Lineup Prep: Championship Games
Wed Jan 24 8:44am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Gibbs can produce big this week
Last week was sure entertaining. Let’s hope the games this week are just as good. I sure think it is possible. The matchups seems pretty even to me. I know the 49ers are pretty good favorites against the Lions at home, but I think Detroit can keep it close. And the Chiefs/Ravens game is setup to be fantastic. These teams are both rolling right now. We get to see two of the greatest quarterbacks in football battle it out to make the Super Bowl. This should be fun.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
Those were some games last week. It was fun to watch, especially that Chiefs/Bills game. You have to feel for Josh Allen. He had a great run in the playoffs, but just can’t get over that Kansas City hump. It was there for the taking last week for Allen, but his field goal kicker let him down. I still think Allen is an elite level quarterback than can win the big game. It will come for him sooner than later. He is just running into a buzz saw with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs right now.
I don’t think Brock Purdy silenced the doubters after last week’s game. He was not great until that last game-winning drive. He still looked a little shaky to me most of that game. And the loss of Deebo Samuel could be huge for him and the offense. Samuel seems to be a calming influence for Purdy. I am interested to see him play this week. This could be make or break for him.
Aaron Jones sure is a difference maker when healthy. He was unbelievable for the Packers down the stretch, having five straight 100-yard rushing games. The issue is Jones is hard to trust because of his injury history and age. He is 29 years old and missed five games each of the last two seasons and played a full season just once the last five years. I love his talent, but have a hard time taking him on draft day - even after his huge finish to this season.
I’m happy for Baker Mayfield. He seems to have found a home after a rocky start to his career. He was terrific for the Bucs with that great group of receivers. And he almost played that team into the NFC Championship game last week, throwing three more touchdown passes. I don’t see the Bucs letting him loose and I think he could be a top-10 fantasy quarterback once again next season in Tampa. I don’t think it was a fluke this year.
I am really hoping the Texans make a run at Saquon Barkley this offseason. Could you imagine him in that offense? I think he would be a great fit and a huge spark for that running game in Houston. I think this would just be an ideal landing spot for Barkley when it comes to his fantasy value. Let’s make this happen!
The Ravens have a great team and are the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but can you imagine that offense with a healthy JK Dobbins or Keaton Mitchell all season. Both these backs are difference makers in my eyes and big upgrades over what they are using right now. I still think Dobbins can be a star in this league. Just something to keep in mind next season when these guys are back playing.
I like the Titans hire of Brian Callahan as their next head coach. He should be a positive for that offense, especially quarterback Will Levis. Hopefully, he can take this offense to a new level and give us a bunch of fantasy relevant players. Callahan is a bright, young offensive mind that has been integral in the development of Joe Burrow. Let’s hope he can do the same for Levis.
News and Notes: The Lions signed tight end Zach Ertz to their practice squad on Monday. Ertz gives the Lions depth at the position after an injury to Brock Wright.
HOT PLAYS
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. With Deebo Samuel very iffy to play, Aiyuk should be the top target at receiver for the 49ers this week. He didn’t do much last week, but was targeted six times in the game, which was encouraging. He gets a much better matchup this week against the Lions, a team that has allowed five straight 300-yard passing games. Aiyuk can have a big showing in this matchup.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions. Gibbs had a big game last week, topping 100 total yards while scoring a touchdown. He has touchdowns each of the first two playoff games for the Lions. He has 16-plus fantasy points each of those games. Gibbs is playing well and should be heavily involved in the offense again this week. The 49ers have been great against the run much of the year, but shown some issues stopping the run lately. San Francisco allowed 136-rushing yards last week and given up 100-plus rushing yards four of five games.
COLD PLAYS
Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff had a great overall season, but his fantasy numbers haven’t been too off the charts. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points three of five games. He is getting his yards, but the Lions tend to run the ball in more for scores than pass. He might be an iffy fantasy play this week against the 49ers. San Francisco allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season.
Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens. Edwards has failed to score each of his last two games, giving him really poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than six fantasy points each of his last two games, failing to hit 50-rushing yards each of those games. Edwards could have a similar showing this week against the Chiefs, a team that allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs. Kansas City allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season.
SLEEPERS
Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens. Bateman had three receptions for 39 yards on three targets last week. He had a solid game but failed to hit double-digit fantasy points once again. The good news is he got his looks once again. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense, but Bateman could have more favorable coverages than Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. Those guys should draw the tougher assignments, leaving Bateman a chance to make some big plays in the passing game. He could surprise this week.
Justice Hill, RB, Ravens. Hill led the Ravens in rushing last week, including rushing attempts. He got more work than starter Gus Edwards. Hill had 15 touches for 77 total yards. He could be setup for a similar workload in what could be a high-scoring fantasy teams. This means Hill could have a big fantasy showing. At this point, we might trust Hill more than Edwards, who is a more touchdown dependent player.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Chiefs/Ravens, Lions/49ers.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 3
Detroit Lions linebacker Derrick Barnes (knee) didn't return to Sunday's win over the Arizona Cardinals. He suffered a knee injury due to a chop block and needed to be carted to the locker room. Barnes totaled nine tackles entering Week 3. But if the injury keeps him on the shelf, Malcolm Rodriguez would be in line to see more work.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks kicker Jason Myers missed his first kick of 2024 on Sunday. Myers went 1/2 on field goals and 3/3 on extra points. He finished with seven fantasy points. The Seahawks offense has been in scoring positions all season affording Myers plenty of chances to score. He will look to continue his solid season in Week 4 against the Detroit Lions.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith threw for 289 yards and one touchdown in Week 3. However, Smith threw two unfortunate interceptions. Smith's interceptions were not entirely his fault. Nonetheless, they resulted in negative points for fantasy. Smith ended the day with 13.36 fantasy points. Smith has thrown one touchdown in each game this season. He will need to have a larger statistical output to be more of a factor in fantasy moving forward. Even so, he has generally been a high-end QB2 in each week this season.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba had another quiet outing on Sunday. Smith-Njigba led the Seahawks in targets with seven. However, he only turned those targets into three receptions for 39 yards. After a huge breakout in Week 2, fantasy managers were hoping for an encore. The fact that Smith-Njigba led the team in targets indicates that the Seahawks are still very committed to getting him the ball. As long as that trend continues, Smith-Njigba should be fine in fantasy.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet had a big day filling in for Kenneth Walker III (oblique) on Sunday. Charbonnet rushed for 91 yards and two touchdowns and caught three passes for 16 yards. Most importantly, Charbonnet ran for 5.1 yards per carry after two wildly inefficient outings in Weeks 1 and 2. Charbonnet has been excellent for fantasy in the absence of Walker. Walker is hoping to return in Week 4, but Charbonnet has demonstrated that he can be a solid complement. It will be worth monitoring to see how this backfield breaks down moving forward.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos WR Courtland Sutton finished with seven receptions for a game-high 68 yards and a game-best 11 targets in Week 3 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Fantasy Spin: The stat line still wasn't huge for fantasy managers, but it was Sutton's best production of the season. It's tough with a rookie QB, and Bo Nix has started slow out of the gates, with no touchdown passes in three games. Sutton is still worth a look in fantasy leagues of 12 or more teams, but consider him more of a WR4 or flex option.
From TheHuddle
Denver Broncos WR Josh Reynolds ended up with two catches for 36 yards on his two targets in Week 3 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Fantasy Spin: Reynolds was the most productive Denver wideout for the first two games, especially in Week 2, but Courtland Sutton was back on top in Week 3. With erratic play at the quarterback position, starting any Denver receiver is a risky proposition at the moment. Until Nix, or someone else, steps up under center, Reynolds' fantasy ceiling is rather limited. The Broncos travel to meet the New York Jets in Week 4.
From TheHuddle
Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride (head) finished Sunday's loss to the Lions by amassing three catches for 25 yards. He was targeted six times on the day. However, the 24-year-old had another underwhelming performance for fantasy managers. Unfortunately, McBride took a hit in the contest and is being evaluated for a concussion. Of course, this type of injury is a concern for fantasy managers, especially since it could keep him off the field for the Week 4 meeting with the Commanders. If McBride isn't available, Elijah Higgins and Tip Reiman will do their best to fill the void in the lineup.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tim Boyle completed 7-of-13 passes for 79 yards in Sunday's 24-3 road loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Skylar Thompson (chest) got the start but took a hit early in the third quarter after a short completion to De'Von Achane that sent him to the sideline -- effectively ending his day. Miami couldn't get anything going with Thompson manning the helm, and that didn't change when Boyle entered the contest. The Fins were stifled by Seattle on Sunday, coming away with just three points on 12 drives. Miami had an opportunity for one more score when they were deep in Seahawks territory early in the fourth quarter, but Boyle could not convert on 4th-and-goal. There has been no update on the severity of Thompson's injury, but the team may look to sign veteran QB help if it is deemed serious. We'll know more over the coming days as Miami gears up for a Monday night home matchup against the Tennessee Titans.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Aidan O'Connell took over for Gardner Minshew II in Sunday's matchup with the Panthers. Minshew didn't play the worst, throwing for 214 yards, one touchdown, and one pick off 18-for-28 passing. However, with the Panthers up big, the change was made. With that in mind, the situation is worth monitoring ahead of the Week 4 game with the Browns. But at this point, Minshew or O'Connell wouldn't draw much fantasy interest for the meeting with Cleveland.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix completed 25-of-36 passes for 217 yards, adding 47 rushing yards and a touchdown in Denver's blowout win against Tampa Bay. Dynasty Analysis: Nix took a big step forward today, making smart throws and essentially taking what the Bucs gave him. This was his best game so far this season and he certainly looked very comfortable all day today. Nix still needs to string together a few solid games, but this was a major step forward. He remains a solid QB2 hold in dynasty leagues.
Dynasty | Broncos running back Javonte Williams had 12 rushing yards, four catches and 29 receiving yards in a win against Tampa Bay. Dynasty Analysis: Williams now has just 52 rushing yards through three games. While his receiving prowess is keeping some fantasy appeal alive for him, it seems the resurgence some had expected simply may not happen. Williams remains a hold (and the starter), but he belongs on fantasy benches until we see something positive from him.
Dynasty | Bucs running back Bucky Irving had 70 rushing yards, three catches, and 14 receiving yards in a loss against Denver. Dynasty Analysis: Simply put, Irving has looked better than Rachaad White through three weeks. He also out-carried him 9-6 and had 12 total touches compared to 11 for White today. Neither back is seeing the volume to be a recommended play at the moment, but Irving is starting to look like a rookie bargain at the moment.
Dynasty | Steelers quarterback Justin Fields completed 25-of-32 passes for 245 yards, with one touchdown and one interception in Pittsburgh's win against the Chargers. Dynasty Analysis: He added six rushing yards and a touchdown. Fields is now 3-0 on the season and it seems like a near certainty he remains the Steelers starter moving forward. Russell Wilson is reportedly close to a return but Pittsburgh has created some masterful game plans with Fields at the helm and that seems highly unlikely to change. Fields has some low-end QB1 appeal with his rushing ability and should be held on to tightly at the moment. As for Wilson, Fields' success is bad news.
Dynasty | Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston had two catches for 44 yards and a touchdown in a loss against the Steelers. Dynasty Analysis: Johnston now has three touchdowns in two games after having just two in his rookie season last year. While much of the off-season talk revolved around Ladd McConkey, it's been Johnston who has established himself as the better fantasy scoring threat through two weeks. He remains a bit of a dangerous start at the moment, but his start is a huge step forward for a player who many felt was already a bust.
Dynasty | Chargers running back JK Dobbins had 44 rushing yards, three catches and ten receiving yards in a loss against the Steelers. Dynasty Analysis: While the scoring total for Dobbins today is disappointing, there is a big development hidden in the box score as Dobbins handled 18 touches while Gus Edwards had just three. At this point, it seems this is no longer a committee with the Chargers as Dobbins has simply taken over the backfield. This is a big development as Dobbins continues to be one of the biggest risers in terms of dynasty rankings over the first month of the season. In short, he finally looks healthy.
Dynasty | Eagles running back Saquon Barkley had 147 rushing yards, four catches, nine receiving yards, two touchdowns and a two-point conversion in a road win against the Saints. Dynasty Analysis: Barkley had been bottled up for most of the day until he ripped through the Saints defense for a Philadelphia wisely rode Barkley the rest of way and were able to pull out the win. Despite the dropped pass last week, Saquon has played at a RB1 level so far this season and remains a solid hold in dynasty leagues.
Dynasty | Dallas Goedert had ten catches for 170 yards in the Eagles win against the Saints. Dynasty Analysis: The only thing Goedert from a truly historic day was the lack of a touchdown, one he almost had a long gain in the second half before being knocked out of bounds. This will likely go down as Goedert's best fantasy day of the year, but also showed he still has TE1/2 appeal in dynasty leagues. He'll attempt to keep it going next week against Tampa Bay.
Dynasty | Saints wide receiver Rashid Shaheed was held without a catch in the Saints loss against the Eagles. Dynasty Analysis: It was a brutal day for Shaheed, who could have come down with two different touchdowns but failed to corral either of them. His five targets were consistent with previous weeks but today showed he still has major boom or bust potential on a week-to-week basis despite his solid start. Shaheed likely should stay on benches until we see more consistency but he's a solid player to have on rosters at the moment.
Dynasty | Texans running back Cam Akers had 21 rushing yards, adding one catch for eight yards and a touchdown in the Texans blowout loss to Minnesota. Dynasty Analysis: Akers saved his day with a score but was relatively ineffective in this one. The game script changed for Houston early as they fell behind, but this is what we've seen from Akers over the past couple of years - mediocre numbers. If Joe Mixon misses another week, he's going to be a tough player to suggest playing until we see something of substance.
