug Pederson. While this new report might not be enough to put Bigsby on the radar in typical 12-team redraft leagues, he's still worth monitoring as the season gets underway. A slow start or injury from Etienne could put Bigsby in a favorable role.
From RotoBaller
