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Any Given Sunday 5 Est. 2015
FFL: Preseason | NFL: Week 1

RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Austin Ekeler Jun 14 9:20am ET
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Washington Commanders new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury appears to be using some two-running back sets during mandatory minicamp this week involving Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler. In what will be a vastly different offense under Kingsbury in 2024 with rookie first-round quarterback Jayden Daniels at the helm, Washington figures to use Robinson as more of the between-the-tackles, early-down back, with Ekeler serving as the primary pass-catcher out of the backfield. The 25-year-old Robinson had 43 targets in 2023, but he stands to lose a hefty amount of targets to Ekeler this year. With more competition from Ekeler, B-Rob is going to need to remain productive and hold onto the football to be a viable RB3/flex for fantasy managers in standard-scoring leagues. Ekeler should be more valuable as an RB3/flex in point-per-reception formats.

Trevor Lawrence Jun 14 2:13am ET
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Dynasty | The Jaguars have signed quarterback Trevor Lawrence to a contract extension. Dynasty Analysis: Lawrence and the Jags agree to a five-year, $275 million contract extension with a reported $200 million guaranteed, including $142 million up front. Lawrence also received a $37.5 million signing bonus. It's a massive contract for a quarterback billed as the "next great thing" but realistically performing as "the next good thing." Lawrence is currently ranked as our QB9 and that seems about right for a player who has yet to really show he's truly an elite fantasy option.

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Marcus Maye Jun 14 1:03am ET
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The Miami Dolphins officially signed free-agent S Marcus Maye (Saints) on Thursday, June 13.

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Jordan Phillips Jun 13 10:53pm ET
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New York Giants DT Jordan Phillips (wrist) has not participated in minicamp and was limited to individual work during offseason activities as he recovers from wrist surgery.

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Calais Campbell Jun 13 8:43pm ET
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Free-agent DE Calais Campbell (Falcons) agreed to terms with the Miami Dolphins Thursday, June 13, according to sources. Terms of the contract were not disclosed.

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Myles Garrett Jun 13 5:13pm ET
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Updating a previous report, Cleveland Browns DE Myles Garrett (hamstring) is expected to be fine despite suffering a hamstring injury during practice Thursday, June 13, according to head coach Kevin Stefanski.

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Lamar Jackson Jun 13 4:23pm ET
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Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson could earn more pre-snap responsibilities in his second year under offensive coordinator Todd Monken, according to recent comments from quarterbacks coach Tee Martin. 'It takes him understanding how we're blocking things up front to get us to the best run and the best pass for whatever coverage we're facing. He's accepted it and done a heck of a job of getting us into the right play, and today was probably the best day in a long time of him really just having the freedom to do what he wants to do. We saw some really good plays and some positive gains with him doing that today,' Martin said.

Fantasy Spin: Jackson reportedly dropped 20 pounds this offseason and appears to be taking on more of a leadership role than he ever has in 2024. The addition of Derrick Henry - combined with what should be a more explosive Jackson than we have seen in recent years - could set up the two-time NFL MVP for another career year. Jackson should be considered a strong overall QB1 candidate this season.

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Marlon Humphrey Jun 13 4:03pm ET
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Baltimore Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey (undisclosed) has been limited to mostly individual work this offseason, but head coach John Harbaugh suggested after the team's final minicamp practice on Thursday, June 13, that Humphrey 'should be ready for training camp.'

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Taysom Hill Jun 13 3:33pm ET
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New Orleans Saints QB Taysom Hill reportedly agreed to a restructured contract that converted his base salary to a signing bonus and lowered his salary cap number from $15.7 million to $6.8 million.

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Myles Garrett Jun 13 3:13pm ET
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Cleveland Browns DE Myles Garrett (hamstring) suffered an apparent left hamstring injury during an early defensive line drill during minicamp practice on Thursday, June 13.

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Marcus Mariota Jun 13 2:43pm ET
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Washington Commanders QBs Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota each saw significant snaps with the first team during the spring and nothing has been determined yet in regards to which one will start the season, according to head coach Dan Quinn on Thursday, June 13.

Fantasy Spin: By all accounts, Daniels has been sharp so far - a sentiment that Quinn confirmed Thursday. It would likely take a meltdown of epic proportions for the No. 2 overall pick in this spring's draft to not win the job. Assuming that is the case, Daniels' combination of anticipation and athleticism should make him a strong fantasy QB1 option right out of the gate.

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Alvin Kamara Jun 13 2:23pm ET
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New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara skipped the team's final mandatory minicamp practice on Thursday, June 13, due to what is believed to be contract-related reasons, according to Jeff Duncan of NOLA.com.

Fantasy Spin: Kamara will get nearly a $10 million bump on his base salary over the last two years, so that is likely not the issue. NFL Network's Mike Garafolo reports the two sides have been discussing a contract restructure for a few months, likely with an eye on 2025 when Kamara is set to make $25 million. Expect the two sides to get something worked out over the next month or two to keep Kamara in New Orleans at a much lower number past this season.

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DeAndre Carter Jun 13 12:13pm ET
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Free-agent WR DeAndre Carter (Raiders) signed an undisclosed deal with the Chicago Bears, according to sources Thursday, June 13.

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Jonathon Brooks Jun 13 12:10pm ET
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Romeo Doubs Jun 13 12:10pm ET
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Marquise Brown Jun 13 12:10pm ET
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Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Marquise Brown signed a one-year deal with the organization this offseason, and he has been heavily involved in the passing attack during OTAs and minicamp. The 2019 first-round pick has a path to the No. 1 wide receiver role, especially with Rashee Rice's legal troubles and Xavier Worthy's (hamstring) injury that is keeping him out of practice. Brown said he is building chemistry with Patrick Mahomes early in camp. "It has been good, from when we first started going back in Dallas until now," Brown said. "Just keep improving. He's trusting me more, so that's good." While "Hollywood" has not lived up to his first-round status, he has a 1,000-yard season under his belt and has hauled in 313 passes for 3,644 yards, and 28 touchdowns through his first 72 games with the Baltimore Ravens and Arizona Cardinals. He's unlikely to be a volume hog with Kansas City, but he should have chances for several spike weeks catching passes from the best quarterback of his career.

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