Running Back Deep Dive
Tue Aug 9 2:26pm ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Taylor carries less risk this year
Running back is the toughest position to select come draft day. It is an unpredictable position that seems to vary from season to season. There are plenty of factors that go into this, so we thought it might be a good idea to delve deeper into the subject. We decided to look at age and wear and tear of the top rated backs from past seasons to help figure out the best running backs to take come draft day. We took a look at the top 10 fantasy running backs from the last five seasons, going over age, seasons played to date, and whether they were rookies or not.
| 2021 | AGE | EXP | 2020 | AGE | EXP | |||
| 1. | J. Taylor | 22 | 1 | 1. | A. Kamara | 25 | 3 | |
| 2. | A. Ekeler | 26 | 4 | 2. | D. Cook | 25 | 3 | |
| 3. | N. Harris ® | 23 | 0 | 3. | D. Henry | 26 | 4 | |
| 4. | J. Mixon | 25 | 4 | 4. | D. Montgomery | 23 | 1 | |
| 5. | J. Conner | 26 | 4 | 5. | A. Jones | 26 | 3 | |
| 6. | L. Fournette | 26 | 4 | 6. | J. Taylor ® | 21 | 0 | |
| 7. | E. Elliott | 26 | 5 | 7. | J. Robinson ® | 22 | 0 | |
| 8. | A. Kamara | 26 | 4 | 8. | J. Jacobs | 22 | 1 | |
| 9. | C. Patterson | 30 | 8 | 9. | E. Elliott | 25 | 4 | |
| 10. | A. Gibson | 23 | 1 | 10. | K. Hunt | 25 | 3 | |
| 2019 | AGE | EXP | 2018 | AGE | EXP | |||
| 1. | C. McCaffrey | 23 | 2 | 1. | S. Barkley ® | 21 | 0 | |
| 2. | D. Henry | 25 | 3 | 2. | C. McCaffrey | 22 | 1 | |
| 3. | A. Jones | 25 | 2 | 3. | T. Gurley | 24 | 3 | |
| 4. | E. Elliott | 24 | 3 | 4. | A. Kamara | 23 | 1 | |
| 5. | D. Cook | 24 | 2 | 5. | E. Elliott | 23 | 2 | |
| 6. | N. Chubb | 24 | 1 | 6. | J. Conner | 23 | 1 | |
| 7. | A. Ekeler | 24 | 2 | 7. | J . White | 26 | 4 | |
| 8. | M. Ingram | 30 | 8 | 8. | M. Gordon | 25 | 3 | |
| 9. | C. Carson | 25 | 2 | 9. | D. Johnson | 27 | 3 | |
| 10. | S. Barkley | 22 | 1 | 10. | J. Mixon | 22 | 1 | |
| 2017 | AGE | EXP | ||||||
| 1. | T. Gurley | 23 | 2 | |||||
| 2. | L. Bell | 25 | 4 | |||||
| 3. | A. Kamara ® | 22 | 0 | |||||
| 4. | K. Hunt ® | 22 | 0 | |||||
| 5. | M. Gordon | 24 | 2 | |||||
| 6. | M. Ingram | 28 | 6 | |||||
| 7. | L. McCoy | 29 | 8 | |||||
| 8. | C. Hyde | 27 | 3 | |||||
| 9. | L. Fournette ® | 22 | 0 | |||||
| 10. | C. McCaffrey ® | 21 | 0 |
Here are the big takeaways from the data. First off, the average age of the top 10 fantasy backs from the past five seasons was 24.26. That is quite young, showing that this position can age out in a hurry. And many of the top backs in the game are just a season or two into their careers. The running back spot is a young man’s game.
During the last two seasons, just one back over the age of 27 made the list. And there are just six backs total in five seasons that are 27 years old or older (12 percent). Again, the data overwhelmingly shows that younger backs have the best chance to produce big for fantasy owners.
The average number of seasons played for these players also is just 2.54. So you are looking at players in their second and third seasons most likely finishing as a top 10 fantasy back. These backs are relatively new to the league and making a big splash in a hurry.
Rookies also have a history of making an impact. There has been at least one rookie four of the last five seasons to finish in the top 10. There are eight total rookies that have finished in the top 10 the last five years (16%). So there is a pretty good chance a rookie back makes the list once again this year. Young backs can make a splash in a hurry. Just look at 2017 when four rookies were top 10 fantasy backs.
Now that we have all this data, let’s put it to good use and apply it to this year. Below is a list of the top 20 fantasy backs according to the latest ADP. The list includes age and seasons played in the NFL.
| 2022 RB ADP | AGE | EXP | |
| 1. | J. Taylor | 23 | 2 |
| 2. | C. McCaffrey | 26 | 5 |
| 3. | A. Ekeler | 27 | 5 |
| 4. | N. Harris | 24 | 1 |
| 5. | D. Cook | 27 | 5 |
| 6. | D. Henry | 28 | 6 |
| 7. | D. Swift | 23 | 2 |
| 8. | J. Mixon | 26 | 5 |
| 9. | J. Williams | 22 | 1 |
| 10. | N. Chubb | 26 | 4 |
| 11. | S. Barkley | 25 | 4 |
| 12. | L. Fournette | 27 | 5 |
| 13. | A. Jones | 27 | 5 |
| 14. | E. Elliott | 27 | 6 |
| 15. | J. Conner | 27 | 5 |
| 16. | C. Akers | 23 | 2 |
| 17. | D. Montgomery | 25 | 3 |
| 18. | T. Etienne | 23 | 1 |
| 19. | J. Jacobs | 24 | 3 |
| 20. | B. Hall | 21 | 0 |
After seeing the list, there are 10 players (highlighted above) that make the cut as players around 24.26 years old and playing around 2.54 seasons. Remember, those are the benchmark numbers for top 10 fantasy backs the last five seasons. The highlighted players might be good targets for fantasy teams. Just something to keep in mind come draft day. If you have to pick between a guy like James Conner or Travis Etienne, maybe this data will push you towards Etienne, a guy many are high on and think could have a breakout season. Go younger, right?
Also, Breece Hall is the only rookie in the top 20 ADP for running backs. If history is correct, there is a decent chance Hall or another rookie back finishes above that ADP, cracking the top 10. Hall is another player you might want to think about grabbing come draft day.
In closing, it seems the backs that carry the least risk are young backs with just a few seasons under their belt. The numbers don’t lie. This might not be new news to a lot of you, but for some, it might be a little eye opening, seeing how quickly backs fade in this league.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
- From Rice to Harrison, bloodlines run deep in 2024 NFL Draft
- Cowboys commit to Dak Prescott, 'all in' on youth movement
- Bears GM Ryan Poles feigns suspense around No. 1 pick: 'Tune in Thursday'
- NFL reinstates Eagles' Isaiah Rodgers after gambling ban
- Polarizing Michael Penix Jr. drawing heavy public interest
- NFL tampering probe won't affect 2024 draft picks for Eagles, Falcons
- Texans unveil first uniform redesign in franchise history
- Bengals re-sign QB Jake Browning
- Chiefs extend deals of Andy Reid, GM, president
- 49ers GM John Lynch expects WR Brandon Aiyuk to stay long-term
- Broncos land QB Zach Wilson in trade with Jets
- Matt Ryan returns to Atlanta, retires as member of Falcons
- Michael Penix Jr. tells GMs what to expect of him: perseverance
- Bengals DE Sam Hubbard reveals ankle reconstruction surgery
- Commanders cut reinstated DE Shaka Toney
- Quinyon Mitchell confident as top CB in 2024 NFL Draft
- Netflix to air live roast of Tom Brady on May 5
- Packers focus on draft; contract for QB Jordan Love on radar
- Broncos to sign veteran CB Levi Wallace
- Texans re-signing RB Dare Ogunbowale
- Fantasy Six Pack: NFL Draft Updates – Live Chat
- Fantasy Six Pack: Dynasty Football Rookie WR Tiered Rankings
- Fantasy Six Pack: Dynasty Football Rookie RB Tiered Rankings
The Paur Report
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk has been in trade rumors ever since the team lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII. Although general manager John Lynch has seemingly tried to shut down trade rumors, NFL insider Michael Silver said a potential trade is still "very much in play." "To this point, the 49ers have asked for a 2024 first-round pick," Silver wrote. An executive for another team reportedly said the asking price is too high, while another league general manager said he believes the 49ers might ultimately accept a second-round selection. Aiyuk's camp is reportedly asking for an average salary of around $25 million, a price that San Francisco has been unwilling to offer. The 26-year-old could be a true No. 1 wide receiver for another organization, but the target competition on the 49ers roster has made it more difficult for him to be a consistent producer.
From RotoBaller
The NFL announced on Tuesday that their review into potential tampering from the Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons is ongoing and will not conclude this week. That said, any potential punishments will come after the 2024 NFL Draft and will not affect this year's draft order. The Falcons are being investigated for allegedly making contact with quarterback Kirk Cousins before they were allowed to, while the Eagles are facing similar circumstances with running back Saquon Barkley. The Miami Dolphins lost their 2023 first-round pick over attempts to acquire quarterback Tom Brady and coach Sean Payton in 2019 while they were active members of other organizations. That said, Atlanta and Philadelphia could be handed similar punishments in future drafts if they are found to have engaged in illegal tampering.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent quarterback Logan Woodside signed with the Cincinnati Bengals on Tuesday, the team announced on X. The former Toledo signal-caller was selected by the Bengals in the 2018 NFL Draft, but he was waived before his rookie season began. He then signed with the Tennessee Titans but lasted just a few weeks with the organization before spending time with the San Antonio Commanders of the AAF. He made his way back to the NFL with Tennessee for three and half years before one and a half years with the Atlanta Falcons. The 29-year-old has completed just four passes for 34 yards in his professional career, so it'd be a surprise if he beat out Jake Browning for the QB2 job behind Joe Burrow.
From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos have picked up the fifth-year option on Pro Bowl cornerback Patrick Surtain II, meaning he will remain under contract through the 2025 NFL season. Since being selected by Denver with the No. 9 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft out of Alabama, Surtain has earned two trips to the Pro Bowl and one first-team All-Pro honor. In 50 career games, he has racked up 187 tackles (150 solo), one forced fumble, seven interceptions, and 36 pass deflections. The Broncos are in an interesting time for the organization with Sean Payton at the helm, and the roster needs major reinforcements. However, they have their true No. 1 cornerback locked in for at least the next two seasons.
From RotoBaller
The NFL reinstated Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Isaiah Rodgers Sr. from his year-long suspension on Tuesday for violating the league's policy on gambling. Rodgers was with the Indianapolis Colts when he was suspended on June 29 but was released by the team later that day and signed with the Eagles in August. Rodgers said bets were made from his account for people who lived in Florida, where online sports betting at that time remained illegal. At the time of his suspension, Rodgers had placed more than 100 bets, including some on Colts' games. In his three seasons in Indy, Rodgers had three interceptions and 10 passes defensed while also playing on special teams as a kick and punt returner. The Eagles are hoping he can provide them with some secondary depth after their defense last year was highly disappointing.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (Achilles) wants to stick around in the NFL beyond 2024, but he's only signed with the team through this season. Rodgers, even at 40 and coming off a torn Achilles, should give the team a better chance to win than former first-rounder Zach Wilson, who was traded to the Broncos on Monday. But after Rodgers, the QB pipeline is dry. For the first time since 2017, the Jets don't have a young hope at the position. If the 2024 season doesn't go well, they could be looking at an organizational reset. General manager Joe Douglas sounds as if he wants to take a QB in this week's NFL draft, presumably on Day 2 or 3. Tulane's Michael Pratt and Florida State's Jordan Travis took pre-draft visits to the Jets.
From RotoBaller
The New England Patriots currently own the No. 3 overall pick in this week's NFL draft. Unsurprisingly, many teams are interested in trading up to the third spot this year to take a quarterback of the future. The problem is the Patriots need a new franchise QB of their own after cutting the cord on Mac Jones this offseason. Also, according to a source, the Patriots are still waiting on a "serious" offer for the pick. So far, the offers they have received have been "laughable," suggesting New England is more likely to stick in the stop and take a young signal-caller to compete with veteran Jacoby Brissett this summer. USC's Caleb Williams is a near certainty to go first overall to the Bears, but the Pats are expected to be picking among LSU's Jayden Daniels, North Carolina's Drake Maye or Michigan's J.J. McCarthy if they stay at No. 3.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Kadarius Toney is still with the team and is participating in throwing sessions with quarterback Patrick Mahomes in Texas. Even though Toney was benched for the final three regular-season games and four more in the playoffs after his mistakes hurt the team earlier in the year, both general manager Brett Veach and head coach Andy Reid sound as if Toney is in their plans for 2024. "He is probably our most talented wideout now," Veach said. Along with mistakes, injuries have made it hard for Toney to stay on the field and consistent since being acquired in a trade from the Giants in 2022. The Chiefs are staying patient with the 25-year-old former first-rounder, though, especially with Rashee Rice facing a multi-week suspension for his involvement in a six-car crash.
From RotoBaller
The Cincinnati Bengals re-signed exclusive-rights free-agent quarterback Jake Browning to an undisclosed two-year deal on Tuesday on a contract through the 2025 season. Browning got his first real shot in the NFL last year with the Bengals when he was forced to replace Joe Burrow (wrist) after his season-ending injury. In his first nine games (seven starts) played in the NFL, he held his own and kept the Bengals competitive despite not making the playoffs, posting a league-best 70.4 completion percentage, 1,936 yards, 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions. The 28-year-old will return to being the primary backup to Burrow in 2024, so he won't have any real fantasy appeal unless Burrow misses time with another injury.
From RotoBaller
There remains no timetable for the return of Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Cole Holcomb (knee) after he was injured in Week 9 when chasing down Tennessee Titans receiver DeAndre Hopkins when teammate Keanu Neal collided with him. "I can tell you Cole [Holcomb's] working extremely hard to get back," general manager Omar Khan said.. "I don't really have much to add on the timeline. We've discussed this, it was a major injury but he is working hard and I'm optimistic about all the effort he's going to put into getting back on the field." The 27-year-old required season-ending surgery, and many thought it might put an end to his career. However, the former fifth-round pick of the Washington Commanders in 2019 out of North Carolina is working his way back and is hoping to play in 2024 after recording 442 tackles (270 solo) and 4.5 sacks in his first five NFL seasons over 58 games (56 starts).
The Houston Texans signed former Cleveland Browns free-agent linebacker Jacob Phillips (pectoral) to an undisclosed one-year deal on Monday, according to a source. Phillips was drafted in the third round of the 2020 NFL draft out of LSU and was with the Browns for his first four NFL seasons. However, the 25-year-old spent all of last year on Injured Reserve due to a torn pectoral muscle. It was the second straight year that he ended the season on Injured Reserve due to a pectoral injury, and Phillips has a total of 88 tackles (57 solo), three sacks, five tackles for loss and five passes defended in his three years played in the league in 20 games (eight starts). Now that Phillips appears to be past his latest pectoral injury, he'll be fighting for a roster spot out of training camp in Houston this summer.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs general manager Brett Veach and head coach Andy Reid signed contract extensions with the Chiefs Monday, April 22. Terms of the contracts were not disclosed.
From TheHuddle
Pittsburgh Steelers QB Russell Wilson, QB Justin Fields and QB Kyle Allen were added to the roster this offseason, but general manager Omar Khan is not ruling out selecting a quarterback at some point after the first round of 2024 NFL Draft since all three of the new quarterbacks are on one-year contracts.
From TheHuddle
Dynasty | Quarterback Zach Wilson has been traded to Denver along with a seventh round pick in exchange for a sixth round pick. Dynasty Analysis: The Jets and Broncos will reportedly split the $5.5 million Wilson is due this season. The former #2 overall pick is acquired for what amounts to a 53 spot draft slot-swap in the final rounds of this year's draft. It's a precipitous fall for a player who was once thought of as the savior of the franchise in New York. Denver is an interesting landing spot on paper and reports indicate they've been trying to get Wilson for weeks. The Broncos sit at #12 overall in the draft and that likely won't be high enough for Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels or even JJ McCarthy. If they stand pat and can't secure a quarterback, the room will include Wilson, Ben DiNucci and Jarrett Stidham. Could they really go into a season like this? At this point, Wilson has a little life in his dynasty value but that's subject to change later this week.
Dynasty | Former Falcons and Colts quarterback Matt Ryan is retiring from the NFL. Dynasty Analysis: Ryan spent 14 of his 15 seasons with the Falcons and was extremely effective in his time there, both in reality and fantasy. Ryan had ten straight years with at least 4,000 passing yards and could be penciled in for between 25 and 35 touchdown passes every season. A likely future Hall of Famer, Ryan ended his season with a forgettable year in Indianapolis but will be remembered as being a solid and consistent QB1 for more than a decade. He can be safely dropped from dynasty rosters if he somehow wasn't already.
University of Georgia wide receiver Ladd McConkey has seemingly been rising up draft boards since his impressive showing at the 2024 NFL Combine, and he is now favored to be a first-round pick, according to DraftKings Sportsbook's odds. DraftKings gives the 22-year-old -105 odds to be one of the first 32 players off the board. In three seasons with the Bulldogs, the speedster collected 119 receptions for 1,687 yards and 14 touchdowns and rushed 13 times for 216 yards and four scores. He also averaged 13.3 yards per punt return on 21 attempts. He's a dynamic and versatile weapon with real route-running juice, so WR-needy teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Buffalo Bills could be interested in pushing the draft button on him late in the first round on Thursday.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk has not formally requested a trade from the organization, but he is still in the thick of trade rumors this offseason. When asked whether or not the team has received calls regarding a trade for Aiyuk, General Manager John Lynch said "Sure. We receive calls for a lot of players." That's a vague answer and does not give fantasy managers clarity on the situation, but it's worth noting teams have reached out. Aiyuk posted a career-high 1,342 receiving yards and seven touchdowns last season despite ranking 28th in total targets (125). With Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Nick Bosa, and Fred Warner either on or set to receive expensive contracts, it will be a tough road to locking up Aiyuk to a long-term deal. If the team does decide to trade him, a first-round pick should be coming in return. Although Lynch has stated they would like to keep the 26-year-old, it wouldn't be shocking if he's dealt on draft night.
From RotoBaller
The New England Patriots signed free-agent tight end Mitchell Wilcox on Monday, the team announced on X. Originally undrafted out of the 2020 class, Wilcox has spent the last four years with the Cincinnati Bengals. In 48 career games, the South Florida product has hauled in 29 of his 35 targets for 211 yards and one touchdown. The Patriots re-signed Hunter Henry to a three-year, $27 million deal this offseason, so the TE1 role is occupied in Foxborough. Wilcox could have the chance to compete with Austin Hooper for the TE2 job, but Hooper is likely the favorite to back up Henry. That said, Wilcox can be ignored in fantasy football.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is entering the final year of his deal in 2024, and he and the organization have not begun contract negotiations. The former fourth-round pick in the 2016 NFL Draft threw for a career-high 36 touchdowns in 2023, but Dallas suffered another disappointing playoff defeat in the NFC Divisional Round. On his contract situation, Prescott said "I'm not trying to be the highest paid necessarily. We'll wait until the negotiations begin and obviously want to put this team in the best situation." If the 30-year-old is willing to take a home team discount, it could help his chances of reaching a new deal. Star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb and edge rusher Micah Parson will be up for new deals soon, meaning the Cowboys have a lot to figure out over the next few offseasons.
From RotoBaller
