Lineup Prep: Championship Games
Wed Jan 25 10:06am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Smith can keep up his hot ways
Let’s hope the games are a little better this weekend. For the most part, the games were’t crazy competitive last weekend like you had hoped. On paper, it sure seems these Championship games will be good, though. Here is to hoping it plays out that way.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .
The big story for the Bengals last week was their offensive line. With several starters out, the backups had a tall task to try to contain the Bills defensive line. Well, the Bengals actually dominated the game along the line on both sides of the ball. The backups for the Bengals more than held their own, leading to the dominating win for the Bengals. It seems like the concerns for the line might have been a little overblown. Cincinnati is sure riding a lot of momentum into this game with the Chiefs, making it hard to bet against them.
Brock Purdy looked a little shaky for the first time since taking over as the starter for the 49ers. He made a few bad decisions, including some time management issues at the end of the first half that almost cost his team three points. I am a little worried about him on the road this week against a very good Eagles defense. Maybe he will keep proving everyone wrong, but I think he comes back down to earth a little. I like the Eagles to win and advance to the Super Bowl.
It is good news for Mac Jones getting Bill O’Brien as his offensive coordinator for next season. The two worked together at Alabama, so expect the offense to suit Jones’ talents very well in 2023. Jones could have his best season to date if the Patriots add some more talent at receiver this offseason.
So I haven’t completely given up on Russell Wilson. I think he could be a good buy-low risk next season. He showed some signs of life after Nathaniel Hackett was fired late in the year. The Broncos certainly have a lot of talent offensively, so with the right system in place for Wilson, I think he can still produce. Just something to keep in mind this offseason. You are likely to get Wilson at a really good price after his disastrous first season in Denver.
There is talk that Aaron Rodgers cool be moved this offseason if he decides to play another year. I’m a little intrigued by that. I think a new team with some top options to work with at receiver could rejuvenate Rodgers some. I hate to see him wear something other than a Green Bay uniform, but from a fantasy perspective, a move could be a real positive for his value.
I know the Ravens keep saying they aren’t going to let Lamar Jackson go, but I’m not so sure. It was a really strange finish to his season, looking like both parties might be a little at odds with each other. I’m not completely sold on a return to Baltimore for Jackson. I really think a move to Atlanta would be great. That offense could be something else with Jackson running the show.
News and Notes: The Patriots hired Bill O’Brien to take over their offensive coordinator duties. O’Brien should be a huge upgrade over this past season for the entire Patriots offense.
HOT PLAYS
George Kittle, TE, 49ers. Kittle is the guy that rookie Brock Purdy leans on in the passing game when he is feeling pressured. That really showed last week with Kittle catching five passes for 95 yards. Kittle has at least 12 fantasy points five of six games. He has finished the season really well and should keep it going this week against the Eagles. Kittle can rack up the targets in this one.
Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals. Higgins has been a little quiet in the playoffs, having two straight game with fewer than 40 yards. Don’t give up on him, though, especially if the Chiefs focus on trying to slow Ja’Marr Chase. This could create more favorable matchups for Higgins. Higgins scored a touchdown against the Chiefs in Week 13. Plus, Kansas City allowed the eighth most fantasy points to receiver during the regular season.
DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles. Smith had six catches last week and has at least six catches four straight games. He has at least five receptions seven straight. Smith is getting a ton of weekly work in the Eagles offense. A.J. Brown is considered the No. 1 receiver for the Eagles, but hasn’t gotten the looks as Smith in recent weeks. It could be more of the same for Smith this week against the 49ers. He matches up well in this one, getting looks in the screen game and on short-yardage routes. San Francisco had all sorts of issues containing CeeDee Lamb last week. And this has been a bit of a trend, allowing the sixth most fantasy points to receivers during the regular season.
COLD PLAYS
Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles. Sanders played well last week, rushing 17 times for 90 yards. He wasn’t much of a help to fantasy teams, though, scoring just nine fantasy points. He didn’t catch a pass in the game, which really hurt his fantasy numbers. He has not reached double-digit fantasy options five straight games. He is a little hard to trust right now, especially this week against the 49ers. San Francisco allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs during the regular season and ranked second overall against the run.
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Chiefs. McKinnon has come back down to earth a little after his red-hot play down the stretch. He ran 11 times for just 25 yards last week and didn’t catch a pass in the game. He has less than double-digit fantasy points two straight. McKinnon has the potential for the big game in this offense, but is a little hard to have faith in after his last two. Plus, the Bengals allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points to running backs during the regular season.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. Aiyuk had two catches for just 26 yards on four targets last week. He has five or fewer targets three straight. And he has fewer than double-digit fantasy points two of those games. He has enjoyed a fine season but been a little up and down, mainly being down in recent weeks. It would not surprise to see him down again this week against the Eagles. Philadelphia is first overall against the pass this year, allowing just 179.8-passing yards per game.
SLEEPERS
Tyler Boyd, WR, Bengals. Boyd has been inconsistent this year as the Bengals as their No. 3 receiver, but it isn’t for a lack of playing time. He is on the field a lot, so the chances are always there for a big game from Boyd in this explosive passing game. It would not surprise if this was a week for Boyd to produce well. He had four catches for 60 yards against the Chiefs earlier in the year. And Kansas City has struggled to stop fantasy receivers much of the year, allowing the seventh most fantasy points. Don’t forget about Boyd in this offense.
Elijah Mitchell, RB, 49ers. Mitchell actually led the 49ers in carries last week, rushing 14 times for 51 yards. Christian McCaffrey is battling a calf injury, which could give Mitchell a few more chances. He also has double-digit fantasy points two of three games. The 49ers are going to run a lot in this matchup with the Eagles, so look for Mitchell to produce a solid game, getting double-digit touches.
Marques Valdes-Scantling, WR, Chiefs. Valdes-Scantling had just a catch last week but it was for a touchdown. He is losing snaps to Kadarius Toney but still on a the field a decent amount. He has six or more target two of three games. And he has played at least 50 percent of the snaps three straight. He is a boom or bust play, but more than capable of the big play in this offense. He could break one in this matchup, especially with the Bengals focusing on shutting down Travis Kelce in the passing game.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Bengals/Chiefs.
Low Scoring Games: 49ers/Eagles.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Free-agent linebacker Bud Dupree has reportedly signed a two-year deal with the Los Angeles Chargers. Dupree met with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Atlanta Falcons in addition to the Chargers. The 31-year-old has played with both the Steelers and Falcons during his career so it appears Dupree was looking for a new home. The veteran linebacker still has something left in the tank. He recorded 6.5 sacks last season with Atlanta. Those 6.5 sacks were the most for Dupree since the 2020 season. His addition should be a solid boost for this defensive unit heading into next season.
From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos have released wide receiver Phillip Dorsett. The veteran wideout was already a longshot to make the roster. The 31-year-old joined the Broncos last season and failed to make a catch during his two appearances. Dorsett has bounced around quite a bit throughout his time in the league. Dorsett is viewed more as a depth option than an actual impact player on a roster. He could sign elsewhere before the season starts, but his chances of having fantasy value are low.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent wide receiver Albert Wilson has decided to retire from professional football after seven seasons. Wilson joined the Kansas City Chiefs as an undrafted free agent ahead of the 2014 season. He spent four seasons with the Chiefs, and Wilson achieved a career-high 554 receiving yards during his final season with the team. After that, Wilson joined the Miami Dolphins for the next three seasons. He was fairly lackluster during his time with the Dolphins. He bounced around with the Raiders and Vikings but hasn't seen the field since the 2021 season. Wilson will finish his career with 218 receptions, 2,499 yards, and 12 touchdowns.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice is under investigation in relation to a night club assault,. Dynasty Analysis: An adventurous off-season continues for Rice, who already has a massive legal problem in relation to a street racing incident. This new investigation is looking like it's going to take some time to unravel but it's clear a suspension (and possibly a lengthy one) is coming sooner rather than later. Rice is a hold for now as his value is clearly in flux.
Dynasty | The Cowboys have released wide receiver Martavis Bryant. Dynasty Analysis: Marty B will likely attempt to resume his comeback with another team as Dallas just couldn't hold on to him. Bryant was once a highly regarded dynasty asset but suspensions derailed his career before it could really even get going. Bryant will look to latch on elsewhere but it's hard to see him being a worthwhile dynasty pickup until he makes a final roster.
Dynasty | The Giants have signed wide receiver Allen Robinson. Dynasty Analysis: Robinson had a 102/1,250/6 season for the Bears in 2020 but has fallen off the face of the earth since with just over 1,000 receiving yards and a total of four touchdowns in the three years since, including stops with Chicago, Los Angeles and Pittsburgh. Robinson is a fringe roster candidate at best at this point and while he has a chance to re-emerge in New York, don't hold your breath.
Dynasty | The Cardinals have signed wide receiver Zay Jones. Dynasty Analysis: Jones has had some nice moments over his seven seasons in Buffalo, Las Vegas, and Jacksonville, though he's never posted more than 823 receiving yards or seven touchdowns in any given season. Jones could be viable opposite Marvin Harrison, Jr. if he can beat out Michael Wilson but that's no given. At this point, Jones looks like a roster worthy player but a potential roster clogger at the same time.
Free-agent wide receiver Jarvis Landry spent an hour running around catching passes as a tryout player at the Jacksonville Jaguars' rookie minicamp on Friday. Landry was one of the league's top receivers in the first seven years of his career, making five Pro Bowls with the Dolphins and Browns. He led the NFL in catches in 2017 with 112 and had three 1,000-yard seasons in that span. But Landry only played in 12 games in 2021 with Cleveland due to a knee sprain, and he had a career-low in catches (52) and receiving yards (570). He played in just nine games with the Saints in 2022 due to an ankle injury and sat out in 2023. Landry looked healthy on Friday and was pleased with his workout, but it remains to be seen if the Jags will add him as receiver depth in addition to Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis and first-round rookie Brian Thomas.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels didn't have any "wow" moments during his first rookie minicamp practice, but he still managed to impress fellow rookies and the coaching staff. "He's a stud," third-round receiver Luke McCaffrey said. "I know he's one heck of a quarterback and a lot of fun to play with from a personality standpoint. I've had a blast in these 24 hours with him. He's just fun to be around; he's good energy." Daniels was the No. 2 overall pick in last year's NFL draft and is expected to take over as the team's starter under center right away in Week 1 this fall. The 23-year-old former LSU Tiger is a dual-threat QB with plenty of athleticism, and he could be the most NFL-ready signal-caller of all the rookie QBs not named Caleb Williams. In Year 1, Daniels will be a low-end QB2 in fantasy with considerable upside for his rushing ability.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers rookie first-round wide receiver Xavier Legette, who was taken 32nd overall in this year's NFL draft last month, has had trouble connecting with the team's rookie quarterbacks so far in rookie minicamp practices. Legette has always had the size-speed combination -- his 4.39-second 40-yard dash tied for the sixth-fastest among wideouts at this year's scouting combine -- but he kept hearing that he had to improve as a route-runner as he took part in Senior Bowl practices and the combine. At 6-foot-1, 221 pounds, some questioned Legette's ability to drop his hips and quickly get out of his breaks. Legette has been compared physically to DK Metcalf, who Panthers head coach Dave Canales worked with in Seattle. At the very least, Legette will give second-year QB Bryce Young a speed, big-bodied target deep down the field in 2024, but expecting much more than that might be unwise in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders head coach Dan Quinn said that second-round rookie defensive tackle Jer'Zhan Newton (foot) has an injury to his left foot -- not the same foot as his college season but the same injury -- and has surgery scheduled for next week. "Not giving any timelines for that," Quinn said. The 21-year-old had surgery in January on his right foot to fix a partial Jones fracture, but now he'll be forced to undergo a similar surgery on his other foot. It's not what you want to hear from a high draft pick as they head into their first NFL offseason. It remains to be seen when Newton will be able to practice with the team. Any missed time in training camp this summer would be a big blow to his development as he looks to carve out a role on the interior of Washington's defensive line in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears rookie first-round wide receiver Rome Odunze (hamstring) is dealing with hamstring tightness and will sit out of Saturday's rookie minicamp practice. It's likely nothing to worry about in the long run, but it's also not a great start for Odunze as he looks to get going as a top-10 pick in this year's NFL draft. It's something to keep an eye on with the 21-year-old from Washington as we get deeper into the offseason and closer to training camp. The Bears took Odunze at No. 9 overall to give rookie quarterback Caleb Williams more weapons in the passing attack in addition to established veterans DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. Odunze was extremely productive in college and is ultra-athletic on the football field, but it's going to be tough for him to produce consistent numbers in Chicago's offense in his rookie season as long as both Moore and Allen stay healthy.
From RotoBaller
The Tennessee Titans signed first-round offensive tackle JC Latham to his four-year, fully-guaranteed rookie deal on Friday worth $26.04 million. The deal was confirmed by his agents Drew Rosenhaus, Ryan Matha and Jason Rosenhaus. The contract also includes the standard fifth-year player option for first-round picks. The 21-year-old offensive lineman was taken by the Titans with the seventh overall pick out of Alabama. He will be a huge upgrade for an offensive line that was in need of serious help this offseason and should start from Day 1 in his rookie season, at least at right tackle. The addition of Latham in 2024 should have an immediate positive impact in fantasy for young quarterback Will Levis and the rest of Tennessee's option as they enter their first season without workhorse back Derrick Henry.
From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos signed rookie quarterback Bo Nix to his rookie deal on Friday, according to a source. As is the case with all first-round selections, Nix will have a fifth-year team option attached to his first NFL contract. Needing to add more competition to their QB room this offseason after getting rid of Russell Wilson, the Broncos reached for Nix, the former Oregon signal-caller, with the 12th overall pick in last month's NFL draft. The Broncos have admitted that Nix could probably benefit from sitting and learning a year, but it's not like Denver already has a veteran starter in place. Nix, Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson will all compete for the starting gig in training camp and the preseason. At best, Nix would be a low-end QB2 in superflex leagues if he's starting out of the gates in Week 1 in 2024.
From RotoBaller
The Las Vegas Raiders signed veteran Gardner Minshew to a two-year, $25 million contract this offseason, yet 2023 fourth-round pick Aidan O'Connell is the early favorite to handle QB1 duties in 2024, according to head coach Antonio Pierce. "Aidan's earned the right to go out there and earn the first snap," Pierce said. "What he's done this offseason -- changing his body, his work ethic, being here every day, blocking out the outside noise. He's not worried about anything. I'm excited." O'Connell replaced Jimmy Garoppolo in the middle of last season and threw for 2,219 yards, 12 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. The team went 5-5 during his 10 starts. Although the job sounds like it's his to lose, Minshew will also likely have the chance to battle for the starting role this offseason. The 27-year-old has thrown for 59 touchdowns and 24 interceptions during his five-year career and has looked like at least a mid-level starter at times. Whoever wins the job will get to throw to Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Brock Bowers this year, so either could be a solid QB2 in Superflex formats.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins (Achilles) is working his way back from a Week 8 Achilles tear from last season, and reports out of Atlanta suggest he is making great progress. "Kirk is every day improving," Falcons head coach Raheem Morris said. "He's been doing all those things, he's been throwing, he's been out there pretty much full-go. Now, we got him in a limited basis, obviously 'cause he's still in his rehab and his treatment and all those types of things." The 35-year-old signal-caller has not been dropping back behind an offensive line or facing a rush, but he's evidently looked good on his dropbacks and reps with his new wide receiver group. Despite Atlanta selecting Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Cousins remains the clear starter in 2024 as long as he holds up. The four-time Pro Bowler has thrown for at least 4,000 yards seven times in his nine-year career as a starter, while the Falcons have not had a 4,000-yard passer since Matt Ryan in 2020. If Cousins isn't limited by his major injury, he'll remain a fringe QB1 option surrounded by Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney, and company.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent wide receiver Zay Jones is signing with the Arizona Cardinals, according to NFL insider Ian Rapoport. The 29-year-old went on visits with the Tennessee Titans and Dallas Cowboys this week, but he ultimately landed in a spot where he can compete for targets right away. Jones was released by the Jacksonville Jaguars after they selected LSU wideout Brian Thomas Jr. in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, but there's a real chance his situation is better in Arizona. Rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. is expected to occupy the WR1 role right away, but Jones is almost certainly slated to start in three-wide sets, and he might even beat out Michael Wilson to start in two-wide sets. He and tight end Trey McBride could battle it out to be Kyler Murray's No. 2 option in the passing game. Pencil in Jones as at least a deep league flex option in 2024.
From RotoBaller
The Carolina Panthers released veteran running back Tarik Cohen, who was attempting a comeback from a series of injuries that derailed his time as a Pro Bowl return man with the Chicago Bears. Cohen hasn't played in a regular-season game in the NFL since 2020, and it remains to be seen if he'll latch on with another club this offseason. The 28-year-old was a former fourth-round pick in 2017 by the Bears out of North Carolina A&T. He was never much of a ball-carrier at 5-foot-6, 181 pounds, but he excelled as a returner and as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. Cohen suffered an ACL tear in Week 3 of 2020 and also tore his Achilles in May of 2022. He spent most of last year on Carolina's practice squad but missed two months with a hamstring injury.
From RotoBaller
When asked who would be calling the team's offensive plays in 2024, Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson remained non-committal. "Don't play a game until September. So, we've got some time," Pederson said. Offensive coordinator Press Taylor was responsible for calling most of the team's plays in a disappointing 2023 season, so Pederson is seriously considering taking back those duties in 2024. A lot of the team's offensive struggles in the second half of last year had to do with the fact that quarterback Trevor Lawrence was playing injured, and that they were missing one of their top receivers in Christian Kirk. The Jaguars finished with 339.5 total yards per game (13th in the league) and 22.2 points per game (tied for 13th).
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said that wide receiver Gabe Davis (knee) is working through an injury, so the team hasn't been able to see much from him yet after adding him in free agency this offseason. Davis missed the postseason last year with the Buffalo Bills due to a knee injury that he suffered in the Week 18 season finale against the Miami Dolphins, and apparently it's still an issue. While we don't expect the injury to keep him from participating in training camp or being ready for the start of the 2024 season, it's bad news for a player looking to learn a new offense in Jacksonville. The 25-year-old is another strong offensive situation in Jacksonville, but he'll face competition for targets from Christian Kirk and Brian Thomas and tight end Evan Engram, likely making him a boom/bust fantasy option yet again.
From RotoBaller
