Running Back Deep Dive
Tue Aug 9 2:26pm ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Taylor carries less risk this year
Running back is the toughest position to select come draft day. It is an unpredictable position that seems to vary from season to season. There are plenty of factors that go into this, so we thought it might be a good idea to delve deeper into the subject. We decided to look at age and wear and tear of the top rated backs from past seasons to help figure out the best running backs to take come draft day. We took a look at the top 10 fantasy running backs from the last five seasons, going over age, seasons played to date, and whether they were rookies or not.
| 2021 | AGE | EXP | 2020 | AGE | EXP | |||
| 1. | J. Taylor | 22 | 1 | 1. | A. Kamara | 25 | 3 | |
| 2. | A. Ekeler | 26 | 4 | 2. | D. Cook | 25 | 3 | |
| 3. | N. Harris ® | 23 | 0 | 3. | D. Henry | 26 | 4 | |
| 4. | J. Mixon | 25 | 4 | 4. | D. Montgomery | 23 | 1 | |
| 5. | J. Conner | 26 | 4 | 5. | A. Jones | 26 | 3 | |
| 6. | L. Fournette | 26 | 4 | 6. | J. Taylor ® | 21 | 0 | |
| 7. | E. Elliott | 26 | 5 | 7. | J. Robinson ® | 22 | 0 | |
| 8. | A. Kamara | 26 | 4 | 8. | J. Jacobs | 22 | 1 | |
| 9. | C. Patterson | 30 | 8 | 9. | E. Elliott | 25 | 4 | |
| 10. | A. Gibson | 23 | 1 | 10. | K. Hunt | 25 | 3 | |
| 2019 | AGE | EXP | 2018 | AGE | EXP | |||
| 1. | C. McCaffrey | 23 | 2 | 1. | S. Barkley ® | 21 | 0 | |
| 2. | D. Henry | 25 | 3 | 2. | C. McCaffrey | 22 | 1 | |
| 3. | A. Jones | 25 | 2 | 3. | T. Gurley | 24 | 3 | |
| 4. | E. Elliott | 24 | 3 | 4. | A. Kamara | 23 | 1 | |
| 5. | D. Cook | 24 | 2 | 5. | E. Elliott | 23 | 2 | |
| 6. | N. Chubb | 24 | 1 | 6. | J. Conner | 23 | 1 | |
| 7. | A. Ekeler | 24 | 2 | 7. | J . White | 26 | 4 | |
| 8. | M. Ingram | 30 | 8 | 8. | M. Gordon | 25 | 3 | |
| 9. | C. Carson | 25 | 2 | 9. | D. Johnson | 27 | 3 | |
| 10. | S. Barkley | 22 | 1 | 10. | J. Mixon | 22 | 1 | |
| 2017 | AGE | EXP | ||||||
| 1. | T. Gurley | 23 | 2 | |||||
| 2. | L. Bell | 25 | 4 | |||||
| 3. | A. Kamara ® | 22 | 0 | |||||
| 4. | K. Hunt ® | 22 | 0 | |||||
| 5. | M. Gordon | 24 | 2 | |||||
| 6. | M. Ingram | 28 | 6 | |||||
| 7. | L. McCoy | 29 | 8 | |||||
| 8. | C. Hyde | 27 | 3 | |||||
| 9. | L. Fournette ® | 22 | 0 | |||||
| 10. | C. McCaffrey ® | 21 | 0 |
Here are the big takeaways from the data. First off, the average age of the top 10 fantasy backs from the past five seasons was 24.26. That is quite young, showing that this position can age out in a hurry. And many of the top backs in the game are just a season or two into their careers. The running back spot is a young man’s game.
During the last two seasons, just one back over the age of 27 made the list. And there are just six backs total in five seasons that are 27 years old or older (12 percent). Again, the data overwhelmingly shows that younger backs have the best chance to produce big for fantasy owners.
The average number of seasons played for these players also is just 2.54. So you are looking at players in their second and third seasons most likely finishing as a top 10 fantasy back. These backs are relatively new to the league and making a big splash in a hurry.
Rookies also have a history of making an impact. There has been at least one rookie four of the last five seasons to finish in the top 10. There are eight total rookies that have finished in the top 10 the last five years (16%). So there is a pretty good chance a rookie back makes the list once again this year. Young backs can make a splash in a hurry. Just look at 2017 when four rookies were top 10 fantasy backs.
Now that we have all this data, let’s put it to good use and apply it to this year. Below is a list of the top 20 fantasy backs according to the latest ADP. The list includes age and seasons played in the NFL.
| 2022 RB ADP | AGE | EXP | |
| 1. | J. Taylor | 23 | 2 |
| 2. | C. McCaffrey | 26 | 5 |
| 3. | A. Ekeler | 27 | 5 |
| 4. | N. Harris | 24 | 1 |
| 5. | D. Cook | 27 | 5 |
| 6. | D. Henry | 28 | 6 |
| 7. | D. Swift | 23 | 2 |
| 8. | J. Mixon | 26 | 5 |
| 9. | J. Williams | 22 | 1 |
| 10. | N. Chubb | 26 | 4 |
| 11. | S. Barkley | 25 | 4 |
| 12. | L. Fournette | 27 | 5 |
| 13. | A. Jones | 27 | 5 |
| 14. | E. Elliott | 27 | 6 |
| 15. | J. Conner | 27 | 5 |
| 16. | C. Akers | 23 | 2 |
| 17. | D. Montgomery | 25 | 3 |
| 18. | T. Etienne | 23 | 1 |
| 19. | J. Jacobs | 24 | 3 |
| 20. | B. Hall | 21 | 0 |
After seeing the list, there are 10 players (highlighted above) that make the cut as players around 24.26 years old and playing around 2.54 seasons. Remember, those are the benchmark numbers for top 10 fantasy backs the last five seasons. The highlighted players might be good targets for fantasy teams. Just something to keep in mind come draft day. If you have to pick between a guy like James Conner or Travis Etienne, maybe this data will push you towards Etienne, a guy many are high on and think could have a breakout season. Go younger, right?
Also, Breece Hall is the only rookie in the top 20 ADP for running backs. If history is correct, there is a decent chance Hall or another rookie back finishes above that ADP, cracking the top 10. Hall is another player you might want to think about grabbing come draft day.
In closing, it seems the backs that carry the least risk are young backs with just a few seasons under their belt. The numbers don’t lie. This might not be new news to a lot of you, but for some, it might be a little eye opening, seeing how quickly backs fade in this league.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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- RB Duke Johnson retires from NFL after 8 seasons
- Former Bears QB Bob Avellini dies at age 70
- J.J. Watt leaves door open (slightly) for potential return to Texans
- Seahawks sign first-round pick Byron Murphy II
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- Ravens sign 5 draft picks, including first-rounder Nate Wiggins
- Steelers decline RB Najee Harris' fifth-year option
- Colts guarantee edge rusher Kwity Paye $13.4M, pick up 2025 option
- Packers decline CB Eric Stokes' fifth-year option
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- Fantasy Six Pack: Dynasty Football Rookie WR Landing Spots
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