Lineup Prep: Championship Games
Wed Jan 24 8:44am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Gibbs can produce big this week
Last week was sure entertaining. Let’s hope the games this week are just as good. I sure think it is possible. The matchups seems pretty even to me. I know the 49ers are pretty good favorites against the Lions at home, but I think Detroit can keep it close. And the Chiefs/Ravens game is setup to be fantastic. These teams are both rolling right now. We get to see two of the greatest quarterbacks in football battle it out to make the Super Bowl. This should be fun.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
Those were some games last week. It was fun to watch, especially that Chiefs/Bills game. You have to feel for Josh Allen. He had a great run in the playoffs, but just can’t get over that Kansas City hump. It was there for the taking last week for Allen, but his field goal kicker let him down. I still think Allen is an elite level quarterback than can win the big game. It will come for him sooner than later. He is just running into a buzz saw with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs right now.
I don’t think Brock Purdy silenced the doubters after last week’s game. He was not great until that last game-winning drive. He still looked a little shaky to me most of that game. And the loss of Deebo Samuel could be huge for him and the offense. Samuel seems to be a calming influence for Purdy. I am interested to see him play this week. This could be make or break for him.
Aaron Jones sure is a difference maker when healthy. He was unbelievable for the Packers down the stretch, having five straight 100-yard rushing games. The issue is Jones is hard to trust because of his injury history and age. He is 29 years old and missed five games each of the last two seasons and played a full season just once the last five years. I love his talent, but have a hard time taking him on draft day - even after his huge finish to this season.
I’m happy for Baker Mayfield. He seems to have found a home after a rocky start to his career. He was terrific for the Bucs with that great group of receivers. And he almost played that team into the NFC Championship game last week, throwing three more touchdown passes. I don’t see the Bucs letting him loose and I think he could be a top-10 fantasy quarterback once again next season in Tampa. I don’t think it was a fluke this year.
I am really hoping the Texans make a run at Saquon Barkley this offseason. Could you imagine him in that offense? I think he would be a great fit and a huge spark for that running game in Houston. I think this would just be an ideal landing spot for Barkley when it comes to his fantasy value. Let’s make this happen!
The Ravens have a great team and are the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but can you imagine that offense with a healthy JK Dobbins or Keaton Mitchell all season. Both these backs are difference makers in my eyes and big upgrades over what they are using right now. I still think Dobbins can be a star in this league. Just something to keep in mind next season when these guys are back playing.
I like the Titans hire of Brian Callahan as their next head coach. He should be a positive for that offense, especially quarterback Will Levis. Hopefully, he can take this offense to a new level and give us a bunch of fantasy relevant players. Callahan is a bright, young offensive mind that has been integral in the development of Joe Burrow. Let’s hope he can do the same for Levis.
News and Notes: The Lions signed tight end Zach Ertz to their practice squad on Monday. Ertz gives the Lions depth at the position after an injury to Brock Wright.
HOT PLAYS
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. With Deebo Samuel very iffy to play, Aiyuk should be the top target at receiver for the 49ers this week. He didn’t do much last week, but was targeted six times in the game, which was encouraging. He gets a much better matchup this week against the Lions, a team that has allowed five straight 300-yard passing games. Aiyuk can have a big showing in this matchup.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions. Gibbs had a big game last week, topping 100 total yards while scoring a touchdown. He has touchdowns each of the first two playoff games for the Lions. He has 16-plus fantasy points each of those games. Gibbs is playing well and should be heavily involved in the offense again this week. The 49ers have been great against the run much of the year, but shown some issues stopping the run lately. San Francisco allowed 136-rushing yards last week and given up 100-plus rushing yards four of five games.
COLD PLAYS
Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff had a great overall season, but his fantasy numbers haven’t been too off the charts. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points three of five games. He is getting his yards, but the Lions tend to run the ball in more for scores than pass. He might be an iffy fantasy play this week against the 49ers. San Francisco allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season.
Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens. Edwards has failed to score each of his last two games, giving him really poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than six fantasy points each of his last two games, failing to hit 50-rushing yards each of those games. Edwards could have a similar showing this week against the Chiefs, a team that allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs. Kansas City allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season.
SLEEPERS
Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens. Bateman had three receptions for 39 yards on three targets last week. He had a solid game but failed to hit double-digit fantasy points once again. The good news is he got his looks once again. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense, but Bateman could have more favorable coverages than Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. Those guys should draw the tougher assignments, leaving Bateman a chance to make some big plays in the passing game. He could surprise this week.
Justice Hill, RB, Ravens. Hill led the Ravens in rushing last week, including rushing attempts. He got more work than starter Gus Edwards. Hill had 15 touches for 77 total yards. He could be setup for a similar workload in what could be a high-scoring fantasy teams. This means Hill could have a big fantasy showing. At this point, we might trust Hill more than Edwards, who is a more touchdown dependent player.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Chiefs/Ravens, Lions/49ers.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Washington Commanders new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury appears to be using some two-running back sets during mandatory minicamp this week involving Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler. In what will be a vastly different offense under Kingsbury in 2024 with rookie first-round quarterback Jayden Daniels at the helm, Washington figures to use Robinson as more of the between-the-tackles, early-down back, with Ekeler serving as the primary pass-catcher out of the backfield. The 25-year-old Robinson had 43 targets in 2023, but he stands to lose a hefty amount of targets to Ekeler this year. With more competition from Ekeler, B-Rob is going to need to remain productive and hold onto the football to be a viable RB3/flex for fantasy managers in standard-scoring leagues. Ekeler should be more valuable as an RB3/flex in point-per-reception formats.
Dynasty | The Jaguars have signed quarterback Trevor Lawrence to a contract extension. Dynasty Analysis: Lawrence and the Jags agree to a five-year, $275 million contract extension with a reported $200 million guaranteed, including $142 million up front. Lawrence also received a $37.5 million signing bonus. It's a massive contract for a quarterback billed as the "next great thing" but realistically performing as "the next good thing." Lawrence is currently ranked as our QB9 and that seems about right for a player who has yet to really show he's truly an elite fantasy option.
The Miami Dolphins officially signed free-agent S Marcus Maye (Saints) on Thursday, June 13.
From TheHuddle
New York Giants DT Jordan Phillips (wrist) has not participated in minicamp and was limited to individual work during offseason activities as he recovers from wrist surgery.
From TheHuddle
Free-agent DE Calais Campbell (Falcons) agreed to terms with the Miami Dolphins Thursday, June 13, according to sources. Terms of the contract were not disclosed.
From TheHuddle
Updating a previous report, Cleveland Browns DE Myles Garrett (hamstring) is expected to be fine despite suffering a hamstring injury during practice Thursday, June 13, according to head coach Kevin Stefanski.
From TheHuddle
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson could earn more pre-snap responsibilities in his second year under offensive coordinator Todd Monken, according to recent comments from quarterbacks coach Tee Martin. 'It takes him understanding how we're blocking things up front to get us to the best run and the best pass for whatever coverage we're facing. He's accepted it and done a heck of a job of getting us into the right play, and today was probably the best day in a long time of him really just having the freedom to do what he wants to do. We saw some really good plays and some positive gains with him doing that today,' Martin said.
Fantasy Spin: Jackson reportedly dropped 20 pounds this offseason and appears to be taking on more of a leadership role than he ever has in 2024. The addition of Derrick Henry - combined with what should be a more explosive Jackson than we have seen in recent years - could set up the two-time NFL MVP for another career year. Jackson should be considered a strong overall QB1 candidate this season.
From TheHuddle
Baltimore Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey (undisclosed) has been limited to mostly individual work this offseason, but head coach John Harbaugh suggested after the team's final minicamp practice on Thursday, June 13, that Humphrey 'should be ready for training camp.'
From TheHuddle
New Orleans Saints QB Taysom Hill reportedly agreed to a restructured contract that converted his base salary to a signing bonus and lowered his salary cap number from $15.7 million to $6.8 million.
From TheHuddle
Cleveland Browns DE Myles Garrett (hamstring) suffered an apparent left hamstring injury during an early defensive line drill during minicamp practice on Thursday, June 13.
From TheHuddle
Washington Commanders QBs Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota each saw significant snaps with the first team during the spring and nothing has been determined yet in regards to which one will start the season, according to head coach Dan Quinn on Thursday, June 13.
Fantasy Spin: By all accounts, Daniels has been sharp so far - a sentiment that Quinn confirmed Thursday. It would likely take a meltdown of epic proportions for the No. 2 overall pick in this spring's draft to not win the job. Assuming that is the case, Daniels' combination of anticipation and athleticism should make him a strong fantasy QB1 option right out of the gate.
From TheHuddle
New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara skipped the team's final mandatory minicamp practice on Thursday, June 13, due to what is believed to be contract-related reasons, according to Jeff Duncan of NOLA.com.
Fantasy Spin: Kamara will get nearly a $10 million bump on his base salary over the last two years, so that is likely not the issue. NFL Network's Mike Garafolo reports the two sides have been discussing a contract restructure for a few months, likely with an eye on 2025 when Kamara is set to make $25 million. Expect the two sides to get something worked out over the next month or two to keep Kamara in New Orleans at a much lower number past this season.
From TheHuddle
Free-agent WR DeAndre Carter (Raiders) signed an undisclosed deal with the Chicago Bears, according to sources Thursday, June 13.
From TheHuddle
Buffalo Bills running back James Cook dropped five passes last season, which ranked sixth among all qualified running backs. Early in offseason activities, the third-year pro out of Georgia has continued to struggle in that area, according to Bills reporter Alex Brasky. "James Cook allowed a pass to bounce off his hands, high into the air near the start of team drills at Wednesday's mandatory minicamp." Brasky wrote, "Cook encountered issues with drops last season and has done little to ramp down those concerns during offseason activities." While this is somewhat of a concern, it can often be overplayed when analyzing a player's fantasy football value. After catching 44 passes for 445 yards and ranking second among running backs in yards per reception, the team is unlikely to pull back his receiving workload. That said, rookie fourth-rounder Ray Davis caught 62 passes over his final two collegiate seasons in the SEC and could become a factor on third downs.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers head coach Dave Canales wouldn't say whether or not second-round rookie running back Jonathon Brooks (knee) will be ready for the start of training camp next month. The Texas product is recovering from a torn ACL that he suffered on November 11 against TCU last year. Although Canales did not provide an update, he did say the team would ease him into action when he's ready to go. While Brooks should eventually be the clear lead ball carrier in Carolina, he might be on a snap count early in his career. On top of that, the Panthers offense is likely to be one of the worst units in the NFL once again. Brooks is one of the tougher players to evaluate in fantasy football, but he should be able to produce at least low-end RB2 numbers in the second half of his rookie campaign. His upside could be capped if quarterback Bryce Young and his supporting cast don't take a significant step forward in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs has had an "outstanding" offseason, according to head coach Matt LaFleur. The 2022 fourth-round pick hauled in 59 passes for 674 yards and eight touchdowns last season, and he delivered a six-catch, 151-yard, one-touchdown performance in the Wild Card win over the Dallas Cowboys. The 24-year-old should remain one of Jordan Love's favorite targets in 2024, though the team's pass-catching group is crowded with Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave, and Tucker Kraft. Given the uncertainty of the target pecking order, all of the Green Bay receivers and tight ends have an ADP outside the top 70 picks, and Doubs presents a potential value pick at his 138.4 ADP in classic FFPC drafts.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Marquise Brown signed a one-year deal with the organization this offseason, and he has been heavily involved in the passing attack during OTAs and minicamp. The 2019 first-round pick has a path to the No. 1 wide receiver role, especially with Rashee Rice's legal troubles and Xavier Worthy's (hamstring) injury that is keeping him out of practice. Brown said he is building chemistry with Patrick Mahomes early in camp. "It has been good, from when we first started going back in Dallas until now," Brown said. "Just keep improving. He's trusting me more, so that's good." While "Hollywood" has not lived up to his first-round status, he has a 1,000-yard season under his belt and has hauled in 313 passes for 3,644 yards, and 28 touchdowns through his first 72 games with the Baltimore Ravens and Arizona Cardinals. He's unlikely to be a volume hog with Kansas City, but he should have chances for several spike weeks catching passes from the best quarterback of his career.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson (leg) suffered a lower-leg injury and is expected to miss a good amount of time, according to sources. While it's unclear if Johnson is now a candidate to miss the start of the 2024 regular season, at the very least he's going to miss the start of training camp next month and valuable repetitions as the team looks to get ready for next season. The 27-year-old's injury will open up more reps for the likes of Foster Moreau, Taysom Hill, rookie Dallin Holker, Michael Jacobson and Tommy Hudson this summer. Johnson took a step back in 2023 and finished with 37 receptions for 368 yards and four touchdowns in 13 games (11 starts) in his fourth year in the NFL. Even if Johnson is ready for Week 1 of the regular season, Hill will probably cut into his targets enough to keep him as a low-upside, touchdown-dependent TE2 in fantasy.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase wasn't fully participating in practice at mandatory minicamp for the second straight day on Wednesday and was in tennis shoes with no helmet on, but he did take part in the install portion on both days. Chase didn't take part in 7-on-7 drills on Tuesday. The 24-year-old is seeking a long-term extension from the club, and while he is in attendance so he won't get fined, it appears he's not doing much on the field. Barring a surprise development, the Bengals and Chase should be able to eventually work something out to keep him in Cincinnati for the long haul. The former fifth overall pick in 2021 out of LSU has been a Pro Bowler in each of his first three seasons in the NFL and has gone over 1,000 receiving yards in all three years as well with a combined 29 touchdowns in 45 regular-season starts. Chase is an easy top-five fantasy wideout.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (wrist) said it is "tough to say" what percentage health-wise he is at right now but reiterated "I'll be ready to go by the season." Burrow didn't look right early on in 2023 after injuring his calf during training camp last summer, and then he suffered a season-ending right-wrist injury in Week 11 against the Baltimore Ravens. The former first overall pick in 2020 out of LSU has bookended his four seasons in the NFL so far with serious injuries, but he's been a solid QB1 option for fantasy managers otherwise. The 27-year-old should be full-go for training camp next month and should be ready for the Week 1 season opener this fall, barring any setbacks with his wrist in training camp and the preseason. With one of the better one-two punches at wideout in the league, Burrow should be a fine midrange QB1 target in fantasy drafts after the big names at the position come off the board.
From RotoBaller
