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Lineup Prep: Week 15

Wed Dec 10 8:43am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Harvey is a must start Week 15

Alright, it is crunch time. You are either in the first round of your fantasy playoffs or the last week of your regular season, depending on your format. I say this a lot but I really mean it. Don’t get too cute. What do I mean by that? Well, it means start your top players and don’t overthink things. Sometimes owners get too caught up in matchups and bench a player they shouldn’t or start a player they shouldn’t. You don’t want to lose your first-round playoff game because you started Tyler Shough over Patrick Mahomes because he has been playing better and Mahomes has a really tough matchup. Don’t do it! Good luck in all your games. Let’s get some wins.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .

I would guess that Philip Rivers eventually gets a shot to start for the Colts - maybe not this week but in the weeks to come. You would have to think his arm strength isn’t what it used to be, so expect a lot of shorter throws. This likely gives tight end Tyler Warren and possession receiver Michael Pittman maybe a few more looks with Rivers at the helm. You still have to downgrade the entire offense going forward, though. Things are going south for the Colts in a hurry and to top it off, they have a very tough schedule to finish the season. Having any Colts fantasy players on your team is a concern for the rest of this year. Not good.

The Texans defense is proving to be matchup-proof. They shut down any team they play. Just keep that in mind in the coming weeks. Sometimes you have to make hard decisions, so don’t be afraid to bench a top fantasy player going against the Texans during the fantasy playoffs. This unit is no joke. Houston gets the Cardinals, Raiders and Chargers their next three games. Plan accordingly.

Every year, you get some unexpected league winners during the fantasy playoffs. I think Wan’Dale Robinson could be one of those league winners this year. He has been huge with Jaxson Dart as his starting quarterback, racking up the targets. He has double-digit targets four of seven games. He has some favorable matchups against the Commanders, Vikings and Raiders his next three games. Robinson is likely the WR2 or WR3 for your team, giving him great value because he could produce like a top-10 option the rest of the way.

Tyler Allgeier has absolutely put a huge dent in the fantasy value of Bijan Robinson. Could you imagine if Robinson got those goal-line scores over Allgeier? Allgeier has eight rushing touchdowns this year. That is 64 fantasy points. If Robinson had those scores, he would have 330.3 fantasy points, which would be first overall in running back scoring. He would be ahead of Christian McCaffrey. Instead, Robinson sits fifth in scoring. He is still having a very good fantasy season but what could have been, right?

I really hope the return of Mike Evans gets Baker Mayfield going. Mayfield just hasn’t produced near his numbers of the last few seasons in Tampa. He clearly has been impacted by the health of his receivers, most notably his favorite option, Evans. Maybe his return sparks Mayfield and gets him going for the fantasy playoffs. It would not surprise me if that happens. Evans is a huge key to this passing game.

Rookie Harold Fannin is going to be a fantasy star. He is sixth overall in fantasy receiver scoring as a rookie in an offense that has been a disaster much of the year. I’m looking forward to the years ahead when the offense is more competent and Fannin is even more seasoned. He is going to be a problem for a long time. This guy is the real deal at a position that can be very top heavy. Fannin is definitely on my radar for next year.

News and Notes: The Colts signed quarterback Philip Rivers to their practice squad on Tuesday. Rivers could challenge for the starting job for the Colts sooner than later. . . . .The Browns signed running back Trayveon Williams off the Chargers practice squad on Tuesday. Williams adds some depth to the backfield after the team lost Jerome Ford to injury.

HOT PLAYS

TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Patriots. Henderson has finally gotten his chance to be the lead back and is taking advantage. He has 11-plus fantasy points five straight games. He has more than 80 total yards all of those five games. Henderson has become a dependable RB2 for fantasy teams. He can post some good numbers this week against the Bills, a team that allows the sixth most fantasy points to running backs. The Bills have allowed more than 180-rushing yards five games this year.

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars. Lawrence has taken a big step forward this season, especially of late. He is fourth overall in fantasy quarterback scoring his last three games. He has 20-plus fantasy points three straight and seven of nine games. Lawrence has been a lot more consistent this season and performed as a top-10 fantasy quarterback most of the year. He should keep it up this week against a reeling Jets team. New York has allowed 23-plus points four straight games. The Jets even allowed 34 points last week to a so-so Dolphins offense.

R.J. Harvey, RB, Broncos. Harvey is becoming a must-start for fantasy teams, taking over the lead role in the Broncos running game. He has 21-plus fantasy points two straight games. He had a season-high 23 total touches last week, including six receptions. That amount of work in the passing game really helps his fantasy floor. Harvey doesn’t have the best matchup against the Packers this week, but Green Bay has been more susceptible to the run lately. The Packers allowed 138-rushing yards last week and 119-plus rush yards three of four games.

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins. Waddle continues to be a bright spot for the Dolphins offense. Miami struggled to do much through the air last week but Waddle still produced for fantasy teams. He had five receptions for 50 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. He also ran once for 21 yards, finishing with 18.1 fantasy points. He has 14-plus fantasy points four of six games. Waddle can produce well again in Week 15 against the Steelers, a team that allows the fifth most fantasy points to receivers.

DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles. Smith has struggled in recent weeks, having fewer than double-digit fantasy points two straight and three of four games. The good news is he is getting his chances, having at least eight targets three straight games. He has 27 total targets during that stretch. It just seems a matter of time before Smith has another one of his huge games. We think it might happen this week against the Raiders, a team that is a bit of a mess right now. Las Vegas allows the third most fantasy points to receivers. Smith is worth a start this week.

COLD PLAYS

Breece Hall, RB, Jets. Hall is just 30th overall in fantasy running back scoring his last three games. He had just 4.3 fantasy points last week against the Dolphins and failed to catch a pass in that game. Hall is becoming a hard fantasy player to trust in this reeling Jets offense. With questions at quarterback this week, you just aren’t sure what you will get from this offense, making Hall a risky fantasy play. Hall also has a tough matchup against the Jaguars, a team that allows the fifth fewest fantasy points to running back. The Jaguars have allowed fewer than 100-rushing yards all but three games.

Alec Pierce, WR, Colts. Pierce has really taken his game to a new level this season, becoming a more well-rounded receiver. But even with that said, he has endured some down games along the way. He has less than double-digit fantasy points four of 11 games. The Colts have all sorts of concerns at quarterback now, which is a huge issue for Pierce. He is going to be hard to trust this week against the Seahawks, a team that allows the sixth-fewest fantasy points to receivers. Seattle has allowed fewer than 155-passing yards two straight and three of four games.

Caleb Williams, QB, Bears. Williams is playing well in year two but his fantasy numbers have kind of been all over the map. He has struggled to help fantasy teams in recent weeks. Williams has less than 18 fantasy points two straight and three of four games. He has failed to top 200-passing yards three of four games with the Bears going to a more run-heavy approach offensively. It could be more of the same this week against the Browns. Cleveland allowed just 108-passing yards last week but 184-rushing yards to the Titans. For the season, the Browns allow the fourth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Blake Corum, RB, Rams. Corum had his best game of the season last week, rushing 12 times for 128 yards and two touchdowns. He has found the end zone two straight games. We still think he is more of a matchup play for fantasy teams. Remember, he has double-digit carries four times this year and topped double-digit fantasy points just one of those four games. He also gets no work in the passing game, having just six receptions for the season. We look for him to come back down to earth this week against the Lions, a team that allows the fewest fantasy points to the running back.

Hunter Henry, TE, Patriots. Henry has at least four receptions three straight games and 70-plus yards two straight. He has produced well his last few games, showing a little more consistency. Henry remains a spot play, though, because of his production throughout the season. He has fewer than double-digit fantasy points eight of 13 games. Henry will struggle at times. He gets a tough matchup this week against the Bills, a team that allows the fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Henry had two receptions for 46 yards against the Bills in Week 5, scoring just 6.6 fantasy points.

SLEEPERS

Dylan Sampson, RB, Browns. With the Browns throwing the ball more last week, Sampson got more playing time and did well with his chances. He played 38 percent of the snaps and had five receptions for 64 yards on six targets. Sampson has double-digit fantasy points two of three games. It would not surprise to see him get a lot of work again this week in a game the Browns might need to throw the ball to play catchup against the Bears. Chicago also can struggle to stop the back in pass coverage. Sampson could be worth a look as a flex play in Week 15.

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Vikings. McCarthy returned to the lineup last week and scored three touchdowns. He had 22.05 fantasy points, his third game this season with 20-plus fantasy points. He has produced some good games along the way despite some inconsistent play on the field. McCarthy is likely to get plenty of chances to air it out this week against the Cowboys. The Vikings are likely going to need to score some points to keep up with the Cowboys offense. Plus, the Cowboys struggle against the pass, allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Isaiah Likely, TE, Ravens. Likely is getting more looks in recent weeks, having six targets each of his last two games. Likely has double-digit fantasy points each of his last two games. He has some spot start appeal for fantasy teams the rest of the way. Likely gets a dream matchup this week against the Bengals, a team that can’t stop the tight end at all this year. The Bengals allow the most fantasy points to tight ends, giving up 24.18 points to the tight end. This is almost eight points more than the team allowing the second most points.

Chris Rodriguez, RB, Commanders. Rodriguez has emerged as the lead back for the Commanders. He has double-digit carries three straight games. His numbers haven’t been off the charts but decent in that starting role. He is worth using in the right matchup and a game this week against the Giants is a good one for him. The Giants have really struggled to stop the run, allowing the second-most fantasy points to running backs. New York has allowed at least 119-rushing yards all but three games.

Rashid Shaheed, WR, Seahawks. Shaheed had his best game as a Seahawk last week, catching four passes for 67 yards on five targets. He also returned a punt for a touchdown. Shaheed had quite the game. Maybe this gets him going. He has not done a whole lot since getting traded to Seattle. He is capable of the big game any given week, though, because of his big-play ability. It would not surprise to see him break off a big play or two this week against the Colts, a team dealing with injuries in the secondary. Indy allows the sixth most fantasy points to receivers.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week, we will take a look at some of the high and low-scoring games for the coming week. In high-scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low-scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Ravens/Bengals, Bills/Patriots, Commanders/Giants, Lions/Rams.

Low Scoring Games: Browns/Bears, Jets/Jaguars, Packers/Broncos.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 15

The Paur Report