Lineup Prep: Super Bowl
Wed Feb 7 8:43am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Pacheco is playing at high level
Not sure about you, but there is not a better weekend in sports than Super Bowl weekend. It is as good as it gets. Just everything involved with it is so much fun. I am so looking forward to it all this weekend. Let’s hope it is a good game and lives up to the hype. Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
I will give you my pick for the game right off the bat. I think it will be a close game, but look for the Chiefs to squeak it out. I think the experience factor plays a difference here in the end, especially when it comes to the quarterback position. Patrick Mahomes has been outstanding during the playoffs and think he has a huge advantage over Brock Purdy. Plus, the Chiefs defense has been outstanding lately, completely shutting down the opponent. I don’t see them shutting down the 49ers high-powered offense, but think they will cause Purdy problems. I’m going with a Chiefs 31-27 victory.
If you still don’t have any fantasy teams alive in the playoffs, consider playing our fun pickem contests. We have tons of options available to play with for the Super Bowl. I wanted to give you a few of my favorite pickem plays for the big game. Give me Travis Kelce more than 70.5-receiving yards. Kelce has 71-plus yards all three of his playoff games and is coming off arguably his best game of the season. And the 49ers struggled to stop the tight end last week, seeing Sam LaPorta rack up the receptions and yards. I also like Brandon Aiyuk less than 61.5-receiving yards. Aiyuk has failed to hit that mark two of three games and has just three catches each of his last three games. Lastly, I like Deebo Samuel more than 79.5-rushing and receiving yards. Samuel had 11 touches his last game and was a huge part of the offense. I look for the 49ers to get him involved early and often, giving him good potential to rack up some total yards.
I’m not sure how I feel about the Commanders hiring of Kliff Kingsbury. His offenses were fine in Arizona, but not as explosive as many thought and he struggled some using Caleb Williams last year at USC. I think the Commanders would have been better served keeping Eric Bieniemy as their offensive coordinator. I thought he did a great job with the offense last year in Washington all things considered. I’m not convinced Kingsbury is going to be an upgrade.
On a different subject, can we stop teasing and showing parts of the Super Bowl commercials before the game? I mean part of the fun of the game is the commercials. They are always entertaining and a part of the event. But now, you see parts of the commercials before the game, ruining the surprise. C’mon people. Let’s stop this tradition right now.
We had our first TFC draft of the 2024 season last night. And in a surprise move, the first pick of the draft was Breece Hall. And we also saw Sam LaPorta get picked before Travis Kelce. It is always interesting to see how these early drafts shake out. A lot is going to change between now and the start of next season, but trends are starting now. In this draft, four running backs were picked in the first round compared to eight receivers. And the quarterback position looks as deep as ever with guys like Jordan Love getting picked in Round 11. Brock Purdy and Kirk Cousins also went very late.
News and Notes: The Chargers hired Greg Roman as their new offensive coordinator. Roman tends to be more run heavy when it comes to play calling. . . . .Former Texans and Patriots running back Rex Burkhead announced his retirement from the NFL on Tuesday.
HOT PLAYS
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs. Pacheco has taken his game to new heights during the Chiefs playoff run. He has at least 15 fantasy points four straight games and found the end zone seven consecutive games. He even has 20-plus carries two of three games, getting a big workload in the Chiefs offense. Expect more of the same this week from Pacheco. The 49ers allowed 182-rushing yards to the Lions their last game and allowed 135-plus rushing yards each of their two playoff games.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce has looked like a different player during these playoffs than the regular season. He had 11 receptions his last game and at least five catches all three playoff games. He has 14-plus fantasy points all three games. He has really elevated his game after a ho-hum second half of the season. Look for him to be the focal point of the Chiefs passing game once again this week. And San Francisco couldn’t contain Sam LaPorta in the Championship game, allowing him to get nine receptions for 97 yards. The Packers tight ends had six receptions and a touchdown in the 49ers other playoff game.
COLD PLAYS
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. Aiyuk did score a touchdown his last game, which was a big positive, but he had just three receptions. He has just three cathodes three straight games. He has were than 40 yards two of three. And with the Chiefs secondary clamping down on receivers right not, it could be more of the same for Aiyuk this week. He could be held in check once again.
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Chiefs. McKinnon is expected to make his long-awaited return this week, returning from a groin injury. He has not played since Week 15. Just remember he has not reached double-digit touches in a single game this year. Pacheco is the lead back in this offense and will get most of the work at running back. McKinnon played great during the Chiefs playoff run last season, but this is a new year. Plus, McKinnon has not played in several weeks, so you have to wonder how much he is even on the field. He will be a big risk to use for fantasy owners.
SLEEPERS
Jauan Jennings, WR, 49ers. There are always surprise players in the Super Bowl, so why not Jennings. He could draw the most favorable matchups in coverage for the 49ers receiver options. And he has looked good in the playoffs, having six receptions for 69 yards in two games. He played 42 percent of the snaps last week - even with Deebo Samuel back in the lineup. Jennings might get a big play or two in this one, making him an intriguing fantasy play.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Chiefs. Valdes-Scantling had the game-clinching reception in the Championship game, making a sliding catch on third down to clinch the game. He finished with two receptions for 38 yards. But he played a season-high 83 percent of the snaps in that game, which is encouraging. If he is on the field that much again this week, his reception and yardage totals could rise in what might be a high-scoring game.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Chiefs/49ers.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
- FANTASY EXCLUSIVE: TE Strength of Schedule
- Commanders sign No. 2 pick QB Jayden Daniels
- Chargers bring S Tony Jefferson out of retirement
- Chiefs' new Super Bowl rings feature factual error
- Dolphins, DE Calais Campbell agree to deal
- Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence signs 5-year, $275M extension
- Saints RB Alvin Kamara seeks new contract, exits minicamp
- Bucs' first-round C Graham Barton signs contract
- Jets sign edge rusher Takkarist McKinley after tryout
- Bengals C Ted Karras signs extension through 2025
- NFL punishes Falcons for tampering; Eagles cleared
- Saints TE Juwan Johnson to have foot surgery
- Pats retire Tom Brady's number, announce statue plans
- Broncos' Sean Payton, pleased with QBs, ends minicamp early
- Vikings coach: Sam Darnold favorite to enter camp as QB1
- Jets coach, Aaron Rodgers 'on the exact same page'
- Giants signing former Jaguars CB Tre Herndon
- Broncos' coach Sean Payton in no hurry to name a starting QB
- QB Russell Wilson feeling 'revived' with Steelers
- Panthers WR Xavier Legette (hamstring) missing minicamp
- Packers QB Jordan Love at camp, expects contract resolution soon
- Fantasy Six Pack: Dynasty Football QB Draft Strategies
- Fantasy Six Pack: nthony Richardson Live Up To His Enormous Potential? | 2024 Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Football Draft Guide
- Fantasy Six Pack: Best Ball Overrated Wide Receivers
- Fantasy Six Pack: ekiel Elliott’s Return to RB1 Status a Possibility? | 2024 Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Football Draft Guide
The Paur Report
The Atlanta Falcons will have their 2025 fifth-round pick revoked following the NFL's investigation into potential tampering. The Falcons violated the anti-tampering policy with quarterback Kirk Cousins, wide receiver Darnell Mooney, and tight end Charlie Woerner. In addition to the pick loss, the team was fined $250,000, and general manager Terry Fontenot was fined $500,000, according to NFL insider Ian Rapoport. All things considered, this is a mild punishment. The Falcons have Super Bowl aspirations after signing Cousins to a $180 million contract this offseason, and the punishments will not affect their 2024 campaign.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent edge-rusher Takkarist McKinley is signing with the New York Jets, according to NFL.com. The 2017 first-round pick by the Atlanta Falcons out of UCLA is set to join his seventh organization in his seventh year in the NFL. He has appeared in games for the Falcons, Cleveland Browns, and Los Angeles Rams and has racked up 98 tackles, 20 sacks, three forced fumbles, and two pass deflections in 64 career games. Although he's unlikely to ever live up to his draft status, he could contribute to a dominant defense as a rotational edge rusher. He'll look to compete with Micheal Clemons and Will McDonald IV to play behind Haason Reddick and Jermaine Johnson in 2024.
From RotoBaller
The Chicago Bears are signing wide receiver DeAndre Carter, according to Jordan Schultz of Bleacher Report. The 2015 undrafted free agent has spent time with nine NFL organizations, including the Bears in 2020. Overall, the 31-year-old has tallied 108 receptions for 1,259 yards and six touchdowns. However, he has returned 132 punts and 118 kickoffs in 94 career games, so that's likely why Chicago was interested in bringing him in. Carter is likely to compete with third-year wideout Velus Jones Jr. for return-man duties, a role that could be more important following the updated kickoff rules in 2024. With DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze on the roster, it'd be a surprise if Carter makes an impact as a receiver.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson (foot) is scheduled to undergo foot surgery next week, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. Johnson suffered the injury during Wednesday's minicamp practice and is expected to miss a significant chunk of time. However, the team is hopeful he'll be ready for the start of the regular season. In Johnson's first year with Derek Carr, he caught 37 passes for 368 yards and four touchdowns in 13 games. He's been a fantasy football sleeper for the last few years and will remain one in 2024, so long as he can recover and get back to action. In his absence, Foster Moreau will likely handle TE1 duties, though Taysom Hill could see more work at that spot for the remainder of the offseason.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Rashod Bateman has struggled to begin his NFL career, racking up just 93 receptions, 1,167 yards, and four touchdowns in his first 35 games. According to Ravens reporter Jonas Shaffer, the former first-round pick has remained underwhelming this offseason. "Bateman has had a quiet start to minicamp. He had a short catch early in Tuesday's practice, but his snaps seemed to dwindle later in the session," Shaffer wrote. "On Wednesday, Jackson targeted him just once, when Bateman was well covered by Mullen on a shot play and his deep pass fell incomplete." Offensive coordinator Todd Monken said he expects a great year from Bateman, but the early reports from minicamp are less than ideal. Unfortunately, Bateman is likely capped as the No. 3 option in a low-volume passing attack, which limits his upside. The 24-year-old is a fine best-ball flier, but it would be a surprise if he's a weekly contributor in traditional fantasy football leagues.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders running back Dylan Laube has been impressing the organization this offseason, meaning the sixth-round pick has a realistic shot to make the 53-man roster for the 2024 campaign. "He's wise beyond his years. He shows up like a vet. He can take what he learns from the classroom and apply it on the field," running backs coach Cadillac Williams said. "He's always going to be in the right spots. Got really good hands, quick, explosive. Just a very cerebral player that can do a lot of things." The New Hampshire product has been flashing his receiving skills at minicamp, and he's taken reps on the kick return team. Laube caught 117 passes for 1,163 yards and nine touchdowns in his final two college seasons, and he registered over 2,000 all-purpose yards and 17 touchdowns in 2023. The 24-year-old is likely behind Zamir White and Alexander Mattison on the depth chart, but he could beat out Ameer Abdullah to earn at least a small pass-catching role in his rookie season. He's an interesting late-round flier in deep PPR fantasy football leagues.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders quarterback Marcus Mariota has been splitting first-team reps with first-round rookie Jayden Daniels this offseason, according to head coach Dan Quinn. The former No. 2 overall pick in 2015 by the Tennessee Titans signed a one-year deal with Washington at the start of free agency, and he could be the short-term starter if the team wants Daniels to sit for the first few weeks of the 2024 campaign. Although Mariota has struggled to keep a starting job, he has underrated fantasy football upside thanks to his rushing skill set. In 13 games for the Atlanta Falcons in 2022, Mariota averaged a respectable 15.8 fantasy points per game behind 2,219 passing yards, 15 passing touchdowns, nine interceptions, 438 rushing yards, and four rushing touchdowns. He's a must-stash option in Superflex leagues, and fantasy managers might get one or two QB1 weeks out of him if he's the starter to begin the Dan Quinn era in Washington.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken and quarterbacks coach Tee Martin have made it clear this offseason that they plan to give quarterback Lamar Jackson more responsibility in the team's pre-snap operation this year. During practice on Wednesday, Jackson was challenged by an aggressive defense to change routes, run schemes and protections at the line of scrimmage, and Martin liked what he saw as the offense had one of its sharper practices of the offseason. Last year's NFL MVP will be given more freedom before the snap in 2024 to get the offense into ideal looks. The 27-year-old also showed up this year a little bit lighter as he looks for an encore performance. As long as Jackson is able to stay healthy again, the dual-threat signal-caller should be a top-five fantasy quarterback.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris, who had his fifth-year option declined by the team last month, attended mandatory minicamp this week but didn't participate at all. Harris also declined every interview request and hasn't done interviews since January. He said he'd talk to the media next month at training camp. Harris isn't believed to be dealing with an injury this offseason, and head coach Mike Tomlin downplayed the fact that the RB didn't take part in minicamp workouts this week. In a contract year now, the 26-year-old has slimmed down as he looks to show out before hitting the free-agent market next March. The former first-rounder will probably never be as productive as he was in his rookie campaign in 2021, but he's been durable and reliable in Pittsburgh's backfield. Jaylen Warren's emergence has capped Harris' fantasy upside, although the Steelers should remain heavily committed to the run in 2024 under new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh said that running back Gus Edwards (undisclosed) "has been on a really good track" and is "likely" to be back for training camp at the end of July. Edwards worked off to the side with trainers during mandatory minicamp with an undisclosed injury. The 29-year-old should be ready for the start of the 2024 regular season, but it's worth monitoring his health this summer as he enters his first season in LA. With Austin Ekeler gone, Edwards should be the primary RB in the Bolts' backfield in what will be a run-first offense under new coordinator Greg Roman. Behind him will be J.K. Dobbins, rookie Kimani Vidal and Isaiah Spiller. Edwards isn't much of a pass-catcher and has durability issues, but he managed a career-high 13 touchdowns in 17 regular-season games in Baltimore in 2023. Don't expect double-digit TDs in his first year in LA, though.
From RotoBaller
Even though Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton showed up for mandatory minicamp this week after being absent at voluntary organized team activities, he hinted that he could hold out of training camp next month as he seeks a long-term contract extension. He's entering the third year of a four-year, $60.8 million extension that he signed back in 2021. Sutton has a $13 million salary in 2024 with only $2 million guaranteed. The 28-year-old wants a bigger contract after scoring a career-high 10 touchdowns in 2023. "You know we'll see, we'll see what happens," Sutton said when asked if he'll show up for training camp if his contract negotiations remain at a stalemate. Sutton will be the unquestioned WR1 in Denver now that Jerry Jeudy is gone, but the QB situation isn't ideal, and he will be facing major regression in the TD department in 2024.
From RotoBaller
After a thorough review of the Philadelphia Eagles' signing of running back Saquon Barkley, the NFL informed the team on Thursday that the investigation did not discover sufficient evidence to support a finding that the anti-tampering policy was violated. The league reviewed phone logs, text messages and other documents related to Philadelphia's free-agency strategy and decision to sign Barkley. The NFL also interviewed several members of the organization, including Howie Roseman and Nick Sirianni, as well as Barkley and Penn State head coach James Franklin. Unlike the Atlanta Falcons and their pursuit of quarterback Kirk Cousins this offseason, the Eagles will not face any fines or loss of future draft picks for their signing of Barkley.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara skipped the team's final mandatory minicamp practice this week due to contract-related reasons, according to his agent, Brad Cicala. Kamara was in attendance for minicamp but didn't take part in on-field workouts as he seeks a new contract. The 28-year-old veteran has two years left on his current deal, and not much progress has been made on a new contract. The former third-round selection in 2017 was a Pro Bowler in each of his first five seasons in the league and has surpassed 1,000 scrimmage yards in all seven of his campaigns for the Saints. However, Kamara has never been a 1,000-yard rusher and had a career-low 694 rushing yards and five touchdowns in 13 games in 2023. Kamara is more attractive in PPR leagues for his pass-catching prowess. Keep in mind that he's averaged 4.0 yards per carry or less in the last three seasons.
From RotoBaller
The New Orleans Saints restructured tight end Taysom Hill's contract on Thursday, converting his base salary for 2024 to free up some salary cap room. Hill's cap number went from $15.7 million to $6.8 million with the move. The 33-year-old continues to be listed as a tight end for fantasy purposes, but he's apparently being involved more as a running back/fullback in new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak's scheme during offseason workouts. Juwan Johnson's foot injury will also open up more pass-catching opportunities for Hill in training camp this summer as a traditional tight end. Most of Hill's production in 2023 came as a quarterback in wild-cat formations for the Saints. His versatile skill set makes him intriguing as a TE2 in fantasy, but it has been nearly impossible to predict how the Saints will use him on a weekly basis.
From RotoBaller
The New England Patriots signed second-round wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk to a $9.694 million rookie deal on Thursday that includes a $3.87 million signing bonus. Polk had been relatively quiet in organized team activities open to the media before Monday of this week, when he caught a touchdown pass from quarterback Jacoby Brissett. He has come as advertised to the team's decision-makers and has embraced the steady installation of offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt's playbook, showing a good understanding of a larger menu of plays. Coaches in the building have been impressed with his high-end physical skills that have them believing he'll be more than just a role player in the receivers room in his first NFL campaign. The 22-year-old will have the opportunity to earn playing time on a team without a clear leader at the position, making him worth a late-round flier in deep redraft leagues.
From RotoBaller
The Jacksonville Jaguars and quarterback Trevor Lawrence agreed on a five-year, $275 million contract extension on Thursday, which includes $200 million guaranteed ($142 million at signing), according to a source. The $55 million average salary in Lawrence's deal ties him with Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow for the top mark in that category in the NFL. The 24-year-old former first overall pick in 2021 out of Clemson made his first Pro Bowl in his second season in 2022 and has had back-to-back 4,000-yard seasons, although Lawrence and the Jaguars offense struggled down the stretch last year as he battled through injuries. Overall, his 2023 campaign was a step back after he finished as the QB7 in fantasy the year prior. Lawrence lost Calvin Ridley but gained rookie Brian Thomas and Gabe Davis and has plenty of targets, but he's best drafted as a QB2 with upside in fantasy.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns wide receiver Amari Cooper continued his holdout on Thursday for the final day of the team's mandatory minicamp while he seeks a long-term contract extension. Cooper is heading into the final year of his current deal in 2024 and is looking for more security on an extension after posting career-highs in receiving yards (1,250) and yards per catch (17.4) despite playing with four different quarterbacks in 2023. The 29-year-old former fourth overall pick in 2015 by the Raiders out of Alabama added 72 receptions and five touchdowns in 15 regular-season games. It's unknown if this holdout will extend into training camp next month, but if it does, Cooper's fantasy stock as a WR2 will dip further after the Browns added Jerry Jeudy in a trade with the Broncos this offseason.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski said that All-Pro pass-rusher Myles Garrett (hamstring) tweaked his hamstring early in minicamp drills this week, but that "he'll be fine." The Browns and Garrett aren't going to take any chances in June, and the 28-year-old defensive end should be ready to go for the start of training camp at the end of July. Garrett should be one of the first five defensive ends off the board in IDP fantasy drafts this fall after winning Defensive Player of the Year honors in his seventh year in the NFL. In 16 regular-season starts, he accumulated 42 tackles (33 solo), 14 sacks, 17 tackles for loss, 30 QB hits, four forced fumbles and a fumble recovery. Garrett is a pass-rushing beast and has had double-digit sacks in all but his rookie campaign for Cleveland back in 2017. He's hat at least 14 sacks in each of the last three years.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants wide receiver Darius Slayton (undisclosed) left Tuesday's practice due to an undisclosed injury after appearing to slip while running a route. He got up and walked off the field gingerly. The nature of Slayton's injury still isn't known, but head coach Brian Daboll said he expects Slayton to be ready for training camp next month. Even though the 27-year-old's injury doesn't appear to be serious, it will be worth watching closely in training camp. Despite the addition of rookie Malik Nabers in the first round this year, Slayton projects to be a starter for the G-Men in 2024. However, he'll probably be hard-pressed to top his career-high of 770 receiving yards a season ago. Additionally, both Wan'Dale Robinson and Jalin Hyatt could have increased roles in an offense led by quarterback Daniel Jones, who is returning from an ACL tear. Slayton will go undrafted in standard 12-team leagues.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury appears to be using some two-running back sets during mandatory minicamp this week involving Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler. In what will be a vastly different offense under Kingsbury in 2024 with rookie first-round quarterback Jayden Daniels at the helm, Washington figures to use Robinson as more of the between-the-tackles, early-down back, with Ekeler serving as the primary pass-catcher out of the backfield. The 25-year-old Robinson had 43 targets in 2023, but he stands to lose a hefty amount of targets to Ekeler this year. With more competition from Ekeler, B-Rob is going to need to remain productive and hold onto the football to be a viable RB3/flex for fantasy managers in standard-scoring leagues. Ekeler should be more valuable as an RB3/flex in point-per-reception formats.
