Lineup Prep: Championship Games
Wed Jan 26 10:40am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Samuel should get plenty of work
Wow, wow, wow. That is about all you can say about last week’s game. That might have been the greatest playoff weekend ever. Needless to say, this week has a lot to live up to. Hopefully, we can at least near those games. We’ll see. Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .
Josh Allen is so special. He had a game for the ages last week and lost. He had nine touchdowns without a turnover in the Bills two playoff games, showing he can come up big in the big game. Allen is a special, special player. At this point, I’m raking him first overall in my quarterback rankings for 2022. One thing that gets overlooked with Allen is his ability to make plays with his legs, rushing for 763 yard this season. This guy is as consistent it gets at the quarterback spot and is going to be a superstar for lots of years to come.
One player that is going to be intriguing next year is Gabriel Davis. He had one of the best games ever for a receiver in the playoffs, catching eight passes for 201 yards and four touchdowns. His stock is rising in a hurry, especially with Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley possibly gone next year. Davis should start opposite Stefon Diggs in the Bills explosive passing game. I’m not sure he is going to be a consistent play but expect plenty of big games. Plus, he is a great red-zone target because of his size and strength.
I think Tom Brady returns for one more season. He had a fantastic year once again and showed few signs of slowing down - if any. The Bucs were depleted at receiver by season’s end, so I think they reload there and give Brady one more shot to win it all. A healthy Chris Godwin and a new No. 3 to replace Antonio Brown would give Brady a big-time boost.
How do the Bucs let Cooper Kupp get behind him in the waning seconds of a tie game? I could not believe that one. I know Kupp is one of the best, so you can’t ignore that. But if I’m the Bucs, I do everything in my power to keep him in front of me to prevent a big play. I could not believe the end to that game. As for Kupp, he has 100-yard games six of his last eight games. He had one of the all-time great seasons for a receiver, so it was kind of a fitting end to this game for him.
And speaking of crazy finishes. You could second guess a lot with the end to that Bills/Chiefs, seeing a ton of points scored in a short time to send that game to overtime. The big one for me is seeing the Bills kick the ball into the end zone after they gook the lead with just 13 seconds left. I make the Chiefs run it back to run some time off the clock. I think they did them a favor by kicking it deep, giving Patrick Mahomes more time to do his thing. That was my big beef with how that played out. But even with that said, it was sure exciting to watch. Wow. That was probably the best football game I ever watched.
I had a hard time picking the games last week and am feeling the same way this week. These aren’t easy decisions. I have a hard time picking against the Chiefs right now, though. I never thought they would make three straight Super Bowls, but just can’t see the Bengals going on the road and winning that one. The Chiefs are playing their best football at the right time. And over in the NFC, I am going with the 49ers. They beat the Rams twice during the regular season and think they will make it a third time. San Francisco just seems a team of destiny. Their defense is playing great and I expect the offense, mainly the running game, to play much better this week. The Rams impressed last week, but I still don’t have total faith in Matthew Stafford. Maybe he showed me last week, but I don’t think the Rams run the ball well this week and Stafford will be forced to carry the offense against a very good 49ers defense.
HOT PLAYS
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce is red hot right now, having touchdowns five straight games. He also has 100-yard games two of those weeks. Kelce has 23-plus fantasy points two straight and three of five. He is setup to find the end zone again this week against the Bengals. Cincinnati struggles to stop the tight end, allowing the sixth most fantasy points to tight ends during the regular season.
Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers. Samuel just keeps getting it done on a weekly basis. He has touchdowns three of four games. He has 20-plus fantasy points nine times this season. His rushing numbers make him a force at the receiver spot, producing as a dual threat for all his fantasy owners. Samuel had huge success in two games against the Rams this season. Samuel had 300 total yards and three touchdowns, catching nine passes. He should be heavily involved in the 49ers game plan.
COLD PLAYS
Cam Akers, RB, Rams. Akers is back and looks to be the clear lead back for the Rams. He ran the ball 24 times last week and has 41 carries in the Rams two playoff games. Unfortunately, the Rams running game isn’t opening many holes for him right now. Akers has 41 carries for just 103 yards in those two games. And things won’t get much easier for him this week against the 49ers. The 49ers held the Rams to 116-rushing yards in two games this year. Ie might be more of the same for Akers.
Elijah Mitchell, RB, 49ers. Mitchell had a breakout season, emerging as the lead back for the 49ers and having much success in that role. His lack of work in the passing game holds him back little, though, especially in games against a team that does well in holding down the run. He faces one of those teams this week, the Rams. Los Angeles held Mitchell to fewer than double-digit fantasy points in each of their games this year. Mitchell got 20-plus carries in each game but couldn’t crack double-digit points despite the work. He might be tough sledding for him again this week.
SLEEPERS
Byron Pringle, WR, Chiefs. Pringle has really emerged as a consistent threat in the Chiefs passing game. He has five receptions three straight games. And he has at least five catches four of five games. He also has three touchdowns in two playoff games this year. Patrick Mahomes has more trust in him and is looking his way a lot more often. He could be a good play again this week in a game that could be very high scoring once again.
Tyler Boyd, WR, Bengals. Boyd can disappear at times in this offense with two top weapons to compete with for targets this year. But he has still produced some big games this year. He is more than capable. He has touchdowns four of five games. He also has three games with 20-plus fantasy points. The Chiefs allowed Cole Beasley to have six receptions for 60 yards last week. Beasley plays a similar position to Boyd, so that bodes well for Boyd to have some success in this matchup.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Bengals/Chiefs, 49ers/Rams.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
- Jason Kelce joins ESPN's 'Monday Night Countdown' crew
- Browns S Rodney McLeod to retire after 2024 season
- Commanders release QB Jake Fromm
- Bills, Dolphins to meet in first 2024 Amazon Prime Video game
- 49ers sign OT Chris Hubbard
- Bills sign WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling to 1-year contract
- Oh, snap: Jets, Aaron Rodgers open on MNF again
- Cowboys, Browns and Brady featured in Week 1 matchup
- Lions award Jared Goff four-year, $212M extension
- Bucs S Antoine Winfield gets record 4-year, $84.1M extension
- Saints reach deal with veteran G Lucas Patrick
- Chiefs to open 2024 season vs. Ravens
- Former Chargers GM A.J. Smith dies at 75
- Pats coach Jerod Mayo says QB Drake Maye will 'put the work in'
- Patriots name Eliot Wolf executive VP of player personnel
- Bill Belichick gets weekly spot on ESPN's 'ManningCast'
- Broncos first-round QB Bo Nix signs rookie contract
- Cardinals, WR Zay Jones agree on one-year deal
- Aidan O'Connell is early leader in Raiders' QB competition
- It's official: Bears rookie Caleb Williams to start at QB
The Paur Report
Green Bay Packers running back MarShawn Lloyd signed his rookie deal, the organization announced on Tuesday. Lloyd, who was selected in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft, is expected to see a role in Year 1 behind Josh Jacobs in the emerging Packers' offense. Although the 23-year-old didn't have the most productive career at South Carolina and Southern California, he flashed explosiveness in 2023 with 7.1 yards per carry and 17.8 yards per reception. His 4.46 forty-yard-dash time at 220 pounds likely cemented himself as a Day 2 draft choice, and running backs taken before Round 4 are usually given a fair shot at competing for touches. He should beat out AJ Dillon at some point in 2024, making him a high-end handcuff RB for redraft leagues.
From RotoBaller
The Minnesota Vikings released veteran cornerback Joejuan Williams on Tuesday, according to NFL insider Tom Pelissero. The former Vanderbilt Commodore was a second-round pick by the New England Patriots in 2019 but has not found his footing in the NFL. Across 42 games with the Patriots, Vikings, and Bears, Williams has collected 46 tackles (32 solo), 10 pass deflections, and no interceptions. The 26-year-old signed a reserve/future contract on January 8 with the Vikings, but he is being let go after the team selected Oregon cornerback Khyree Jackson in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
From RotoBaller
The Cincinnati Bengals signed rookie third-round wide receiver Jermaine Burton and rookie fourth-round tight end Erick All to their rookie deals on Tuesday. With Joe Burrow at quarterback and Tee Higgins potentially playing his last season with the Bengals in 2024, both first-year pass-catchers are on the fantasy football radar in redraft and dynasty leagues. In Burton's final two collegiate seasons at Alabama, he caught 79 passes for 1,475 yards and 15 touchdowns. With 4.45 speed, he could act as a field stretcher and start in three-wide sets right away in Zac Taylor's offense. All, who caught 21 passes for 299 yards and three touchdowns in Iowa's lifeless offense last year, will look to push Mike Gesicki for the TE1 job in his rookie campaign.
From RotoBaller
The Washington Commanders released quarterback Jake Fromm on Tuesday, according to NFL.com. The former Georgia Bulldog was a fifth-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft by the Buffalo Bills and spent the last two seasons with Washington after a brief stint with the New York Giants. Despite being in the league for four seasons, he has thrown just 60 passes, completing 27 of them for 210 yards and one touchdown to go along with three interceptions. The Commanders signed Marcus Mariota this offseason and added rookies Jayden Daniels and Sam Hartman to their quarterback room, so Fromm became expendable. The 25-year-old is unlikely to earn playing time anytime soon barring a slew of injuries around the NFL.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett (knee) is not practicing on Tuesday, according to head coach Raheem Morris. The two-time Pro Bowl selection and one-time All-Pro suffered a torn ACL in the Week 8 loss to the Tennessee Titans last year, so he'll likely be eased into action this offseason and beyond. Jarrett has compiled three seasons of at least six sacks, but he only charted 1.5 sacks in eight games last season. Atlanta's pass rush has been an issue over the last few years, and the organization opted to draft quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 overall pick instead of a defender, so Jarrett's early-season availability and effectiveness will be key as the Falcons look to contend for a Super Bowl with Kirk Cousins under center.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Jared Goff and the Lions have agreed on a four-year contract extension. Dynasty Analysis: A relative afterthought in the Matthew Stafford trade from years ago, Goff has had a career resurgence with the Lions. He'll get $170 million guaranteed and makes him the highest paid player in franchise history. Goff is coming off a season with more than 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns, making him a reliable low-end QB1. While he offers little as a runner, Goff is about as stable as they come and makes for a solid veteran add for a dynasty team as a low-end starter or very solid QB2.
Dynasty | The Bills have signed free agent wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Dynasty Analysis: The Bills look like they're going to attack the post-Stefon Diggs era with a "WR by committee" approach that could feature the likes of Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Chase Claypool and now MVS. While Coleman remains the only blue chip player on that list, someone else is likely to emerge. Valdes-Scantling is likely no more than a roster clogger-level player moving forward but this development is enough to keep him on the dynasty radar.
Despite requesting a trade this offseason, Cincinnati Bengals star pass-rusher Trey Hendrickson confirmed his desire to play for the team in 2024 after Tuesday's offseason workout. "That's a no-brainer," Hendrickson said. "I mean, I love this team. I'm in great shape. It's good to see the guys." The three-time Pro Bowler rejoined the team this week for the voluntary offseason workout program. The 29-year-old was second in the NFL in sacks in 2023 with 17.5 and initially asked to be traded when the Bengals didn't reward him with a long-term contract extension. Contract issues aside, Hendrickson has been one of the league's best edge rushers since he was signed by Cincy in 2021 on a four-year deal worth $60 million. He has 40.5 total sacks in that time, the fifth-highest total in the NFL.
From RotoBaller
The back-to-back Super Bowl-champion Kansas City Chiefs will begin their attempt for the first-ever three-peat in 2024 when they host the Baltimore Ravens in the league's annual prime-time season opener, which will be played on Thursday, Sept. 5. It will be a rematch of last year's AFC Championship, which the Chiefs won 17-10 before beating the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII. The Chiefs will then face the Cincinnati Bengals at Arrowhead in Week 2. The Week 1 matchup against Baltimore features two of the game's top QBs in Patrick Mahomes, the Super Bowl MVP the last two years, and Lamar Jackson, the reigning NFL MVP. Mahomes has gone 4-1 in the matchup against Jackson, including in the playoffs. KC has opened as a 2.5-point favorite and are 2-1 in the NFL kickoff game since it was introduced in 2002.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons running backs Bijan Robinson (ankle) and Jase McClellan (foot) were not at practice on Tuesday at organized team activities. It's notable, but shouldn't affect Robinson's 2024 fantasy draft stock. The 22-year-old former first-rounder is expected to be back on the field for the team's mandatory minicamp. As long as Robinson's ankle isn't bothering him once he returns to practice, it should be a non-factor by the time the 2024 regular season begins. Now that quarterback Kirk Cousins is in town, Robinson will be even more attractive as a high-end RB1 in fantasy. The former eighth overall pick in 2023 out of Texas is a do-it-all back that had 976 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 214 rushing attempts in his rookie season, adding 58 receptions for 487 yards and another four TDs in 17 games (16 starts) in 2023.
From RotoBaller
The Buffalo Bills signed veteran wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling to a one-year deal worth up to $4.5 million on Tuesday, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. MVS is no stranger to playing with elite quarterbacks between his time with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay and Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City, and he'll now be in line to catch passes from Josh Allen in Buffalo. The 2018 fifth-round pick out of South Florida has not posted monster fantasy football numbers, but he has spike-week upside thanks to his field-stretching speed. That said, he's likely going to be more useful in "real life" compared to fantasy football based on his production profile thus far. In six NFL seasons, the 29-year-old has not eclipsed 690 yards or six touchdowns in a single season. Last year, he caught just 21 passes for 315 yards and one touchdown in 16 games. He's an interesting late-round flyer in best ball formats, but he might be a wasted roster spot in traditional leagues. MVS will compete with Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel for snaps in 2024, as second-round rookie Keon Coleman should be a locked-in starter.
From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos signed free-agent wide receiver Phillip Dorsett and cornerback Quinton Newsome to undisclosed deals on Monday, according to the team. In corresponding moves, the Broncos waived punter Nik Constantinou and receiver Lincoln Victor. Dorsett was released by Denver last Friday after initially signing with the team's practice squad before the 2023 season. The 31-year-old former 29th overall pick by the Indianapolis Colts in 2015 out of Miami was elevated just twice during the regular season last year and was unable to reel in any of his three targets. In his eight NFL seasons, Dorsett has a total of 151 catches for 2,001 yards and 12 touchdowns in 94 games (20 starts). He'll serve as receiver depth for the Broncos this summer behind Courtland Sutton, Josh Reynolds, Marvin Mims Jr., rookie Troy Franklin and Tim Patrick.
From RotoBaller
According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, free-agent wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling made a stop in Buffalo on Monday night. The wideout had a recent visit with the Chargers, although it appears nothing came of it. MVS hasn't been productive in years, and he finished the 2023-24 campaign by recording career lows in catches (21), receiving yards (315), and touchdowns (one). However, the Bills moved on from Stefon Diggs this offseason, so Valdes-Scantling could work his way up the depth chart. Yet, he'll need to prove his value to fantasy managers no matter where he signs, which won't come until he has at least a few decent performances.
From RotoBaller
Updating a previous report, Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff's four-year deal includes an option in the fourth year, per source on Monday, May 13.
From TheHuddle
Free-agent WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Chiefs) is meeting with the Buffalo Bills Monday, May 13, according to a source.
From TheHuddle
The Denver Broncos continued voluntary offseason workouts on Monday. However, the team remains without wide receiver Courtland Sutton, who continues to work out at his residence in Florida. The veteran has two years left on a four-year, $60 million extension, but has made it clear he wants a raise. He also requested a trade, although the team is apparently not looking to move him. Of course, there will be updates on the situation moving ahead. Yet, it won't be as much of a concern until the summer when Denver begins training camp. With that said, several teams will monitor things, especially with Sutton coming off a massive year, which included a career-high 10 touchdowns. But if he stays with the Broncos, his fantasy outlook is directly related to how Bo Nix and Zach Wilson look heading into the 2024-25 campaign.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent WR Phillip Dorsett (Broncos) signed with the Denver Broncos Monday, May 13. The team also signed undrafted free-agent CB Quinton Newsome (Nebraska). Terms of the contracts were not disclosed.
From TheHuddle
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff agreed to a four-year $212 million contract extension that includes $170 million guaranteed, according to NFL insider Ari Meirov. Lions general manager Brad Holmes said the two sides were working on an extension last week, and they evidently worked quickly and got the deal done. The 2016 No. 1 overall pick by the Los Angeles Rams has been fantastic since being dealt to Detroit along with draft picks for Matthew Stafford. He led Detroit to a playoff win for the first time since 1991 last year, and he's posted 12,258 yards, 78 touchdowns, and 27 interceptions through his first 48 games with the organization. He's now under contract through the 2028 season and will remain a fringe QB1 option in fantasy football as long as his offensive weapons remain on the roster. Given his job security and upside in Detroit's offense, he should be viewed as a strong dynasty QB2 in Superflex formats.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff agreed to terms on a four-year contract extension with the Lions Monday, May 13, worth $212 million, according to sources. The deal includes $170 million in guaranteed money.
Fantasy Spin: Goff will be the starting quarterback for the Lions for the foreseeable future and is coming off a terrific 2023 season. He could be a possible low-end No. 1 fantasy quarterback in deeper leagues but probably will be a No. 2 quarterback in most standard leagues that can also be a starting option against favorable matchups.
From TheHuddle
Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson was spotted at voluntary offseason activities on Monday despite his recent request to be traded. It's a notable development considering the practices and workouts are entirely voluntary, but it's too early to assume it means he wants to remain with the team if he does not receive a new contract. The 2017 third-round pick by the New Orleans Saints had a monster season in 2023, racking up a Bengals' franchise record 17.5 sacks. He is the 11th-highest-paid edge rusher (average salary) and is entering the final year of his four-year, $60 million contract he signed as a free agent in 2021. The 29-year-old's situation will be worth monitoring this offseason, as there will likely be no shortage of interested suitors if the team is willing to listen to offers. With quarterback Joe Burrow already signed to a $275 million contract, and wide receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins seeking a new deals, Hendrickson may be expendable.
From RotoBaller
