Lineup Prep: Championship Games
Wed Jan 24 8:44am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Gibbs can produce big this week
Last week was sure entertaining. Let’s hope the games this week are just as good. I sure think it is possible. The matchups seems pretty even to me. I know the 49ers are pretty good favorites against the Lions at home, but I think Detroit can keep it close. And the Chiefs/Ravens game is setup to be fantastic. These teams are both rolling right now. We get to see two of the greatest quarterbacks in football battle it out to make the Super Bowl. This should be fun.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
Those were some games last week. It was fun to watch, especially that Chiefs/Bills game. You have to feel for Josh Allen. He had a great run in the playoffs, but just can’t get over that Kansas City hump. It was there for the taking last week for Allen, but his field goal kicker let him down. I still think Allen is an elite level quarterback than can win the big game. It will come for him sooner than later. He is just running into a buzz saw with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs right now.
I don’t think Brock Purdy silenced the doubters after last week’s game. He was not great until that last game-winning drive. He still looked a little shaky to me most of that game. And the loss of Deebo Samuel could be huge for him and the offense. Samuel seems to be a calming influence for Purdy. I am interested to see him play this week. This could be make or break for him.
Aaron Jones sure is a difference maker when healthy. He was unbelievable for the Packers down the stretch, having five straight 100-yard rushing games. The issue is Jones is hard to trust because of his injury history and age. He is 29 years old and missed five games each of the last two seasons and played a full season just once the last five years. I love his talent, but have a hard time taking him on draft day - even after his huge finish to this season.
I’m happy for Baker Mayfield. He seems to have found a home after a rocky start to his career. He was terrific for the Bucs with that great group of receivers. And he almost played that team into the NFC Championship game last week, throwing three more touchdown passes. I don’t see the Bucs letting him loose and I think he could be a top-10 fantasy quarterback once again next season in Tampa. I don’t think it was a fluke this year.
I am really hoping the Texans make a run at Saquon Barkley this offseason. Could you imagine him in that offense? I think he would be a great fit and a huge spark for that running game in Houston. I think this would just be an ideal landing spot for Barkley when it comes to his fantasy value. Let’s make this happen!
The Ravens have a great team and are the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but can you imagine that offense with a healthy JK Dobbins or Keaton Mitchell all season. Both these backs are difference makers in my eyes and big upgrades over what they are using right now. I still think Dobbins can be a star in this league. Just something to keep in mind next season when these guys are back playing.
I like the Titans hire of Brian Callahan as their next head coach. He should be a positive for that offense, especially quarterback Will Levis. Hopefully, he can take this offense to a new level and give us a bunch of fantasy relevant players. Callahan is a bright, young offensive mind that has been integral in the development of Joe Burrow. Let’s hope he can do the same for Levis.
News and Notes: The Lions signed tight end Zach Ertz to their practice squad on Monday. Ertz gives the Lions depth at the position after an injury to Brock Wright.
HOT PLAYS
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. With Deebo Samuel very iffy to play, Aiyuk should be the top target at receiver for the 49ers this week. He didn’t do much last week, but was targeted six times in the game, which was encouraging. He gets a much better matchup this week against the Lions, a team that has allowed five straight 300-yard passing games. Aiyuk can have a big showing in this matchup.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions. Gibbs had a big game last week, topping 100 total yards while scoring a touchdown. He has touchdowns each of the first two playoff games for the Lions. He has 16-plus fantasy points each of those games. Gibbs is playing well and should be heavily involved in the offense again this week. The 49ers have been great against the run much of the year, but shown some issues stopping the run lately. San Francisco allowed 136-rushing yards last week and given up 100-plus rushing yards four of five games.
COLD PLAYS
Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff had a great overall season, but his fantasy numbers haven’t been too off the charts. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points three of five games. He is getting his yards, but the Lions tend to run the ball in more for scores than pass. He might be an iffy fantasy play this week against the 49ers. San Francisco allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season.
Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens. Edwards has failed to score each of his last two games, giving him really poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than six fantasy points each of his last two games, failing to hit 50-rushing yards each of those games. Edwards could have a similar showing this week against the Chiefs, a team that allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs. Kansas City allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season.
SLEEPERS
Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens. Bateman had three receptions for 39 yards on three targets last week. He had a solid game but failed to hit double-digit fantasy points once again. The good news is he got his looks once again. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense, but Bateman could have more favorable coverages than Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. Those guys should draw the tougher assignments, leaving Bateman a chance to make some big plays in the passing game. He could surprise this week.
Justice Hill, RB, Ravens. Hill led the Ravens in rushing last week, including rushing attempts. He got more work than starter Gus Edwards. Hill had 15 touches for 77 total yards. He could be setup for a similar workload in what could be a high-scoring fantasy teams. This means Hill could have a big fantasy showing. At this point, we might trust Hill more than Edwards, who is a more touchdown dependent player.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Chiefs/Ravens, Lions/49ers.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Hot Plays, Fades and Sleepers: Week 3
The Dallas Cowboys defense/special teams unit has been one of the most boom-bust units in fantasy over the past few seasons, and that is no different heading into Week 3 against the Baltimore Ravens. One week removed from getting shredded for 44 points against New Orleans, Dallas will look to rebound against Lamar Jackson's 0-2 Ravens team. Despite the winless start, Baltimore leads the league in total offensive yards through the first two games. In this potential shootout, avoid the Cowboys' defense in fantasy lineups.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan has been quiet through the first two weeks of the season. The rookie wideout won the No. 3 role in camp, but that doesn't come along with much attention. Through two games, McMillan has hauled in two of his five targets for 53 yards and a touchdown. Often times, McMillan is the third or fourth passing option, which isn't resulting in a ton of action. The assumption is that McMillan will get more value later on once he builds more chemistry with quarterback Baker Mayfield. For now, McMillan is a dynasty stash and remains avoidable for Week 3.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton has been barely involved through the first two games of the season. The third-year tight end has seen only four targets as the Bucs head into a Week 3 matchup against the Denver Broncos. A defensive unit that has struggled to contain the tight end, which should be good news for Otton. However, it's uncertain how many targets will be available for Otton with wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both healthy. Running back Rachaad White (groin) is uncertain for Week 3, so his absence could mean more targets for Otton. Regardless, fantasy managers can't trust Otton right now as he looks like a desperation option for TE-needy fantasy managers for Week 3.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle has seen an even split in both rushing and receiving work with Ezekiel Elliott through the first two weeks of the season. The fifth-year back has seen a more consistent workload this season than he ever has, but he still is not a reliable fantasy option due to the workload split with Elliott. This week against the Baltimore Ravens, Dowdle grades as an RB4. Baltimore has allowed the least amount of rushing yards in the league through the first two games, creating a negative matchup for the Dallas running back. Look elsewhere for a running back option this week, as Dowdle will need a touchdown to pay off in fantasy.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans is coming off a dud performance against the Detroit Lions. The veteran wideout hauled in three of his six targets for 42 yards in the win. It was a quiet game for Evans as he watched fellow wideout Chris Godwin tear up the Lions defense. Now, Evans will draw a tough matchup against Denver Broncos star defensive back Patrick Surtain. Evans always has big-play explosiveness, but could be held in check once again. Throughout the years, Evans has proven to be mostly reliable, so fantasy managers should feel comfortable with him as a WR2 for Week 3.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys receiver Brandin Cooks was limited in practice on Wednesday due to rest, but fully participated in Thursday's practice ahead of the Week 3 matchup with Baltimore. Cooks is not injured and should enter the game as the healthiest pass-catcher for Dallas with CeeDee Lamb (ankle) and Jake Ferguson (knee) battling injuries. The veteran is a WR4 option this week, as both Lamb and Ferguson are trending towards playing. The Cowboys should lean on the pass against a softer Baltimore secondary, making Cooks a potential flex option in deeper leagues.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys receiver Jalen Tolbert is coming off of a career-best performance in which he secured six receptions for 82 yards in the blowout loss to New Orleans. However, Jake Ferguson (knee) is expected to return this week, which could limit Tolbert's role in the offense. Ferguson and CeeDee Lamb (ankle) are both banged up but expected to play, limiting Tolbert's short-term usage. The third-year receiver is an intriguing stash in deep leagues with the offense searching for a tertiary playmaker behind Lamb and Ferguson, but cannot be trusted in lineups with an unproven workload this week against Baltimore.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin has been impressive early on in the season. Through two games, Godwin has 15 receptions for 200 yards and two touchdowns. It looks like moving Godwin back to the slot position has worked out well for the Bucs. The veteran wideout should continue having success in Week 3. He'll draw a Denver Broncos defense that has surprisingly done well against the pass this season. However, fellow wideout Mike Evans figures to draw star defensive back Patrick Surtain, which should open up more chances for Godwin. The Bucs pass-heavy offense should give both wideouts plenty of targets, so Godwin should be considered a high-end WR2 for Week 3.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has had a slow start to the 2024 fantasy season. He didn't have to do much in a dominant Week 1 win, and struggled in last week's blowout loss. Week 3 presents an opportunity for the 31-year-old to put it all together as the 0-2 Baltimore Ravens come to town. Baltimore has allowed the most passing yards in the league through two weeks while being stronger against the run, matching up well with what Dallas likes to do offensively. Despite Prescott's slow start, he grades as a low-end QB1 this week and should be inserted into lineups in most formats.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott has seen an even split in workload with Rico Dowdle thus far in 2024. The veteran has carried the ball 16 times for 56 yards and a touchdown while reaching up four catches for 25 yards through two games. This week's matchup with Baltimore is not favorable, as the Ravens have surrendered the least rushing yards in the league through two games. Elliott will likely split work with Dowdle again, and will need a touchdown to pay off in fantasy. Look elsewhere for a running back option this week.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving hasn't seen too big of a workload early in the season, but that could change in Week 3. Starting back Rachaad White (groin) has been limited in practice and remains uncertain for this weekend's matchup against the Denver Broncos. That being said, Irving could be asked to step into a bigger role. Through two games, Irving has rushed for 84 yards on 16 attempts, which is 5.3 yards per carry. He certainly has the ability to be a playmaker in the league, but has a limited ceiling with White being the lead back. That being said, Irving could make for an intriguing fantasy option if White is held out on Sunday. Irving could make for a low-end flex option or RB3 as the lead back. The rookie back should be stashed as the primary handcuff to White.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield has picked up right where he left off last season. Mayfield has thrown for 474 yards with five touchdowns through the first two weeks of the season. The Bucs are struggling to move the ball on the ground, but this pass-heavy approach appears to be working. Mayfield should continue to have success against the Denver Broncos in Week 3. A defensive unit that has been average through the first two weeks, so Mayfield should be considered a low-end QB1 for this weekend.
From RotoBaller
The Detroit Lions defense/special teams may not be a great streaming option heading into a Week 3 matchup with the Arizona Cardinals. In their last game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, this unit did hold its own on the back of an insane performance from Aidan Hutchinson who collected 4.5 of the team's five sacks. They've given up 20 points in both of their games so far and forced one turnover in each of them as well. Now, they go up against what should be an even better offense in the Cardinals that just put up 41 points on the Rams in Week 2 and 28 points on the Bills in Week 1. Kyler Murray has a few weapons on top of a solid running game with James Conner. The Lions are still an upper-half defense in terms of rankings, but this matchup isn't the best one to use as a streaming option.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers kicker Eddy Pineiro has found himself at the bottom of fantasy kickers even though it hasn't been his fault. Pineiro has converted on every field and extra point so far, but he's only attempted one field goal in each game and one extra point overall. The Panthers' offense has been abysmal as they haven't even been able to get into field goal range let alone find the end zone at even an average rate. While their quarterback swap may alleviate some of those woes, Pineiro is better left on the bench or the waiver wire until the offense proves it can move the ball down the field. To put things into perspective, Pineiro only has four more fantasy points than Matt Gay and five more than Spencer Shrader, both of whom have only appeared in one game.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions kicker Jake Bates has hovered around the middle of the pack for kickers so far after two weeks. In the Lions' Week 2 loss, Bates converted on all three of his field goals and his lone extra point. So far, he hasn't missed a field goal or extra point through two games, but he hasn't attempted a field goal longer than 35 yards. The Lions' offense is good enough to move the ball down the field to get into Bates' range, but their aggressive play calling has seen more touchdown-or-bust type of plays rather than settling for field goals. Bates looks to be a mid-level option heading into Week 3 against the Arizona Cardinals while having one of the higher-rated matchups according to RotoBaller's matchup tool.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers wide receiver Xavier Legette expressed frustration after not receiving any targets in the 26-3 loss in Week 2. He also went on to say he's not dwelling on it, however, and he's looking forward to getting some more deep ball opportunities with Andy Dalton under center. Despite being one of the best-protected quarterbacks of the week, Bryce Young struggled to find any of his receivers and finished with a total of 84 yards. While the Panthers have more issues than just their quarterback, Dalton is more likely to get the ball out quicker and more accurately than Young. Legette will have more of a fighting chance to secure some fantasy points with Dalton, but his fantasy relevance is very limited until there's a noticeable difference in this offense.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams is finally showing the potential that everyone expected and he's started off the season as the WR6 in half-PPR formats. In two games, Williams has 10 receptions for 200 yards and a touchdown on 20 targets with two carries for 28 yards on the ground. Now, the Lions take on the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3 where Williams can break free for some big plays. The Cardinals give up the 10th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers right now, giving up an average of 28.7 fantasy points per game. Williams projects to have one of the best matchups in his favor according to RotoBaller's matchup tool while he'll likely go up against Sean Murphy-Bunting most of the time who received a 51.6 coverage grade.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets linebacker CJ Mosley (toe) had to sit out of the Week 3 win as he continues to deal with a toe injury that needed added rest. The star middle linebacker did play in their first two games and accrued a total of 12 combined tackles (10 solo) with no sacks or QB hits yet. Head coach Robert Saleh told reporters after the game that he's confident Mosley will return for their Week 4 matchup against the Denver Broncos, so it looks like this one-game absence is all the time he'll need to miss. Mosley has been the team's leading tackler with 150 or more combined tackles in each of the last three seasons to go along with 3.5 sacks and 12 tackles for loss.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets tight end Tyler Conklin caught five of his six targets for 93 yards in a 24-3 win over the New England Patriots in Week 3's Thursday night game. Conklin wound up leading the Jets in receiving yards while finishing second in targets and tying for first in receptions. It was an unexpected spike week for Conklin, who came into Week 3 with just two catches for 16 yards through the first two weeks of the season. Conklin will now be worth a look as a waiver add ahead of Week 4's home matchup against the Denver Broncos.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets kicker Greg Zuerlein made one of his two field goal attempts and added three extra points in a 24-3 win over the New England Patriots in Week 3. Zuerlein hit a 28-yard field goal in the fourth quarter but missed on a 45-yard attempt shortly before halftime. The veteran kicker has now made two of three field goals and all seven of his extra points through three games. Zuerlein will now have a few extra days to rest ahead of a Week 4 matchup against the Denver Broncos.
From RotoBaller
