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Lineup Prep: Week 10

Wed Nov 6 9:06am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Sutton can continue his hot play

It is hard to believe that we are in Week 10 of the fantasy football season. This season is just flying by. Hopefully, things are going well for all your teams. There is still hope left if you are struggling but time is running out. You need to make your move now. Maybe getting back some players back healthy will be just the thing to get your team going. There are some guys coming back this week, including Christian McCaffrey. He could certainly give fantasy teams a shot in the arm.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .

Well, that was certainly an interesting trade deadline. We had plenty of movement with much of it on the defensive side of the ball. There were a few offensive moves, but nothing that is going to move the fantasy needle much. Receiver Jonathan Mingo gets a fresh start with the Cowboys but likely will be hit or miss in a reserve role. I don’t see him making a huge impact with his new team, especially right away.

The one offensive trade I think is a little intriguing is receiver Mike Williams going to the Steelers. He could be a starter before long, giving the Steelers a much needed upgrade at receiver opposite George Pickens. Williams is likely his usual boom-or-bust self but a move to the Steelers gives him a much better chance to boom. He might be worth a speculative grab for fantasy owners.

The other offensive move was running back Khalil Herbert getting shipped to the Bengals. This is a good move for Herbert but I don’t see him getting a ton of weekly touches with his new team. He should be the top backup to Chase Brown now that Zack Moss is done for the season. Herbert might have a good game or two on occasion but he has little fantasy value as long as Brown is healthy.

Tampa is one team that really impresses me right now. They are decimated by injuries at receiver but still producing points and that defense sure keeps them in games. The Bucs are a scary team. You have to wonder what they would be like if Chris Godwin and Mike Evans were healthy and playing. Either way, Tampa could be a tough team in the playoffs even without those guys. This team plays hard and the offense finds new ways to get it done on a weekly basis.

I have no idea how Drake Maye is doing it right now. He has 20-plus fantasy points three of four games. He is doing it with very little to work with at receiver. He just finds a way to make plays. I’m very excited about his future. The Patriots just need to add a few top weapons at receiver this offseason and Maye is looking really, really good going forward. He is an exciting, young player.

The Cowboys are a train wreck right now. They are without their top two offensive players. And it could be that way for several games. Dallas has all sorts of money tied up with those two players as well. Their future is not looking too good right now. I would be worried about the direction of this organization if I were a Cowboys fan.

There are waiver wire pickups that become league winners every season. For this year, it just might be receiver Cedric Tillman. He is second overall in fantasy receiver scoring his last three games. His game has reached new levels, getting a chance to start and serve as the top receiver for the Browns with Amari Cooper now out of the picture. And I’m not sure this is a fluke. He is a talent player that has formed a top rapport with new starting quarterback Jameis Winston.

There was some thought that Travis Kelce was about done after his poor start to the season. Well, that is a distant memory right now. Kelce looks like his old self the last several weeks. He has double-digit receptions two straight games and been targeted double-digit times three of four. Kelce has at least Sven receptions four of five games. Kelce remains an elite fantasy tight end. He keeps getting it done.

News and Notes: The Panthers traded wide receiver Jonathan Mingo and a seventh-round pick to the Cowboys in exchange for a fourth-round pick on Tuesday. . . . .Former head coach Norv Turner was hired by the Raiders on Tuesday to serve as offensive assistant. . . . .Browns defensive end Za'Darius Smith was acquired by the Lions along with a 2026 seventh-round pick in exchange for 2025 fifth- and 2026 sixth-round picks on Tuesday. . . . .The Bengals have acquired running back Khalil Herbert from the Bears in exchange for a seventh-round pick on Tuesday. . . . .Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore was traded along with a 2025 fifth-round draft choice to Commanders in exchange for a 2025 third-round draft choice, 2025 fourth-round draft choice and the 2025 sixth-round draft choice on Tuesday. . . . .Jets receiver Mike Williams was traded to the Steelers in exchange for a 2025 fifth-round draft choice on Tuesday. . . . .Packers linebacker Preston Smith was traded to the Steelers in exchange for a 2025 seventh-round draft choice on Tuesday. . . . .The Vikings signed kicker John Parker Romo on Tuesday. He will take over the kicking duties for Minnesota after Will Reichard was placed on Injured Reserve. . . . .Rams cornerback Tre'Davious White was traded along with a 2027 seventh-round draft choice to the Ravens in exchange for a 2026 seventh-round draft on Tuesday.

HOT PLAYS

Sam Darnold, QB, Vikings. Darnold is ninth overall in fantasy quarterback scoring, seeing a big-time revival as the starter for the Vikings. He has excelled in that role. He has two straight games with 20-plus fantasy points and hit that mark five of eight games, showing great consistency. Sure, he had some turnover issues last week but that didn’t hurt his fantasy numbers much, scoring 24.9 fantasy points. He can keep it going in Week 10 against the Jaguars, a team that allows the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks and ranks 31st against the pass.

Kyren Williams, RB, Rams. Williams had his worst fantasy game of the season last week and still scored 10.5 fantasy points. It was his first game all season without a touchdown. This shows Williams has a great fantasy floor right now, maybe as good as any player in the game. He can rebound in a big way this week against the Dolphins. Miami is great against the pass but really struggles against the run. The Dolphins allow the eighth most fantasy points to running backs. Miami has allowed 140-plus rushing yards three of five games.

Brian Thomas, WR, Jaguars. Thomas was able to play last week with his chest injury but disappointed, catching two passes for 22 yards on four targets. It was his second worst fantasy game of the season. The good news is he played 91 percent of the snaps, which was his highest total of the season. He was not limited in the game. We look for him to get it going again this week in a prime matchup against the Vikings. Minnesota allows the most fantasy points to receivers and ranks 28th overall against the pass. Don’t bench Thomas because of his poor showing last week. He will be fine.

Cade Otton, TE, Bucs. Otton is a matchup-proof player right now. He is absolutely racking up the targets with the Bucs missing their top two receivers. Otton has double-digit targets three straight games and at least eight catches all of those games. He has topped 21 fantasy points two straight. He is the clear top option in this passing game right now. Otton also is first overall in fantasy tight end scoring his last three games. Keep him in your lineup this week against the 49ers. It should be more of the same for Otton.

Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos. Sutton is another player racking up the looks, having double-digit targets two straight. He has quickly formed a nice rapport with rookie quarterback Bo Nix. He has two straight 100-yard games and topped 15 fantasy points four of six games. Sutton is setup for another 100-yard showing in a game the Broncos will need to score some points to win. They have a tough one against the Chiefs, so look for Nix to target his top receiver often.

COLD PLAYS

Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals. Murray has been more up and down than fantasy owners hoped for this year. He had two straight games with 22-plus fantasy points before putting up just 7.3 fantasy points last week against the Bears. This was his worst fantasy game of the season but fifth with fewer than 20 fantasy points. He has been up and down. We look for another down game this week against the Jets. New York has been stout against the pass, allowing the fourth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Chase Brown, RB, Bengals. With Zack Moss out, Brown has dominated the work at running back and produced well. He scored a season-best 26.7 fantasy points last week and had his first 100-yard rushing game. He has touchdowns five of six games. We are a little concerned about his matchup this week against the Ravens. He did score a touchdown against the Ravens in Week 5 but had just 54 total yards on 15 touches. It was a poor showing outside of the score. So if he doesn’t find the end one this week, Brown could disappoint fantasy owners. The Ravens allow the eighth fewest fantasy points to running backs and are first overall against the run, allowing just 75.7-rushing yards per game.

Quentin Johnston, WR, Chargers. Johnston returned to the lineup last week and had his first 100-yard game of the season. He scored 22 fantasy points, finishing with four receptions for 118 yards and a touchdown. He remains a boom-or-bust play, though. He has three games with fewer than seven fantasy points. He just doesn’t get a ton of weekly targets, having six as a season high. This makes him that boom or bust play. We think he will be a bust this week against a very good Titans pass defense. Tennessee is first overall against the pass, allowing just 155.8-passing yards per game. Go with safer options.

David Montgomery, RB, Lions. Montgomery is having another very good season, splitting work with Jahmyr Gibbs. He has gotten less work than Gibbs on occasion, though. He has fewer than double-digit carries two of three games and failed to hit 35-rushing yards two of those games. His touchdown potential makes him a tough player to sit but don’t be surprised if he struggles to gain many yards again this week against the Texans. Houston allows the third fewest fantasy points to running backs and is 12th overall against the rush.

Michael Pittman, WR, Colts. Pittman belongs on all fantasy benches right now. He could even be dropped in some shallow leagues. He has been a disaster much of the season. Pittman has just a catch each of his last two games. He has not reached double-digit fantasy points since Week 6. He has just two games all season with more than 50 yards. You just didn’t see this season coming from him after the last two years. Pittman is not a player to trust, especially this week against the Bills. Buffalo allows the seventh fewest fantasy points to receivers.

SLEEPERS

Daniel Jones, QB, Giants. Jones is a hard fantasy player to trust but capable of that big game any given week. He has a high ceiling and a low floor. Jones scored a season-high 27.1 fantasy points last week, finding the end zone three times. This was his fourth game with 20-plus fantasy points. The Giants are a lot healthier at receiver these days, so Jones could start showing more consistency. And he has a prime matchup this week for another 20-plus point fantasy game. Jones gets the Panthers, a team that allows the sixth most fantasy points to quarterbacks and ranks 25th overall against the pass.

Rico Dowdle, RB, Cowboys. Ezekiel Elliott was a scratch last week, showing that Dowdle is now the clear top back in this offense. He responded with his best game of the year, getting 107 total yards and a score on 17 touches. Dowdle has double-digit fantasy points four straight. And with Dak Prescott out, the Cowboys could rely on Dowdle and the running game even more going forward. We like for Dowdle to get a big workload this week against the Eagles. Plus, Dowdle is getting more work at receiver, having five receptions each of his last two games. His floor is high right now.

Khalil Shakir, WR, Bills. Shakir has been a constant in the Bills offense. He had double-digit fantasy points all but a game. He had a tough matchup against a good Dolphins pass defense last week but still managed six receptions for 50 yards on seven targets. Shakir just keeps getting it done and is a legit low-end No. 2 fantasy receiver. You have to love his weekly floor. Shakir should hit double-digit fantasy points once again in Week 10 against the Colts. Indy allows the 10th most fantasy points to receivers and ranks 26th overall against the pass.

Jonnu Smith, TE, Dolphins. Smith hasn’t been off the charts this year but pretty consistent. He has at least four receptions four straight games. He caught five passes last week and has at least six targets four straight. And the return of Tua Tagovailoa is a big positive for the Dolphins and Smith. Look for Smith to have a big game this week against the Rams. Los Angeles has really struggled to stop the tight end, allowing the sixth most fantasy points to tight ends.

Jauan Jennings, WR, 49ers. Jennings is set to return from his hip injury and should move right into the starting lineup with Brandon Aiyuk done for the season. And Jennings was great earlier this year when given a chance to start. He had at least 11 fantasy points three of four games to start the season. Jennings can have a huge game any given week in this offense. And he should do well this week against the Bucs, a team that allows the sixth most fantasy points to receivers and is much better against the run than the pass.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Bengals/Ravens, Vikings/Jaguars, 49ers/Bucs, Lions/Texans, Dolphins/Rams.

Low Scoring Games: Broncos/Chiefs, Patriots/Bears, Titans/Chargers.

Byes: Browns, Packers, Raiders, Seahawks.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 10

The Paur Report