Lineup Prep: Divisional Round Games
Wed Jan 18 8:43am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Kelce should get plenty of targets
And then there were eight. Yes, eight teams left for a right to go to the Super Bowl. It should be a great weekend of action. I think all the games should be very competitive and could go either way. I really mean that. The Giants are big underdogs but just keep getting better each week. And Daniel Jones is playing some great football. So needless to say, I’m really looking forward to the action this week. It should be great!
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .
If I’m an NFL team, I’m not sure I pursue Tom Brady. I just don’t know how much he has left in the tank. The only scenario that makes sense to be is if I draft a quarterback I don’t trust as a rookie. You hate to count him out, but I’m just not sure he is going to be a difference maker at this stage of his career. He just misses on some throws he normally makes and will be another year older next season.
I can’t see how the Chargers bring back Brandon Staley as head coach. That teams has too much talent to disappoint like they have this year. That offense needs a big-time spark, wasting some elite talent on that side of the ball. And Staley playing his starters in a meaningless game at the end of the year made no sense. It cost him with Mike Williams getting hurt. And then he blows a game in the playoffs he was up by 27 points. It sounds like the Chargers will bring him back, though, which is not good news for that team in my view.
You have to wonder what the Cowboys are going to do at kicker after Brett Maher missed four extra points last week. That has to be a huge concern for them. Every point matters so much in the playoffs. A missed extra point could be the difference between moving on or going home. I can’t see the team having much faith in him after that display last week. It is tough to make a change at this point, though, especially with Maher kicking so well during the regular season.
So the big question this offseason is where does Lamar Jackson land. He is not coming back to the Ravens. That much I do know. I like the Jets as a fit. A young, up and coming team that sorely needs a franchise quarterback. He would have a lot of talent to work with offensively and could be a good fit there. I actually like the Falcons too as a landing spot. They have a strong running game and solid offensive line. Plus, it would be great seeing Jackson throw passes to Kyle Pitts. It should be an interesting offseason regarding Jackson. The good news is you can expect him to get moved before the draft, so we should know sooner than later.
That was quite the performance from Trevor Lawrence last week. He showed me a lot, coming back from his four interceptions. He could have folded and quit after the start to his game. That didn’t happen. He kept plugging along and adjusted to his first-half mistakes. Lawrence just keeps impressing me on a weekly basis. He is going to be a good one for years to come.
I’m anxious to see how Brock Purdy responds when he is called on in a close game. The stage hasn’t been too big for him to start his career, but it is going to just keep getting bigger for him as his team advances in the playoffs. He has answered every question to date, which has been impressive. How will he do if asked to complete a game-winning drive at the end of a game? It will be fun to watch.
News and Notes: The Titans hired 49ers director of pro personnel Ran Carthon as their new general manager. Carthon comes from a great organization and could be a great get for the Titans organization. . . . .Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has informed interested teams that he's staying in Detroit in 2023. This is great news for the Lions offense, keeping Johnson in the fold for next season.
HOT PLAYS
Christian Kirk, WR, Jaguars. Kirk had a great showing in the Jaguars playoff opener, scoring 21.8 fantasy points. He has 21-plus points two straight games. He has been great as the top target in the Jaguars passing game. Expect more of the same this week against Kansas City. Kirk had nine receptions for 105 yards and two touchdowns against the Chiefs in Week 10. The Chiefs allow the eighth most fantasy points to receivers.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce is a must start every week, but look for the Chiefs to lean on him even more in the playoffs. Kelce has not scored touchdown since Week 12, but has four games with double-digit fantasy points during the stretch. He gets his weekly chances. Kelce had six catches for 81 yards and a touchdown against this same Jaguars team earlier this season. The Jaguars also have struggled to stop the tight end this year, allowing the seventh most fantasy points to tight ends.
Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles. Sanders had his best season to date this year. He topped 1,200-rushing yards and scored 11 touchdowns in the Eagles explosive offense. He has enjoyed some huge games, including one against the Giants in Week 14. He ran 17 times for a season-high 144 yards and two scores in that game. He could get a big workload again this week against a Giants team that ranks 27th overall against the run.
COLD PLAYS
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. Elliott is becoming a touchdown dependent fantasy play. He just isn’t doing much outside of finding the end zone. He has fewer than 40-rushing yards his last three games. He has run 21 times for just 37 yards his last two. We just aren’t sure he is worth the risk right now for fantasy teams. The 49ers also have been great against the run this year, ranking first overall in fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs. The 49ers are second overall against the run, allowing 77.7-rushing yards per game.
Isaiah Hodgins, WR, Giants. Hodgins had his best game of the season last week, catching eight passes for 105 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. He has been a big surprise down the stretch for the Giants, emerging as a top threat in the passing game opposite Richie Jams. But even with that said, he has just two games all season with more than 50 yards. He has been mediocre more than outstanding. And a matchup against a great Eagles secondary is not a good one for him. Philadelphia is first overall against the pass, allowing just 179.8-passing yards per game.
Gabriel Davis, WR, Bills. Davis has been up and down all season, frustrating fantasy owners. He was up last week, catching six passes for 113 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. It was a great showing for Davis. You just never know what you are going to get with him, though. He has a really tough matchup against a rapidly improving Bengals defense, a secondary that allows the sixth fewest fantasy points to receivers. It might be a down game for Davis this week.
SLEEPERS
Hayden Hurst, TE, Bengals. Hurst hasn’t been off the charts this year, but pretty consistent for the Bengals. He has at least four receptions nine times. And he has been pretty involved in the offense since coming back from injury two weeks back. He has 11 targets his last two games and caught four passes each of those games. The Bills might focus on shutting down the high-powered receivers in the Bengals offense, giving Hurst a few more favorable looks. He might be a sneaky play for fantasy teams in this one.
Elijah Mitchell, RB, 49ers. Mitchell returned to action late in the year and has found the end zone each of the last two games he has played. He had just 27 total yards last week but had 11 touches in the game. The 49ers are getting him the ball, so expect more of the same for a team that likes to get multiple backs involved offensively. Plus, he gets a Cowboys team this week that has allowed some big rushing games this season. Dallas has allowed 150-plus rushing yards six times, including 200-plus yards twice. Mitchell could really do some damage with double-digit touches this week.
Cole Beasley, WR, Bills. Beasley had a season-high five targets last week for the Bills. He had two catches for 35 yards and his first touchdown of the season. He has a familiarity with Josh Allen and this offense, so he is worth a dart throw for fantasy teams in what could be a high-scoring game. It would not surprise to see Beasley find the end zone once again.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Jaguars/Chiefs, Bengals/Bills, Giants/Eagles.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
- Bengals QB Joe Burrow resumes throwing at offseason workouts
- WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling visiting Chargers
- Raiders sign free agent WR Jalen Guyton
- Panthers to sign RB Rashaad Penny
- Pats waive Nathan Rourke, down to four QBs
- RB Duke Johnson retires from NFL after 8 seasons
- Former Bears QB Bob Avellini dies at age 70
- J.J. Watt leaves door open (slightly) for potential return to Texans
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- Michael Irvin out at NFL Network
- Bills sign Chase Claypool, Deion Jones, Dawuane Smoot
- Dolphins, Odell Beckham Jr. agree to 1-year deal
- Chargers add wide receiver DJ Chark
- Chiefs decline WR Kadarius Toney's 2025 option
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- Ravens sign 5 draft picks, including first-rounder Nate Wiggins
- Steelers decline RB Najee Harris' fifth-year option
- Colts guarantee edge rusher Kwity Paye $13.4M, pick up 2025 option
- Fantasy Six Pack: Dynasty Football Mock Draft Review: Post-NFL Draft
- Fantasy Six Pack: IDP Expert Rookie Mock Draft – Post-NFL Draft
- Fantasy Six Pack: Dynasty Football Rookie TE Landing Spots
- Fantasy Six Pack: Dynasty Football Rookie WR Landing Spots
The Paur Report
Dynasty | The Carolina Panthers are signing running back Rashaad Penny. Dynasty Analysis: Penny is going to compete with rookie Jonathon Brooks, Chuba Hubbard, Miles Sanders and Raheem Blackshear for a roster spot this Summer as nothing here should be looked at as guaranteed. Penny has had his moments in the league, including a stretch in Seattle where he was the best fantasy football player in the world for about a month. Unfortunately, injuries have always held him back and he wasn't really even able to sniff the field last year in Philadelphia. Penny's value has dropped all the way down to "watch list," but he'd certainly be roster worthy should he make the team this Fall.
Dynasty | The Las Vegas Raiders have signed veteran wide receiver Jalen Guyton. Dynasty Analysis: The long-time Charger has had his moments over his five-year career but never really put things together consistently in Los Angeles. He'll compete with the likes of Tre Tucker and DJ Turner for a roster spot but he looks buried behind Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and the newly signed Michael Gallup. As the Stormtroopers would say, "Move along."
The New England Patriots informed quarterback Nathan Rourke that he is being waived on Monday, according to sources. The move thins the team's quarterback room to four -- veteran Jacoby Brissett, rookie third overall pick Drake Maye, Bailey Zappe and rookie Joe Milton III. The move shouldn't come as a surprise after the Patriots selected two quarterbacks in this year's NFL draft. The 25-year-old Rourke has never appeared in an NFL game, although he did make 11 starts in 2021 and 2022 with the BC Lions of the Canadian Football League. Rourke will now look for another opportunity elsewhere as a depth option at the position with another NFL team.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (wrist) got glowing reviews while throwing at Monday's offseason workout. Burrow has been throwing during the offseason as he recovers from his injured right wrist, but Monday was the first day of Phase 2 of the team's offseason program. "He didn't miss a beat. Whatever he did in the offseason worked," receiver Kwamie Lassiter said. Burrow went through everything new QBs coach Brad Kragthorpe asked of him during the one-hour workout, which included footwork drills around obstacles. "I think he looked as quick and as athletic as I've seen him look," Kragthorpe said. "He looked like the Joe Burrow we're used to seeing. I didn't see any difference. I thought the ball came out of his hand well. Confidently. I'm happy where he's at."
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans wide receiver Tank Dell (leg) continues to recover from a gunshot wound sustained nearly a week ago. The 24-year-old, who was an innocent bystander during the shooting, still has some hurdles to clear, especially after also sustaining a fractured Fibula at the end of last season. However, he's expected to be cleared before training camp, although his status for Week 1 remains uncertain. Yet, if things continue to move positively, there's a good chance he'll be out there when the Texans begin their season. Dell finished the 2023-24 campaign by amassing 709 yards and seven touchdowns off 47 receptions. While fantasy managers are concerned about the injury and the potential for a decrease in production after the team added Stefon Diggs, Dell could still find himself surpassing the 1,000-yard receiving mark in the Texans' high-powered offense.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson (shoulder) has had well-documented struggles since being traded from the Houston Texans ahead of the 2022 season. He's appeared in just 12 games over the last two years, completing just under 60% of his passes for 2,217 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. Those stats are far from his days of MVP contention with Houston, but Browns general manager Andrew Berry remains confident. "Obviously, he's been rehabbing the shoulder injury, but he is well on his way there and in a really strong spot," Berry said. "We do expect to hit the ground running on that side of the ball, and I know he is very excited about returning to the playing field and getting over this injury. We have high expectations for him and the offense this season."Watson missed Week 4, 6, and 8 last season and played just a handful of snaps in Week 7 before returning in Week 9. He was then placed on season-ending Injured Reserve ahead of Week 11. A combination of poor play and injuries has put a bleak outlook on his career, and 2024 could be his last chance to prove he belongs as a starter in Cleveland. All that said, backup quarterback Jameis Winston is an intriguing stash option in Superflex and dynasty leagues.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White saw 75.3% of the team's running back carries and targets in 2023, but running back coach Skip Peete said there will be more competition for touches this season. Tampa Bay selected Oregon running back Bucky Irving in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft, while Chase Edmonds and 2023 undrafted free agent Sean Tucker remain on the roster. Ultimately, none of the running backs behind White are expensive investments for the organization, and it's always tricky to know whether a coach is being transparent or just trying to motivate the players in his position room. White was the RB4 overall (PPR) last season behind 990 rushing yards, 549 receiving yards, and nine total touchdowns. Although he could see his rushing volume take a hit, his receiving skill set that he's flashed since his collegiate career at Arizona State should keep him on the field for high-yield fantasy situations.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy is coming along quickly at rookie minicamp, according to head coach Andy Reid. "I thought he did a nice job picking things up," Reid said "We asked him to do a whole lot of stuff there. He was put in mostly the primary spots, so it was good for him to get in there and move around a little bit." The speedster out of Texas recorded two touchdowns in 7-on-7 drills on Monday, according to ArrowHeadPride.com. This year's No. 28 overall pick will have sky-high expectations right away because of his situation with quarterback Patrick Mahomes and his record-breaking 4.21 forty-yard dash at the NFL combine. However, Kansas City has a complex offense to learn, and the pass-catching trio of Travis Kelce, Marquise Brown, and Rashee Rice presents stiff target competition for Worthy in Year 1.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent defensive lineman Marlon Davidson has agreed to terms to sign with the Tennessee Titans, according to ESPN's Turron Davenport. The former First-Team All-SEC performer at Auburn was selected with the No. 47 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft by the Atlanta Falcons, but he played in just 19 games for the organization. After a brief stint with the San Francisco 49ers last offseason, he signed with the Titans as a member of the practice squad and ended up appearing in five games. Overall, the 25-year-old has accumulated 39 tackles, two sacks, one interception, two pass deflections, and three run stuffs through his first 24 NFL contests. He'll likely compete to be a rotational run-stopper after Tennessee selected Texas defensive tackle T'Vondre Sweat in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin is moving back into the slot receiver role in 2024, according to his position coach, Bryan McClendon. Godwin, who has posted at least 1,000 receiving yards in four of his last five seasons, played just 32.1% of his snaps in the slot last year. In 2022, he lined up in the slot 57.6% of the time. The 28-year-old's 7.6 targets per game was his lowest clip since 2020, so perhaps a move back to his more natural position will see that figure come back toward the 9.0 per game range. Mike Evans remains in the X-role, while Trey Palmer and third-round rookie Jalen McMillan will compete to start in three-wide sets.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins running back Jeff Wilson Jr. won't be assured of a roster spot out of training camp this summer as part of a crowded backfield that includes Raheem Mostert, De'Von Achane and rookie fourth-rounder Jaylen Wright. The Dolphins also have Salvon Ahmed and Chris Brooks in the RB room. Head coach Mike McDaniel has an affinity for Wilson dating back to their time together with the San Francisco 49ers, but the fact remains that Mostert, Achane and Wright will be locks for the roster. The former undrafted free agent out of North Texas failed to take advantage of Achane's injuries in 2023 and only played in 10 games (zero starts) himself, running for just 188 yards and no touchdowns on 41 carries while adding 14 receptions for 85 yards and no touchdowns.
From RotoBaller
Most of the beat writers for the New York Giants would be surprised if first-round rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers isn't the team's most targeted player right away in 2024, but Wan'Dale Robinson should give him a good race. A fully healthy Robinson should push for the team lead in targets, but it's obvious that Nabers, the sixth overall pick in this year's NFL draft, has much more fantasy upside, both in the short and long term. The Giants are going to need playmakers like Nabers and Robinson to step now that running back Saquon Barkley is no longer in town. The 23-year-old Robinson, who was a second-rounder in 2022, suffered an ACL tear in his rookie year before catching 60 of 78 targets for 525 yards and a touchdown in 15 games (eight starts) last year. There's potential for a Robinson to take a big step forward in 2024, but it will also depend on quarterback Daniel Jones' (knee) health.
From RotoBaller
It sounds as though the Green Bay Packers have plans to integrate rookie running back MarShawn Lloyd into their offense right away in 2024. "I would like to get him out there as much as possible," offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. The coordinator said that Lloyd doesn't bring the same type of versatility that AJ Dillon does, but the rookie brings a different speed element to their backfield, and the Packers want to get Lloyd into open spaces. The 23-year-old was taken in the third round (88th overall). Josh Jacobs is going to be the Packers' clear-cut backfield leader, but it sounds as though Lloyd is seriously going to challenge Dillon for complementary touches right away, although he'll need to secure the ball better than he did in college to stay on the field. Lloyd might not make much noise in redraft formats in 2024, but he's a fine target for dynasty/keeper managers.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent wide receiver Zay Jones, who was released by the Jacksonville Jaguars after the NFL draft, is visiting with the Tennessee Titans on Monday, according to a source. Jones has an obvious connection to Titans offensive coordinator Nick Holz, as the two worked together in Jacksonville in 2023. Jones became expendable for the Jags after they drafted Brian Thomas in the first round this year. The 29-year-old oft-injured receiver played in just nine games for Jacksonville last year due to a knee injury and finished with 34 catches for 321 yards and two touchdowns on 64 targets. If Jones does land in Tennessee with Holz, he'd merely be serving in a complementary depth role behind Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks if he can stay healthy, which would keep his fantasy ceiling and floor pretty low.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (wrist) is back on the field during the team's offseason workouts. Burrow is expected to be cleared for full contact at some point this month, and barring any setbacks after having surgery in November to fix a torn ligament in his right wrist, he should be fully recovered in time for training camp in late July. The 27-year-old has developed somewhat of a reputation for being injury-prone early in his career, but when he's healthy, he also has high-end QB1 upside in an offense that remains explosive with receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The former first overall pick in 2020 out of LSU was a Pro Bowler in 2022 in his last full season, when he threw for 4,475 yards, 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 16 starts. Burrow will be a fine QB1 target in fantasy after the top names come off the board.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent running back Rashaad Penny plans to sign an undisclosed deal with the Carolina Panthers, according to a source. The former first-round pick will reunite with head coach Dave Canales from their time together with the Seattle Seahawks. Penny will likely officially sign after the team's rookie minicamp, which wraps up on May 12. The 28-year-old from San Diego State was the 27th overall pick in 2018. Penny spent the first five years of his career in Seattle, displaying home run-hitting ability on the ground but struggling to stay healthy, appearing in just 42 games (11 starts). He played in just three games with the Eagles in 2023 and had only 11 carries for 33 yards. Penny will be joining another crowded backfield in Carolina that already consists of Chuba Hubbard, Miles Sanders and rookie Jonathon Brooks, so he's not going to be on the fantasy radar.
From RotoBaller
The Las Vegas Raiders signed former Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Jalen Guyton to an undisclosed deal on Monday. New Raiders general manager Tom Telesco also signed Guyton a few times when he was running the Chargers' front office. Guyton opened his last year with the Bolts in 2023 on the Physically Unable to Perform list, which caused him to miss the first eight games. When the 26-year-old returned, he had just 10 catches (21 targets) for 89 yards and a touchdown in eight games, even with Mike Williams (knee) missing most of the year with a season-ending injury. The former undrafted free agent out of North Texas can serve as a deep threat, but he's mostly served as receiving depth in his career and will continue to do so in Vegas behind Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker and Michael Gallup.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The New York Jets drafted running back Isaiah Davis in the fifth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Davis has an uphill climb to a roster spot with the New York Jets after being taken in the fifth round. The Jets already have Breece Hall as their starter and also took Braelon Allen to shore up their backfield. Still, he has a chance and could surprise as a late-round small school prospect. While he may need to beat out Allen to earn a spot on the team, Davis should still be kept on watch lists for the time being.
Free-agent WR Zay Jones (Jaguars) is visiting the Tennessee Titans, according to sources Monday, May 6.
From TheHuddle
Free-agent RB Rashaad Penny (Eagles) plans to sign with the Carolina Panthers following rookie minicamp, according to sources Monday, May 6. Financial terms of the deal were not immediately disclosed.
Fantasy Spin: Penny has always had intrigue since he became a first-round pick in 2018. With Chuba Hubbard and Jonathon Brooks already there, Penny isn't anything more than a desperation flier at the end of the roster.
From TheHuddle
