Wed Jan 26 10:40am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Samuel should get plenty of work
Wow, wow, wow. That is about all you can say about last week’s game. That might have been the greatest playoff weekend ever. Needless to say, this week has a lot to live up to. Hopefully, we can at least near those games. We’ll see. Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .
Josh Allen is so special. He had a game for the ages last week and lost. He had nine touchdowns without a turnover in the Bills two playoff games, showing he can come up big in the big game. Allen is a special, special player. At this point, I’m raking him first overall in my quarterback rankings for 2022. One thing that gets overlooked with Allen is his ability to make plays with his legs, rushing for 763 yard this season. This guy is as consistent it gets at the quarterback spot and is going to be a superstar for lots of years to come.
One player that is going to be intriguing next year is Gabriel Davis. He had one of the best games ever for a receiver in the playoffs, catching eight passes for 201 yards and four touchdowns. His stock is rising in a hurry, especially with Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley possibly gone next year. Davis should start opposite Stefon Diggs in the Bills explosive passing game. I’m not sure he is going to be a consistent play but expect plenty of big games. Plus, he is a great red-zone target because of his size and strength.
I think Tom Brady returns for one more season. He had a fantastic year once again and showed few signs of slowing down - if any. The Bucs were depleted at receiver by season’s end, so I think they reload there and give Brady one more shot to win it all. A healthy Chris Godwin and a new No. 3 to replace Antonio Brown would give Brady a big-time boost.
How do the Bucs let Cooper Kupp get behind him in the waning seconds of a tie game? I could not believe that one. I know Kupp is one of the best, so you can’t ignore that. But if I’m the Bucs, I do everything in my power to keep him in front of me to prevent a big play. I could not believe the end to that game. As for Kupp, he has 100-yard games six of his last eight games. He had one of the all-time great seasons for a receiver, so it was kind of a fitting end to this game for him.
And speaking of crazy finishes. You could second guess a lot with the end to that Bills/Chiefs, seeing a ton of points scored in a short time to send that game to overtime. The big one for me is seeing the Bills kick the ball into the end zone after they gook the lead with just 13 seconds left. I make the Chiefs run it back to run some time off the clock. I think they did them a favor by kicking it deep, giving Patrick Mahomes more time to do his thing. That was my big beef with how that played out. But even with that said, it was sure exciting to watch. Wow. That was probably the best football game I ever watched.
I had a hard time picking the games last week and am feeling the same way this week. These aren’t easy decisions. I have a hard time picking against the Chiefs right now, though. I never thought they would make three straight Super Bowls, but just can’t see the Bengals going on the road and winning that one. The Chiefs are playing their best football at the right time. And over in the NFC, I am going with the 49ers. They beat the Rams twice during the regular season and think they will make it a third time. San Francisco just seems a team of destiny. Their defense is playing great and I expect the offense, mainly the running game, to play much better this week. The Rams impressed last week, but I still don’t have total faith in Matthew Stafford. Maybe he showed me last week, but I don’t think the Rams run the ball well this week and Stafford will be forced to carry the offense against a very good 49ers defense.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce is red hot right now, having touchdowns five straight games. He also has 100-yard games two of those weeks. Kelce has 23-plus fantasy points two straight and three of five. He is setup to find the end zone again this week against the Bengals. Cincinnati struggles to stop the tight end, allowing the sixth most fantasy points to tight ends during the regular season.
Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers. Samuel just keeps getting it done on a weekly basis. He has touchdowns three of four games. He has 20-plus fantasy points nine times this season. His rushing numbers make him a force at the receiver spot, producing as a dual threat for all his fantasy owners. Samuel had huge success in two games against the Rams this season. Samuel had 300 total yards and three touchdowns, catching nine passes. He should be heavily involved in the 49ers game plan.
Cam Akers, RB, Rams. Akers is back and looks to be the clear lead back for the Rams. He ran the ball 24 times last week and has 41 carries in the Rams two playoff games. Unfortunately, the Rams running game isn’t opening many holes for him right now. Akers has 41 carries for just 103 yards in those two games. And things won’t get much easier for him this week against the 49ers. The 49ers held the Rams to 116-rushing yards in two games this year. Ie might be more of the same for Akers.
Elijah Mitchell, RB, 49ers. Mitchell had a breakout season, emerging as the lead back for the 49ers and having much success in that role. His lack of work in the passing game holds him back little, though, especially in games against a team that does well in holding down the run. He faces one of those teams this week, the Rams. Los Angeles held Mitchell to fewer than double-digit fantasy points in each of their games this year. Mitchell got 20-plus carries in each game but couldn’t crack double-digit points despite the work. He might be tough sledding for him again this week.
Byron Pringle, WR, Chiefs. Pringle has really emerged as a consistent threat in the Chiefs passing game. He has five receptions three straight games. And he has at least five catches four of five games. He also has three touchdowns in two playoff games this year. Patrick Mahomes has more trust in him and is looking his way a lot more often. He could be a good play again this week in a game that could be very high scoring once again.
Tyler Boyd, WR, Bengals. Boyd can disappear at times in this offense with two top weapons to compete with for targets this year. But he has still produced some big games this year. He is more than capable. He has touchdowns four of five games. He also has three games with 20-plus fantasy points. The Chiefs allowed Cole Beasley to have six receptions for 60 yards last week. Beasley plays a similar position to Boyd, so that bodes well for Boyd to have some success in this matchup.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Bengals/Chiefs, 49ers/Rams.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at firstname.lastname@example.org. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Dynasty | Rookie running back Jerome Ford scored once as a rusher and again as a receiver in his first action of the pre-season. Dynasty Analysis: Ford rushed for 57 yards on 10 carries, though a majority of his yardage came from 41-yard scamper. He also reeled in 4-of-5 as a receiver, scoring another touchdown. Found as DLF's rookie RB13, Ford hasn't gone unnoticed by the dynasty community even as the team's projected third back behind starters Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. In fact, with Chubb's name starting to percolate as a "sell now" asset and Hunt possibly not in the team's long term plans, Ford could rise quickly under the right circumstances. With an NFL profile, Jerome Ford is a well-valued acquisition target for patient dynasty coaches.
Jets quarterback Zach Wilson exited the team's first preseason game following a non-contact knee injury. Word is he has a bone bruise and meniscus tear and is expected to miss 2-4 weeks. Wilson will undergo arthroscopic surgery to address and correct the injury. The Jets consider this fortunate news.
Dynasty | Packers quarterback Jordan Love had an up-and-down game in the team's first preseason action. Dynasty Analysis: Head coach Matt LeFleur removed Love from blame on two of the three interceptions citing multiple factors but, regardless, Love's performance was inconsistent at best. The third-year quarterback also threw two touchdowns, including one to surging rookie receiver Romeo Doubs, and amassed 176 passing yards in the loss. It's Love's first preseason action on his way to what is expected to be very few snaps in 2022. Unranked on DLF, Jordan Love is no better than a free agent stash in deep-roster formats.
Dynasty | Packers rookie receiver Romeo Doubs secured his first touchdown in the Packers first preseason contest vs. the 49ers. Dynasty Analysis: Doubs totaled 45 yards on 3-of-7 receiving, including the first touchdown of his career. This wouldn't normally be news noteworthy but given that Doubs is a candidate as the fastest rising rookie of 2022, the performance is certain to keep social media buzzing. Doubs, DLF's WR102, continues to see uplift in his dynasty value and will be one to watch as the preseason continues to unfold.
Dynasty | 49ers quarterback Trey Lance was solid in limited snaps in the team's first action of the preseason Dynasty Analysis: Lance totaled 92 yards on 4-of-5 passing, highlighted by a 76 yard touchdown to rookie Danny Gray in the first quarter. Other than that, Lance's performance was nondescript but was generally a positive first game. Lance will continue to be a hot item to watch as the preseason unfolds and is found as DLF's QB8, showing that the dynasty community holds high expectations for the second-year player.
Dynasty | Flacons rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder was solid in his first preseason action Dynasty Analysis: It was a good first performance for the rookie who was often off-target on his way to 103 yards and two touchdowns on 10-of-22 passing. At the same time, he was interception free and also displayed mobility, rushing for 59 yards on six attempts. Marcus Mariota is entrenched as the starter but all eyes remain on Ridder and it will be no surprise to see the rookie see time under-center if the team gets off to a slow start to begin the season. Ridder is listed as DLF's QB30, displaying that Mariota is only believed to be a short-term placeholder.
Dynasty | 49ers sophomore running back Elijah Mitchell is nursing a hamstring injury and likely won't see action in the preseason Dynasty Analysis: It's yet another new injury for Mitchell who carries high expectations from the dynasty community. At the same time, Mitchell has shown less durability than desired and his RB22 status won't rise until he shows he can remain off the trainer's table. Following knee surgery earlier this year, the hope was for Mitchell to build momentum into the regular season, but now the hamstring injury fuels further concern about the team's deployment of a true RBBC approach. Mitchell has fine upside should he handle the lion's share of the touches but the team has a deep stable of runners and appears ready to use them all.
San Francisco 49ers running back Elijah Mitchell (hamstring) is expected to miss the entire preseason. Mitchell has been limited during training camp while he recovers from knee surgery. This hamstring issue is a new problem that will probably sideline him until Week 1. Fantasy managers could see Mitchell limited to begin the season, but this shouldn't be a long term problem. Trey Sermon, Tyrion Davis-Price, and Jeff Wilson Jr. will split up the reps until Mitchell is back on the field.
Cincinnati Bengals kicker Evan McPherson doesn't appear to have lost a step heading into the 2022 campaign. The fifth-round kicker had a surprising breakout campaign last season. Now, there is more pressure on McPherson with everyone watching as he has become one of the more reliable kickers in the game. On Friday, McPherson connected on all three of his field goal attempts in the preseason loss to the Arizona Cardinals. His long on the day was a 58-yarder, so he appears to be in mid-season form. It looks like McPherson is going to be one of the better kicking options in fantasy leagues once again.
Carolina Panthers quarterback Baker Mayfield will make the start under center during Saturday's preseason matchup against the Washington Commanders. It sounds like Mayfield will play the first series before Sam Darnold takes over. The two of them have been splitting up the reps during training camp. Right now, it appears Mayfield has the edge over Darnold, but things can quickly change. Fantasy managers shouldn't be too interested in who wins this competition. Whoever it is will likely be a low-end QB2 most weeks anyway. It's tough to imagine either quarterback taking the next step and becoming a star this season.
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Jake Browning completed 13-of-24 passes for 190 yards and gained 14 rushing yards on four carries in Friday's preseason 36-23 loss against the Arizona Cardinals. He saw extended action on Friday after a concussion knocked Brandon Allen out of the game. The 26-year-old averaged 7.9 yards per attempt but didn't lead the Bengals offense to their first touchdown of the game in the fourth quarter. If Allen misses any regular season games, Browning could be Cincinnati's top backup quarterback to Joe Burrow.
Cincinnati Bengals running back Chris Evans rushed for minus three yards on eight carries while catching his only target for nine yards in Friday's 36-23 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. The 24-year-old drew the start with both Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine being held out. He logged 14 snaps but could not muster any positive yards with his eight rushing attempts. However, Evans did have a 75-yard touchdown run called back due to a penalty. Evans is currently third on the RB depth chart and will compete with Perine to be Mixon's primary backup in 2022. The Michigan product is worth a late-round flyer as he could have a vital role in an explosive offense if Mixon were to go down with an injury.
Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiverZay Jonescaught two of four targets for 47 yards in Friday's 24-13 preseason loss to the Cleveland Browns. Jones flashed his growing rapport withTrevor Lawrenceearly on as he hauled in a 32-yard catch on the first pass the Jaguars attempted. The former second-round pick signed with Jacksonville this past offseason in hopes of becoming a reliable weapon for Lawrence in the team's aerial attack. WhileChristian KirkandMarvin Jones Jr.are considered safer options at wide receiver, fantasy managers shouldn't overlook Jones in the Jaguars' new-look offense.
Jacksonville Jaguars tight endEvan Engramcaught one of two targets for nine yards and a touchdown during Friday's 24-13 preseason defeat to the Cleveland Browns. On Jacksonville's final drive with the starters on the field, quarterback Trevor Lawrence found Engram on a fourth-down play to give the Jaguars their only touchdown of the contest. The athletic tight end is primed to be a go-to weapon for the second-year quarterback if he can put his drop issues behind him. For fantasy managers that are buying into Jacksonville's offense being much better in 2022, Engram doesn't carry many risks in fantasy football due to his late-round ADP.
Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiverTim Jonescaught five passes for 42 yards on a team-high seven targets in Friday's 24-13 preseason loss to the Cleveland Browns. It was a nice bounce-back performance from Jones after he recorded only one reception for four yards in the Hall of Fame Game against the Las Vegas Raiders a week ago. The undrafted wideout out of Southern Miss is competing for a roster spot at a position that is now suddenly deep on the Jaguars following the signings ofChristian KirkandZay Jones. If Jones can string together a couple more productive outings in the preseason, there's a chance he will carve out a depth role in 2022.
Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Greg Dortch caught four passes for 53 yards on eight targets in the team's preseason opener on Friday night. The 24-year-old only trailed Andy Isabella in terms of yardage in this one, with his longest catch going for 30 yards. Dortch saw just three targets all of last season, so it is hard to envision him having a role in the Arizona offense that is headlined by wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore, and A.J. Green. The Wake Forest product flashed some of his ability in this one, but he will remain off the fantasy radar for now.
Arizona Cardinals running back Eno Benjamin carried the ball five times for 14 yards in Friday night's preseason win over the Cincinnati Bengals. The 23-year-old didn't have the best showing in this one, but his roster spot looks to be secure as reports out of training camp have been nothing but positive. Benjamin has a real shot to work as the team's RB2 behind James Conner, but he will also need to fight off Darrel Williams for touches. With Chase Edmonds departing in the offseason, there is a significant role in the Arizona offense up for grabs. That in itself is a good reason to consider Benjamin with a late-round flier if he is able to lock up the No. 2 spot on the depth chart.
Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Andy Isabella led the team with four catches for 57 yards in Friday's preseason opener. The speedy wideout is looking to carve out a role in a crowded wide receiver room, which may be a tall task when you consider the likes of DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore, and A.J. Green are in the mix for targets. The 25-year-old saw just one target in eight games last season, so it is hard to envision him having any sort of role in the Arizona offense. He is well off the fantasy radar as we inch closer to the regular season.
Arizona Cardinals running back Keaontay Ingram carried the ball seven times for 27 yards and a touchdown while adding two catches for 18 yards in Friday's 36-23 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. The rookie's longest run went for 11 yards as he led the team in carries in the preseason opener. After a solid showing, it still looks like Ingram could find himself with limited playing time heading into the 2022 season as the Arizona backfield is extremely crowded. James Conner, Darrel Williams, and Eno Benjamin are ahead of him in line for touches, so the 22-year-old out of USC is well off the fantasy radar in redraft formats.
Arizona Cardinals running back Jonathan Ward finished Friday's preseason opener with six carries for 15 yards and two touchdowns while adding two receptions for an additional 26 yards. Ward finished with the second-most carries in this one, trailing only rookie Keaontay Ingram. The 24-year-old had a decent showing in his limited workload, but a crowded Cardinals running back room makes it an uphill battle for him to earn any significant playing time. With James Conner, Darrel Williams, Eno Benjamin, and Ingram all in the mix, Ward is well off the fantasy radar for now.