Lineup Prep: Divisional Round Games
Wed Jan 18 8:43am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Kelce should get plenty of targets
And then there were eight. Yes, eight teams left for a right to go to the Super Bowl. It should be a great weekend of action. I think all the games should be very competitive and could go either way. I really mean that. The Giants are big underdogs but just keep getting better each week. And Daniel Jones is playing some great football. So needless to say, I’m really looking forward to the action this week. It should be great!
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .
If I’m an NFL team, I’m not sure I pursue Tom Brady. I just don’t know how much he has left in the tank. The only scenario that makes sense to be is if I draft a quarterback I don’t trust as a rookie. You hate to count him out, but I’m just not sure he is going to be a difference maker at this stage of his career. He just misses on some throws he normally makes and will be another year older next season.
I can’t see how the Chargers bring back Brandon Staley as head coach. That teams has too much talent to disappoint like they have this year. That offense needs a big-time spark, wasting some elite talent on that side of the ball. And Staley playing his starters in a meaningless game at the end of the year made no sense. It cost him with Mike Williams getting hurt. And then he blows a game in the playoffs he was up by 27 points. It sounds like the Chargers will bring him back, though, which is not good news for that team in my view.
You have to wonder what the Cowboys are going to do at kicker after Brett Maher missed four extra points last week. That has to be a huge concern for them. Every point matters so much in the playoffs. A missed extra point could be the difference between moving on or going home. I can’t see the team having much faith in him after that display last week. It is tough to make a change at this point, though, especially with Maher kicking so well during the regular season.
So the big question this offseason is where does Lamar Jackson land. He is not coming back to the Ravens. That much I do know. I like the Jets as a fit. A young, up and coming team that sorely needs a franchise quarterback. He would have a lot of talent to work with offensively and could be a good fit there. I actually like the Falcons too as a landing spot. They have a strong running game and solid offensive line. Plus, it would be great seeing Jackson throw passes to Kyle Pitts. It should be an interesting offseason regarding Jackson. The good news is you can expect him to get moved before the draft, so we should know sooner than later.
That was quite the performance from Trevor Lawrence last week. He showed me a lot, coming back from his four interceptions. He could have folded and quit after the start to his game. That didn’t happen. He kept plugging along and adjusted to his first-half mistakes. Lawrence just keeps impressing me on a weekly basis. He is going to be a good one for years to come.
I’m anxious to see how Brock Purdy responds when he is called on in a close game. The stage hasn’t been too big for him to start his career, but it is going to just keep getting bigger for him as his team advances in the playoffs. He has answered every question to date, which has been impressive. How will he do if asked to complete a game-winning drive at the end of a game? It will be fun to watch.
News and Notes: The Titans hired 49ers director of pro personnel Ran Carthon as their new general manager. Carthon comes from a great organization and could be a great get for the Titans organization. . . . .Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has informed interested teams that he's staying in Detroit in 2023. This is great news for the Lions offense, keeping Johnson in the fold for next season.
HOT PLAYS
Christian Kirk, WR, Jaguars. Kirk had a great showing in the Jaguars playoff opener, scoring 21.8 fantasy points. He has 21-plus points two straight games. He has been great as the top target in the Jaguars passing game. Expect more of the same this week against Kansas City. Kirk had nine receptions for 105 yards and two touchdowns against the Chiefs in Week 10. The Chiefs allow the eighth most fantasy points to receivers.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce is a must start every week, but look for the Chiefs to lean on him even more in the playoffs. Kelce has not scored touchdown since Week 12, but has four games with double-digit fantasy points during the stretch. He gets his weekly chances. Kelce had six catches for 81 yards and a touchdown against this same Jaguars team earlier this season. The Jaguars also have struggled to stop the tight end this year, allowing the seventh most fantasy points to tight ends.
Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles. Sanders had his best season to date this year. He topped 1,200-rushing yards and scored 11 touchdowns in the Eagles explosive offense. He has enjoyed some huge games, including one against the Giants in Week 14. He ran 17 times for a season-high 144 yards and two scores in that game. He could get a big workload again this week against a Giants team that ranks 27th overall against the run.
COLD PLAYS
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. Elliott is becoming a touchdown dependent fantasy play. He just isn’t doing much outside of finding the end zone. He has fewer than 40-rushing yards his last three games. He has run 21 times for just 37 yards his last two. We just aren’t sure he is worth the risk right now for fantasy teams. The 49ers also have been great against the run this year, ranking first overall in fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs. The 49ers are second overall against the run, allowing 77.7-rushing yards per game.
Isaiah Hodgins, WR, Giants. Hodgins had his best game of the season last week, catching eight passes for 105 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. He has been a big surprise down the stretch for the Giants, emerging as a top threat in the passing game opposite Richie Jams. But even with that said, he has just two games all season with more than 50 yards. He has been mediocre more than outstanding. And a matchup against a great Eagles secondary is not a good one for him. Philadelphia is first overall against the pass, allowing just 179.8-passing yards per game.
Gabriel Davis, WR, Bills. Davis has been up and down all season, frustrating fantasy owners. He was up last week, catching six passes for 113 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. It was a great showing for Davis. You just never know what you are going to get with him, though. He has a really tough matchup against a rapidly improving Bengals defense, a secondary that allows the sixth fewest fantasy points to receivers. It might be a down game for Davis this week.
SLEEPERS
Hayden Hurst, TE, Bengals. Hurst hasn’t been off the charts this year, but pretty consistent for the Bengals. He has at least four receptions nine times. And he has been pretty involved in the offense since coming back from injury two weeks back. He has 11 targets his last two games and caught four passes each of those games. The Bills might focus on shutting down the high-powered receivers in the Bengals offense, giving Hurst a few more favorable looks. He might be a sneaky play for fantasy teams in this one.
Elijah Mitchell, RB, 49ers. Mitchell returned to action late in the year and has found the end zone each of the last two games he has played. He had just 27 total yards last week but had 11 touches in the game. The 49ers are getting him the ball, so expect more of the same for a team that likes to get multiple backs involved offensively. Plus, he gets a Cowboys team this week that has allowed some big rushing games this season. Dallas has allowed 150-plus rushing yards six times, including 200-plus yards twice. Mitchell could really do some damage with double-digit touches this week.
Cole Beasley, WR, Bills. Beasley had a season-high five targets last week for the Bills. He had two catches for 35 yards and his first touchdown of the season. He has a familiarity with Josh Allen and this offense, so he is worth a dart throw for fantasy teams in what could be a high-scoring game. It would not surprise to see Beasley find the end zone once again.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Jaguars/Chiefs, Bengals/Bills, Giants/Eagles.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
- Jets QB Aaron Rodgers: 'No restrictions' at OTAs
- Former Giants TE Aaron Thomas dies at 86
- Michael Irvin out at NFL Network
- Bills sign Chase Claypool, Deion Jones, Dawuane Smoot
- Dolphins, Odell Beckham Jr. agree to 1-year deal
- Chargers add wide receiver DJ Chark
- Chiefs decline WR Kadarius Toney's 2025 option
- Cowboys' Dak Prescott won't face charges for alleged assault
- Ravens sign 5 draft picks, including first-rounder Nate Wiggins
- Steelers decline RB Najee Harris' fifth-year option
- Colts guarantee edge rusher Kwity Paye $13.4M, pick up 2025 option
- Packers decline CB Eric Stokes' fifth-year option
- Cowboys decline $22.4M option on QB Trey Lance
- K Joey Slye reaches deal with Patriots
- Steelers' Justin Fields in mix for returning kicks
- Gaints sign veteran defensive back David Long Jr.
- Saints signing former Lions DB Will Harris
- Chiefs TE Travis Kelce 'extremely grateful' for new deal
- Bucs decline option on LB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka
- Broncos won't pick up QB Zach Wilson's option
- Fantasy Six Pack: IDP Expert Rookie Mock Draft – Post-NFL Draft
- Fantasy Six Pack: Dynasty Football Rookie TE Landing Spots
- Fantasy Six Pack: Dynasty Football Rookie WR Landing Spots
- Fantasy Six Pack: Football Football PPR Mock Draft: Post-NFL Draft
- Fantasy Six Pack: IDP Football Rookie Defensive Backs
The Paur Report
New York Jets rookie quarterback Jordan Travis (ankle), who was drafted by the Jets in the fifth round last week, won't take part in offseason workouts but should be cleared for training camp at the end of July, according to head coach Robert Saleh. The Jets took the Florida State star as a developmental prospect who can learn behind Aaron Rodgers and veteran backup Tyrod Taylor. Travis suffered a gruesome, season-ending ankle injury on Nov. 18 and required surgery. He rode a stationary bike on Friday during part of practice. "He's a tremendously talented young man and extremely gifted, especially athletically. He's got a lot of work to do for sure, especially with tying his lower half to his arm and all that good stuff, but he's a gifted athlete," Saleh said. Travis threw for 8,643 yards and 65 touchdowns while finishing his career with 17 straight wins for the Seminoles.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Miami Dolphins have signed wide receiver Odell Beckham, Jr. Dynasty Analysis: Beckham has been flirting with the Dolphins for weeks and now it's official. It's a one-year deal worth $3 million with incentives that can push its max value to $8.25 million. The incentives are likely going to be very tough for OBJ to meet with the likes of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle around. Still, it's another fresh start for Beckham, who hasn't had a 1,000-yard season 2019. He's still a hold in dynasty leagues but expecting a late-career renaissance seems to be asking a little too much at this point.
The New York Jets traded up to the first pick of the third round (No. 65) in the 2024 NFL Draft to select former Western Kentucky wide receiver Malachi Corley. In a recent media availability, Jets general manager Joe Douglas touted the rookie's run-after-catch skills and believes he's a great fit alongside Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams. "He really excels with the ball in his hands. When guys are really good at running after catch in college, it usually translates well in the pros," Douglas said. "If a guy has the ability to make people miss it's because they're really an elusive high-level athlete and if they're wired to compete. Our coaches are going to use that skill to turn him into an elite route runner." Needless to say, the team has high expectations for the 22-year-old -- and for good reason. In his final two collegiate campaigns, he caught 180 passes for 2,277 yards and 22 touchdowns.
From RotoBaller
The Buffalo Bills signed linebacker Deion Jones and defensive lineman Dawuane Smoot on Friday, according to NFL.com. The team moved on from several veterans on both sides of the ball this offseason, so Jones and Smoot could compete for playing time in 2024. Jones, a former second-round pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, earned Pro Bowl honors in 2017, but he hasn't lived up to his breakout campaign. In 109 games with the Falcons, Browns, and Panthers, he has racked up 731 tackles, 12 sacks, five forced fumbles, and 13 interceptions. Smoot, a former Jaguars third-round pick, spent the first seven seasons of his career with Jacksonville and compiled 23.5 sacks through his first 99 games.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh said that there will be no restrictions for quarterback Aaron Rodgers (Achilles) when Phase 3 of the offseason begins in two weeks, which consists of 10 organized team activity practices. "Once phase three hits, we're not anticipating any restrictions from what we can and can't do with him," Saleh said. Meanwhile, rookie QB Jordan Travis (ankle), is expected to be ready for training camp after suffering a devastating injury in November. The 40-year-old Rodgers is coming off a torn left Achilles that he suffered on the first offensive series of the season in 2023. The odds are against him returning to his MVP form with the Jets, but he's not lacking for offensive weapons around him if he can stay healthy in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Jalen Tolbert, who worked as the team's No. 4 wideout in his second season in 2023, is expected to have a bigger role in 2024 alongside CeeDee Lamb and veteran Brandin Cooks. Tolbert essentially split offensive snaps with Michael Gallup last year, but Gallup is now in Las Vegas. In 17 regular-season games (six starts) last year, Tolbert caught 22 of his 36 targets for 268 yards and two touchdowns after recording just two receptions in his rookie campaign in 2022. The 25-year-old former third-round pick in the 2022 NFL draft out of South Alabama won't necessarily be worth drafting in standard-sized fantasy leagues this fall, but if Lamb or Cooks go down with an injury at any point, Tolbert would become a popular waiver-wire pickup.
From RotoBaller
Darren Waller's expected retirement could open the door for Daniel Bellinger to become the New York Giants' No. 1 tight end in 2024 like he was as a rookie. Bellinger's receiving opportunities were limited by Waller's presence last year, but the addition of veteran blocking tight ends this offseason should allow Bellinger to be featured more as a receiver in his third season in the league. The 23-year-old former fourth-round pick in 2022 out of San Diego State has caught 55 of his 63 targets for 523 yards and two touchdowns in his two seasons with the G-Men. If Waller hangs up his cleats as things seem to be trending, Bellinger could be a decent under-the-radar TE2 target in deeper fantasy leagues this fall.
From RotoBaller
Unsurprisingly, the Jacksonville Jaguars didn't pick up the fifth-year option on new quarterback Mac Jones, who the team acquired in a trade with the New England Patriots this offseason. Jones was New England's first-round pick in 2021 but failed to make an impact as their starter under center. He went to the Pro Bowl as a rookie in 2021 but was merely a replacement player. Jones started all 42 games that he played for the Patriots, but the team went 4-13 in 2023 and Jones found himself on the bench for the final six games. The 25-year-old from Alabama regressed in each of his three seasons in Boston, but it didn't help that the Patriots were constantly bringing in new offensive coaches during his time there. Now in Jacksonville, Jones will operate as the clear backup to Trevor Lawrence in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, who was taken in this year's draft with the second overall pick, has the experience and ability to give him a chance to start immediately in his first season in 2024, according to multiple sources. "When that time comes, when he's ready, then that's when we'll do it. But there's no timeline on that," head coach Dan Quinn said. If Daniels doesn't start right away, the Commanders would go with Marcus Mariota. Both Quinn and general manager Adam Peters have said they want to rely on a strong defense and run game to reduce the burden on the rookie QB. The addition of veteran players like tight end Zach Ertz and running Austin Ekeler should lessen the need for Daniels to be the leader of the offense right away. Numerous NFL coaches think Kliff Kingsbury's offensive scheme will be good for Daniels, and while he has tons of long-term potential, Daniels will be a low-end QB2 with upside in fantasy in 2024.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants running back Eric Gray has a clear path to a bigger role in New York's backfield in his second season in the league now that Saquon Barkley is no longer in town. The Giants signed Devin Singletary to be their No. 1 back, but he's never been the top dog and there will be room for carries for other backs now that Barkley is out of the picture. The Giants haven't signed any other veterans and didn't take a RB in the draft until selecting Purdue's Tyrone Tracy in the fifth round, which is the same spot Gray was taken in 2023. The 24-year-old had 23 touches for 70 yards in 13 games as a rookie last year, but his production should go up considerably in 2024 as long as he stays healthy. Gray won't necessarily be a draft target in standard 12-team leagues, but he'll surely be a waiver-wire target if Singletary misses time with an injury.
From RotoBaller
The Buffalo Bills signed former Chicago Bears and Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Chase Claypool to an undisclosed one-year deal on Friday. Even with the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason, Claypool could face an uphill battle to crack the top three in Buffalo after the addition of rookie Keon Coleman with the first pick of the second round of this year's draft. The 25-year-old former second-rounder by the Steelers in 2020 out of Notre Dame had a career-low eight receptions on 21 targets for 77 yards and one touchdown in 12 games (two starts) with the Bears and Miami Dolphins in 2023. Claypool could connect on some deep plays down the field with quarterback Josh Allen in 2024, but unless injuries open up a starting spot for Claypool, he's a long shot for consistent fantasy production.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Chargers have signed wide receiver DJ Chark,. Dynasty Analysis: Chark brings a lot of experience to the Los Angeles receiving corps but we haven't seen much from him in terms of production since 2019. After stints in Jacksonville, Detroit, and Carolina, Chark will now join his fourth team in four years, still looking to rekindle that magic. While this is clearly a "wait and see" kind of moment for Chark, it should put him back on the map now that he's paired with Justin Herbert in a new-look Chargers offense.
Dynasty | The Steelers have declined the fifth-year option on running back Najee Harris. Dynasty Analysis: Harris will now be in a contract year in 2024 as he attempts to re-establish himself as a starting caliber running back in the NFL. He will again likely be deployed in a committee with Jaylen Warren and look to impress Pittsburgh or another team as he searches for a lucrative second NFL contract. He'll need to be more effective than he was last season to do so but he showed some flashes late in the season after the Steelers threatened to move Warren to the "1A" part of the committee. Regardless, Harris remains a hold in dynasty leagues as we see just what he may have to give now that he's in a contract year.
Dynasty | The Buffalo Bills have signed wide receiver Chase Claypool. Dynasty Analysis: Claypool flamed out in Pittsburgh and was even worse in his time with the Bears and Dolphins over the past two seasons. Still, we know he has talent and this is a pretty good development in dynasty circles, at least putting him back on the map. While he's far from a trade target, this could make him a decent waiver wire pickup in the hopes he can rekindle his career with Josh Allen and a depth chart pretty void of talent.
The Miami Dolphins are signing veteran free-agent wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. to a one-year deal worth up to $8.25 million, according to Tom Pelissero. The three-time Pro Bowler has been linked to Miami for much of the offseason, and he finally found his home for the 2024 season on Friday. While this is an exciting signing for the former superstar, fantasy football expectations should be tempered. The 31-year-old has not reached the 600-yard mark in a single season since 2019, and he will now compete with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle for targets. He's a nice depth boost for Mike McDaniel's offense, but he is nothing more than a late-round flyer in 2024 fantasy drafts. Despite playing in 14 games for the Ravens last year, he caught just 35 passes for 565 yards and three touchdowns, finishing as the WR63 in PPR leagues.
From RotoBaller
The Green Bay Packers declined the fifth-year option for cornerback Eric Stokes on Thursday, according to a source. The 29th overall pick in 2021 out of Georgia, Stokes played well in his rookie season but has battled injuries the last two years. He will now be slated for free agency next spring and can make a case for a big payday if he can stay healthy in 2024. The 25-year-old played in 16 games (14 starts) as a rookie in 2021 and had a career-high 55 tackles (43 solo), an interception and 14 passes defended. However, he's played in just 12 games (11 starts) since then and has 26 solo tackles in that time. Stokes played in just three games last season. Despite his injuries the last two years, he's expected to be a starting cornerback for Green Bay in 2024 if he's healthy.
From RotoBaller
The Tennessee Titans plan to decline the fifth-year option on cornerback Caleb Farley (back), according to a source. It was the expected move for the Titans after Farley played in just 12 games (two starts) since 2021. The former 22nd overall pick in 2021 out of Virginia Tech will now hit the free-agent market after the 2024 season. Farley missed all of the 2023 campaign due to a back injury and has a total of 14 tackles (13 solo) and one pass defended in his 12 games with the Titans in 2021 and 2022. The 25-year-old defensive back will be trying to stay on the field in 2024 with Tennessee and be productive in what is now his walk year before hitting the open market next spring.
From RotoBaller
The Los Angeles Chargers have signed free agent wide receiver DJ Chark Jr. to a one-year, $5 million contract, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Chark reportedly visited with the Chargers prior to last week's NFL Draft. He could play a key role in Los Angeles after the team parted with both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason. Right now, their current depth chart is headlined by Chark, Quentin Johnston, and Joshua Palmer, as well as up-and-coming rookies Ladd McConkey and Brenden Rice. Chark spent last season with the Carolina Panthers, catching 35 passes for 525 yards and five touchdowns over the course of 15 games. While the Chargers lack a true alpha receiver at the moment, they have plenty of raw talent at the position, which could make it difficult for Chark to carve out a role. For now, fantasy managers should monitor his performance throughout training camp before they consider selecting him in drafts later this summer.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons wide receivers Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore "will be relied on to provide more consistency" throughout the 2024 season, according to Josh Kendall of The Athletic. Notably, the Falcons are expected to deploy numerous three-receiver sets, leaving room for both Mooney and Moore to contribute alongside Drake London. Mooney, a Tulane product, tallied 2,593 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns over his first four pro seasons. His best season came in 2021 when he racked up 1,055 receiving yards and five total touchdowns. If Mooney can return to his 2021 form, he'll be the Falcons' No. 2 wide receiver and a low-end FLEX option in fantasy football. Moore also flashed potential in Arizona prior to his trade from the Cardinals to the Falcons. Over his first three pro seasons, Moore has 1,201 receiving yards, 249 rushing yards, and four touchdowns. He, too, could become a fringe fantasy WR3 in the right situation.
From RotoBaller
The Kansas City Chiefs have declined their fifth-year option on wide receiver Kadarius Toney, according to Ari Meirov of The 33rd Team. By doing so, the Chiefs will opt against bringing Toney back for $14.345 million in 2025. Instead, he'll finish out his rookie contract in Kansas City this season before hitting free agency next March. Toney had a fifth-year option due to his status as a former first-round pick. He has been a massive disappointment since the Giants selected him in the 2021 NFL Draft. Toney totaled 760 receiving yards, 119 rushing yards, and four total touchdowns through his first three seasons, and he also struggled to stay healthy, playing in just 12 games for the Giants and 20 for the Chiefs. He remains an inferior receiver to Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Xavier Worthy, leaving Toney on waivers in most redraft leagues.
From RotoBaller
