QB Strength of Schedule
Thu May 23 11:12am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Prescott setup for big success
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the quarterback position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the quarterbacks with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the quarterbacks that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| QB SOS | ||
| 1. | Miami Dolphins | 313.6 |
| 2. | Cincinnati Bengals | 314.77 |
| 3. | Los Angeles Chargers | 317.32 |
| 4. | Denver Broncos | 317.38 |
| 5. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 320.33 |
| 6. | Houston Texans | 320.74 |
| 7. | Buffalo Bills | 321.01 |
| 8. | Philadelphia Eagles | 323.71 |
| 9. | Kansas City Chiefs | 325.08 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 325.12 |
| 11. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 326.4 |
| 12. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 328.45 |
| 13. | New York Jets | 329.06 |
| 14. | New England Patriots | 329.64 |
| 15. | Cleveland Browns | 330.31 |
| 16. | Los Angeles Rams | 330.72 |
| 17. | Arizona Cardinals | 331.54 |
| 18. | Indianapolis Colts | 331.69 |
| 19. | Seattle Seahawks | 332 |
| 20. | Atlanta Falcons | 332.73 |
| 21. | Baltimore Ravens | 333.05 |
| 22. | San Francisco 49ers | 333.05 |
| 23. | Detroit Lions | 334.13 |
| 24. | Las Vegas Raiders | 334.38 |
| 25. | New York Giants | 334.72 |
| 26. | New Orleans Saints | 336.27 |
| 27. | Minnesota Vikings | 337.2 |
| 28. | Dallas Cowboys | 339.64 |
| 29. | Chicago Bears | 340.70 |
| 30. | Tennessee Titans | 343.69 |
| 31. | Carolina Panthers | 345.54 |
| 32. | Green Bay Packers | 349.53 |
The Packers have the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks. Jordan Love already had a breakout season last year and could take his game to an even higher level this season. Love is shaping up to be a really intriguing QB1 this season. He is a player on the rise and seems setup for even more success this year.
A couple second-year quarterbacks have really favorable schedules, Will Levis and Bryce Young. Both seem like good No. 2 fantasy quarterbacks to take a chance. Their teams did well in upgrading the talent around them this offseason and a favorable schedule bodes well for them to take some steps forward this year.
Caleb Williams was the No.1 overall pick and the Bears gave him plenty of firepower to work with in year one. Williams has a lot of good going for him this year and could be the C.J. Stroud of this year’s rookie class. And having a favorable fantasy schedule helps Williams even more.
A couple veterans with favorable schedules are Dak Prescott and Derek Carr. Prescott is the one that stands out the most. The Cowboys are lacking top options at the running back spot, so it would not surprise if the Cowboys are really pass-heavy offensively. Prescott could really rack up the numbers this year.
There are some big-name quarterbacks on the opposite side of things, having very tough fantasy schedules. Tua Tagovalioa has the toughest schedule of all. He struggled a little down the stretch last year and now has the most unfavorable schedule for any fantasy quarterback. This is a little concerning.
Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and whoever is starting in Pittsburgh, likely Russell Wilson, are other veteran quarterbacks that have a top-five unfavorable schedule for fantasy quarterbacks. Burrow is not a huge concern for us because we think they will still have success throwing the ball and he has a ton of talent around him at receiver. Herbert is a concern. The Chargers lost their top two receivers and could be a lot more run-heavy with a new coach in place. Herbert has some red flags for him this coming year, making him a bit of a risky pick for fantasy teams. Wilson is another veteran with a tough schedule. He also has Justin Fields pushing him to play, so Wilson is going to be a boom or bust fantasy pick.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy quarterbacks. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the quarterbacks with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| QB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 292.02 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 299.33 |
| 3. | New York Giants | 301.93 |
| 4. | Miami Dolphins | 307.48 |
| 5. | Los Angeles Rams | 308.45 |
| 6. | Detroit Lions | 312.4 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 313.15 |
| 8. | Kansas City Chiefs | 313.45 |
| 9. | Buffalo Bills | 313.6 |
| 10. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 317.53 |
| 11. | Cincinnati Bengals | 318.03 |
| 12. | Baltimore Ravens | 318.25 |
| 13. | Green Bay Packers | 322.48 |
| 14. | Indianapolis Colts | 322.83 |
| 15. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 328.78 |
| 16. | Philadelphia Eagles | 331.23 |
| 17. | Cleveland Browns | 331.95 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 334.68 |
| 19. | Atlanta Falcons | 336.18 |
| 20. | Carolina Panthers | 338.62 |
| 21. | Seattle Seahawks | 338.65 |
| 22. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.18 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 341.22 |
| 24. | New York Jets | 344.3 |
| 25. | New Orleans Saints | 346.68 |
| 26. | Chicago Bears | 347.07 |
| 27. | Tennessee Titans | 348.42 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 355.23 |
| 29. | Denver Broncos | 355.35 |
| 30. | Dallas Cowboys | 359.62 |
| 31. | Washington Commanders | 359.92 |
| 32. | San Francisco 49ers | 363.47 |
There is just a team that makes both the top-five favorable quarterback schedule for the regular season and playoffs. That team is the Cowboys. So Dak Prescott has the third easiest playoff schedule in addition to having the fifth easiest regular season schedule. Prescott was a player looking pretty good even before seeing these schedules, so you might want to bump him up a few spots in your rankings after seeing this. Prescott could be a league winner in 2024.
The 49ers actually have the easiest fantasy quarterback schedule for the playoffs. So Brock Purdy could have a great run during the fantasy playoffs. He always has a high weekly ceiling, so things are looking great for him this postseason.
Now some rookie quarterbacks round out the team of having top-five fantasy quarterback playoff schedules. Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix and Drake Maye are all likely starting for their teams later in the season, so they should help fantasy teams during the playoffs. They all have some question marks surrounding them but could be worth the gamble, especially if you have a dependable starter already on your roster. These rookies could make some noise late in the season.
On the opposite side of things, the Dolphins are the only team to have both a top-five unfavorable fantasy quarterback schedule for the regular season and playoffs. We already had a few concerns for Tagovalioa even before these schedules were released. And now seeing he has very challenging schedules for both the regular season and playoffs make him a player you might want to avoid come draft day.
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars have the toughest schedule for the playoffs. Lawrence has not lived up to expectations to date. He could have his best season to date this year, but his schedule during the playoffs is concerning. Lawrence could struggle when it matters most.
C.J. Stroud is the biggest name of any quarterback with a top-five unfavorable playoff schedule. We aren’t too concerned about this because some players can rise above the challenge. Stroud is one of those players. Things will be tougher for him in year two, but he will also progress and get better. Plus, he has Stefon Diggs added to the mix, which should improve that passing game even more.
Daniel Jones is another quarterback with a challenging playoff schedule. He is another fringe draft pick to begin with, so seeing him possibly have struggles down the stretch causes more trepidation when it comes to possibly drafting him. He might be another player to just steer clear of come draft day.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 3
Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Aidan O'Connell took over for Gardner Minshew II in Sunday's matchup with the Panthers. Minshew didn't play the worst, throwing for 214 yards, one touchdown, and one pick off 18-for-28 passing. However, with the Panthers up big, the change was made. With that in mind, the situation is worth monitoring ahead of the Week 4 game with the Browns. But at this point, Minshew or O'Connell wouldn't draw much fantasy interest for the meeting with Cleveland.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix completed 25-of-36 passes for 217 yards, adding 47 rushing yards and a touchdown in Denver's blowout win against Tampa Bay. Dynasty Analysis: Nix took a big step forward today, making smart throws and essentially taking what the Bucs gave him. This was his best game so far this season and he certainly looked very comfortable all day today. Nix still needs to string together a few solid games, but this was a major step forward. He remains a solid QB2 hold in dynasty leagues.
Dynasty | Broncos running back Javonte Williams had 12 rushing yards, four catches and 29 receiving yards in a win against Tampa Bay. Dynasty Analysis: Williams now has just 52 rushing yards through three games. While his receiving prowess is keeping some fantasy appeal alive for him, it seems the resurgence some had expected simply may not happen. Williams remains a hold (and the starter), but he belongs on fantasy benches until we see something positive from him.
Dynasty | Bucs running back Bucky Irving had 70 rushing yards, three catches, and 14 receiving yards in a loss against Denver. Dynasty Analysis: Simply put, Irving has looked better than Rachaad White through three weeks. He also out-carried him 9-6 and had 12 total touches compared to 11 for White today. Neither back is seeing the volume to be a recommended play at the moment, but Irving is starting to look like a rookie bargain at the moment.
Dynasty | Steelers quarterback Justin Fields completed 25-of-32 passes for 245 yards, with one touchdown and one interception in Pittsburgh's win against the Chargers. Dynasty Analysis: He added six rushing yards and a touchdown. Fields is now 3-0 on the season and it seems like a near certainty he remains the Steelers starter moving forward. Russell Wilson is reportedly close to a return but Pittsburgh has created some masterful game plans with Fields at the helm and that seems highly unlikely to change. Fields has some low-end QB1 appeal with his rushing ability and should be held on to tightly at the moment. As for Wilson, Fields' success is bad news.
Dynasty | Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston had two catches for 44 yards and a touchdown in a loss against the Steelers. Dynasty Analysis: Johnston now has three touchdowns in two games after having just two in his rookie season last year. While much of the off-season talk revolved around Ladd McConkey, it's been Johnston who has established himself as the better fantasy scoring threat through two weeks. He remains a bit of a dangerous start at the moment, but his start is a huge step forward for a player who many felt was already a bust.
Dynasty | Chargers running back JK Dobbins had 44 rushing yards, three catches and ten receiving yards in a loss against the Steelers. Dynasty Analysis: While the scoring total for Dobbins today is disappointing, there is a big development hidden in the box score as Dobbins handled 18 touches while Gus Edwards had just three. At this point, it seems this is no longer a committee with the Chargers as Dobbins has simply taken over the backfield. This is a big development as Dobbins continues to be one of the biggest risers in terms of dynasty rankings over the first month of the season. In short, he finally looks healthy.
Dynasty | Eagles running back Saquon Barkley had 147 rushing yards, four catches, nine receiving yards, two touchdowns and a two-point conversion in a road win against the Saints. Dynasty Analysis: Barkley had been bottled up for most of the day until he ripped through the Saints defense for a Philadelphia wisely rode Barkley the rest of way and were able to pull out the win. Despite the dropped pass last week, Saquon has played at a RB1 level so far this season and remains a solid hold in dynasty leagues.
Dynasty | Dallas Goedert had ten catches for 170 yards in the Eagles win against the Saints. Dynasty Analysis: The only thing Goedert from a truly historic day was the lack of a touchdown, one he almost had a long gain in the second half before being knocked out of bounds. This will likely go down as Goedert's best fantasy day of the year, but also showed he still has TE1/2 appeal in dynasty leagues. He'll attempt to keep it going next week against Tampa Bay.
Dynasty | Saints wide receiver Rashid Shaheed was held without a catch in the Saints loss against the Eagles. Dynasty Analysis: It was a brutal day for Shaheed, who could have come down with two different touchdowns but failed to corral either of them. His five targets were consistent with previous weeks but today showed he still has major boom or bust potential on a week-to-week basis despite his solid start. Shaheed likely should stay on benches until we see more consistency but he's a solid player to have on rosters at the moment.
Dynasty | Texans running back Cam Akers had 21 rushing yards, adding one catch for eight yards and a touchdown in the Texans blowout loss to Minnesota. Dynasty Analysis: Akers saved his day with a score but was relatively ineffective in this one. The game script changed for Houston early as they fell behind, but this is what we've seen from Akers over the past couple of years - mediocre numbers. If Joe Mixon misses another week, he's going to be a tough player to suggest playing until we see something of substance.
Dynasty | Texans wide receiver Stefon Diggs caught ten passes for 94 yards in Houston's loss against the Vikings. Dynasty Analysis: This was a big day for Diggs, who led the Texans with 12 targets. While Nico Collins still had ten, the narrative that Collins is clearly the WR1 for the team may have been a little premature. With 20 catches through three games, Diggs will be a recommended play moving forward, despite a receiving room that seems pretty stacked.
Dynasty | Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold completed 17-of-28 passes for 181 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in a blowout win over Houston. Dynasty Analysis: So far, so good for Darnold and the 3-0 Vikings. At this point, Darnold has eight touchdown passes and just two interceptions on the season and clearly looks like the player the Jets thought they drafted a few years ago. While there's a long way to go this season, Darnold looks like a Comeback Player of the Year candidate and a legitimate starting quarterback in the league. The Vikings will have decisions to make in the future regarding his future (and that of JJ McCarthy), but they'll worry about that later. Darnold has QB1/2 appeal moving forward and should be on rosters everywhere.
Dynasty | Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson completed just 10-of-20 passes for 167 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions, adding 24 rushing yards in the Colts win against Chicago. Dynasty Analysis: The Colts won the game in spite of Richardson, not because of him. Richardson has been inconsistent thus far with a completion percentage around only 50% with three touchdowns and six interceptions on the season. At this point, the Colts need to see a lot more from him to really believe he's a franchise savior because early returns have been spotty. Still, it's early in the season and while Richardson is making mistakes (today's end zone interception was inexcusable), he should have time to grow.
Dynasty | Bears quarterback Caleb Williams completed 33-of-52 passes for 363 yards, with two touchdowns and two interceptions in the Bears loss to the Colts. Dynasty Analysis: This game was a total mess as nobody could imagine the Bears game script would include Williams throwing the ball more than 50 times. However, that's exactly what happened as they trailed most of the day. The numbers look good but Williams clearly has a long way to go as he also made some terrible mistakes and poor throws. You can see the potential, but Williams should remain on benches, despite being a solid dynasty hold at the moment.
Dynasty | Bears wide receiver Rome Odunze had a career-high six catches for 112 yards and a touchdown in a loss against the Colts. Dynasty Analysis: With Keenan Allen out this week, Odunze tied Cole Kmet for the team lead in targets with 11. He certainly made the most of them as he had his best day in the NFL by far. While Allen should be back soon, it's clear Odunze has the talent of a top-ten pick and has earned himself a pretty good target share moving forward. With an unpredictable rookie at the helm, this corps is going to be tough to count on moving forward, but Odunze looks like a solid dynasty hold right now.
Dynasty | Packers quarterback Malik Willis completed 13-of-19 passes for 202 yards, with one touchdown and no interceptions, while adding a team-high 73 rushing yards and a touchdown in a win against Tennessee. Dynasty Analysis: You have to wonder if the Titans brass was second guessing themselves as their former developmental quarterback was carving them up via a flawless game plan. Willis has some limitations but he has also proved he's more than capable of playing at a high level, at least in a short-term burst. Jordan Love should be back next week, but it seems clear the Packers may have found something in Willis. He should be rostered in any dynasty league that has more than 20 or so players on a roster.
Dynasty | Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers had eight catches for 78 yards and two touchdowns in a surprise win against Cleveland. Dynasty Analysis: One thing is clear this season - Nabers is here to stay. After a 10/127/1 game last week, Nabers was even better this week with his 8/78/2 line. Regardless, he has the looks not only of a future WR1, but a current one as well. While his potential may be slowed by Daniel Jones, he's proven to be more than worthy of his draft capital and his ranking is going to go up as soon as this week. In short, Nabers is a top-10 dynasty receiver already.
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (ankle) is back in a walking boot after exiting Sunday's loss to the Steelers. The injury is nothing new, with the signal-caller reporting he aggravated the high-ankle sprain that nearly prevented him from suiting up in Week 3. He underwent X-rays and likely has further testing on the horizon. Still, Herbert hopes he will be healthy enough to suit up for the Week 4 meeting with the Kansas City Chiefs. But, if he isn't active for that one, Taylor Heinicke, finishing with 24 yards off 2-for-2 passing in Week 3, would likely take over as the starting quarterback.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton came out of nowhere with a breakout performance in Week 3. Otton was barely involved through the first two games before becoming the reception leader during Sunday's game against the Denver Broncos. Otton hauled in seven of his eight targets for 47 yards in the loss. Quarterback Baker Mayfield was pressured all game long and needed to make quick short throws. The third-year tight end didn't have a ton of yardage, but this is a positive sign. It remains to be seen if this was a fluke or if Otton can be a viable option in this offense.
From RotoBaller
