Lineup Prep: Championship Games
Wed Jan 24 8:44am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Gibbs can produce big this week
Last week was sure entertaining. Let’s hope the games this week are just as good. I sure think it is possible. The matchups seems pretty even to me. I know the 49ers are pretty good favorites against the Lions at home, but I think Detroit can keep it close. And the Chiefs/Ravens game is setup to be fantastic. These teams are both rolling right now. We get to see two of the greatest quarterbacks in football battle it out to make the Super Bowl. This should be fun.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
Those were some games last week. It was fun to watch, especially that Chiefs/Bills game. You have to feel for Josh Allen. He had a great run in the playoffs, but just can’t get over that Kansas City hump. It was there for the taking last week for Allen, but his field goal kicker let him down. I still think Allen is an elite level quarterback than can win the big game. It will come for him sooner than later. He is just running into a buzz saw with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs right now.
I don’t think Brock Purdy silenced the doubters after last week’s game. He was not great until that last game-winning drive. He still looked a little shaky to me most of that game. And the loss of Deebo Samuel could be huge for him and the offense. Samuel seems to be a calming influence for Purdy. I am interested to see him play this week. This could be make or break for him.
Aaron Jones sure is a difference maker when healthy. He was unbelievable for the Packers down the stretch, having five straight 100-yard rushing games. The issue is Jones is hard to trust because of his injury history and age. He is 29 years old and missed five games each of the last two seasons and played a full season just once the last five years. I love his talent, but have a hard time taking him on draft day - even after his huge finish to this season.
I’m happy for Baker Mayfield. He seems to have found a home after a rocky start to his career. He was terrific for the Bucs with that great group of receivers. And he almost played that team into the NFC Championship game last week, throwing three more touchdown passes. I don’t see the Bucs letting him loose and I think he could be a top-10 fantasy quarterback once again next season in Tampa. I don’t think it was a fluke this year.
I am really hoping the Texans make a run at Saquon Barkley this offseason. Could you imagine him in that offense? I think he would be a great fit and a huge spark for that running game in Houston. I think this would just be an ideal landing spot for Barkley when it comes to his fantasy value. Let’s make this happen!
The Ravens have a great team and are the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but can you imagine that offense with a healthy JK Dobbins or Keaton Mitchell all season. Both these backs are difference makers in my eyes and big upgrades over what they are using right now. I still think Dobbins can be a star in this league. Just something to keep in mind next season when these guys are back playing.
I like the Titans hire of Brian Callahan as their next head coach. He should be a positive for that offense, especially quarterback Will Levis. Hopefully, he can take this offense to a new level and give us a bunch of fantasy relevant players. Callahan is a bright, young offensive mind that has been integral in the development of Joe Burrow. Let’s hope he can do the same for Levis.
News and Notes: The Lions signed tight end Zach Ertz to their practice squad on Monday. Ertz gives the Lions depth at the position after an injury to Brock Wright.
HOT PLAYS
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. With Deebo Samuel very iffy to play, Aiyuk should be the top target at receiver for the 49ers this week. He didn’t do much last week, but was targeted six times in the game, which was encouraging. He gets a much better matchup this week against the Lions, a team that has allowed five straight 300-yard passing games. Aiyuk can have a big showing in this matchup.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions. Gibbs had a big game last week, topping 100 total yards while scoring a touchdown. He has touchdowns each of the first two playoff games for the Lions. He has 16-plus fantasy points each of those games. Gibbs is playing well and should be heavily involved in the offense again this week. The 49ers have been great against the run much of the year, but shown some issues stopping the run lately. San Francisco allowed 136-rushing yards last week and given up 100-plus rushing yards four of five games.
COLD PLAYS
Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff had a great overall season, but his fantasy numbers haven’t been too off the charts. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points three of five games. He is getting his yards, but the Lions tend to run the ball in more for scores than pass. He might be an iffy fantasy play this week against the 49ers. San Francisco allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season.
Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens. Edwards has failed to score each of his last two games, giving him really poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than six fantasy points each of his last two games, failing to hit 50-rushing yards each of those games. Edwards could have a similar showing this week against the Chiefs, a team that allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs. Kansas City allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season.
SLEEPERS
Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens. Bateman had three receptions for 39 yards on three targets last week. He had a solid game but failed to hit double-digit fantasy points once again. The good news is he got his looks once again. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense, but Bateman could have more favorable coverages than Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. Those guys should draw the tougher assignments, leaving Bateman a chance to make some big plays in the passing game. He could surprise this week.
Justice Hill, RB, Ravens. Hill led the Ravens in rushing last week, including rushing attempts. He got more work than starter Gus Edwards. Hill had 15 touches for 77 total yards. He could be setup for a similar workload in what could be a high-scoring fantasy teams. This means Hill could have a big fantasy showing. At this point, we might trust Hill more than Edwards, who is a more touchdown dependent player.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Chiefs/Ravens, Lions/49ers.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 3
Dynasty | Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet had 91 rushing yards, three catches, 16 receiving yards and two touchdowns in Seattle's win against Miami. Dynasty Analysis: The Seahawks have been blessed with the league's easiest schedule (Denver, Miami, Tua-less Miami), but that shouldn't take away from the progress we've seen with Charbonnet. If Kenneth Walker continues to miss time, he's an easy "set it and forget it" lineup option. At this point, it also wouldn't be shocking to see Seattle move to a bit of a committee moving forward with as well as he's played. Charbonnet remains a high-upside handcuff and maybe more as the season rolls on.
Dynasty | Panthers quarterback Andy Dalton completed 26-of-37 passes for 319 yards, with three touchdowns and no interceptions in Carolina's win over the RaIders. Dynasty Analysis: Oh boy. In just one start, Dalton had more yards, three more touchdowns and three fewer interceptions than Bryce Young had in his first two starts of the year combined. While Carolina may be excited to win this game, it also could have solidified the worst - the problem clearly was Young at the helm. With Dalton making this team more than competitive for at least one week, it's clear we won't see Young next week and may not for a while. Young's dynasty arrow is going to go down even further after this.
Dynasty | Raiders tight end Brock Bowers had three catches for 41 yards in the Raiders loss to Carolina. Dynasty Analysis: The Raiders offense was a bit of a mess today against the Panthers and Bowers couldn't shake himself through the ineptitude. It was a disappointing day for him but also what amounts to a blip on the radar in terms of his season. Bowers is a clear lineup lock at this point and while he may post some clunkers here and there, his upside seems real.
Dynasty | Panthers wide receiver Diontae Johnson had eight catches for 122 yards and a touchdown in Carolina's win against the Raiders. Dynasty Analysis: Andy Dalton ignited the Panthers offense and nobody benefited more than Johnson, who posted a whopping 14 targets on the day. It was a much-needed breakout for Johnson, who was nearly invisible the first two weeks of the season. While we need to see more from Dalton moving forward, Johnson will clearly be in the mix for lineups moving forward.
Dynasty | Raiders running back Zamir White had 34 rushing yards in the Raiders loss to the Panthers. Dynasty Analysis: At this point, White just simply doesn't look like an NFL or fantasy viable option at running back, despite a golden opportunity to start the year. His dynasty value is starting to sink as it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Raiders either bring in another veteran or start playing Alexander Mattison a little more. While the game script today didn't help White, we just haven't seen anything in three weeks to recommend White in fantasy lineups moving forward.
Dynasty | 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings had 11 catches for 175 yards and three touchdowns in San Francisco's loss to the Rams. Dynasty Analysis: The 49ers can point a lot of fingers as to who to blame for this one, but Jennings clearly did his part. After a couple of solid outings to start the season (he had seven catches for 101 yards in the first two games), Jennings just went nuclear in this one. It's going to be tough to recommend him in lineups with Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk still entrenched as the top two options. However, Jennings has real promise and has now solidified his spot on dynasty rosters permanently.
Dynasty | Rams running back Kyren Williams had 89 rushing yards, twol catches, 27 receiving yards and three touchdowns in a surprising win against the 49ers. Dynasty Analysis: Williams looked like the 2023 version of himself in this one, consistently churning out tough yards and finding his way into the end zone every chance he had. It's clear the Rams are going to use him as their workhorse with the likes of Ronnie Rivers and Blake Corum simply serving as emergency options moving forward. It's a big development in dynasty leagues as Williams again looks like a solid RB1.
Dynasty | Cardinals rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr had five catches for 64 yards and a touchdown in a loss to the Lions. Dynasty Analysis: After a quiet week one, we've seen Harrison establish himself as one of the league's brightest young stars. In fact, Harrison and Malik Nabers look like the best pair of rookie wide receivers we've seen in a long, long time. With Kyler Murray looking his way early and often (Harrison has 19 targets in the past two games), he looks like a lineup staple from here on out.
Dynasty | Ravens running back Derrick Henry had 151 rushing yards, one catch, 23 receiving yards and two touchdowns in a win at Dallas. Dynasty Analysis: After some questionable usage over the first two weeks, Henry doubled his season yardage in this one, punishing the Cowboys in the process. While it's clear he's not going to be used much as a receiver, Henry still has weekly RB1 upside moving forward as the Ravens are starting to build their offense around his unique skill - punching people in the mouth. Henry will be a high-upside next week and remains a solid target for dynasty managers who are in "win now" mode.
Dynasty | Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott had six rushing yards, one catch and six receiving yards in a loss to the Ravens. Dynasty Analysis: Rico Dowdle had 11 touches, while Elliott had just four. The game script was flipped quickly on the Cowboys as the Ravens jumped out quickly in this one. Still, Elliott has been ineffective this year and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Dallas elevate Dalvin Cook from the practice squad to see if they can't give their running game a spark. Elliott doesn't belong in lineups at the moment and may not belong on rosters much longer, either.
Dynasty | Colts wide receiver Adonai Mitchell was held catchless in a win against the Bears. Dynasty Analysis: Mitchell has just two catches for 32 yards on the season as Anthony Richardson continues to struggle. This is a big-time buzzkill for a rookie many were hoping would break out early. While all hope is not lost (not even close), Mitchell is currently going to need to stay on dynasty benches for the foreseeable future. If you believe in Richardson, he could also be a decent buy-low at the moment.
Dallas Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb had a below-par day in the 28-25 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Lamb was targeted seven times, securing four catches for 67 yards. The 25-year-old lost a fumble deep into Baltimore territory in the first quarter, which ended up leading to a big Baltimore lead early on in the game. Lamb will look to put together a stronger fantasy performance on Thursday with a quick turnaround against the New York Giants.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys receiver KaVontae Turpin saw involvement in the passing game in Sunday's loss to Baltimore. Primarily a return man, the speedy TCU product caught all three of his targets for 51 yards and a touchdown. In an offense looking for a consistent third option in the passing game behind CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson, Turpin's performance was encouraging for Dallas. That being said, he remains firmly off of the fantasy radar until he sees more consistent usage.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott was seldom used in the Week 3 loss. Given that his role is more of an early-down grinder type of back at this stage in his career, the game script was not favorable for Elliott today as Dallas was playing from behind all game. He rushed three times for six yards and caught a pass for six yards. Elliott and the Cowboys have a tight turnaround, as they will suit up on Thursday against the Giants.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers running back Jordan Mason returned to earth in a 27-24 loss to the Rams in Los Angeles on Sunday. He took 19 carries for 77 yards and caught both of his two targets for 11 yards receiving. As the stat line suggests, Mason wasn't bad in this one but failed to find the end zone for the first time this year, limiting his fantasy day. In the first two games of 2024, Mason completely dominated the running back touches but rookie Isaac Guerendo cut into his workload with five carries of his own for 19 yards against LA. It wasn't the RB1 performance that fantasy managers were looking for in Week 3 but Mason didn't look bad. There could come a time while Christian McCaffrey (Achilles) is out that Guerendo becomes even more involved, but it doesn't appear to be a worry just yet. Mason will resume his bell-cow role when the 49ers host the New England Patriots next Sunday.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson returned to the lineup on Sunday after a one-week absence. His impact was instantly felt, as he led the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards in the loss to Baltimore. Ferguson was targeted 11 times, securing six catches for 95 yards. With how poor tight end play has been this season, Ferguson's outing was encouraging for fantasy managers. He should remain a top option at the position going into Thursday night's game with the New York Giants.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott strung together an impressive Week 3 fantasy performance in the 28-25 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Prescott struggled in the first half, but came alive in the second half. The veteran quarterback completed 28-of-51 passes for 379 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for seven yards and a touchdown on two carries. The outing was Prescott's best fantasy performance of the season through the first three weeks. Prescott and the Cowboys have a quick turnaround, as they will take on the New York Giants on Thursday night.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle saw the bulk of the backfield work in Week 3's loss to Baltimore. Dowdle rushed eight times for 32 yards, accounting for 62% of the team's rushing yards. He was targeted five times in the heavy-volume passing attack, catching three passes for 24 yards. Dowdle outplayed Ezekiel Elliott in the loss, although both backs will likely see similar usage moving forward. The Cowboys have a short week, as they take on the New York Giants on Thursday.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers went from one of the team's top fantasy finishers in Week 2 to one of their worst in the first win of the season. The game script went away from Flowers as he hauled in three of his four targets for 20 yards and took one carry for only three yards. The speedy wideout still hasn't seen many downfield targets, but his high target volume as well as the rushing attempts in each game keep him involved in the offense most of the time. Lamar Jackson and company didn't do much damage through the air with just 182 total passing yards compared to 274 yards on the ground. Flowers will look to bounce back against the Buffalo Bills in Week 4, which will likely need a bigger offensive output to get the win.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews continues to disappoint to start the season, but he has brought a new low to fantasy managers that stuck with him in Week 3. During the 28-25 win over the Dallas Cowboys, Andrews only received one target and put up goose eggs across the board. His counterpart, Isaiah Likely, only recorded one target as well which turned into one catch for four yards, so it wasn't much of a tight end game in this one. Andrews' best finish through three weeks was TE10 in half-PPR formats, and he now has six receptions for 65 yards on eight targets. At this rate, neither one of the Andrews nor Likely are every-week starters in shallower fantasy leagues until they show some consistency. Andrews will look to bounce back at home against the Buffalo Bills in Week 4.
From RotoBaller
