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Lineup Prep: Divisional Round

Wed Jan 14 10:35am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Williams can keep it going

I’m not sure this weekend can live up to the last, but let’s hope it happens. Wow, those games were unreal last weekend. Nearly every single one came down to the wire. And several saw multiple lead changes in the fourth quarter. Plus, we had some big-time fantasy performances, leading to some high fantasy scores in the first round of playoff leagues. Let’s keep it going!

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .

Love him or hate him, I would hate to see Aaron Rodgers end his career on an interception that was returned for a touchdown. That would be a terrible way for it to end for him. I would be surprised if Rodgers returns, though, especially after Mike Tomlin left the Steelers. I think Tomlin was a big reason for Rodgers playing this year. I’m just not sure there is going to be a great fit for Rodgers going forward. We’ll see.

Personally, I would fire Nick Sirianni if I were the Eagles. I know they won the Super Bowl last year but I just can’t take all the drama with him and his star players. I know some of the players can be the blame, too, but it sure seems like a pattern with him. And I can’t get over the playcalling of this team. They did fire offensive coordinator Kevin Patella, which is a plus, but I’m not sure that fixes everything. This team has so much talent on both sides of the ball and should not have played like they did all season. I really think Sirianni is a huge part of the problem with this team. I would just move on from him. The window is only so big when it comes to the NFL and the Eagles could be closing sooner than later. Get someone in there that can bring some more stability to the team.

The Panthers lost but sure showed me a lot. This is a team that is going to be a problem the next several seasons. Things are just getting started for them. And I think head coach Dave Canales is a great coach and fit for the franchise. The big thing for the Panthers is the continued development of Bryce Young. He is going to need to keep growing and showing more consistency. Young is making improvements but still isn’t there yet. But you have to be excited about this team if you are a Panthers fan. There is some exciting, young talent on this team.

Houston won that game last week but you still have to worry about that offense. Just when think C.J. Stroud has figured it out again, he makes some head-scratching plays. He is going to have to play a lot better if they hope to win this week. The scary thing is the defense is so, so good in Houston. If the offense was just a little better, I think this team could make a run at the Super Bowl. The defense is that good. I’m just not sure Stroud is playing well enough for that to happen right now.

You have to love the development of Caleb Williams this year. I know he started slow in that game last week but his fourth quarter was epic, making one of the best throws you will ever see on fourth down to help win the game. Williams is a special talent that you could expect to keep getting better, especially under the tutelage of head coach Ben Johnson. Williams might be a top-five fantasy quarterback for me next year. I think he has that kind of ceiling.

HOT PLAYS

Davante Adams, WR, Rams. Adams failed to score a touchdown last week but looked healthy, which is a huge positive. Adams had five receptions for 72 yards and tied a season high in targets with 13. That was another huge positive. He should get a big workload this week against an iffy Bears secondary. Chicago allowed the sixth most fantasy points to receivers during the regular season. We like Adams to find the end zone in this one.

Caleb Williams, QB, Bears. Williams scored 28.05 fantasy points last week. He started slow but had an unbelievable fourth quarter, leading his team to a huge comeback victory. Williams has 21-plus fantasy points four of five games. He has become an elite fantasy quarterback and seems to be gaining confidence every week. We like him to have another big game this week against the Rams. This should be a high scoring game and the Rams have struggled against the pass recently. Los Angeles allowed 235-plus passing yards five of six games.

R.J. Harvey, RB, Broncos. It took a little time but Harvey has emerged as the clear lead back for the Broncos. He has found the end zone five of his last six games. He has double-digit fantasy points all but one of those games. He should get a big workload again this week as the No. 1 back for Denver. He gets the Bills, a team that allowed the eighth most fantasy points to running backs. Buffalo has allowed 150-plus rushing yards three of five games.

COLD PLAYS

Bo Nix, QB, Broncos. Nix led his team to the No. 1 overall seed in the playoffs, having a solid overall season. But from a fantasy perspective, he has been a little erratic. He scored just 11.95 points his last time out and has less than 20 points two of five games. And we could see the Broncos relying on the run more this week, exploiting a weakness of Buffalo. The Bills allowed the third fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks during the regular season. Buffalo has allowed fewer than 140-passing yards four of five games. The pass defense has been a huge strength for the team late in the year.

Stefon Diggs, WR, Patriots. Diggs is the top receiver for the Patriots but his production has been erratic at times this year, especially the last few weeks. He has just five receptions for 59 yards on eight targets his last two games. The opposition is locking him down some lately. We would not be surprised if that happens again this week against the Texans. Houston has maybe the best defense in football and allowed the third fewest fantasy points to receivers during the regular season.

James Cook, RB, Bills. Cook has fewer than nine fantasy points three straight games. He got 15 carries last week but managed just 46 yards. He had another great overall season but some tough rush defense late in the season has given Cook fits. It could be more of the same this week. The Broncos allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs. Denver has allowed fewer than 85-rushing yards two of three games and three of five. This defense is going to give the Bills offense plenty of fits, especially against the run.

SLEEPERS

Cooper Kupp, WR, Seahawks. Kupp hasn’t had much of a season, his first in Seattle, but has enjoyed some success at times. He has double-digit fantasy points four times. You would expect the 49ers to do all they can to take away Jaxon Smith-Njigba, giving Kupp some favorable coverages. Plus, the 49ers are thin in the secondary, which is another big positive for Kupp. Don’t be surprised if he has one of his better games of the season this week. He has a history of success coming up with the big game in the playoffs, so the Seahawks could lean on him more than they did in the regular season.

Jake Tonges, TE, 49ers. Tonges has shown well when given the chance to start this year, having double-digit fantasy points five games. He has proved to be a reliable target at tight end for the 49ers. He could have another one of those double-digit games this week against the Seahawks. Seattle has struggled some at times against the tight end, allowing the 11th most fantasy points to tight ends. Plus, Tonges found the end zone against the Seahawks in Week 1.

Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seahawks. Kenneth Walker gets most of the headlines in the Seahawks backfield but this has turned into a real timeshare down the stretch. Charbonnet has at least 17 carries two straight games. He has 17-plus fantasy points three straight, producing consistent numbers in this high-powered rush attack. He has scored a touchdown in each of his games against the 49ers this year. Charbonnet can do that again this week, making him an intriguing fantasy play.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week, we will take a look at some of the high and low-scoring games for the coming week. In high-scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low-scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Rams/Bears.

Low Scoring Games: Texans/Patriots.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Divisional Round

The Paur Report