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Lineup Prep: Week 4

Wed Sep 28 9:09am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Olave is producing big numbers

It sure has been an interesting first three weeks of the season. The quarterback and running back positions have been a bust outside of a handful of players. Those positions are a lot more top heavy than usual. And the tight end spot is a mess with just a couple players producing, but that isn’t as surprising as the others. I do think things will start to even out at running back and quarterback. Don’t get too down over some of these slow starts. Remember, it is a long season with plenty of ups and downs. Sometimes having patience is as important as anything when it comes to being a good fantasy owner.

With that said, here are my random thoughts for the week. . . . .

I’m like the rest of you and have no idea what the Broncos coaching staff is doing. I mean Mike Boone started working into the rotation more at running back, playing 19 percent of the snaps. Yes, Mike Boone. This is a guy that has been in the league since 2018 and has topped 100-rushing yards in a season once. He is stealing work from Javonte Williams, one of the most talented backs in the game. So I’m still holding out hope for a Williams breakout, though. The coaching staff has to see that Williams should be on the field more. Melvin Gordon has been alright, but he isn’t on the same level as Williams right now. Let’s hope it starts this week.

Trevor Lawrence seems to have turned the corner. He has really looked good the last two games. It helps that the coaching staff is competent this year and he has some good pieces around him to work with. The more confidence he gets, the better he is going to continue to play. He is currently 10th overall in fantasy quarterback scoring. I don’t think that is a fluke. He could keep that ranking all season.

So D’Andre Swift is hurt again. I guess I shouldn’t have gotten my hopes up with him. You just see the talent on the field and want that in your lineup. The problem is he can’t seem to avoid injury at this stage of his career. Let’s just hope he gets on the field sooner than later. He can be a difference maker for fantasy teams. I will be waiting patiently for his return.

Selling high on Cordarrelle Patterson might not be a bad idea. Remember, he had a phenomenal start to his season last year before fading in the second half. The worrisome for me right now is his lack of work in the passing game, having four catches in three games. I just don’t see him cracking 100-plus rushing yards every week. He is going to need to get his reception totals up if he hopes to sustain his current production.

I think it might be time to just say Mark Andrews is the best fantasy tight end in the game right now. He finished that way last year, but Travis Kelce still had a higher ADP this year. It is early, but after three games, Andrews sits atop the rankings once again at tight end. He has 31 targets in three games and at least five catches every game. The Ravens might not throw a lot, but when they do, it normally goes to Andrews. Plus, Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP level this year, which helps Andrews even more.

You have to wonder if Baker Mayfield was the problem all along in Cleveland. That offense was a mess the last few years and struggled to connect with his top playmakers. Well, it seems to be the same in Carolina with D.J. Moore disappearing in the offense right now. And meanwhile in Cleveland, that offense is looking awfully good with Jacoby Brissett leading the way. I think Mayfield might be running out of time as a starter in the NFL.

Nick Chubb might have just four receptions for 28 yards this year, but he still is second overall in fantasy running back scoring. He has two 100-yard gams and finding the end zone on a regular basis. Maybe he will put up a Derrick Henry in his prime season, meaning he will still be a top fantasy back despite a lack of catches. It might happen with the state of the running back position right now. I would not sell high on Chubb.

News and Notes: The Chargers claimed defensive end Derrek Tuszka off waivers from the Titans. He gives the Chargers some depth at the position with Joey Bosa injured. . . . .The Chiefs released kicker Matt Ammendola, which is a pretty good sign Harrison Butker will be ready to take over the kicking duties once again.

HOT PLAYS

Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos. The usage of Williams has been baffling this year, especially last week. Melvin Gordon struggled much of the game and even fumbled twice (didn’t lose them), but got the key goal-line carries late in the game. Williams played a season low 45 percent of the snaps. Mike Boone even got in the mix somehow, playing 19 percent of the snaps. We don’t get it. But even with that said, don’t give up hope on a breakout season from Williams. He can do damage as long as he keeps getting 16 or more touches per game. If he gets that workload again this week, look for him to post big numbers against the Raiders. Las Vegas has been terrible against the run, allowing the third most fantasy points to running backs.

David Njoku, TE, Browns. Njoku broke out last eek, catching nine passes for 89 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets. This has been building, though, after three catches on five targets the previous game. Njoku is becoming a favorite target of Jacoby Brissett in an offense that is starting to gel. He should keep up his hot ways this week against the Falcons, a team that has struggled to stop opposing tight ends. Atlanta allows the second most fantasy points to tight ends and are 27th overall against the pass.

Chris Olave, WR, Saints. Olave has 13 targets each of his last two games. He had career highs in receptions (nine) and yards (147) last week. He has emerged as the top target in the passing game in a hurry. Olave is a super talented player that is going to keep getting better. His future is so bright. Olave should keep his hot ways going this week against a Vikings team that allows 275.7-passing yards per game.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers. Rodgers is starting to heat up. He has multiple touchdowns two straight games and seems to be getting on the same page with his receivers once again. It seemed like just a matter of time before Rodgers got going. We would expect him to maybe have his best game of the season this week. Remember, he played well last week against a really good Bucs defense. He gets the Patriots this week, a team that allows the seventh most fantasy points to quarterbacks. New England has allowed six passing touchdowns this season.

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. The addition of Jimmy Garoppolo to the lineup was a positive for Aiyuk, scoring his first touchdown of the season last week. He was targeted eight times, giving him eight targets each of his last two games. He has eight receptions during that stretch and seems to be hitting his stride after a disappointing Week 1. Look for him to rack up the targets this week against the Rams, a team that has allowed the second most fantasy points to receivers. Aiyuk had a 100-yard game against the Rams last week, getting six receptions for 107 yards in Week 18.

COLD PLAYS

Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams. Stafford is off to a slow start to his season. He has fewer than 14 fantasy points two of three games. He is yet to have a 300-yard game and one or no scores two of three. He actually has more interceptions (five) than touchdowns (four) on the season. Even though he plays in an explosive offense, he is a little hard to trust right now, especially this week against the 49ers. San Francisco allows the second fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and are first overall against the pass, allowing 148.3-passing yards per game. If you have better options, go with them.

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Broncos. Jeudy was able to play this week despite dealing with a couple different injuries. He didn’t do much, though, catching two passes for 17 yards despite playing 59 percent of the snaps. Jeudy had a big Week 1 but done nothing outside of that. And Courtland Sutton is dominating the targets from Russell Wilson right now, which doesn’t bode well for Jeudy. He probably isn’t worth using right now. Plus, he has a tough matchup against the Raiders, a team that can’t stop the run but does pretty well against the pass. Las Vegas allows the eighth fewest fantasy points to receivers.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Chiefs. Edwards-Helaire did score a touchdown last week, but ran seven times for no yards. The only thing that saved his fantasy day was the score and his five receptions. His yardage total was terrible. Edwards-Helaire is fourth in running back scoring right now, but that can’t sustain at his current pace. His season high in touches is just 12 and he averages 11.3 touches per game. He isn’t getting enough work to be an elite fantasy back. Don’t be surprised if he is held out of the end zone this week, playing a great Bucs defense. Tampa allows the fewest fantasy points to running backs and have yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season.

D.J. Chark, WR, Lions. Chark is shaping up to be a boom or bust play for fantasy teams. He has been bust two straight games, though. He has three catches his last two games after scoring 15.2 fantasy points in Week 1. He is going to be a hard player to trust in an offense that has a lot of competition for targets. Chark has value in the right matchup, but Week 4 might not be a time to use him. Seattle can’t stop the run, but do alright against the pass. Seattle allows the third fewest fantasy points to receivers and given up just three passing touchdowns all season.

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ravens. Dobbins returned from his torn ACL last week and played 43 percent of the snaps. The good news is he looked healthy and got some work. The bad news is he played fewer snaps than Justice Hill and didn’t do much with his chances. Dobbins had seven carries for 23 yards. We do think Dobbins will be a fantasy factor before the year is out, but he is going to be eased into action. Until he gets a big workload and starts producing on the field, we think it is best to leave Dobbins on fantasy benches. And this makes even more sense this week against a very good Bills defense. Buffalo allows the fourth fewest fantasy points to running backs and are second overall against the run, allowing just 57.7-rushing yards per game.

SLEEPERS

Craig Reynolds, RB, Lions. Reynolds is set to serve as the top backup for the Lions the next few weeks with D’Andre Swift expected out. This gives Reynolds some good value in an offense that likes to rotate backs. The top backup for the Lions has played at 33 percent of the snaps the first three games. Reynolds showed well during the preseason, earning a roster spot with the team. He has some upside if getting the touches. He should get double-digit touches this week against the Seahawks, a team that allows the sixth most fantasy points to running backs. Seattle is 31st overall against the run, allowing 157-rushing yards per game.

Isaiah McKenzie, WR, Bills. McKenzie had his best game of the season last week and has touchdown two of three games. He had season highs in receptions (seven) and yards (76) last week and that was even a game that Gabe Davis returned to the lineup. It is clear that McKenzie is here to stay in a good Bills passing game. He will keep getting the targets. And he is a solid play this week against a bad Ravens pass defense. Baltimore is dead last against the pass and allows the most fantasy points to receivers.

Geno Smith, QB, Seahawks. Smith has been a pleasant surprise for the Seahawks. He is completing passes at a high level and making good decisions. He has at least 19 fantasy points two of three games. The Seahawks told him to take more chances last week and he did, leading to his best numbers of the season. Smith was 32-of-44 for 325 yards and two touchdowns with an interception. He could post similar numbers this week against the Lions. Detroit allows the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks and allow a league high 31 points per game.

Alec Pierce, WR, Colts. Pierce had his best game as a pro last week, catching three passes for 61 yards on five targets. And the kicker is he played just 45 percent of the snaps, so he was targeted often when on the field. His play likely earned him more playing time and targets going forward. And with Michael Pittman drawing so much attention in coverage, this might bode well for Pierce to get more looks. He might be worth a shot this week against the Titans, a team that allows the fifth most fantasy points to receivers. Tennessee has allowed eight passing touchdowns this year. Don’t be surprised if Pierce scores his first NFL touchdown in Week 4.

Cooper Rush, QB, Cowboys. Rush has been a pleasant surprise for the Cowboys, showing well as the starter while Dak Prescott is out. He led his team to a road victory against a division rival last week. And he did it against a pretty good pass defense, going 21-of-31 for 215 yards and a touchdown without a turnover. He hasn’t really had a favorable matchup, but that changes this week, getting the Commanders. Washington allows the fifth most fantasy points to quarterbacks and rank 28th overall against the pass, allowing 274-passing yards per game.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Seahawks/Lions, Jaguars/Eagles, Bills/Ravens, Chiefs/Bucs

Low Scoring Games: Titans/Colts, Bears/Giants, Jets/Steelers.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 4

The Paur Report