Fri Aug 19 10:58am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Kupp won a lot of leagues in 2021
We like to revisit the past to help us in the future, so here is a look at some interesting Best Ball Championship data from our site. This is our big best ball contest, that gives out a $25,000 grand prize. For this year, the contest is about sold out (90 percent), so if you still want to get in it, sign up now (click here). So use the data below to help you build that winning team come draft day.
BBC 2021 Winners Draft Slot | |
Draft Position | % Won |
7 | 14.1% |
6 | 12.4% |
8 | 11.9% |
9 | 11.8% |
10 | 10.1% |
4 | 9.5% |
5 | 9.5% |
3 | 8.2% |
2 | 7.1% |
1 | 5.2% |
TAKEAWAYS: Christian McCaffrey was the first overall pick in nearly all drafts last year, so his injury-plagued season was a disaster for many of those owners. And these numbers clearly show that with just 5.2 percent of owners that drafted first overall won their leagues. It was not a good season to be picking first overall. . . .Normally, drafting right in the middle is not an optimal spot for fantasy owners. It can be a tricky position to be picking come draft day. Well, the owners picking near the middle had a lot of success last year. The seventh spot saw 14.1 percent of owners win it all and the sixth position had 12.4 percent of the winners. If you look at the players that were drafted around that area last year, they were Aaron Jones, Davante Adams and Jonathan Taylor. . . . .The big takeaways from the draft slot data is you can win from anywhere. The first through third draft slots were not great last year, but still had plenty of winners. But after those three spots, the last seven saw at least 9.5 percent of the winners. It was pretty even after that. You can build a championship roster no matter where you pick.
BBC 2021 Winners Roster Build | |
Position | # Drafted |
QB | 3.0 |
RB | 6.6 |
WR | 7.5 |
TE | 2.9 |
K | 2.0 |
DEF | 2.0 |
BBC 2021 Non-Winners Roster Build | |
Position | # Drafted |
QB | 3.1 |
RB | 6.6 |
WR | 7.6 |
TE | 2.9 |
K | 1.9 |
DEF | 2.0 |
TAKEAWAYS: There is nothing earth shattering here with this data. The big thing is both winning and non-winning teams drafted nearly identical rosters. There was next to no difference between the two roster builds. The most interesting aspect was seeing how teams handled the kicker and defense positions. That is really the only big debate when it comes to roster build for best ball leagues. Should you take two kickers and defenses come draft? It seems most think this is the way to go, not missing out on points any given week. It seems pretty logical, making sure you don’t get a zero at any position any given week.
BBC 2021 Players on Most Winning Rosters | % Owned | |
1. | Cooper Kupp | 28.5% |
2. | Jonathan Taylor | 21.4% |
3. | Deebo Samuel | 18.6% |
4. | Mark Andrews | 18.2% |
5. | JaMarr Chase | 17.2% |
6. | Austin Ekeler | 17.1% |
7. | Leonard Fournette | 16.7% |
8. | Mike Williams | 15.2% |
9. | Najee Harris | 15.1% |
10. | Joe Mixon | 14.7% |
11. | Justin Herbert | 14.6% |
James Connor | ||
13. | Tom Brady | 14.4% |
14. | Joe Burrow | 14.2% |
15. | Justin Jefferson | 14.1% |
16. | Keenan Allen | 13.9% |
17. | George Kittle | 13.8% |
18. | D’Andre Swift | 13.6% |
19. | Rob Gronkowski | 13.5% |
20. | Damien Harris | 13.4% |
Jaylen Waddle |
TAKEAWAYS: Cooper Kupp was clearly the most owned player on championship rosters. This is not a surprise at all as he had one of the greatest fantasy seasons ever and was around the WR19 on draft day last year. This is unbelievable value for a fantasy player. . . . .Jonathan Taylor was not far behind Kupp as he led the way at running back last year. He was the top scoring back and a guy selected near the end of the first round (ADP was nine). Just like Kupp, he had a huge year and was on a ton of fantasy winning teams. . . . So you didn’t have to have Kupp or Taylor on your roster last year, but if you had them, it made a big difference. Just 54 percent of championship teams did not own either Kupp or Taylor. So nearly half of the winners had a share of Kupp or Taylor. That is a pretty remarkable number and shows how big of difference makers both those players were last year. And there were 4.6 percent of teams that had both Kupp and Taylor. Those teams had to dominate last year. Kupp and Taylor won a lot of leagues for owners in 2021. . . . .There are just three quarterbacks on this list and the top scoring quarterback (Josh Allen) didn’t make the cut. This is an interesting note, showing you can win with a variety of quarterbacks on your roster. The most owned quarterback was Justin Herbert at 14.6 percent and he was about the eighth quarterback off the board come draft day. Tom Brady and Joe Burrow also were on the list and not one of the higher drafted quarterbacks. Brady was the QB9 and Burrow was the QB13. If anything, this data shows that the teams that waited on a quarterback last year had more success. This could be something to keep in mind when draft this year. . . . .Mark Andrews was the most owned tight end on this list, coming in at 18.2 percent. He was another decent value, being the TE5 on the ADP list. Andrews was first overall in fantasy tight end scoring. George Kittle and Rob Gronkowski were other tight ends to crack the top 20 most owned by championship teams. Kittle was a high draft pick but Gronk was the TE10, so he was on a lot of teams that waited to draft a tight end. Andrews and Kittle show that teams going early on tight end can pay off come draft day.
There is always a lot debate when to take certain positions, so we thought we would look a little more closely at that, mainly the quarterback, tight end and defensive slots. The average winning team picked a quarterback in Round 6, pick three. That means they didn’t go for one of the elite options like Patrick Mahomes, Allen or Kyler Murray. The winning teams waited a little longer, getting second tier guys likes Justin Herbert, Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford. And as you remember with the most owned data, none of the early drafted quarterbacks made that list, so this data makes even more sense. Waiting a little longer on a quarterback was the right strategy come draft day.
The tight end spot had a very similar draft spot for the winning teams. The average first pick of winning teams for tight ends was Round 6, pick four, just one spot after the winning quarterback slot. This is pretty amazing. It seems a similar strategy worked for a lot of championship teams. Spending early draft capital on Travis Kelce and Darren Waller didn’t pay off for a lot of teams last year. You also have to keep in mind that in this best ball format, a lot of owners take three quarterbacks and tight ends, which is another reason you see many owners wait on these positions. The thinking is at least one of the three will hit each week, helping maximize points for the position while not spending high draft picks on those players. This seems to be a good winning strategy for both positions.
Lastly, we wanted to look at defenses to see if going early on one makes sense. Well, this data shows it really doesn’t. The average first pick of a defense by winning teams was Round 17, pick seven. There is not a huge difference in scoring between the top rated and 10th rated defense, so many owners just wait on the position. Plus, most owners draft two defenses, giving their teams a decent chance of points each week as the best score is inserted into their lineup. It makes sense to wait on the position, take two and hope for the best each week.
In closing, it is always good to look at past data to come up with a good game plan for the next season. The aforementioned information should really help you formulate a winning strategy for this coming season. Things do change from year-to-year, but there are always good takeaways from every season. Last year was no different. Put it to use and go win your best ball league!
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
It's no secret that the Buffalo Bills need to add some wide receivers in this year's NFL draft after trading Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans and losing Gabe Davis in free agency this offseason. At No. 28 overall in the first round of Thursday night's draft, the Bills would seem to be set to take a pass-catcher. However, NFL Network's Tom Pelissero thinks the draft class' depth at the receiver position could lead the Bills to wait perhaps until the second round to take a receiver, potentially adding a defensive player in the first round instead. As Buffalo's depth chart stands right now, their top three receivers are Khalil Shakir, Justin Shorter and veteran Curtis Samuel. Even if the team adds a few wideouts in this year's draft, tight end Dalton Kincaid could be Buffalo's leading receiver in 2024.
From RotoBaller
The Los Angeles Rams, who haven't picked in the first round since 2016, are calling up to try to get into the top 10 of the first round of this year's NFL draft on Thursday evening, according to sources. The Rams currently sit at pick No. 19, so it would take a lot to pull off a move into the top 10 this year. It's unclear who they might be eyeing if they were to pull it off, but the best bet would be to select Georgia pass-catching tight end Brock Bowers, who has been projected to go at 10th overall to the New York Jets in a lot of mock drafts. The Rams have also been rumored to be looking for a successor to aging quarterback Matthew Stafford, but it's unlikely they pull off a move all the way into the top five to take one of the high-end signal-callers in this year's draft. A defensive tackle is also on their draft wish list.
From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos are a contender to select a quarterback and potentially make a move in the first round of Thursday night's NFL draft, even after trading for quarterback Zach Wilson earlier this week. Denver sits at No. 12 overall, but NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reiterated that he thinks the Broncos could trade down within the first round. They likely don't have enough draft capital to move into the top-four picks to take a high-end QB, so instead, they could move down to take a pass-rusher or even Oregon QB Bo Nix. The Broncos have been linked to Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy as well, but McCarthy's draft stock has been soaring in the lead-up to the draft, which means the Broncos would likely have to trade into the top five to get him. As of right now, Wilson is set to compete with Jarrett Stidham for the starting job under center in 2024.
From RotoBaller
The New York Giants have been trying to trade up to No. 3 overall with the New England Patriots in the first round of Thursday night's NFL draft, with the belief being that they want to select North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye, according to multiple league sources. The prevailing thought is that it's a long shot to happen, though, but the Patriots are listening to all calls. The Giants and Vikings appear to be the most aggressive teams that are trying to trade into the top five in order to take a QB of the future in this year's draft. The Patriots have been open to trading down, but so far they've reportedly not received any serious enough offers, and they are also looking for a QB of their own after trading away Mac Jones this offseason. Most pundits are expecting New England to stand pat and take Maye if LSU's Jayden Daniels goes to the Commanders at No. 2.
From RotoBaller
The Washington Commanders are declining the fifth-year contract option of linebacker Jamin Davis, according to a source. It's been heading this way for on and off-field reasons. The plan in 2024 is to have the athletically gifted Davis become a "hybrid" defender, which should translate to less pass coverage and more attempts to rush the quarterback. Davis played his rookie season in 2021 at Mike linebacker before moving to the off-ball role in the team's 4-2-5 base defense. According to Pro Football Focus, he tied for the highest yards per catch allowed (12.1) last year and ranked fourth-worst in average depth of target (5.5) because of his limited coverage instincts. The 25-year-old former 19th overall pick out of Kentucky has just seven sacks in his three seasons, but he could be more productive in that category if he's rushing the passer more in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Bengals are picking up the fifth year option on the contract of Ja'Marr Chase. Dynasty Analysis: Consider this a placeholder as Cincinnati now needs to prepare to make Chase the highest paid receiver in the league. Amon-Ra St. Brown has set the market with a four-year, $120 million extension ($77 million guaranteed), so the Bengals are going to need to assemble a few armored cars here soon. Chase and Justin Jefferson should both be set to sign historic deals and while the option being picked up buys the Bengals one more season, dynasty managers shouldn't worry about him hitting free agency any time soon. Chase remains a bona fide candidate for the top overall selection in dynasty leagues.
When asked by Rich Eisen if he has any idea on where he's going to end up in this week's NFL draft, Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy hinted at the New York Giants, who currently own the No. 6 overall pick in the first round on Thursday night. "I have somewhat of an Idea, New York, #Giants, I've spent the most time with. They're a phenomenal staff," McCarthy said. The young QB's stock has been rising rapidly ever since his pro-day workout. Reports suggest the Giants and Vikings could be in a raise to trade up to select McCarthy, who is attractive because of his experience running a pro-style offense in college. With Daniel Jones (knee) coming off a torn ACL and with no guaranteed money owed to him beyond 2024, the G-Men have done their due diligence on QBs in this year's draft and feel like a lock to take one at some point this week.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos' connections to Oregon quarterback Bo Nix have persisted with the 2024 NFL draft just a day away on Thursday night. Nix is a player that teams could wait on until the second round, but the Broncos don't have a current second-round pick this year and are slated to select in the first round at No. 12. Their acquisition of former first-rounder Zach Wilson adds another layer to their QB situation heading into Thursday evening. The Broncos have done their homework on the QB draft class -- they hosted Washington's Michael Penix Jr. on a top-30 visit and watched Michigan's J.J. McCarthy work out -- and have discussed a potential trade up in the first round. However, they have plenty of other needs and have also talked about trading down. Right now, Jarrett Stidham and Wilson are slated to compete for the starting job in training camp.
From RotoBaller
The Las Vegas Raiders are thought to be high on Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr., and if the QB market starts drying up quickly in the first round of Thursday night's NFL draft and they feel the need to trade up in order to avoid being shut out, the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 5 and the Tennessee Titans at No. 7 are two teams that people think are willing to trade down. The Raiders would love to be able to get up high enough to take LSU's Jayden Daniels to reunite him with head coach Antonio Pierce, but they know they might not be able to do that. The Raiders have talked with the Arizona Cardinals about what it would take to trade up to No. 4, but Vegas' interest in that pick would likely cool off significantly if Daniels is among the top three picks, as expected.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots ownership seems to have a strong preference to come out of the first round of this year's NFL draft with a quarterback, so moving back to, say, No. 11 with the Minnesota Vikings or No. 13 with the Las Vegas Raiders might be too far of a drop for the team to still ensure their ability to do that. But if they move back only three spots to No. 6 in a trade with the New York Giants, they could still be in position to pick a QB in the first round and add multiple extra premium picks. The Patriots gathered information on Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. in the pre-draft process in case they decide to trade down. The Pats appear to be high on him, but ESPN's Dan Graziano doesn't think he'll be in consideration if they stay at No. 3. Most pundits believe New England will take North Carolina's Drake Maye if they stick in the third spot.
From RotoBaller
The Athletic's Jeff Howe predicts that New York Giants will trade the sixth overall pick in this year's NFL draft and a 2025 second-round pick to the Arizona Cardinals in order to move up to fourth overall to take Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy on Thursday night. Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort is eager to trade down for a second straight year. If LSU's Jayden Daniels or North Carolina's Drake Maye remain available at No. 4, the Minnesota Vikings or Las Vegas Raiders would probably become more aggressive in pursuing the fourth overall pick. "I think there's going to be a race to McCarthy between the Giants and Vikings," a coach said. McCarthy doesn't have the upside that the top three QBs in this class do, but rival executives cited concerns with Giants current QB Daniel Jones' (knee) health after tearing his ACL and dealing with a neck injury in 2023.
From RotoBaller
The Athletic's Jeff Howe thinks No. 3 to the New England Patriots in Thursday night's NFL draft feels like the spot for North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye, although a couple executives made a case for Michigan's J.J. McCarthy. Maye has prototypical size, arm strength and athletic ability, but there's genuine concern about his inconsistencies in 2023, and his tape shed light on some erratic throws and tendencies. He has a reputation as a high-character person with great leadership abilities. Maye would be the more traditional pick at No. 3 to the Pats, with McCarthy being viewed as more of a surprise. If Maye is still available at No. 3, one executive thinks the Minnesota Vikings "would move heaven and Earth" to try and move up to draft him. If Maye lands in New England, he could sit and learn behind veteran Jacoby Brissett in 2024.
From RotoBaller
The Dallas Cowboys officially picked up hybrid defensive end Micah Parsons' fifth-year option for the 2025 season on Wednesday, according to a person familiar with the move. Parsons' salary is worth $21.32 million as a defensive end, which is the position at which he played the majority of his snaps in 2023. The 24-year-old former 12th overall pick in 2021 out of Penn State has been a beast rushing the passer so far in his first three NFL seasons. He's made the Pro Bowl in all three seasons and has a total of 213 tackles (142 solo), 40.5 sacks, 51 tackles for loss, 89 QB hits, eight passes defended, seven forced fumbles and four fumble recoveries (one returned for a touchdown) in 50 regular-season starts. Parsons had 64 tackles and a career-high 14 sacks in 2023 and will once again be a highly coveted pass-rusher in IDP fantasy formats this fall.
From RotoBaller
Word around the league is that the Washington Commanders have advocates in their building for both LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels and North Carolina QB Drake Maye. However, almost everyone polled for The Athletic's story believed Daniels was destined for Washington with new general manager Adam Peters hot for Daniels. The belief from rival teams is that the Commanders had been leaning toward Maye much earlier in the pre-draft process, but Daniels has done enough to lock himself into the No. 2 pick. One executive from a team outside of the top 10 wouldn't rule out a brief Daniels slide, perhaps down to No. 4. Still, it's highly unlikely Daniels drops out of the top five. If he goes to D.C., he'll be favored to start from Day 1 in his rookie season.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers linebacker Shaq Thompson (leg), offensive guard Austin Corbett (knee), pass-rusher Jadeveon Clowney and running back Tarik Cohen (Achilles) have all been taking part in drills during voluntary offseason workouts this week. Meanwhile, offensive guard Chandler Zavala (knee) and linebackers D.J. Wonnum (quadriceps) Amare Barno (knee) weren't participating in drills. Thompson, who suffered a fractured fibula in Week 2 last year against the New Orleans Saints, is the most notable name of this group. The 30-year-old should be ready to go for training camp and the preseason later this year as long as he doesn't suffer a setback before then. The former 25th overall pick in 2015 out of Washington recorded 100-plus combined tackles in each of his previous four seasons with Carolina before getting hurt in 2023.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals three-time Pro Bowl defensive end Trey Hendrickson has requested to be traded from the Bengals, according to a league source. Hendrickson is due to make $15 million in 2024 and is looking for more long-term security than the Bengals have been willing to offer. It remains to be seen if the 29-year-old's wish will be granted with the first round of the 2024 NFL draft coming on Thursday evening. The former third-round pick of the New Orleans Saints in 2017 out of Florida Atlantic has made the Pro Bowl in each of the last three seasons with the Bengals. In 17 starts in 2023, he had a career-high 43 tackles (28 solo), a career-high 17.5 sacks, 16 tackles for loss, 25 QB hits and three forced fumbles. Even if he heads to a new team for 2024, Hendrickson should still be in play as a weekly starting defensive lineman in IDP fantasy leagues.
From RotoBaller
The Dallas Cowboys are currently meeting with free-agent running back Ezekiel Elliott's representatives around the facility on Wednesday, a day before the start of the 2024 NFL draft, according to a source. There has been mutual interest from both sides in a reunion this offseason as the Cowboys look to bolster their running back position after losing Tony Pollard in free agency. As of right now, Dallas' RB room consists of Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn, Malik Davis, Royce Freeman and Snoop Conner. The 28-year-old Elliott had 184 carries for 642 yards (career-low 3.5 yards per carry) and three touchdowns while adding 51 catches for 313 yards and another two scores through the air in 17 games for the New England Patriots in 2023. At this point in his career, Zeke needs volume to be fantasy relevant, and that probably won't happen if he returns to Dallas.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent RB Ezekiel Elliott's (Patriots) representative is meeting with the Dallas Cowboys Wednesday, April 24, according to a source.
Fantasy Spin: The Cowboys do not have a clear starter at running back, so Elliott probably would have a big role if he decided to return to the Cowboys. Fantasy players can monitor the situation because Elliott could be at least a flex option if he starts in 2024.
From TheHuddle
Free-agent DE Dawuane Smoot (Jaguars) recently met with the Houston Texans.
From TheHuddle
The Los Angeles Chargers are set to undergo a rebuilding phase following the hiring of head coach Jim Harbaugh and the departures of longtime offensive weapons Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams. L.A. has been rumored to be a top landing spot for Ohio State wideout Marvin Harrison or LSU wideout Malik Nabers, but Jordan Schultz of Bleacher Report suggests they are likely to pick an offensive tackle if they stay at pick No. 5. Notre Dame's Joe Alt is expected to be the first player at the position off the board. Alt has been mocked to the Tennessee Titans at pick No. 7 for much of the offseason, so the Chargers picking the 2023 first-team All-American would shake things up drastically. The Chargers have a lot of options with teams potentially trying to move up for a quarterback, so they are one of the key teams to monitor in the first round on Thursday.
From RotoBaller