Lineup Prep: Week 13
Wed Nov 30 10:13am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Lawrence is playing at high level
It is crunch time for a lot of fantasy owners. We are nearing the end of the regular season in many formats, so all these upcoming games are so crucial to a lot of fantasy owners. Hopefully, your roster is in good shape and ready to make a run in the playoffs. It should be a fun finish to the season.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
To me, it really looks like the light has come on for Trevor Lawrence. He had maybe his best game as a pro last week, leading his team to an exciting victory with time running out. Confidence goes a long way and it sure seems Lawrence is brimming with that right now. And if you look at this schedule, Lawrence fantasy owners should be brimming with confidence as well. He has games against the Lions, Titans the next two and championship week has him against the Texans. Lawrence could be a difference maker in this year’s fantasy playoffs.
It is never too early to start planning ahead. So if you stream defenses or kickers, start looking at the teams with the best playoff schedules and plan accordingly. You might have extra room on your roster to start stashing players/teams with good schedules for the playoffs. A proactive owners is a winning owner.
The tight end position seems like a dart throw every week outside of Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. This position has been a tough one this year. Some guys have played well at times, but the consistency has not been there. I’m going to be anxious to see the numbers after the season of championship teams that owned Kelce. I have a feeling it is going to be pretty high with the season he is having and the huge disparity between him and the rest of the tight ends.
Austin Ekeler is first overall in fantasy running back scoring and has run for just 554 yards. He has fewer than seven carries two of his last three games. That doesn’t mean a whole lot when you are posting reception numbers better than nearly every player in the league, including receivers. Ekeler has 80 catches on the year, including three games with double-digit receptions. He is so consistent because of his reception totals. Plus, he finds the end zone often on a team that puts up a lot of points. Ekeler might be the perfect fantasy back because of the way he accumulates his points. He is so safe for fantasy teams.
I know I have spoken about him before, but I can’t get over the season Geno Smith is having. This really came out of nowhere. It is crazy to think how good he has been this year. He is sixth overall in fantasy quarterback scoring. He has multiple touchdowns five straight games and all but two this year. He had his third 300-yard game last week. And he has 20-plus fantasy points four straight. Smit has been so consistent all season, which is all you can ask for as a fantasy owner. I didn’t know if he could sustain his play all year, but I’m a believer. He is a legit QB1 and top-10 fantasy quarterback.
Smith has been a huge surprise in a good way at the quarterback spot, but Matt Ryan is the exact opposite. I had high hopes for him this year in Indy, but he looks awful right now. Ryan seems to be bracing for a hit every time he drops back to pass. And he rarely attempts a pass more than 10 yards. I didn’t think he would fall this far so quickly. I expected him to be a good stopgap for the Colts and play near the Philip Rivers level for the team. Well, that hasn’t been the case at all. Ryan has been a huge disappointment for me.
News and Notes: The Chiefs signed running back Melvin Gordon to their practice squad. Gordon has the potential to eventually earn some playing time with his new team. . . . .The Bears signed safety Adrian Colbert on Tuesday. The veteran gives the team some much needed depth at the position after the injury to starter Eddie Jackson.
HOT PLAY
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars. Lawrence is playing the best football of his career right now. He is fifth in fantasy quarterback scoring his last three and ninth overall. He has 20-plus fantasy points three straight and five of six games. He scored a season-high 29.2 fantasy points last week, throwing for 321 yards and three scores. He can keep his hot ways this week against the Lions. Detroit allows the most fantasy points to quarterbacks and rank 29th overall against the pass.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders. Jacobs is now second overall in fantasy running back scoring after his huge game last week. He topped 300 total yards and had maybe the best game of the entire season for any running back. Jacobs is a set it and forget it fantasy play. He has four games with 30-plus fantasy points. Jacobs could have another one of his huge games this week against a bad Chargers run defense. Los Angeles aloes the fifth most fantasy points to running backs and 28th overall against the run.
Treylon Burks, WR, Titans. Burks is quickly emerging as an elite receiver. He is growing on a weekly basis and has 70-plus yards each of his last two games. He has 17-plus fantasy points each of those games. Burks is almost a low-end WR1 with Ryan Tannehill back in the lineup and throwing him passes. He gets a tough matchup this week against the Eagles, but remains a good play for fantasy teams. The Titans are going to need to score some points and could be playing from behind, so look for Burks to get plenty of work in this one. Don’t be scared to use him because of the tough matchup.
David Montgomery, RB, Bears. Montgomery has played well since getting the bulk of the carries with Khalil Herbert out of the lineup. He has 100-plus total yards each of his last two games. And he has topped 14 fantasy points each of those games. He is a low-end No. 1 fantasy back in his current role. Montgomery plays the Packers, a team he had his only 100-yard rushing performance against this year in Week 2. The Packers are just 31st against the run, allowing 154.8-rushing yards per game.
George Pickens, WR, Steelers. Pickens is another young receiver coming into his own. He has been rock solid with Kenny Pickett as his starting quarterback. He has double-digit fantasy points three straight and four of five games. He has a knack for the acrobatic catch every week, showing his big-tie ability. He can hit double-digit fantasy points once again this week against the Falcons, a team that allows the third most fantasy points to receivers and are 28th overall against the pass.
COLD PLAYS
Demarcus Robinson, WR, Ravens. Robinson has showing flashes of big things lately, having 12-plus fantasy points two of four games. He also has disappeared at times, catching just a pass for 17 yards last week. He is a hit or miss fantasy play. Look for a miss this week. Robinson has a really tough matchup against a very good Broncos defense. Denver allows the second fewest fantasy points to receivers and are third overall against the pass.
Michael Pittman, WR, Colts. Pittman has produced despite getting poor quarterback play. He has double-digit fantasy points three straight games. He was targeted 11 times last week, giving him double-digit targets three games. He has put up a few stinkers, though, having fewer than 6.5 fantasy points two games. He is a tough player to bench but this might be a week to consider it. Pittman plays the Cowboys, a team that is first overall against the pass. Dallas allows just 177.7-passing yards per game.
Mac Jones, QB, Patriots. Jones played his best game of the season last week, throwing for 382 yards and two touchdowns. That was against a really bad Vikings secondary, though. Remember, Jones had fewer than 15 fantasy points three straight games before last week. He has some potential going forward, but is likely a matchup play. Jones gets the Bills in Week 13, a team that allows the eighth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Bills have allowed just 14-passing touchdowns and have 13 interceptions, which leads the league. This is not a week to use Jones.
Jeff Wilson, RB, Dolphins. Wilson had his worst game as a Dolphin last week, rushing 13 times for just 39 yards. He did find the end zone, which saved his fantasy day. It would not surprise to see him struggle this week, though. Wilson gets his old team, the 49ers. San Francisco allows the second fewest fantasy points to running backs and the fewest rushing yards in football. Wilson might be a player to consider benching despite his strong play since joining the Dolphins.
Devin Singletary, RB, Bills. Singletary played well last week but didn’t hit double-digit fantasy points despite rushing 14 times for 72 yards. He continues to get little work in the passing game, having just four catches his last three games. His lack of work in the passing game really hurts his fantasy ceiling. He might not find much room to run this week, which is a concern for his fantasy value. He has a tough matchup, playing the Patriots. New England allows the fewest fantasy points to running backs.
SLEEPERS
Kyren Williams, RB, Rams. Williams is emerging in the Rams backfield and could be the starter the rest of the way. He played a season high 70 percent of the snaps last week. He had 14 touches for 60 yards. The Rams are a mess right now, but Williams still has fantasy value. He can help fantasy teams as a flex play, especially this week against the Seahawks. Seattle allows the third most fantasy points to running backs and are 29th overall against the run.
Olamide Zaccheaus, WR, Falcons. Zaccheaus had his best game of the season last week, catching five passes for 91 yards on eight targets. This wasn’t his first good fantasy game, though, having three games with double-digit fantasy points. He has produced at times. And his chances could be rising now with Kyle Pitts out of the lineup. Zaccheaus could be worth a flier this week against the Steelers, a team that allows the most fantasy points to receivers on the season.
Juwan Johnson, TE, Saints. Johnson was a bust last week, failing to catch a pass on just two targets. He was playing great before that, though, having at least 12 fantasy points three straight games. He has become a big part of the passing game despite last week. Look for a rebound game this week against the Bucs. Tampa allows the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends. And earlier this year, Johnson tied a season high with seven targets against the Bucs in Week 2.
Mike White, QB, Jets. White was tremendous in his first start of the year, going 22-of-28 for 315 yards and three touchdowns against a pretty good Bears pass defense. He made good decisions and was decisive with the football. He has shown a knack for the big game throughout his career when getting a chance to start. He might have another good showing this week against the Vikings. Minnesota has struggled against the pass much of the year and allow the fifth most fantasy points to quarterbacks. If you are looking for a streaming option in Week 13, White is worth consideration.
Kendall Hinton, WR, Broncos. Hinton has at least three catches three straight games and at least 8.7 fantasy points each of those games. His numbers aren’t off the charts, but he is getting the looks and producing some. He also is on the field a ton, which is encouraging. He has played at least 88 percent of the snaps three straight games. We think he can hit double-digit fantasy points this week against a bad Ravens secondary. Baltimore allows the sixth most fantasy points to receivers and are 27th overall against the pass.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Jaguars/Lions, Dolphins/49ers, Chiefs/Bengals, Chargers/Raiders.
Low Scoring Games: Packers/Bears, Commanders/Giants, Broncos/Ravens.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
- Saints reach deal with veteran G Lucas Patrick
- Chiefs to open 2024 season vs. Ravens
- Former Chargers GM A.J. Smith dies at 75
- Pats coach Jerod Mayo says QB Drake Maye will 'put the work in'
- Patriots name Eliot Wolf executive VP of player personnel
- Bill Belichick gets weekly spot on ESPN's 'ManningCast'
- Broncos first-round QB Bo Nix signs rookie contract
- Cardinals, WR Zay Jones agree on one-year deal
- Aidan O'Connell is early leader in Raiders' QB competition
- It's official: Bears rookie Caleb Williams to start at QB
- Giants sign first-round pick Malik Nabers to reported $29.2M deal
- Coach Dan Campbell to miss Lions' rookie minicamp
- Raiders sign first-round pick Brock Bowers, others
- Saints sign first-round OT Taliese Fuaga to $17.3M deal
- Pro Football Hall of Fame CB Jimmy Johnson dies at 86
- Rams releasing veteran WR Ben Skowronek
- Lions GM: QB Jared Goff 'earned' extension, a high priority
- Giants sign WR Allen Robinson
- NFL to release 2024 schedule on May 15
- Broncos release QB Ben DiNucci
The Paur Report
Dynasty | The Cardinals have signed wide receiver Zay Jones. Dynasty Analysis: Jones has had some nice moments over his seven seasons in Buffalo, Las Vegas, and Jacksonville, though he's never posted more than 823 receiving yards or seven touchdowns in any given season. Jones could be viable opposite Marvin Harrison, Jr. if he can beat out Michael Wilson but that's no given. At this point, Jones looks like a roster worthy player but a potential roster clogger at the same time.
Carolina Panthers rookie tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders said his goal in the NFL is to be as good as former All-Pro Greg Olsen. Sanders, a converted receiver at Texas, averaged 49.5 catches a year with the Longhorns with an average of 648 yards and 3.5 touchdowns. His role with the Panthers is not clear yet, but head coach Dave Canales said on Saturday that Sanders will play both the "F" and the "Y" roles, dependent on pass plays versus 12 personnel. "He's a guy, you can move around a little bit more, maybe play him in the slot a little bit," Canales said, adding, "we look for those versatile type of tight ends." The 21-year-old was taken with the 101st overall pick in the fourth round this year but could immediately become the team's best pass-catching tight end over both Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas. Still, fantasy managers in single-year leagues in 2024 should temper expectations for Sanders in Carolina's offense.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots first-year head coach Jerod Mayo said that rookie quarterback Drake May, who was taken third overall in last month's NFL draft, "has a lot to work on." Saturday's practice featured a heavy emphasis on footwork fundamentals, with Maye spending the first few periods of practice taking snaps directly under center instead of the shotgun, which he mostly used the last two years at North Carolina. "The guy can sling it, man," said wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk, the second-round pick from the University of Washington. "He's very confident. He's a leader, very vocal; he's setting the tone in practice, trying to get guys moving around and operating at a high level." Maye is expected to compete with veteran Jacoby Brissett for starting duties in 2024. The Patriots aren't going to rush Maye's development, so he's more of a dynasty/keeper asset in fantasy this year than a redraft one.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton said he liked what he saw from rookie quarterback Bo Nix during practices at the team's rookie minicamp over the weekend. "He had two or three down the field throws [Saturday]," Payton said. "It's almost like watching a good golfer when you watch his game ... there's a patience to how he plays, the ball comes out." The Broncos took Nix 12th overall, which many thought was a massive reach, and hope he will become their next franchise signal-caller. With only Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson to compete with, Nix has a clear path to the starting job right away in his first season in the NFL, but the Broncos aren't getting ahead of themselves. "We'll figure it out, we'll figure it out ... We'll have a rotation and we'll go from there," Payton said when asked how the team's QB competition will unfold in the weeks ahead.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent tight end Tommy Sweeney signed an undisclosed deal with the Chicago Bears on Sunday after a tryout at their rookie minicamp, according to a source. Sweeney was with the New York Giants most of last year but sat out after he collapsed and had a "medical event" on the practice field. The 28-year-old was originally drafted in the seventh round (228th overall) by the Buffalo Bills in 2019 out of Boston College. All three of his NFL seasons came with Buffalo, and Sweeney has caught a total of 18 passes for 165 yards and one touchdown on 26 targets in just 24 games played (four starts). Sweeney will be competing for a roster spot in training camp this summer among a tight end group in Chicago that already includes Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett, Stephen Carlson and rookie Brenden Bates.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy said the team will use a running back by committee approach this season, unlike the feature back approach used during RB Ezekiel Elliott's first tour of duty with the team. McCarthy said that he has not seen any drop off in the way Elliott moves but thinks it wouldn't be fair to give him a workload similar to what he saw in the early seasons of his career.
Fantasy Spin: Elliott had the least productive season of his career with New England in 2023, with career lows in carries (184), rushing yards (642), touchdowns (three) and yards per carry (3.5). Although he is expected to have a larger role in the Dallas offense in 2024, his days as an RB1 fantasy option are likely over. Elliott is most likely to see the field in short-yardage and goal line situations, making him worthy of consideration as an RB3 in many fantasy leagues. RBs Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn are behind Elliott on the Cowboys' depth chart but their fantasy value remains uncertain, as it remains to be seen how many offensive snaps they will see in a typical game.
From TheHuddle
Free-agent linebacker Bud Dupree has reportedly signed a two-year deal with the Los Angeles Chargers. Dupree met with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Atlanta Falcons in addition to the Chargers. The 31-year-old has played with both the Steelers and Falcons during his career so it appears Dupree was looking for a new home. The veteran linebacker still has something left in the tank. He recorded 6.5 sacks last season with Atlanta. Those 6.5 sacks were the most for Dupree since the 2020 season. His addition should be a solid boost for this defensive unit heading into next season.
From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos have released wide receiver Phillip Dorsett. The veteran wideout was already a longshot to make the roster. The 31-year-old joined the Broncos last season and failed to make a catch during his two appearances. Dorsett has bounced around quite a bit throughout his time in the league. Dorsett is viewed more as a depth option than an actual impact player on a roster. He could sign elsewhere before the season starts, but his chances of having fantasy value are low.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent wide receiver Albert Wilson has decided to retire from professional football after seven seasons. Wilson joined the Kansas City Chiefs as an undrafted free agent ahead of the 2014 season. He spent four seasons with the Chiefs, and Wilson achieved a career-high 554 receiving yards during his final season with the team. After that, Wilson joined the Miami Dolphins for the next three seasons. He was fairly lackluster during his time with the Dolphins. He bounced around with the Raiders and Vikings but hasn't seen the field since the 2021 season. Wilson will finish his career with 218 receptions, 2,499 yards, and 12 touchdowns.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice is under investigation in relation to a night club assault,. Dynasty Analysis: An adventurous off-season continues for Rice, who already has a massive legal problem in relation to a street racing incident. This new investigation is looking like it's going to take some time to unravel but it's clear a suspension (and possibly a lengthy one) is coming sooner rather than later. Rice is a hold for now as his value is clearly in flux.
Dynasty | The Cowboys have released wide receiver Martavis Bryant. Dynasty Analysis: Marty B will likely attempt to resume his comeback with another team as Dallas just couldn't hold on to him. Bryant was once a highly regarded dynasty asset but suspensions derailed his career before it could really even get going. Bryant will look to latch on elsewhere but it's hard to see him being a worthwhile dynasty pickup until he makes a final roster.
Dynasty | The Giants have signed wide receiver Allen Robinson. Dynasty Analysis: Robinson had a 102/1,250/6 season for the Bears in 2020 but has fallen off the face of the earth since with just over 1,000 receiving yards and a total of four touchdowns in the three years since, including stops with Chicago, Los Angeles and Pittsburgh. Robinson is a fringe roster candidate at best at this point and while he has a chance to re-emerge in New York, don't hold your breath.
Free-agent DE Bud Dupree (Falcons) agreed to a two-year deal worth $6 million with a total value of $10 million with the Los Angeles Chargers, according to sources Saturday, May 11.
From TheHuddle
Free-agent wide receiver Jarvis Landry spent an hour running around catching passes as a tryout player at the Jacksonville Jaguars' rookie minicamp on Friday. Landry was one of the league's top receivers in the first seven years of his career, making five Pro Bowls with the Dolphins and Browns. He led the NFL in catches in 2017 with 112 and had three 1,000-yard seasons in that span. But Landry only played in 12 games in 2021 with Cleveland due to a knee sprain, and he had a career-low in catches (52) and receiving yards (570). He played in just nine games with the Saints in 2022 due to an ankle injury and sat out in 2023. Landry looked healthy on Friday and was pleased with his workout, but it remains to be seen if the Jags will add him as receiver depth in addition to Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis and first-round rookie Brian Thomas.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels didn't have any "wow" moments during his first rookie minicamp practice, but he still managed to impress fellow rookies and the coaching staff. "He's a stud," third-round receiver Luke McCaffrey said. "I know he's one heck of a quarterback and a lot of fun to play with from a personality standpoint. I've had a blast in these 24 hours with him. He's just fun to be around; he's good energy." Daniels was the No. 2 overall pick in last year's NFL draft and is expected to take over as the team's starter under center right away in Week 1 this fall. The 23-year-old former LSU Tiger is a dual-threat QB with plenty of athleticism, and he could be the most NFL-ready signal-caller of all the rookie QBs not named Caleb Williams. In Year 1, Daniels will be a low-end QB2 in fantasy with considerable upside for his rushing ability.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers rookie first-round wide receiver Xavier Legette, who was taken 32nd overall in this year's NFL draft last month, has had trouble connecting with the team's rookie quarterbacks so far in rookie minicamp practices. Legette has always had the size-speed combination -- his 4.39-second 40-yard dash tied for the sixth-fastest among wideouts at this year's scouting combine -- but he kept hearing that he had to improve as a route-runner as he took part in Senior Bowl practices and the combine. At 6-foot-1, 221 pounds, some questioned Legette's ability to drop his hips and quickly get out of his breaks. Legette has been compared physically to DK Metcalf, who Panthers head coach Dave Canales worked with in Seattle. At the very least, Legette will give second-year QB Bryce Young a speed, big-bodied target deep down the field in 2024, but expecting much more than that might be unwise in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders head coach Dan Quinn said that second-round rookie defensive tackle Jer'Zhan Newton (foot) has an injury to his left foot -- not the same foot as his college season but the same injury -- and has surgery scheduled for next week. "Not giving any timelines for that," Quinn said. The 21-year-old had surgery in January on his right foot to fix a partial Jones fracture, but now he'll be forced to undergo a similar surgery on his other foot. It's not what you want to hear from a high draft pick as they head into their first NFL offseason. It remains to be seen when Newton will be able to practice with the team. Any missed time in training camp this summer would be a big blow to his development as he looks to carve out a role on the interior of Washington's defensive line in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears rookie first-round wide receiver Rome Odunze (hamstring) is dealing with hamstring tightness and will sit out of Saturday's rookie minicamp practice. It's likely nothing to worry about in the long run, but it's also not a great start for Odunze as he looks to get going as a top-10 pick in this year's NFL draft. It's something to keep an eye on with the 21-year-old from Washington as we get deeper into the offseason and closer to training camp. The Bears took Odunze at No. 9 overall to give rookie quarterback Caleb Williams more weapons in the passing attack in addition to established veterans DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. Odunze was extremely productive in college and is ultra-athletic on the football field, but it's going to be tough for him to produce consistent numbers in Chicago's offense in his rookie season as long as both Moore and Allen stay healthy.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent WR Albert Wilson (Raiders) announced his retirement in a post on his Instagram account Friday, May 10.
From TheHuddle
The Atlanta Falcons signed free-agent DE Bradlee Anae (Jets) and free-agent S Dane Cruikshank (Titans) Saturday, May 11. Both players had tried out for the club Friday, May 10.
From TheHuddle
