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FFL: Week 4 | NFL: Week 4

Lineup Prep: Championship Games

Wed Jan 24 8:44am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Gibbs can produce big this week


Last week was sure entertaining. Let’s hope the games this week are just as good. I sure think it is possible. The matchups seems pretty even to me. I know the 49ers are pretty good favorites against the Lions at home, but I think Detroit can keep it close. And the Chiefs/Ravens game is setup to be fantastic. These teams are both rolling right now. We get to see two of the greatest quarterbacks in football battle it out to make the Super Bowl. This should be fun.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . 

Those were some games last week. It was fun to watch, especially that Chiefs/Bills game. You have to feel for Josh Allen. He had a great run in the playoffs, but just can’t get over that Kansas City hump. It was there for the taking last week for Allen, but his field goal kicker let him down. I still think Allen is an elite level quarterback than can win the big game. It will come for him sooner than later. He is just running into a buzz saw with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs right now.

I don’t think Brock Purdy silenced the doubters after last week’s game. He was not great until that last game-winning drive. He still looked a little shaky to me most of that game. And the loss of Deebo Samuel could be huge for him and the offense. Samuel seems to be a calming influence for Purdy. I am interested to see him play this week. This could be make or break for him.

Aaron Jones sure is a difference maker when healthy. He was unbelievable for the Packers down the stretch, having five straight 100-yard rushing games. The issue is Jones is hard to trust because of his injury history and age. He is 29 years old and missed five games each of the last two seasons and played a full season just once the last five years. I love his talent, but have a hard time taking him on draft day - even after his huge finish to this season.

I’m happy for Baker Mayfield. He seems to have found a home after a rocky start to his career. He was terrific for the Bucs with that great group of receivers. And he almost played that team into the NFC Championship game last week, throwing three more touchdown passes. I don’t see the Bucs letting him loose and I think he could be a top-10 fantasy quarterback once again next season in Tampa. I don’t think it was a fluke this year.

I am really hoping the Texans make a run at Saquon Barkley this offseason. Could you imagine him in that offense? I think he would be a great fit and a huge spark for that running game in Houston. I think this would just be an ideal landing spot for Barkley when it comes to his fantasy value. Let’s make this happen!

The Ravens have a great team and are the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but can you imagine that offense with a healthy JK Dobbins or Keaton Mitchell all season. Both these backs are difference makers in my eyes and big upgrades over what they are using right now. I still think Dobbins can be a star in this league. Just something to keep in mind next season when these guys are back playing.

I like the Titans hire of Brian Callahan as their next head coach. He should be a positive for that offense, especially quarterback Will Levis. Hopefully, he can take this offense to a new level and give us a bunch of fantasy relevant players. Callahan is a bright, young offensive mind that has been integral in the development of Joe Burrow. Let’s hope he can do the same for Levis.

News and Notes: The Lions signed tight end Zach Ertz to their practice squad on Monday. Ertz gives the Lions depth at the position after an injury to Brock Wright.

HOT PLAYS

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. With Deebo Samuel very iffy to play, Aiyuk should be the top target at receiver for the 49ers this week. He didn’t do much last week, but was targeted six times in the game, which was encouraging. He gets a much better matchup this week against the Lions, a team that has allowed five straight 300-yard passing games. Aiyuk can have a big showing in this matchup.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions. Gibbs had a big game last week, topping 100 total yards while scoring a touchdown. He has touchdowns each of the first two playoff games for the Lions. He has 16-plus fantasy points each of those games. Gibbs is playing well and should be heavily involved in the offense again this week. The 49ers have been great against the run much of the year, but shown some issues stopping the run lately. San Francisco allowed 136-rushing yards last week and given up 100-plus rushing yards four of five games.

COLD PLAYS 

Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff had a great overall season, but his fantasy numbers haven’t been too off the charts. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points three of five games. He is getting his yards, but the Lions tend to run the ball in more for scores than pass. He might be an iffy fantasy play this week against the 49ers. San Francisco allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season.

Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens. Edwards has failed to score each of his last two games, giving him really poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than six fantasy points each of his last two games, failing to hit 50-rushing yards each of those games. Edwards could have a similar showing this week against the Chiefs, a team that allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs. Kansas City allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season.

SLEEPERS

Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens. Bateman had three receptions for 39 yards on three targets last week. He had a solid game but failed to hit double-digit fantasy points once again. The good news is he got his looks once again. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense, but Bateman could have more favorable coverages than Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. Those guys should draw the tougher assignments, leaving Bateman a chance to make some big plays in the passing game. He could surprise this week.

Justice Hill, RB, Ravens. Hill led the Ravens in rushing last week, including rushing attempts. He got more work than starter Gus Edwards. Hill had 15 touches for 77 total yards. He could be setup for a similar workload in what could be a high-scoring fantasy teams. This means Hill could have a big fantasy showing. At this point, we might trust Hill more than Edwards, who is a more touchdown dependent player.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Chiefs/Ravens, Lions/49ers.

Low Scoring Games: None.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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The Paur Report

Hot Plays, Fades and Sleepers: Week 4

Player Notes
Diontae Johnson Sep 26 4:10pm ET
Diontae Johnson

Carolina Panthers wide receiver Diontae Johnson (groin) did not practice on Thursday due to a groin injury, according to Ari Meirov of The 33rd Team. Meirov further reported that Carolina expects Johnson to return to practice tomorrow. As a result, fantasy managers should see this as a precautionary measure as it does not look too serious. However, Friday's injury report will clarify any potential designation the former Steeler might have heading into the weekend. After catching just five passes across the first two weeks of the season, Johnson enjoyed a breakout game last weekend as he caught eight passes for 122 yards and a score. Much of this was credited to Andy Dalton stepping into the starting QB role in favor of Bryce Young. If Johnson sees his expected workload on Sunday, he should be considered a high-end WR3 in PPR formats.

From RotoBaller

Quentin Johnston Sep 26 4:00pm ET
Quentin Johnston

Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston will look to make it three weeks in a row with a touchdown when the Chargers face the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4. Johnston scored twice in Week 2 and followed it up with another trip to the end zone in Week 3. The scores and a few long gains have shot the sophomore pass catcher up to an overall WR21 ranking through the first three weeks. Some of his underlying metrics aren't all that pretty, but results count and he's making things happen on the field. A matchup against a strong Kansas City secondary will be a good test for QJ, who leads the Chargers with a 31.6% first read share. There's a concerning floor, but an enticing ceiling as well, leaving him somewhere in the WR3 ranks as long as Justin Herbert (ankle) is able to start under center.

From RotoBaller

Ladd McConkey Sep 26 3:50pm ET
Ladd McConkey

Los Angeles Chargers rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey could end up with a good game in Week 4 despite a tough matchup against a strong Kansas City Chiefs defense. McConkey has been the top receiving option for the Chargers offense, logging a 25.8% target share and a 30.7% air yard share, both leading the team. He's also second on the squad in first read share at 28.9%. The Chiefs secondary has limited most opposing receivers, but they have been somewhat exploited by slot routes, with Kansas City allowing the fourth most receptions to slot receivers so far this season. With quarterback Justin Herbert (ankle) likely to be limited if he even plays, all Chargers pass catchers should be downgraded somewhat, but McConkey is the safest bet to still produce a high floor, and he has some clear upside this week as well.

From RotoBaller

J.K. Dobbins Sep 26 3:40pm ET
J.K. Dobbins

Los Angeles Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins will look to bounce back in a Week 4 game against the Kansas City Chiefs. Dobbins was outstanding in Weeks 1 and 2, averaging 20.5 fantasy points per game before slowing down to a 6.9 point performance in Week 3. He still played on 65% of the team's offensive snaps in Week 3, it was just a down week in general for the Chargers offense. Dobbins is having an excellent start to the season, ranking fourth in explosive run rate and sixth in missed tackles per attempt. He's involved as a runner and as a pass catcher, and is firmly in the RB2 conversation despite a tough Chiefs run defense in Week 4.

From RotoBaller

Gus Edwards Sep 26 3:40pm ET
Gus Edwards

Los Angeles Chargers running back Gus Edwards is not shaping up as a Week 4 fantasy starter in a game against the Kansas City Chiefs. Edwards has faded well behind J.K. Dobbins in the Chargers backfield. Edwards was only in on 35% of the team's offensive snaps in Week 3, totaling just three runs for nine yards total and not drawing a single pass game target. Dobbins, meanwhile, has averaged around 16 fantasy points per game even after a slow Week 3 of his own. This is clearly Dobbins' backfield, and Edwards is only around to play a change of pace and maybe occasional short down role.

From RotoBaller

Justin Herbert Sep 26 3:30pm ET
Justin Herbert

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (ankle) is trending toward playing in a Week 4 matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. Herbert said the team had considered resting him until the Week 5 bye, but he got in a limited practice early in the week and implied that he would at least try to play. Herbert may very well play, but he likely won't be much of a fantasy asset. His injury combined with the Chargers offensive game plan this year plus a tough matchup against the Chiefs defense leaves Herbert as a lower end QB2 for Week 4 fantasy lineups. If he is unable to play, Taylor Heinicke would likely be under center for the Bolts.

From RotoBaller

Alvin Kamara Sep 26 3:00pm ET
Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (hip/ribs) is back at practice on Thursday following a Wednesday absence due to a hip and rib injury. While the veteran could be dealing with a notable injury, the team may be simply being cautious with him since he's the current NFL leader in total touches (71). Hopefully, Kamara does not suffer any setbacks and will be good to go for Sunday's NFC South clash against the Atlanta Falcons. He is currently the No. 2 scorer among running backs in half PPR leagues, so if he's active, he's a must-start in all matchups. If he surprisingly can't play in Week 4, Jamaal Williams would likely see close to a workhorse role and would become a flex consideration.

From RotoBaller

DeVonta Smith Sep 26 2:50pm ET
DeVonta Smith

Philadelphia Eagles wide receivers DeVonta Smith (concussion) and A.J. Brown (hamstring) are both absent from practice on Thursday after missing Wednesday's session with a concussion and hamstring injury, respectively. It's not looking for the star wide receiver duo heading into the Week 4 matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. However, fantasy managers should monitor their practice statuses on Friday and see how the team officially lists them for Sunday. If both are out, young wideouts Jahan Dotson and Johnny Wilson figure to be in elevated roles, but tight end Dallas Goedert should be the No. 1 option in the passing attack.

From RotoBaller

Ka'imi Fairbairn Sep 26 2:40pm ET
Ka'imi Fairbairn

Fantasy managers who selected Houston Texans kicker Ka'imi Fairbairn deep into their drafts have seen an outstanding return on investment so far. The ninth-year pro, whom Houston rewarded with a contract extension before this season, has made six field goals of 50 or more yards and ranks third among fantasy kickers. Given that Fairbairn is tied to one of the league's better offenses, is indoors for a fourth straight game, and plays the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars' defense in Week 4, he's a set-it-and-forget-it option at kicker this week.

From RotoBaller

Jerome Ford Sep 26 2:40pm ET
Jerome Ford

Cleveland Browns running back Jerome Ford (knee) missed Wednesday's practice with a knee injury, but he's back on the field on Thursday leading up to a Week 4 contest against the Las Vegas Raiders. Needless to say, his return is promising for his chances to suit up on Sunday for the AFC clash. Ford is averaging 10.4 half-PPR fantasy points per game this year, but his last two contests were unproductive. However, the Raiders have surrendered the third-most rushing yards to running backs (398) and the second-most fantasy points per game (29.1) to the position. Assuming Ford is active, he could be in a perfect bounce-back spot. Ford should continue to operate as the lead back, at least until Nick Chubb (knee) returns to action. It will likely be a committee when the aging back returns.

From RotoBaller

Carl Lawson Sep 26 2:30pm ET
Carl Lawson

The Dallas Cowboys are elevating defensive end Carl Lawson and cornerback Amani Oruwariye from the practice squad for Thursday night's game against the New York Giants. With cornerback Caelan Carson (shoulder) and safety Markquese Bell (ankle) listed as doubtful for the NFC East class, Dallas is bringing up two defensive reinforcements to the 53-man roster. Lawson spent the last two seasons with the New York Jets and racked up seven sacks in 23 games with the organization. Oruwariye appeared in his most recent regular season game with the Detroit Lions in 2022. In 53 career contests, he has totaled 173 tackles and nine interceptions.

From RotoBaller

Skylar Thompson Sep 26 2:20pm ET
Skylar Thompson

On Thursday, Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel said the team isn't yet prepared to name the starting quarterback for the Week 4 Monday Night Football game against the Tennessee Titans. Skylar Thompson (rib) is being considered day-to-day with a rib injury, but even if he's healthy enough to play, the team could go another direction after a tough showing in Week 3 against the Seattle Seahawks. Miami has Tim Boyle and Tyler Huntley on the roster as the team tries to navigate at least the next few games without Tua Tagovailoa (concussion). Whether Thompson, Boyle, or Huntley starts in Week 4, none of them should be on the fantasy radar in single-QB leagues, and wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle could be in for another quiet outing against a Tennessee defense that has surrendered the third-fewest fantasy points per game to wideouts through two weeks.

From RotoBaller

Britain Covey Sep 26 2:20pm ET
Britain Covey

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Britain Covey (shoulder) was placed on Injured Reserve this week, meaning he will have to miss at least the next four games. However, it was revealed on Thursday that he suffered a broken scapula during the Week 3 win over the New Orleans Saints, and he is expected to be out for at least six weeks. While Covery was not expected to be a significant contributor on offense, injuries to A.J. Brown (hamstring) and DeVonta Smith (concussion) would've put him as a top option in the passing game in Week 4 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If neither Brown nor Smith can suit up, tight end Dallas Goedert will likely operate as Jalen Hurts' No. 1 target, and wideouts Jahan Dotson and Johnny Wilson will see expanded roles.

From RotoBaller

Christian McCaffrey Sep 26 2:00pm ET
Christian McCaffrey

After seeing a specialist in Germany, San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (Achilles, calf) will likely be sidelined for at least a month and "probably closer to a couple of months." It's obvious terrible news for the 49ers and any fantasy managers that took CMC with the first overall pick in fantasy drafts this year. The 28-year-old is currently on Injured Reserve but isn't going to be ready to return for the Niners when he's eligible in Week 5 against the division-rival Arizona Cardinals. When the reigning NFL rushing champion finally does return from his injury, he could also be eased back in so that he doesn't suffer any setbacks. All fantasy managers can do is be patient at this point and hope McCaffrey can regain his pre-injury form when he returns. In the meantime, Jordan Mason is going to continue to be a must-start RB1 in fantasy as San Fran's lead back.

From RotoBaller

Dameon Pierce Sep 26 1:40pm ET
Dameon Pierce

Houston Texans running backs Joe Mixon (ankle) and Dameon Pierce (hamstring) are both sitting out of practice for the second straight day this week on Thursday. Mixon tweaked his ankle in the Week 2 win over the Chicago Bears and did not play in the Week 3 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The 28-year-old is still considered week-to-week and is trending toward missing a second straight game this Sunday versus the division-rival Jacksonville Jaguars. Pierce is apparently getting closer to playing after missing the last two games, and it was even reported that he was expected to return in Week 4, but his practice participation with two DNPs this week says otherwise. As of right now, it's looking unlikely that both Mixon and Pierce suit up, which would put Cam Akers in line for starting RB duties for the Texans for the second straight week.

From RotoBaller

Tank Dell Sep 26 1:40pm ET
Tank Dell

Houston Texans wide receiver Tank Dell (chest), who was listed as day-to-day on Wednesday, is missing his second straight practice of the week on Thursday. Despite his day-to-day label, a report also surfaced on Wednesday that Dell was unlikely to play after getting banged up in the Week 3 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The 24-year-old second-year pass-catcher is dealing with some sore ribs and also injured his hand/wrist last Sunday. It doesn't sound like his injuries are a long-term concern, but fantasy managers that were planning on starting him in Week 4 against the division-rival Jacksonville Jaguars may need to reconsider. Dell may need to practice on Friday to avoid being ruled out entirely. If Dell is limited or out in Week 4, it will mean more targets for both Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins, and possibly tight end Dalton Schultz, who has been a disappointment so far through three weeks.

From RotoBaller

Gardner Minshew II Sep 26 1:30pm ET
Gardner Minshew II

ESPN's Dan Graziano thinks the next quarterback to be benched in the NFL could be Las Vegas Raiders QB Gardner Minshew II. When Minshew won the training camp battle at the position over Aidan O'Connell, it felt like you couldn't rule out the possibility of the two signal-callers flip-flopping back and forth all year. Head coach Antonio Pierce is sticking with Minshew after the embarrassing loss to the Carolina Panthers in Week 4, but Pierce certainly wasn't happy after that loss. Minshew is 24th in QBR (44.1) through the first three weeks of the season. It hasn't all been Minshew's fault, but the Raiders could make the move to O'Connell sooner than later just to shake things up. Minshew's Week 2 upset over the Baltimore Ravens likely bought him at least another week. Some with the Raiders thought O'Connell had a slight edge coming out of offseason workouts over Minshew.

From RotoBaller

Allen Robinson Sep 26 1:20pm ET
Allen Robinson

The Detroit Lions signed veteran wide receiver Allen Robinson II to their active roster on Thursday. Robinson joins Tim Patrick in being elevated from the practice squad to the active roster this week to give the team more insurance at the receiver position behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Kalif Raymond and Isaiah Williams (abdomen). In the Week 3 win over the Arizona Cardinals, Patrick was on the field more than Robinson and caught his only target for an eight-yard gain. Robinson, meanwhile, only played one offensive snap and wasn't targeted. The 31-year-old is strictly receiver depth in Detroit right now and should remain on the waiver wire in all fantasy formats. Last year in 17 starts for the Pittsburgh Steelers, Robinson managed 34 receptions on 49 targets for only 280 yards and no touchdowns.

From RotoBaller

Trevor Lawrence Sep 26 1:20pm ET
Trevor Lawrence

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has completed just 52.8% of his passes for 560 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in the first three weeks in 2024, all losses. Lawrence's completion percentage ranks 31st in the NFL behind Panthers QB Bryce Young (55.4%) and just ahead of Colts QB Anthony Richardson (49.3%). Head coach Doug Pederson said Lawrence could be pressing a bit too much to try and make big plays for a struggling offense, but he remains confident his QB can turn it around. Lawrence doesn't think he's pressing but instead said he has gotten "undisciplined with my eyes" and his "feet have gotten sloppy." The 24-year-old former first overall pick has also looked rushed at times. He'll enter a Week 4 divisional matchup looking to get the Jags their first win, and he'll be an obvious QB2 with his fantasy stock falling after a rough start to the year.

From RotoBaller

Bucky Irving Sep 26 1:10pm ET
Bucky Irving

Tampa Bay Buccaneers rookie running back Bucky Irving (hamstring) isn't practicing on Thursday but said he will be ready to play on Sunday in Week 4 against the visiting Philadelphia Eagles. Irving was listed as a limited participant in the first practice of the week on Wednesday, so a downgrade to a DNP isn't exactly ideal. How much the 22-year-old does in practice on Friday will ultimately decide whether he's listed as questionable on the final Week 4 injury report. Irving has been the more elusive and more efficient backfield option for the Bucs so far through three weeks over Rachaad White, but Irving's injury could complicate things this weekend. In the Week 3 loss to the Denver Broncos, Irving had nine carries for a team-high 70 yards and also caught three passes for 14 yards. He's a worth bench stash in fantasy for now, even if you don't have White rostered.

From RotoBaller