Draft Day Winners and Losers
Mon Apr 29 11:53am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
White should be lead back
The draft is always so exciting, seeing where all the players get picked. But after the draft, the big issue is figuring out what it all means for their fantasy value. We thought it would be a good idea to look at some of the biggest fantasy winners and losers from draft day. These are some of the players that were picked but also some of the guys that were already on rosters, seeing their fantasy value get impacted from the draft. Adjust your rankings accordingly!
WINNERS
Bryce Young, QB, Panthers. The Panthers did a great job of getting Young some much needed offensive help. The team took a receiver, running back and tight end in three of the first four rounds of the draft. Carolina already added Diontae Johnson this offseason, so the receiver corps should be much better after getting Xavier Legette in the first round. The receivers got very little separation last year, so it was hard to gauge Young. He needed help and got some this offseason. Carolina also took a possible franchise running back in Jonathon Brooks and hopefully a solid starting tight end in Ja’Tavion Sanders. Things are looking up for Young and this offense.
Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs. Worthy could not have landed in a much better spot. He heads to one of the best offenses in football that has some openings at receiver, especially with the status of Rashee Rice a bit up in the air. Worthy has electric speed and the Chiefs should find plenty of ways to utilize that. He could be the new Tyreek Hill for this offense. Look for Worthy to make an impact right away.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. Maybe one of the biggest surprises of the draft was the Cowboys not addressing their running back spot. Instead, the team signed Elliott after the draft. He is likely to be the starter in this top offense. He might not rack up the yards of past seasons, but has big touchdown potential in this offense. Elliott seems a pretty sure bet to get double-digit touchdowns. He could be a solid No. 2 for fantasy teams.
Jonathon Brooks, RB, Panthers. Brooks is returning from a major knee injury and could be slowed a little early in the season, but once he is back healthy look for him to the three-down back for the Panthers. He lands in a great spot for playing time, having little top talent to compete with for playing time. Brooks could really get the volume in this offense. He is our top rookie fantasy back.
Zamir White, RB, Raiders. Many thought the Raiders were another team that could address their running back spot during the draft, but that didn’t happen. They used a sixth-round pick on Dylan Laube, but he is not expected to challenge White for that starter’s job. It sure seems the Raiders are comfortable with White as their lead back. He has a chance to get a lot of touches in year two. His stock is going up.
Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers. The Chargers need help at receiver and McConkey helps fill that need. It would not surprise if he quickly became Justin Herbert’s favorite target in the passing game. We really like his chances to rack up the weekly looks in this offense. Someone has to fill the Keenan Allen void and McConkey seems the best bet out of the options at receiver for the Chargers.
Keon Coleman, WR, Bills. Coleman is another rookie receiver that lands in a great spot for playing time. The departure of Stefon Diggs leaves a big opening for the Bills. Coleman could help fill that void. He has great size for the position and could be a top red-zone threat from day one for Buffalo. Coleman should get his chances from the get go, giving him a high ceiling for the coming year.
LOSERS
Raheem Mostert, RB, Dolphins. Mostert had a monster season last year and helped many fantasy teams to championships. He is going to have a very hard time repeating, especially after the Dolphins picked Jaylen Wright in the fourth round. Wright is a speed back similar to Mostert but a lot younger with less wear on his tires. Remember, Mostert is 32 years old. He might end up falling to third on the depth chart after the addition of Wright.
Rome Odunze, WR, Bears. Odunze is a super talented player that could be a star in the NFL. But for his year, you have to worry about him being up and down. He has two really good receivers ahead of him on the depth chart in DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. This is going to limit the ceiling of Odunze. He will be a much better fantasy player in a few more seasons. For now, expect erratic production from the talented rookie.
Kyren Williams, RB, Rams. Williams remains the lead back for the Rams and is coming off a breakout season. But the Rams picked Blake Corum in the third round. He is going to be a factor in the offense. He might get put a huge dent in Williams’ workload but the big concern is the goal-line work. Corum is more of a between the tackles runner that does well on short-yardage work. He could end up stealing some touchdowns from Williams, hurting his fantasy value.
Michael Mayer, TE, Raiders. Mayer was a second-round pick for the Raiders last year and showed well at times his rookie season. The Raiders couldn’t pass on the talented Brock Browers in this year’s draft, though. This move absolutely kills the fantasy value of Mayer. He is going to play second fiddle to Browers, getting few weekly looks. Browers is the clear tight end to own in this offense.
Ricky Pearsall, WR, 49ers. Pearsall is a talented pass catcher that can get in and out of his breaks in a hurry. He is a really good fit for the slot and could fill that role for the 49ers his rookie season. The problem is he has some of the top talent in all of football to compete with for targets. He could really be up and down his rookie season. He will look better in a year or two when he has a more defined role and less to compete with at receiver. His rookie season could be a tough one to gauge for fantasy owners.
Malik Nabers, WR, Giants. Many considered Nabers the top receiver in this year’s draft. He is super talented with a high fantasy ceiling. The problem for Nabers is he got drafted by the Giants, a team that really struggled offensively last year. Plus, he has Daniel Jones throwing him passes. This is not a great landing spot for the talented Nabers. Jones needs to make some big strides this season if Nabers hopes to reach his potential. We aren’t sure that happens.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 3
Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Aidan O'Connell took over for Gardner Minshew II in Sunday's matchup with the Panthers. Minshew didn't play the worst, throwing for 214 yards, one touchdown, and one pick off 18-for-28 passing. However, with the Panthers up big, the change was made. With that in mind, the situation is worth monitoring ahead of the Week 4 game with the Browns. But at this point, Minshew or O'Connell wouldn't draw much fantasy interest for the meeting with Cleveland.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix completed 25-of-36 passes for 217 yards, adding 47 rushing yards and a touchdown in Denver's blowout win against Tampa Bay. Dynasty Analysis: Nix took a big step forward today, making smart throws and essentially taking what the Bucs gave him. This was his best game so far this season and he certainly looked very comfortable all day today. Nix still needs to string together a few solid games, but this was a major step forward. He remains a solid QB2 hold in dynasty leagues.
Dynasty | Broncos running back Javonte Williams had 12 rushing yards, four catches and 29 receiving yards in a win against Tampa Bay. Dynasty Analysis: Williams now has just 52 rushing yards through three games. While his receiving prowess is keeping some fantasy appeal alive for him, it seems the resurgence some had expected simply may not happen. Williams remains a hold (and the starter), but he belongs on fantasy benches until we see something positive from him.
Dynasty | Bucs running back Bucky Irving had 70 rushing yards, three catches, and 14 receiving yards in a loss against Denver. Dynasty Analysis: Simply put, Irving has looked better than Rachaad White through three weeks. He also out-carried him 9-6 and had 12 total touches compared to 11 for White today. Neither back is seeing the volume to be a recommended play at the moment, but Irving is starting to look like a rookie bargain at the moment.
Dynasty | Steelers quarterback Justin Fields completed 25-of-32 passes for 245 yards, with one touchdown and one interception in Pittsburgh's win against the Chargers. Dynasty Analysis: He added six rushing yards and a touchdown. Fields is now 3-0 on the season and it seems like a near certainty he remains the Steelers starter moving forward. Russell Wilson is reportedly close to a return but Pittsburgh has created some masterful game plans with Fields at the helm and that seems highly unlikely to change. Fields has some low-end QB1 appeal with his rushing ability and should be held on to tightly at the moment. As for Wilson, Fields' success is bad news.
Dynasty | Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston had two catches for 44 yards and a touchdown in a loss against the Steelers. Dynasty Analysis: Johnston now has three touchdowns in two games after having just two in his rookie season last year. While much of the off-season talk revolved around Ladd McConkey, it's been Johnston who has established himself as the better fantasy scoring threat through two weeks. He remains a bit of a dangerous start at the moment, but his start is a huge step forward for a player who many felt was already a bust.
Dynasty | Chargers running back JK Dobbins had 44 rushing yards, three catches and ten receiving yards in a loss against the Steelers. Dynasty Analysis: While the scoring total for Dobbins today is disappointing, there is a big development hidden in the box score as Dobbins handled 18 touches while Gus Edwards had just three. At this point, it seems this is no longer a committee with the Chargers as Dobbins has simply taken over the backfield. This is a big development as Dobbins continues to be one of the biggest risers in terms of dynasty rankings over the first month of the season. In short, he finally looks healthy.
Dynasty | Eagles running back Saquon Barkley had 147 rushing yards, four catches, nine receiving yards, two touchdowns and a two-point conversion in a road win against the Saints. Dynasty Analysis: Barkley had been bottled up for most of the day until he ripped through the Saints defense for a Philadelphia wisely rode Barkley the rest of way and were able to pull out the win. Despite the dropped pass last week, Saquon has played at a RB1 level so far this season and remains a solid hold in dynasty leagues.
Dynasty | Dallas Goedert had ten catches for 170 yards in the Eagles win against the Saints. Dynasty Analysis: The only thing Goedert from a truly historic day was the lack of a touchdown, one he almost had a long gain in the second half before being knocked out of bounds. This will likely go down as Goedert's best fantasy day of the year, but also showed he still has TE1/2 appeal in dynasty leagues. He'll attempt to keep it going next week against Tampa Bay.
Dynasty | Saints wide receiver Rashid Shaheed was held without a catch in the Saints loss against the Eagles. Dynasty Analysis: It was a brutal day for Shaheed, who could have come down with two different touchdowns but failed to corral either of them. His five targets were consistent with previous weeks but today showed he still has major boom or bust potential on a week-to-week basis despite his solid start. Shaheed likely should stay on benches until we see more consistency but he's a solid player to have on rosters at the moment.
Dynasty | Texans running back Cam Akers had 21 rushing yards, adding one catch for eight yards and a touchdown in the Texans blowout loss to Minnesota. Dynasty Analysis: Akers saved his day with a score but was relatively ineffective in this one. The game script changed for Houston early as they fell behind, but this is what we've seen from Akers over the past couple of years - mediocre numbers. If Joe Mixon misses another week, he's going to be a tough player to suggest playing until we see something of substance.
Dynasty | Texans wide receiver Stefon Diggs caught ten passes for 94 yards in Houston's loss against the Vikings. Dynasty Analysis: This was a big day for Diggs, who led the Texans with 12 targets. While Nico Collins still had ten, the narrative that Collins is clearly the WR1 for the team may have been a little premature. With 20 catches through three games, Diggs will be a recommended play moving forward, despite a receiving room that seems pretty stacked.
Dynasty | Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold completed 17-of-28 passes for 181 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in a blowout win over Houston. Dynasty Analysis: So far, so good for Darnold and the 3-0 Vikings. At this point, Darnold has eight touchdown passes and just two interceptions on the season and clearly looks like the player the Jets thought they drafted a few years ago. While there's a long way to go this season, Darnold looks like a Comeback Player of the Year candidate and a legitimate starting quarterback in the league. The Vikings will have decisions to make in the future regarding his future (and that of JJ McCarthy), but they'll worry about that later. Darnold has QB1/2 appeal moving forward and should be on rosters everywhere.
Dynasty | Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson completed just 10-of-20 passes for 167 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions, adding 24 rushing yards in the Colts win against Chicago. Dynasty Analysis: The Colts won the game in spite of Richardson, not because of him. Richardson has been inconsistent thus far with a completion percentage around only 50% with three touchdowns and six interceptions on the season. At this point, the Colts need to see a lot more from him to really believe he's a franchise savior because early returns have been spotty. Still, it's early in the season and while Richardson is making mistakes (today's end zone interception was inexcusable), he should have time to grow.
Dynasty | Bears quarterback Caleb Williams completed 33-of-52 passes for 363 yards, with two touchdowns and two interceptions in the Bears loss to the Colts. Dynasty Analysis: This game was a total mess as nobody could imagine the Bears game script would include Williams throwing the ball more than 50 times. However, that's exactly what happened as they trailed most of the day. The numbers look good but Williams clearly has a long way to go as he also made some terrible mistakes and poor throws. You can see the potential, but Williams should remain on benches, despite being a solid dynasty hold at the moment.
Dynasty | Bears wide receiver Rome Odunze had a career-high six catches for 112 yards and a touchdown in a loss against the Colts. Dynasty Analysis: With Keenan Allen out this week, Odunze tied Cole Kmet for the team lead in targets with 11. He certainly made the most of them as he had his best day in the NFL by far. While Allen should be back soon, it's clear Odunze has the talent of a top-ten pick and has earned himself a pretty good target share moving forward. With an unpredictable rookie at the helm, this corps is going to be tough to count on moving forward, but Odunze looks like a solid dynasty hold right now.
Dynasty | Packers quarterback Malik Willis completed 13-of-19 passes for 202 yards, with one touchdown and no interceptions, while adding a team-high 73 rushing yards and a touchdown in a win against Tennessee. Dynasty Analysis: You have to wonder if the Titans brass was second guessing themselves as their former developmental quarterback was carving them up via a flawless game plan. Willis has some limitations but he has also proved he's more than capable of playing at a high level, at least in a short-term burst. Jordan Love should be back next week, but it seems clear the Packers may have found something in Willis. He should be rostered in any dynasty league that has more than 20 or so players on a roster.
Dynasty | Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers had eight catches for 78 yards and two touchdowns in a surprise win against Cleveland. Dynasty Analysis: One thing is clear this season - Nabers is here to stay. After a 10/127/1 game last week, Nabers was even better this week with his 8/78/2 line. Regardless, he has the looks not only of a future WR1, but a current one as well. While his potential may be slowed by Daniel Jones, he's proven to be more than worthy of his draft capital and his ranking is going to go up as soon as this week. In short, Nabers is a top-10 dynasty receiver already.
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (ankle) is back in a walking boot after exiting Sunday's loss to the Steelers. The injury is nothing new, with the signal-caller reporting he aggravated the high-ankle sprain that nearly prevented him from suiting up in Week 3. He underwent X-rays and likely has further testing on the horizon. Still, Herbert hopes he will be healthy enough to suit up for the Week 4 meeting with the Kansas City Chiefs. But, if he isn't active for that one, Taylor Heinicke, finishing with 24 yards off 2-for-2 passing in Week 3, would likely take over as the starting quarterback.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton came out of nowhere with a breakout performance in Week 3. Otton was barely involved through the first two games before becoming the reception leader during Sunday's game against the Denver Broncos. Otton hauled in seven of his eight targets for 47 yards in the loss. Quarterback Baker Mayfield was pressured all game long and needed to make quick short throws. The third-year tight end didn't have a ton of yardage, but this is a positive sign. It remains to be seen if this was a fluke or if Otton can be a viable option in this offense.
From RotoBaller
