Lineup Prep: Championship Games
Wed Jan 24 8:44am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Gibbs can produce big this week
Last week was sure entertaining. Let’s hope the games this week are just as good. I sure think it is possible. The matchups seems pretty even to me. I know the 49ers are pretty good favorites against the Lions at home, but I think Detroit can keep it close. And the Chiefs/Ravens game is setup to be fantastic. These teams are both rolling right now. We get to see two of the greatest quarterbacks in football battle it out to make the Super Bowl. This should be fun.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
Those were some games last week. It was fun to watch, especially that Chiefs/Bills game. You have to feel for Josh Allen. He had a great run in the playoffs, but just can’t get over that Kansas City hump. It was there for the taking last week for Allen, but his field goal kicker let him down. I still think Allen is an elite level quarterback than can win the big game. It will come for him sooner than later. He is just running into a buzz saw with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs right now.
I don’t think Brock Purdy silenced the doubters after last week’s game. He was not great until that last game-winning drive. He still looked a little shaky to me most of that game. And the loss of Deebo Samuel could be huge for him and the offense. Samuel seems to be a calming influence for Purdy. I am interested to see him play this week. This could be make or break for him.
Aaron Jones sure is a difference maker when healthy. He was unbelievable for the Packers down the stretch, having five straight 100-yard rushing games. The issue is Jones is hard to trust because of his injury history and age. He is 29 years old and missed five games each of the last two seasons and played a full season just once the last five years. I love his talent, but have a hard time taking him on draft day - even after his huge finish to this season.
I’m happy for Baker Mayfield. He seems to have found a home after a rocky start to his career. He was terrific for the Bucs with that great group of receivers. And he almost played that team into the NFC Championship game last week, throwing three more touchdown passes. I don’t see the Bucs letting him loose and I think he could be a top-10 fantasy quarterback once again next season in Tampa. I don’t think it was a fluke this year.
I am really hoping the Texans make a run at Saquon Barkley this offseason. Could you imagine him in that offense? I think he would be a great fit and a huge spark for that running game in Houston. I think this would just be an ideal landing spot for Barkley when it comes to his fantasy value. Let’s make this happen!
The Ravens have a great team and are the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but can you imagine that offense with a healthy JK Dobbins or Keaton Mitchell all season. Both these backs are difference makers in my eyes and big upgrades over what they are using right now. I still think Dobbins can be a star in this league. Just something to keep in mind next season when these guys are back playing.
I like the Titans hire of Brian Callahan as their next head coach. He should be a positive for that offense, especially quarterback Will Levis. Hopefully, he can take this offense to a new level and give us a bunch of fantasy relevant players. Callahan is a bright, young offensive mind that has been integral in the development of Joe Burrow. Let’s hope he can do the same for Levis.
News and Notes: The Lions signed tight end Zach Ertz to their practice squad on Monday. Ertz gives the Lions depth at the position after an injury to Brock Wright.
HOT PLAYS
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. With Deebo Samuel very iffy to play, Aiyuk should be the top target at receiver for the 49ers this week. He didn’t do much last week, but was targeted six times in the game, which was encouraging. He gets a much better matchup this week against the Lions, a team that has allowed five straight 300-yard passing games. Aiyuk can have a big showing in this matchup.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions. Gibbs had a big game last week, topping 100 total yards while scoring a touchdown. He has touchdowns each of the first two playoff games for the Lions. He has 16-plus fantasy points each of those games. Gibbs is playing well and should be heavily involved in the offense again this week. The 49ers have been great against the run much of the year, but shown some issues stopping the run lately. San Francisco allowed 136-rushing yards last week and given up 100-plus rushing yards four of five games.
COLD PLAYS
Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff had a great overall season, but his fantasy numbers haven’t been too off the charts. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points three of five games. He is getting his yards, but the Lions tend to run the ball in more for scores than pass. He might be an iffy fantasy play this week against the 49ers. San Francisco allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season.
Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens. Edwards has failed to score each of his last two games, giving him really poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than six fantasy points each of his last two games, failing to hit 50-rushing yards each of those games. Edwards could have a similar showing this week against the Chiefs, a team that allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs. Kansas City allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season.
SLEEPERS
Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens. Bateman had three receptions for 39 yards on three targets last week. He had a solid game but failed to hit double-digit fantasy points once again. The good news is he got his looks once again. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense, but Bateman could have more favorable coverages than Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. Those guys should draw the tougher assignments, leaving Bateman a chance to make some big plays in the passing game. He could surprise this week.
Justice Hill, RB, Ravens. Hill led the Ravens in rushing last week, including rushing attempts. He got more work than starter Gus Edwards. Hill had 15 touches for 77 total yards. He could be setup for a similar workload in what could be a high-scoring fantasy teams. This means Hill could have a big fantasy showing. At this point, we might trust Hill more than Edwards, who is a more touchdown dependent player.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Chiefs/Ravens, Lions/49ers.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
- Patriots, RB Rhamondre Stevenson agree to 4-year extension
- Browns DE Lonnie Phelps waived after crashing car into restaurant
- Broncos add ex-Stanford coach David Shaw to front office
- Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence signs $275M contract
- Saints signing free agent S Roderic Teamer
- Jaguars signing veteran WR Denzel Mims
- Pats sign former CFL, XFL and UFL G Liam Fornadel
- Cowboys sign DB Gareon Conley, LB Willie Harvey
- Steelers to release WR Denzel Mims
- Lions sign UFL K Jake Bates
- Brandon Aiyuk: 49ers 'don't want me back'
- Browns GM: Deshaun Watson ahead of schedule in rehab
- Bengals re-sign WR Tee Higgins to 1-year franchise tag
- 'Hard Knocks' to feature all AFC North teams in season
- Chiefs DL Isaiah Buggs arrested in Alabama
- Bengals WR Tee Higgins to sign $21.8M franchise tag
- Lions to sign UFL kicker Jake Bates
- Commanders sign No. 2 pick QB Jayden Daniels
- Chargers bring S Tony Jefferson out of retirement
- Chiefs' new Super Bowl rings feature factual error
- Fantasy Six Pack: Dynasty Football Trade Value Chart
- Fantasy Six Pack: ayden Daniels find immediate success? | 2024 Washington Commanders Fantasy Football Draft Guide
- Fantasy Six Pack: IDP Football AFC North Draft Guide
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The Paur Report
Carolina Panthers QB Bryce Young is getting more comfortable entering his second NFL season, according to WR Adam Thielen. ''You can tell, Bryce's demeanor in the building -- he's just more comfortable, right? And you don't realize it when you start getting to be a veteran guy, just because you forget about those times,' said Thielen.
Fantasy Spin: Young is coming off a pretty rough rookie season, but the Panthers have done a solid job adding protection and weapons around him. Even so, he's a QB2 option until he proves he has more upside.
From TheHuddle
Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Greg Dortch is expected to have an expanded role in 2024, according to Bob McManaman of the Arizona Republic. Dortch has been a steady, reliable contributor to Arizona's wide receiver corps over his two seasons with the team. Now, even though Marvin Harrison Jr. will be the focal point of the offense, Dortch is expected to get plenty of looks. He'll operate ahead of Zay Jones and Chris Moore, instead mixing in with the likes of Harrison, Michael Wilson, and Trey McBride. The now-26-year-old had 23 catches for 278 yards over his final seven games last season, and he figures to rank as a high-end WR5 heading into fantasy football drafts this year.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets wide receiver Malachi Corley is still adjusting to NFL speed and the team's offense, according to Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic. Specifically, Rosenblatt cautions against automatically viewing Corley as the Jets' No. 3 receiver over Xavier Gipson, who has made several players while taking a significant leap this offseason. As of now, it appears Gipson and Corley are the two candidates vying for the No. 3 receiver role, and it's possible that the former actually has a slight advantage. Of course, Rosenblatt also notes that Corley drew plenty of hype following the draft and "has a lot of talent and made some plays," even if his position on the depth chart is still in flux.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets wide receiver Xavier Gipson "made plays throughout OTAs and minicamp and seems to have taken a leap forward after a year of NFL experience," according to Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic. Rosenblatt even suggested that Gipson might have a leg up on the No. 3 receiver role over Malachi Corley, the fast-rising rookie who has turned some heads during camp but is still adjusting to NFL speed. If Gipson does open 2024 ahead of Corley on the depth chart, he'll still fall behind Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams in the pecking order. As a result, the second-year receiver is merely a bench option in deeper redraft leagues.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. has been impressive throughout OTAs and mandatory minicamp. As expected, Harrison has emerged as the top option in the wide receiver room. This comes as no shock given his talent and the fact the Cardinals selected him as the 4th overall pick in this year's draft. The rookie wideout has reportedly had no issues with picking up the Cardinals playbook. The expectation is that he'll be the unquestioned top target for quarterback Kyler Murray. The hype is real as Harrison has risen to the early second round in many 2024 fantasy drafts.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent CB Adoree' Jackson (Giants) could be an option for the Carolina Panthers if they are looking to sign another cornerback, in the opinion of The Charlotte Observer's Mike Kaye.
From TheHuddle
Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Tre Tucker put together a fairly quiet rookie campaign, but could see a bigger role next season. Tucker is a bit undersized but Raiders' head coach Antonio Pierce doesn't care about his size and says everyone should watch Tucker play. Tucker finished with 19 receptions for 331 receiving yards and two touchdowns during his rookie season. It seems possible that the Raiders use Tucker in a dual-threat type of role because they like his athleticism. On paper, Tucker is a distant No. 3 option behind Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers on the depth chart.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants wide receiver Jalin Hyatt has reportedly put on weight this offseason. The second-year wideout is listed as 185 pounds heading into camp. Hyatt didn't provide the exact number, but he has added some bulk this offseason. The young wideout mentioned that he needed to get bigger in order to play more on the outside as a wide receiver. It'll be interesting to see how Hyatt is worked into the gameplan after a fairly quiet rookie campaign. The wide receiver room is only getting more crowded with Malik Nabers joining the team as their first-round draft pick. Hyatt could be a late-round flier on draft boards this fall.
From RotoBaller
The Athletic's Doug Haller writes that there is a lot of optimism from the Arizona Cardinals this offseason, with the biggest reason being that quarterback Kyler Murray is on the field. Murray was off to the side working with the team's conditioning staff at this time last year while trying to recover from ACL surgery. Murray's recovery affected Arizona's entire season in 2023 after he missed the first nine games. He spent the rest of the year learning a new offense and trying to find his way back, and it showed. An offseason built around Murray should make a difference in 2024. The 26-year-old put in extra work with his receivers on weekends, trying to perfect rhythm and timing. Murray probably isn't going to be an elite passer, especially given the lack of standout options at receiver in Arizona besides rookie first-rounder Marvin Harrison Jr., but his elite rushing ability and upside should give him a solid fantasy floor as a top-10 quarterback heading into upcoming fantasy drafts.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Patriots have signed running back Rhamondre Stevenson to a contract extension. Dynasty Analysis: New England is giving Stevenson $17 million in guaranteed money, which also includes an $8 million signing bonus and $12 million more possible with incentives. In other words, he's the starter moving forward. This is a hefty sum of money to give a running back, especially one who struggled at times last year. Regardless, this contract makes him the seventh highest paid running back in football and cements him in as a RB2 for the foreseeable future.
Dynasty | Numerous reports are indicating Russell Wilson is the clear starter in Pittsburgh. Dynasty Analysis: There were some silly rumors about Justin Fields returning kicks earlier this off-season but those proved false. However, it certainly does seem Wilson is taking charge at quarterback and has a clear lead over Fields at this point in the process. After spending most of the post-Roethlisberger era spinning their wheels, it seems Pittsburgh has two capable players to lead the team and the veteran Wilson looks poised to have the first crack at it. While no longer a viable QB1 in dynasty leagues, Wilson could provide QB2 value this season.
Dynasty | The Jaguars have signed free agent wide receiver Denzel Mims. Dynasty Analysis: The former second round pick has been a bust thus far in his career but the Jags seem willing to give him one more shot. With just 42 career catches for 672 scoreless yards over four years, it's hard to get too excited about his prospects. Still, we know Mims has some talent and he's at least worthy of having on a watch list should he find his way on to the roster later this Summer.
Dynasty | Former Steelers wide receiver James Washington is attempting a comeback. Dynasty Analysis: Washington moved on from Pittsburgh and found little success in his time in Dallas. He also failed to impress in stops with the Giants, Saints, and Colts, failing to make their final rosters. It's a longshot to think he's going to emerge as a viable player in dynasty leagues but this is at least a fun story to watch during a summer of slow news.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers selected former Oregon running back Bucky Irving in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft, just months after Rachaad White finished his breakout campaign that consisted of 1,539 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns on 336 touches. White was a rare workhorse in today's NFL, so Irving is likely to get work behind him in 2024. When speaking about Irving, White said the two could be a great one-two punch. "Bucky does a great job of, first thing, competing, and two, learning," White said. "They're all brilliant and they all want to understand the game more, and things like that. We talk a lot. We've got a good relationship. It's huge. I think he brings a playmaker [ability] and in this offense, the more playmakers, the better. It'll be huge. The one-two punch would be nice." It will be interesting to see how offensive coordinator Liam Cohen distributes the backfield touches, but White should remain the clear starter in Tampa Bay. Irving is a Day 3 rookie who had a disappointing pre-draft process, so expectations should be tempered.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson agreed to a four-year, $36 million contract extension on Thursday, according to NFL insider Ian Rapoport. The deal includes $17 million guaranteed. While the team can get out of the deal early and less than half of it is guaranteed, this is still a sign that the organization views him as the clear leadback. The 26-year-old enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2022, racking up over 1,400 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns in 17 games. He was limited to just 12 games and 857 yards in 2023, but he should be healthy heading into his fourth pro season. While Antonio Gibson might get work behind him in the receiving game, both running backs could see plenty of targets given the weak group of pass-catchers Drake Maye and Jacoby Brissett have to work with. Stevenson is likely an underpriced RB2 for 2024.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan was selected in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft, and according to Bailey Adams of PewterReport, he's on track to be a Day 1 contributor. "McMillan may even have a chance to overtake [Trey] Palmer for the WR3 role, though Palmer is having a good offseason himself," Adams wrote. "In either case, the rookie looks like he'll help the Bucs from day one, whether he's WR3 or WR4." Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have the WR1 and WR2 roles locked down, so it will be interesting to see whether Palmer or McMillan sees more snaps early in the 2024 campaign. While sharing a field with Rome Odunze and Ja'Lynn Polk in 2022, McMillan posted 79 receptions for 1,098 yards and nine touchdowns. He regressed in his final season at Washington, but he was still productive considering the immense target competition. The 22-year-old likely has limited fantasy upside as a rookie if Evans and Godwin stay healthy, but if he flashes with limited targets, his fantasy stock could spike in dynasty and for the following season.
From RotoBaller
The New Orleans Saints signed free-agent safety Roderic Teamer to an undisclosed one-year deal on Thursday, according to a source with knowledge of the situation. The 27-year-old Tulane product previously tried out with the Saints at rookie minicamp and again at mandatory minicamp and will join his hometown team. Teamer began his NFL career in 2019 with the Los Angeles Chargers after going undrafted. He then spent the next three years playing for the Las Vegas Raiders. In his 40 NFL games (11 starts) over four years, Teamer has 103 tackles (72 solo), an interception, one sack and three pass breakups. He will now look to impress the coaching staff enough in training camp and the preseason to earn a 53-man roster spot as secondary depth going into Week 1 this fall.
From RotoBaller
The Athletic's Zac Jackson believes that the Cleveland Browns plan to open the year with new wide receiver Jerry Jeudy in the slot and Amari Cooper and Cedric Tillman out wide. Jeudy also has the ability to play outside, and Elijah Moore will also see snaps both inside and outside. David Bell is likely the No. 5 receiver, and any other player wanting to get into the immediate mix at the position would need a big summer performance and come with special teams ability. Jeudy was held out of spring practices with a minor injury, so he should be ready to go for training camp this summer. The former first-rounder from Alabama has lined up slightly more than half the time so far in his NFL career, but he's been a disappointment to this point and won't have a ton of fantasy upside as long as Cooper stays healthy in 2024. Jeudy should be considered more of a WR4/5 heading into his first year in Cleveland.
From RotoBaller
Former New York Jets wide receiver Denzel Mims, who was released by the Pittsburgh Steelers this week, quickly found a home and signed an undisclosed deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday, according to sources. Mims spent time on the Steelers' practice squad last year but never played in a regular-season game. The 26-year-old former second-round selection (59th overall) by the Jets in 2020 out of Baylor was a bust in his three years in New York, catching 42 of 92 targets for 676 yards and no touchdowns in 30 games (15 starts). He was traded to the Detroit Lions at the start of the 2023 campaign but also didn't get into any regular-season games with the team. Even with Calvin Ridley gone in Jacksonville, Mims is going to be fighting an uphill battle to make the Jags' 53-man roster out of training camp this summer.
From RotoBaller
The Athletic's Zac Jackson projects Cleveland Browns running back Pierre Strong Jr. to make the team with both Nick Chubb and Nyheim Hines coming off knee injuries. Strong might be the fifth running back on the team, though, and he might not play RB at all. He showcased his impressive straight-line speed in May and June during offseason workouts and most of his work will likely come on special teams as a punt gunner and kickoff returner. For that, he'll likely be on the game-day roster, despite a RB room that includes Chubb, Hines, Jerome Ford and D'Onta Foreman. Strong and backup cornerback Justin Hardee Sr. are near the top of the list of players in line to make the roster for special teams purposes. Just don't count on Strong being anywhere near the fantasy radar in 2024.
From RotoBaller
